[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

I continue to hold that Ethereum is strictly irrelevant to the currency use-case.  The barriers to liquidity are too high.  The layers of complexity required to achieve fungibility are too risky. The scalability problems are intractable.  The legal/political risk is off the charts.  Even zcash is more credible, and that is another corporate coin, centralizing political and legal risk.

I will wager 100 XMR that a top 3 volume DNM offers XMR support before ETH.  When that happens, game over.  XMR mcap will then surpass ETH within a month.

In fact, that might be what our whale friend knows about.

[tifozi]

Ethereum addresses will always display amount and transaction to-from from their main chain. Suddenly they are not going to change their entire cryptography. It's far more likely that more open source XMR developers will join down the road to see if there is potential to enhance the XMR blockchain with smart contract like features, although no such feature is really a necessity for the main purpose of this coin.

Ethereum's market cap eroded quite a lot when XCP came out of testnet with smart contract features on an infinitely more robust network (BTC).

FUD off  

[canth]

Future trade advice - sell NOW. This bubble is about to pop.

Why sell an amazing coin?

1. 80% of net hash are botnets
2. No one uses it, blocks carry no transactions (http://chainradar.com/xmr/blocks).
3. Obsolete - Ethereum Serenity release will include a ring signature dapp (confirmed by Vitalik)

Why would I use a token with optional security which may be used by some participants some of the time vs using a token which has default trx mixing for all transactions? I'm still not convinced that optional privacy features will end up being much use.

[DaveJones]

Taken some profits from $0.50  

I'll wait for a pause and slump from the current pump, before getting back a serious position. Next big leg should be to $1.90.

[smoothie]

I'm dumping 300xmr/day, whatever the price..

Ha! That will really move the market.  

As long as you have a lot of other minnow friends...  


EDIT: IIRC you already sold ALL your XMR, no?

Yes i sold almost 100k xmr in the last 2 months, invested all into ETH and made a fortune. I still mine XMR at 300KH/s , dump everything i mine at 24h intervals

Translation: "I always use market hindsight 20-20 vision to tell people about my past trades and nothing about my future trades to get a track record"

Future trade advice - sell NOW. This bubble is about to pop.

Future posting advice - Run away and save your credibility (what there is of it left, if any).

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Now (with current volume as high as it is) is the appropriate time to bug the folks at Kraken about offering XMR trading pairs.

[maydna]

its forking the same as halving?

No.

That, and Monero doesn't have halvings at all. The block reward drops a tiny amount with each block.

so forking is drops of block reward, and what its mean for the rate? is this gonna up or even the worst gonna down? i am sorry, i need more explain, i am newbie of this. thank you

The forking has nothing to do with the block reward. It has always dropped by a tiny amount with each block.

The only difference the fork makes with respect to blocks and rewards is that target block time (currently 1 minutes) will double (to 2 minutes) and the current reward per block (currently about 6.75) will double (to about 13.5). The alert will notice this means no change in the rate of supply.

so the rate will be cheap than now, right?

[smoothie]

There probably will be some resistance at $1.75-$1.90 then the next resistance mark is $2.50.

[vuduchyld]

I just looked at the weekly candles on BitcoinWisdom.

Interestingly, last year, there were 7-8 green candles in a row from Feb 13th through the first week in April.  Price went from .0011 to .0033 with an actual high in there of about .0042.

Maybe it's seasonal interest?  If so, this bull might have another couple of weeks to run, anyway!  However, I post this with my tongue firmly planted in my cheek, as I believe this is very different.  Volume appears to be triple, for one thing.

[bitjedi]

the warm fuzzies u get when you're out and your trading app notifies you of an xmr green dildo.
 

[maydna]

the warm fuzzies u get when you're out and your trading app notifies you of an xmr green dildo.
 

yes and now its becomes 0.0037

[birr]

a top 3 volume DNM offers XMR support

I fear we don't have the hashing power or the node count to withstand the not-so-tender attentions of a state actor that might follow upon such a scenario.  What's your opinion?

[americanpegasus]

a top 3 volume DNM offers XMR support

I fear we don't have the hashing power or the node count to withstand the not-so-tender attentions of a state actor that might follow upon such a scenario.  What's your opinion?

