Between Sept and Nov 2011, mining difficulty decreased about twofold in the wake of ~75% plunge in BTC price (from ~8 to $2).
Right now, we already have network hashing speed down to 229Ph from 330Ph (~30% decrease) following $320 to $230 plunge (a fast ~28% decrease in price).
In conclusion, network hash will probably decrease to ~150-160Ph if and when BTC drops to $160-170. perhaps, this would be a bottom just as it was in 2011.
The lowest BTC can go within so far observed bear markets is ~$72-84 ( similar percentage to 2011), not that would be very desirable.
I am have trouble seeing network speed at 229Ph I find some est. at 289ph and at 273ph As to how low can the coin drop? I wonder if it could go under 100. I did purchase some at 237 usd today. It was 229 on my zeroblock app, maybe they posted wrong number, although I expect it to go down 30% or maybe even up to 50% in the next few weeks. I am done with buying for now, only passively accumulate BTC through mining. |
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It is becoming clear that this correction is not finished.
In my opinion, this cycle, which resembles 2011, will bottom only once the highest cost bitcoin mines are driven out of business.
In 2011, market price bottomed just before hashing rate had finished its 50% decline.
Since it will take some time and duration for this decline to manifest itself, I predict that it (price bottom) will happen in ~3-4 mo, or even later because large scale miners would have some operational inertia.
As indicative of this, hashing rate increases are slowing to a crawl, but we need at least about ~50% difficulty decrease, which will be achieved if we slowly decline to somewhere between $72 and $240. $72 is somewhat extreme and would correspond to the same decline %%-wise as in 2011, but $240 is quite realistic and would be extremely painful if it will occur slowly.
Having said that, I am not selling my BTC yet because timing this process exactly is beyond my trading abilities.
^^^^Hey, check out my prediction made in October...SOB. WSJ agrees...in January. http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/01/13/bitbeat-bitcoins-price-mining-hashrate-reflect-unsynchronized-bubbles/ |
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sadness.
replaced the stock fans with Noctua NF-F12 iPPC-3000 PWM 120mm
and fired my 2 miners up.
first miner : 58c/54c
second miner : 69c/68c
i realy dont feel like repasting everything :|
anyone else had batches with huge temp differences ?
no, I got the same (~60C) on two of mine with the same fan. Typically, it works only at 325mhz setting only, though. Did you plug the connector correctly? I had to clip off one of the plastic rails for it to fit better. In addition, one of the fans that I ordered from amazon was actually 2000rpm instead of 3000rpm. It said 2000rpm on the box and 3000rpm on the sticker-check it out-I had them replace it. |
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you need a 4 pin, you can get delta 120mm fans from ebay for about 60% off that cost. Go to delta's website and pick from the catalog and go on ebay and search the model you want. I have suggested foxconn fans, they can be had for $9 a pop. they do up to 3500 rpm and 150 cfm. So, I ordered a few fans to compare, one of them was this one. For info. even though the newegg.com site states 2.45A = about 30 watts which is the limit for most fan controllers, this one on the back is actually labeled 3.24A = about 40 watts. Probably would burn out the fan header on the S5 if you hooked it up directly. Also, this fan is powerful and loud. Believe it or not, this fan is even louder than the original one that comes with the S5. yes, this looks like a hurricane (250CFM!). It looks like it comes with 3 pin connector which you can only connect through adapter to molex chain on PSU, not to pins on the miner. I found another two "monsters' if you want to go for the maximum flow and don't care about sound: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Free-Shipping-Delta-120mm-12cm-PWM-TFC1212DE-252CFM-12038-DC-12V-cooling-fans-/171630309537and http://www.ebay.com/itm/Delta-120-mm-5500-RPM-PWM-TFC1212DE-12V-DC-Fan-S1-S2-S3-S4-Brand-New-/271666540843the same fans, but one is coming directly from china and will take