clock check

Okay, I said drift down to 32 handle, and it was actually a jump, so I was wrong on that, but yeah, all the stuff I predicted a few pages back worked out, basically as described, so far.  Now to range trade for a while, and then more BTC comes in, and levels the price up, ultimately through a 40 handle.

I might be starting to get the hang of the crypto markets.  Historically I have found them very hard to predict, as compared to larger markets, but I'm rather pleased with the accuracy of this particular estimation.  So far I have a winning streak of length 1.

Not that anyone will believe my predictions.  I don't even believe them.  If people believed them, they would front run them, thus breaking them.

Okay, I think I can declare victory, as it touched the 32 handle.

Following

18 hours?

Some browsers have dropped support for the deprecated RC4 algorithm.  They do this in part to pressure you to change your cert, because of RC4 vulnerability exploits.  I think letsencrypt.org provides free certs, but haven't used it myself.

I have issues with dash as well, but you won't see me raising them in a Monero thread.  This thread is under hands-free moderation, so we need to police ourselves.  I think the decent thing to do, if you want to badmouth some other coin, is to take it to an appropriate thread.  Go to the lion's den, or stake out a neutral ground.  Don't please drag Monero into your beef.  If there are observations relating to speculation, please take them to a speculation thread.

Range trading as predicted, so far. A little higher than expected, though.  No idea what comes next, but usually there is a wednesday bump.

Paper wallet: https://moneroaddress.org

More power to them. When a market is spiky, they help smooth it out.  But I can't imagine the reasoning that supports it.  There is probably 5% downside risk here, but essentially unlimited upside risk:  The mcap rise draws attention.  That means new eyes on this thing.  Most of them just won't get it - I guess those are the ones who are most likely to short.  But it doesn't take but one or two with deep pockets who get it, and off we go again.  Moreover, I don't think our new whale friend is finished.  Also, we have active unlevered market makers.  At this point they are all overweight BTC, and seeking to rebalance.   They will be dip buyers.

Unrelated:  I did a little DNM survey.  It seems multisig is not much used.  More a nice-to-have than a sine-qua-non.  The norm is that the market acts as a bank and escrow agent.  Terrible idea, of course, but much easier for the end-users, if they tolerate the risk of exit-scam, and it seems they do, despite repeated burns.

More scared of losing money than they are of losing their freedom? Questionable.  Also, bitcoin volatility is low now, but during DNM adoption phase it was much higher.  The very fact of adoption creates volatility.  Nobody minds upside volatility.

I am not qualified to comment on the specific ECC variant you sketched.  However, I do believe there are ECC variants which are resistant to Schor, and other public key algos - which might be a slightly higher engineering burden to integrate in Monero, but I think the degree of scrutiny any of these have endured is comparatively light, and I know of no good implementations - but neither would I expect to know of them if they existed, as I haven't been following the topic during this millenium.

Backdoor-ing the implementation, e.g. by weakening the crypto.  Anything else would be obvious and precipitate a fork.  Backdoors can be excruiciatingly subtle.

It would be a good problem to have.  Being a speculative vehicle on one u.s. crypto exchange isn't going to suffice. I look forward to the day that XMR is strong enough to warrant a crypto arms race.  The trading ops will be stupendous. 

If you really want to worry, worry about core devs getting coopted (bribery, extortion), or quantum crypto destroying all the ECC infrastructure.  That is what troubles me.

I continue to hold that Ethereum is strictly irrelevant to the currency use-case.  The barriers to liquidity are too high.  The layers of complexity required to achieve fungibility are too risky. The scalability problems are intractable.  The legal/political risk is off the charts.  Even zcash is more credible, and that is another corporate coin, centralizing political and legal risk.

I will wager 100 XMR that a top 3 volume DNM offers XMR support before ETH.  When that happens, game over.  XMR mcap will then surpass ETH within a month.

In fact, that might be what our whale friend knows about.

The block reward per unit of time is unchanged.  Block size limits increase and block frequency decreases.  There is no fundamental change in the social contract.  Such changes are deemed unethical in the XMR community, unless technical considerations override.

Nice little dump.  Should create more long opportunity now.  I needed to see that before my guts could settle.

If I am interpreting the book correctly, there should be two more jump cycles before our new friend is full, and the price will stabilize north of 400 (conservatively) in about a week.  

Well he does make one good point: If you want out, there are 200 BTC with your name on them at 344, which ain't bad.  

So far, your scenario is better matched to the facts.  I certainly find it preferable.

Possible whale fight?  Bullwhale is bigger.  Otherwise, accumulation wall in place.  Bullish either way.

But my emotions, my guts, are bearish.  

My average bid is 320.  My average ask is 390.  It's a cowardly wide spread, but I do not want to buy back higher.  My sums on the book are half what they usually are.