Hashing power, price, perceived value, demand, utility, and node counts all are correlated.  Every time one of those elements moves up, it drags the rest of them up too - the reverse is also possible but much harder to drag back down as time goes on. 
 
There are some very powerful game theory elements that have not been fully realized with regards to pure proof-of-work coins.

[birr]

I mean what if the NSA makes an all-out attempt to bring monero down.  Political hysteria about dark markets, "terrorism, drugs and child pornography" could lead to that, in the worst case.

[smooth]

The only difference the fork makes with respect to blocks and rewards is that target block time (currently 1 minutes) will double (to 2 minutes) and the current reward per block (currently about 6.75) will double (to about 13.5). The alert will notice this means no change in the rate of supply.

so the rate will be cheap than now, right?

Let me bold that for you above

[aminorex]

I mean what if the NSA makes an all-out attempt to bring monero down.  Political hysteria about dark markets, ...could lead to that, in the worst case.

It would be a good problem to have.  Being a speculative vehicle on one u.s. crypto exchange isn't going to suffice. I look forward to the day that XMR is strong enough to warrant a crypto arms race.  The trading ops will be stupendous. 

If you really want to worry, worry about core devs getting coopted (bribery, extortion), or quantum crypto destroying all the ECC infrastructure.  That is what troubles me.

[americanpegasus]

If you really want to worry, worry about core devs getting coopted (bribery, extortion), or quantum crypto destroying all the ECC infrastructure.  That is what troubles me.

First of all, yes, should Monero survive a government attack it would become 100x larger and more powerful than it ever was before. 
 
Secondly, yes, quantum computers scare me some.  Do you (or anyone) know if abelian surface cryptography is any more resistant to quantum computing than the 2D equivalent?  I am referring to taking the elliptic cruve and extending it into three dimensions so it becomes an 'elliptic bulb' (though more complex shapes are likely possible once there).  The point-and-line which is used to create the trapdoor function as it bounces around the curve would then become a line-and-plane bouncing around inside a 3D surface and creating an orders-of-magnitude harder to crack trapdoor function.  This is especially true if the line that is bouncing around features things like rotation and velocity.

[smfuser]

If you really want to worry, worry about core devs getting coopted (bribery, extortion), or quantum crypto destroying all the ECC infrastructure.  That is what troubles me.

What kinds of actions would you worry the core devs could be coopted into taking?

[iCEBREAKER]

Now (with current volume as high as it is) is the appropriate time to bug the folks at Kraken about offering XMR trading pairs.

Never too early to start asking, but IMO Kraken won't GAF about XMR until we (at minimum) surpass Dash's market cap.  ATM XMR isn't a big/deep enough pool for whales to swim in comfortably, but I am 99.9% certain we will get there Soon^®.

Nice to see lending rates shooting up to 0.5%.  This is where I berate all the cheap+stupid+greedy fuckwits who are lending their coins for dust (especially those locked into rates <0.1%), when, by not trying to undercut their fellow lenders, they could have enjoyed an actual return commensurate to the risk entailed by keeping coins online in a likely-to-be-Gox'd exchange.

I told all of you it was silly and counterproductive to effectively subsidize loans with below-market desperation rates.  I told all of you offering 0.001% loans when there was no demand was like screaming into a vacuum.

0.5% daily is (without compounding) 183% annual yield.  1 XMR lent at 0.5% provides the same return as 500 lent at 0.001%.  Can you hear me now?  Was it worth playing crabs-in-a-bucket to get tacoshi dust, while those of us willing to cooperate rather than compete enjoy our fat, juicy ROI?   

(Apologies in advance to anyone lending ~free coins in order to set a trap for shorts.  I love you MoonWhale!!!!)

[aminorex]

If you really want to worry, worry about core devs getting coopted (bribery, extortion), or quantum crypto destroying all the ECC infrastructure.  That is what troubles me.

What kinds of actions would you worry the core devs could be coopted into taking?

Backdoor-ing the implementation, e.g. by weakening the crypto.  Anything else would be obvious and precipitate a fork.  Backdoors can be excruiciatingly subtle.