much longer. same on amazon: http://www.amazon.com/Delta-TFC1212DE-PWM-120mm-Speed-Sensor/dp/B008NZSUPQ/ref=sr_1_fkmr1_3?s=electronics&ie=UTF8&qid=1421099823With these fans you can probably set a record in S5 speed-I am sure that there are quite a few people here who might try  These fans are about the same at the the newegg one. If you notice the flow is slightly more, but the static pressure is the same. That's probably because the blades of the Delta on newegg is the width of almost 38mm, while the others on eBay you listed are about 25mm with with a 12mm flow director on the back. So no need to try those, they are the same as the one that comes with the S5 but with a higher rpm. If you've got $125 each for a fan, here's the ultimate I could find, posted this a couple days ago. You'll need a 140mm to 120mm adapter for the 6,000rpm, 410cfm fan. "So noise isn't a factor, you want the most extreme. Here's a laugh. Get 2 of these ebm papst http://int.rsdelivers.com/product/ebm-papst/5312-2tdhp/dc-axial-fan-1396-x-1396-x-508mm-410m-h-43w-12-v-dc-5300-series/0557672.aspx in push/pull and a pair of these http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16811995076 " Cool, get all of them, get deaf, then it wouldn't matter when "bitcoin" goes to whatever whether will it make a sound or not-I wouldn't be able to hear it! hey, this is not the first time I wasted a bit of money on something and enjoyed doing it. YOLO. |
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Between Sept and Nov 2011, mining difficulty decreased about twofold in the wake of ~75% plunge in BTC price (from ~8 to $2).
Right now, we already have network hashing speed down to 229Ph from 330Ph (~30% decrease) following $320 to $230 plunge (a fast ~28% decrease in price).
In conclusion, network hash will probably decrease to ~150-160Ph if and when BTC drops to $160-170. perhaps, this would be a bottom just as it was in 2011.
The lowest BTC can go within so far observed bear markets is ~$72-84 ( similar percentage to 2011), not that would be very desirable.
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you need a 4 pin, you can get delta 120mm fans from ebay for about 60% off that cost. Go to delta's website and pick from the catalog and go on ebay and search the model you want. I have suggested foxconn fans, they can be had for $9 a pop. they do up to 3500 rpm and 150 cfm. So, I ordered a few fans to compare, one of them was this one. For info. even though the newegg.com site states 2.45A = about 30 watts which is the limit for most fan controllers, this one on the back is actually labeled 3.24A = about 40 watts. Probably would burn out the fan header on the S5 if you hooked it up directly. Also, this fan is powerful and loud. Believe it or not, this fan is even louder than the original one that comes with the S5. yes, this looks like a hurricane (250CFM!). It looks like it comes with 3 pin connector which you can only connect through adapter to molex chain on PSU, not to pins on the miner. I found another two "monsters' if you want to go for the maximum flow and don't care about sound: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Free-Shipping-Delta-120mm-12cm-PWM-TFC1212DE-252CFM-12038-DC-12V-cooling-fans-/171630309537and http://www.ebay.com/itm/Delta-120-mm-5500-RPM-PWM-TFC1212DE-12V-DC-Fan-S1-S2-S3-S4-Brand-New-/271666540843the same fans, but one is coming directly from china and will take much longer. same on amazon: http://www.amazon.com/Delta-TFC1212DE-PWM-120mm-Speed-Sensor/dp/B008NZSUPQ/ref=sr_1_fkmr1_3?s=electronics&ie=UTF8&qid=1421099823With these fans you can probably set a record in S5 speed-I am sure that there are quite a few people here who might try |
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Stock fan produces ~69db, which is not typically tolerable in the house (apart from basement, attic, garage, shed)
Fan play to have as much hash as possible while maintaing low dB:
~30C ambient
1. Noctua 3000 PWM ($24.5, 110CFM, up to 3000rpm, just 41dB) in push position: ~59-61C at 325mhz, 1070Gh; less stable at 350mhz.
2. Scythe Ultra KAZE ($15.3, 130CFM, 3000rpm, 46dB) in push position via molex adapter-worse than Noctua, temp rising close to 65C at 325mhz, discontinued. Strange result as this fan has nominally higher CFM than Noctua.
