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8101  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning to bears: Big players in China on: March 05, 2013, 03:54:58 PM
Consider also that the Chinese economy has some underlying issues itself and that it appears to be experiencing some serious bubbles. A reliable store of wealth could be just what smart people are looking for. I bet gold is hard to own there too.

http://sovereignlife.com/blog/2010/chinese-government-encourages-gold-buying/
8102  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silver at 29 ,Bitcoin at 30. this is no-brainer.. on: March 05, 2013, 12:59:37 PM
Net worth <$10k = 100% BTC
$10 - $100k = 50% BTC, 50% silver
$100 - $500k = 25% BTC, 50% silver, 25% gold
$500k - $5M = maximum 5-10k BTC, rest split up 50/50 in silver & gold
more = have fun Smiley

I wonder why you're suggesting less BTC holdings in absulute terms for high-net-worth people than for the lowest-net-worth category?

I meant 5000-10000 BTC Smiley

Because I see not much point in holding more regardless how wealthy you are.
8103  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silver at 29 ,Bitcoin at 30. this is no-brainer.. on: March 05, 2013, 12:53:29 PM
Take a look at the short run..

Oh no, silver is not for the short run. It will be around longer than bitcoin for sure Smiley
8104  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silver at 29 ,Bitcoin at 30. this is no-brainer.. on: March 05, 2013, 11:31:05 AM
Stack both silver and BTC, they're both fantastic and complement each other. Silver was money in the US as recently as 1964 so it's easy to convey it's intrinsic value to the uninitiated. Then when(not if) the gold to silver ratio(currently 55:1) gets back to historic norms(15:1) you can swap some of your silver for gold.

+1.

In fact, assuming that your cashflow is positive, I would suggest for now:

Net worth <$10k = 100% BTC
$10 - $100k = 50% BTC, 50% silver
$100 - $500k = 25% BTC, 50% silver, 25% gold
$500k - $5M = maximum 5-10k BTC, rest split up 50/50 in silver & gold
more = have fun Smiley





8105  Economy / Speculation / Re: Do you think the rally is over now... or very soon? on: March 05, 2013, 11:25:50 AM
nobody thinks this is the time to buy

Y'know son...

Nobody thinks this is the time to sell. That is why the market is rising.

When it is going down, then your assumption makes sense.
8106  Economy / Speculation / Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up on: March 05, 2013, 11:18:58 AM
You're absolutely wrong. It will fall back to $34.72. So there

Doesn't seem so scary to me. That was roughly the all-time high just a few hours ago.


We will never go to $34.72 ever. Those cheap coins will never return.

This post of not-so-many hours ago.. Cheesy Prophetic.

..I'm currently offering 6.09:1 that it will not be below $35 next Friday. Take the opportunity to bet at
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149083.0

8107  Bitcoin / Project Development / Re: [OSX] BTCPrice Ticker for OSX Menu Bar on: March 05, 2013, 09:06:51 AM
How do you install it? In this matter, I have for the last 20 years been a n00b Wink
8108  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: March 05, 2013, 08:43:51 AM
Stop and think for a moment.

I know it seems so long ago but we just blew by silver with nary a heartbeat.

We are now experiencing the Slingshot Effect.  Do you really think silver will still go parabolic?

With silver there is a different market in physical and paper. Paper may go parabolic even when physical is in oversupply, and vice versa. In 1980 there was a paper silver spike with a glut on physical. In 2008 physical was mostly inobtainable and I could sell it for 2,5 times the paper silver price (whenever I found it in the supply network).

Even now there are signs of a physical shortage in silver. During the last 2 years more and more digits have been added to the market, and silver has gone down. Anything can happen, and I await for 1-2 more spikes in silver before the uptrend is consummated. Silver follows gold, and gold looks tame but the real action as always is behind the scenes.

Before bitcoin, silver was the ultimate parabolic bet. After the recent events in bitcoin, silver may be relegated to a lesser role, to conform to gold more.

There is a place for each in every portfolio that is larger than $0.5M. For people with less, I would suggest bitcoin first and then increasing amounts of silver. At $0.5M you start adding gold in even larger amounts.


8109  Economy / Speculation / Re: Irrational exuberance is going to dry up on: March 04, 2013, 08:52:14 PM
You're absolutely wrong. It will fall back to $34.72. So there

Doesn't seem so scary to me. That was roughly the all-time high just a few hours ago.


We will never go to $34.72 ever. Those cheap coins will never return.
8110  Bitcoin / Project Development / Playable Alpha: USD/BTC binary options market on: March 04, 2013, 08:27:50 PM
CLOSED FOR WAGERS

One test round was organized between March 2.-8. The playable Alpha is now CLOSED.

This thread discusses the development of the automated system that we hope will come online in some form in April.


Hi, I am developing the following service: binary options for USD/BTC exchange rate.

This is basically betting whether the rate in some future point of time is above or below the target. You either win 1 BTC/contract, or you lose. When you make the bet, you must pay some fraction of BTC as the wager.

Binary options complement the options that are currently traded in other exchanges. If the possible outcomes have reasonable granularity (I aim to have them at $1 intervals) and contract size is small enough (.001 BTC), binary options can simulate all other type of options contracts.