3. Noctua in push, Scythe in pull (connected to molex through included adapter), up to 337.5 mhz is stable (1100 Gh).
Conclusion: adding Scythe ($15) in pull might be not worth it as it adds just ~30gh.
I simply taped Scythe to exhaust in pull orientation because could not find proper screws yet.
Question: anybody knows what are the characteristics/dimensions of the machine screws Bitmain is using for fans? They seem to be in between 3 and 4mmX42mm, but I wasn't able to find such screws easily. They are not 3X40mm for sure. Anybody have a link?
Hi, the screw we're using for fans is PM4*42. Thanks, but it is a little cryptic. What is PM? The search for "PM4*42" or "PM4*42 screws" returns nothing relevant. can you point to the source that is readily available in the United States? Amazon, ebay, grainger, english version of alibaba (less optimal because of long delivery time), etc. Philips head (or maybe pan?), M4 thread, 42mm long. Thanks, guys. In the US they are M4-.70 x 40 without the fan grille and M4-.70 x 45 with the fan grille. Mine are Hillman brand, got them at Lowe's.
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would you rather buy into an ETF after a huge correction with lots of upside potential or in the middle of nowhere?
No, I don't care about the ETF, although it might become useful for hedging BTC at some point. |
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some SP20 pr0n for you: >snip image< got an EVGA 1600w PSU sitting at home waiting to plug in - I think I'll need another PSU of not massive wattage to get all 4 going  It has 14 PCIe plugs, right? So, you need just another PSU with at least two plugs, but i would just get EVGA 1300; this way you can downclock to ~700W/1250-1270Gh. However, if you want to downclock, the trick would be how to downclock them with just one or two PSU. You would have to do it one by one, bring to stable hash, then switch off and do another. what is to the left of them-it looks interesting. |
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Forget the ETF, years away if ever.
that's good, I don't like the ETF idea in the first place. Maybe the whole 'experiment' is shutting down? Would be a lot of waste of people's time and money, but it would not be the first time it happens. |
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On this photo you see the stock S5 fan. You can replace my Navipower HDB-1212UA with any 120 mm fan which: 0) has 3 or 4 pin connector and better if it is PWM fan (you should cut one leading plastic sliding rail in case of 3-pin connector); 1) can spin at 2500-2800 rpm (Schytche Ultra Case maybe?); 2) can provide 100-130 CFM airflow (many of forum members are using Delta fans); 3) as quiet as possible amongst meeting the above conditions fans. It was hard to find an airflow value for this fan, but I did it, I found it in some chinese catalogue. It says that this fan gives 105.81 CFM and spins at 2800 rpm, but miner's GUI displays 2400 rpm. PM me if you need help searching such fan(s).  Scythe Ultra Kaze did not work well in push orientation-see my post on main S5 board. |
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Stock fan produces ~69db, which is not typically tolerable in the house (apart from basement, attic, garage, shed)
Fan play to have as much hash as possible while maintaing low dB:
~30C ambient
1. Noctua 3000 PWM ($24.5, 110CFM, up to 3000rpm, just 41dB) in push position: ~59-61C at 325mhz, 1070Gh; less stable at 350mhz.
2. Scythe Ultra KAZE ($15.3, 130CFM, 3000rpm, 46dB) in push position via molex adapter-worse than Noctua, temp rising close to 65C at 325mhz, discontinued. Strange result as this fan has nominally higher CFM than Noctua.
3. Noctua in push, Scythe in pull (connected to molex through included adapter), up to 337.5 mhz is stable (1100 Gh).
Conclusion: adding Scythe ($15) in pull might be not worth it as it adds just ~30gh.
I simply taped Scythe to exhaust in pull orientation because could not find proper screws yet.
Question: anybody knows what are the characteristics/dimensions of the machine screws Bitmain is using for fans? They seem to be in between 3 and 4mmX42mm, but I wasn't able to find such screws easily. They are not 3X40mm for sure. Anybody have a link?
Hi, the screw we're using for fans is PM4*42. Thanks, but it is a little cryptic. What is PM? The search for "PM4*42" or "PM4*42 screws" returns nothing relevant. can you point to the source that is readily available in the United States? Amazon, ebay, grainger, english version of alibaba (less optimal because of long delivery time), etc. |
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Stock fan produces ~69db, which is not typically tolerable in the house (apart from basement, attic, garage, shed)
Fan play to have as much hash as possible while maintaing low dB:
~30C ambient
1. Noctua 3000 PWM ($24.5, 110CFM, up to 3000rpm, just 41dB) in push position: ~59-61C at 325mhz, 1070Gh; less stable at 350mhz.
2. Scythe Ultra KAZE ($15.3, 130CFM, 3000rpm, 46dB) in push position via molex adapter-worse than Noctua, temp rising close to 65C at 325mhz, discontinued. Strange result as this fan has nominally higher CFM than Noctua.
3. Noctua in push, Scythe in pull (connected to molex through included adapter), up to 337.5 mhz is stable (1100 Gh).
Conclusion: adding Scythe ($15) in pull might be not worth it as it adds just ~30gh.
I simply taped Scythe to back because could not find proper screws yet.
Question: anybody knows what are the characteristics/dimensions of the machine screws Bitmain is using for fans? They seem to be in between 3 and 4mmX42mm, but I wasn't able to find such screws easily. They are not 3X40mm for sure. Anybody have a link?
Out of curiosity, what weighting did you use when you measured the SPL of the fans? what is SPL? I am not familiar with this term. Sound pressure level. It's the dBs you got. stock I measured with iPhone app at 1m distance, cannot do the same with Noctua and Scythe because I have other miners (SP20) in the same room, so I used numbers from the tech description and/or Amazon description. |
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Stock fan produces ~69db, which is not typically tolerable in the house (apart from basement, attic, garage, shed)
Fan play to have as much hash as possible while maintaing low dB:
~30C ambient
1. Noctua 3000 PWM ($24.5, 110CFM, up to 3000rpm, just 41dB) in push position: ~59-61C at 325mhz, 1070Gh; less stable at 350mhz.
2. Scythe Ultra KAZE ($15.3, 130CFM, 3000rpm, 46dB) in push position via molex adapter-worse than Noctua, temp rising close to 65C at 325mhz, discontinued. Strange result as this fan has nominally higher CFM than Noctua.
3. Noctua in push, Scythe in pull (connected to molex through included adapter), up to 337.5 mhz is stable (1100 Gh).
Conclusion: adding Scythe ($15) in pull might be not worth it as it adds just ~30gh.
I simply taped Scythe to back because could not find proper screws yet.
Question: anybody knows what are the characteristics/dimensions of the machine screws Bitmain is using for fans? They seem to be in between 3 and 4mmX42mm, but I wasn't able to find such screws easily. They are not 3X40mm for sure. Anybody have a link?
Out of curiosity, what weighting did you use when you measured the SPL of the fans? what is SPL? I am not familiar with this term. |
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Stock fan produces ~69db, which is not typically tolerable in the house (apart from basement, attic, garage, shed)
Fan play to have as much hash as possible while maintaing low dB:
~30C ambient
1. Noctua 3000 PWM ($24.5, 110CFM, up to 3000rpm, just 41dB) in push position: ~59-61C at 325mhz, 1070Gh; less stable at 350mhz.
2. Scythe Ultra KAZE ($15.3, 130CFM, 3000rpm, 46dB) in push position via molex adapter-worse than Noctua, temp rising close to 65C at 325mhz, discontinued. Strange result as this fan has nominally higher CFM than Noctua.
3. Noctua in push, Scythe in pull (connected to molex through included adapter), up to 337.5 mhz is stable (1100 Gh).
Conclusion: adding Scythe ($15) in pull might be not worth it as it adds just ~30gh.
I simply taped Scythe to exhaust in pull orientation because could not find proper screws yet.
Question: anybody knows what are the characteristics/dimensions of the machine screws Bitmain is using for fans? They seem to be in between 3 and 4mmX42mm, but I wasn't able to find such screws easily. They are not 3X40mm for sure. Anybody have a link?