The options trading would feature:
- Native BTC business, no currencies allowed, accounting in BTC
- Betting by sending BTC to a particular address, winnings paid to same address, no identification of customer
- Simple website for easy betting, comprehensive trading centre for tailoring your own contract
- Contract expiration and payout every Friday
- All betting against the house, good liquidity and fixed spreads for all contracts
- No secondary market for contracts, but you can buy an offsetting bet at a cheaper price if you want to close position

I have background in gold and silver trade since 2006 and have been involved in bitcoin since 2011. I have several multimillion euro companies in Finland and Estonia (AAA). I am active in Finnish bitcoin scene and have access to 1000s of bitcoins to back this up.


I developed a playable alpha of the options market. The link is: http://hopea.fi/bitcoin-options/

Current features:
- Expires next Friday
- 10 outcomes to choose from (or any combination thereof)
- Easy to use Excel contract generator
- 5 BTC maximum

Please play! Smiley I understand if my post count does not qualify for a trustable person, so I am willing to escrow up to the maximum payout (currently: 7 BTC) with somebody more trustable.

I will write OPEN FOR WAGERS in this thread whenever the casino is open. When somebody posts a contract, the casino closes until I manually update the rates and write OPEN FOR WAGERS. So there will (hopefully) be only short windows when you can make bets.


8111  Economy / Speculation / Re: Sorry to inform you, the current rally is over now... or very soon. on: February 28, 2013, 09:44:17 PM
Please post any chart from ANY financial market in modern or ancient history that shows a massive, dramatic upward spike without a sharp correction.
Good luck finding one.

There is none. But what you cannot know beforehand is the magnitude of the spike. Today we are talking about +200% in two months. Remember late 2010? At $1 bitcoin was screaming overbought, yet it decided to go up another 30-fold before the dramatic correction.

That is akin to going to $1000 in the following 5 months. Now THAT is something Smiley
8112  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is it a good idea to buy Bitcoin now at $29? on: February 28, 2013, 05:32:26 AM

Hey! proudhon removed his "I predict single digits in 2013" tagline.

ok, NOW I sell..
8113  Economy / Speculation / Re: The "Vladimir Club" on: February 27, 2013, 07:28:27 PM
How many do you think are eligible for the club today? I would think it is far less than 5000 individuals, maybe closer to 500.. Undecided
8114  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silver at 29 ,Bitcoin at 30. this is no-brainer.. on: February 27, 2013, 06:43:13 PM
i think you've got it all wrong.

Please elaborate. Always willing to listen other professionals Smiley
8115  Economy / Speculation / Re: Silver at 29 ,Bitcoin at 30. this is no-brainer.. on: February 27, 2013, 03:08:28 PM
The liquidity in silver will dry up very easily, if the crisis hits. Already in 1999 the physical was almost out and 2008 it was in a serious shortage. The key to understanding this is to know that exchanges around the world deal only with about 200 Moz of actual silver, and the coinshops come second. 99% of the world's silver is not in any liquid form and will be unavailable to investors should something happen.

If it is a reasonable thing to secure your share of the world's bitcoins, so is it with silver. I am delighted to see that bitcoin folks generally favor silver second only to bitcoin, and silver (&gold) people are flocking to bitcoins. This is a great synergy Smiley
8116  Economy / Speculation / Re: Afraid to miss the market crash? on: February 26, 2013, 01:47:05 PM
My friends are either (in descending order of number of people):
- Never owned any, not interested in buying regardless, and waiting "for the bubble to burst"
- Never owned any, eagerly awaiting a reliable service through which to buy and store coins
- Never owned any, eagerly awaiting for a pullback but determined on buying sooner or later
- Sold out temporarily and waiting for an opportunity to buy back
- Accumulating steadily, regardless of the price
- Fully invested and planning to sell only to meet expenses or a small fraction of holdings in legendary bubble situations (eg. my friend who sold some in 2011 to buy a farm).

I don't know of anyone who has bought for the purpose of making a quick buck and is still holding. They made their buck already. That breed of people usually aim for 20% profit.
8117  Economy / Speculation / Re: I call myself out of this game. on: February 25, 2013, 01:58:45 PM
You never know whether cashing out was profitable, until you have squandered away all the money. Before that, it's always speculation, and fortunes do change.
8118  Economy / Speculation / Re: Is it a good idea to buy Bitcoin now at $29? on: February 25, 2013, 01:44:13 PM
Alright, back from the weekend and ready to watch the correction intensify.

Yes, the correction is surely coming, since none of my friends anymore has bitcoins, and we want to buy more.
8119  Economy / Speculation / Re: RAAAALLLLLLLLLLYYYYYYY!! on: February 25, 2013, 12:06:57 PM
Is there anybody left who has coins to sell?
8120  Economy / Speculation / Re: Warning to bears: Big players in China on: February 25, 2013, 11:37:48 AM
We should get Kim Jong Un hooked on Bitcoin, he strikes me as the right type.

Actually who is there to stop all kinds of unwanted people from parking a significant portion of their assets in bitcoins? If I were one, I would be glad to sell USD.

Kind of waiting for the strategic acquisition race, when it finally starts in its earnest Cheesy
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