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Did anyone noticed bitmain have increased shipping costs for S5 (was like 50 and now it is 80)
probably depends where. To US it is $41.5 (UPS) per unit if you order two S5 and $38 for fedex. If you order one, then $45-47 |
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http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B004Y1HLA8/Delta Electronics AFB1212SHE 120x120x38mm Cooling Fan, 151.85 CFM, 58 dBA, 3700 RPM, 1.06 AMP, PWM 4-pin connector THIS IS FOR THE DELTA AFB1212SHE FAN
Thanks for this. Just ordered four of those fans off Amazon. Will give them a whirl. Looking to order a couple more S5's this week. What's the option code on the end? It'll be like AFB1212SHE-F00 or something. That's what determines things like the PWM, tach output vs locked rotor sensor, etc. This is probably a good choice for $22, but it is not the same fan Phil, Strato and myself were talking about. That fan was a deal on ebay for ~$8/fan, but with a wicked connector. http://www.ebay.com/itm/191443200211 |
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No I just cut the connector off of the stock S5 Fan with 4" of wire. Stripped the wire to expose 1/4" bare wire, and then plugged the wires from the S5 fan into the new fan's connectors. Then sealed.
Working great.
Strato
Thanks. That was a bit beyond my limited mod skills; I just sent the fans back  . The deal from the same guy is still available for ~$10/fan if you feel like splicing wires and do the OP procedure and checking which one work. The price is great, though. I am getting Scythe already for $15, so will try these first (either by themselves or in addition to Noctua 3000). I sent this on to Philip as well - this works - but the fan runs full speed - no monitoring. Swaping the order on the middle two doesnt work. Hope this helps! THIS IS FOR THE DELTA AFB1212SHE FAN>snipped image< Strato looks great, thanks. I would add to put the grille back on the new delta fan because it is quite fast and the blades are fragile (and so are the fingers ) |
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No I just cut the connector off of the stock S5 Fan with 4" of wire. Stripped the wire to expose 1/4" bare wire, and then plugged the wires from the S5 fan into the new fan's connectors. Then sealed.
Working great.
Strato
Thanks. That was a bit beyond my limited mod skills; I just sent the fans back . The deal from the same guy is still available for ~$10/fan if you feel like splicing wires and do the OP procedure and checking which one work. The price is great, though. I am getting Scythe already for $15, so will try these first (either by themselves or in addition to Noctua 3000). |
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Well I got the Delta Fans up and running - special thanks to Tom and Dogie and everyone for their help! Only oddity is that the fan is not communicating with the miner dashboard - it just shows 0 speed. My temps look ok '55-59' And from what it seems the fan is just going full speed. I'm clocked at 387.5 and getting 1260ghash. I clocked it up to 400 and ran it for a few hours with no issues; but decided better safe than sorry. 425 Crashed a Blade and had to reboot. Any thoughts on why I'm not getting fan speeds? I tried reversing the two wires - but then the fan didnt work at all. Thanks again! Strato P.S. The Delta Fans are about 1/2 the noise level - so much better! Kind of sounds like a small space heater on high-- as opposed to a small shop vac.  Still waiting for my s-5 to come as I sold the demo to a friend. I have the same fans. I know the 2 end wires are for power. I have not tried the 2 center wires will do so on weds if the gear shows up. When I set the end wires and do not attach the center I run at full speed. I know 2 of these fans at full speed is 5 db lower then the stock screamer. and the pitch is better.. so 2 fans are only 16 bucks. Not only that I believe two of these will cool better then 1 stock fan. Thus running at 400 should be very easy to do. Hey Philip, I actually bought these fans on ebay based on your initial thread. If you end up getting the fan speeds to work please PM me and let me know. Thanks for the good lead on the fans as well as all of your other helpful advice. Your review thread is great. I am only running 1 fan on the unit now, no issues at 400 or 387.5. I suppose configuring 2 fans on the unit would perhaps allow the fans to be run at a lower speed -> less noise. Thanks again, Strato Good for you, but i am surprised that you were able to make them work. Did you remove the non-standard connector and replaced with molex head? the connector did not fit the pins on the miner (I got the same fans). |
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