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8421  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: June 09, 2022, 11:03:07 AM
NZ losing is a clearer outcome for me than Australia losing, but I think both are likely.

Well.. it is not that simple. I haven't watched too many of Costa Rica's matches. But back in 2014, they shocked everyone when they topped Group D, ahead of Uruguay, England and Italy. Italy finished 3rd and failed to qualify for the knockout phase. Worse still, England finished at rock bottom with just 1 point. It was the "group of death" and Costa Rica managed to top that group. But then in 2018, they were pathetic. Once again they were placed in a tough group, but this time they failed to win even a single match. IMO, both Costa Rica and New Zealand have almost equal chances this time.
8422  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod] on: June 09, 2022, 03:36:30 AM
They are planning to make IPL 90 days affairs from next year or so.

If by any chance this T-10 scenario ( it was supposed to be a joke on how BCCI hijacked the T-20 format completely) pans out then BCCI will push for another 1 month dedicated window for T-10 format.

I would love to see representation from associate nations too in 5 overseas players category. 

I don't have any issue if they want to extend IPL to 3 months. But then they should not complain about new ICC tournaments. Because the BCCI last time stood against increasing the number of ICC tournaments (T20 world cup every two years, instead of four). And also, they should provide a part of their income to the ICC. Right now, the so called foreign player retention fee is pocketed by 3-4 countries such as Australia, England and West Indies. The ICC needs to distribute this fund evenly among the member states. And regarding associate players, the franchises don't prefer such players, no matter how talented they are.
8423  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar - UEFA Qualifiers on: June 09, 2022, 03:22:30 AM
I don't really know why Peru is so strongly favoured against Australia. I don't think that they're that much better. If I would have to predict, I would say that this game will got o Extra Time and maybe penalties. And yeah,
Costa Rica isn't something special, but they're still much better than New Zealand.

Users have already posted past stats for Peru and Australia and it is easy to see why Peru is so strongly favored. If you don't want to go with the past history, you can check their recent performances and FIFA ranking. Peru is ranked 25th, while Australia is currently languishing at the 41st position. So you can clearly see why the sportsbooks are favoring Peru for the playoff. And being an Oceanian team, I don't think that Australia has any additional advantage with playing in Qatar. And for the Costa Rica vs New Zealand match, I would favor the former, due to the reasons already mentioned for the first playoff.
8424  Economy / Economics / Re: LMAO: India resells Russian oil to the European Union. on: June 09, 2022, 03:08:33 AM
Honestly those "tree huggers" is not the problem in that case, because Nuclear power plants are usually very clean if you know what you are doing. I know that there is a chance it could blow up and that would be horrible, but nobody builds a nuclear power plant just so it would blow up and be terrible. It is energy efficient, you can carry it for very long distances, and it is not going to be hurting the world if nothing happens.

So, even for a tree hugger, it is actually a good idea, it is a clean energy source that covers so much energy need with just one of them, 10 of them would light the whole nation, why would it be something tree huggers hate, I would never know.

Exactly. I don't understand why the Green Party hates Nuclear energy so much. There are somewhere between 400 to 500 nuclear powerplants operating in the world as of now, and many of them have been operating for decades without any issues. There were isolated incidents such as Chernobyl, but now the technology has improved a lot and chances of an accident occurring is much less than a hypro-power dam getting blasted. Makes me suspicious about the real intention of these people. Aren't they being funded by corporations that manufacture solar panels and wind turbines?
8425  Economy / Economics / Re: World has just ten weeks' worth of wheat left after Ukraine war on: June 09, 2022, 02:56:31 AM
That is a good topic for discussion. How and when Russia and Ukraine turned into partial wheat, sunflower oil, barley and oats market monopolists? The land, soil on their territory are not so unique, that makes it the only place where these cultures can be produced. The earth is huge. We cant find another place to plant wheat and wait for harvest, while consuming current supplies? 

China and India are the top producers of wheat and not Russia and Ukraine. That said, neither China, nor India have spare export capacity. China is a net importer of wheat, while India exports only insignificant quantities of the grain. The advantage with Russia and Ukraine is that they export most of what they produce and they are located strategically close to the major wheat importing nations such as Turkey, Egypt and Algeria. At it obviously helps that both the black sea nations were able to increase their wheat output by more than 2x during the last two decades.
8426  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: [Boxing] Canelo vs Golovkin 3 (September 17) on: June 09, 2022, 02:44:11 AM
A slight interchange of name here, Canelo is the one who lost against Bivol with a huge upset, and that lost brought him back to fight GGG again. Luckily GGG wants to put an exclamation point on their trilogy (which is a good thing).
Now that GGG is 40 years old, I'll have to say they could have done it before he turns 40. Though he's still in a great form as what we've seen in the Murata fight, GGG still have enough left on his tank.
This fight is gonna be Canelo's ticket to continue climbing on his career, but if he lost I don't know what the future holds for him or who he will fight next, or most likely will have to witness a 4th match.

If he loses his second consecutive match (after the loss to Bivol), then things will get bad for Canelo. In all probability he will win this match and I believe that the betting odds are fair. But GGG can't be written off despite the fact that he is 40-years old. He has waited so long to get his revenge, especially after the biased scoring for the first two fights. The situation is very interesting. GGG has nothing to lose. He is already close to retirement and will be fighting against a top-ranked boxer. Even if he loses, his career may not suffer. But that is not the case with Canelo. If GGG somehow wins, then there will be negative implications on Canelo's career. 
8427  Economy / Economics / Re: Italy Is Held Back by 2.6 Million People Who Have Given Up on Work on: June 09, 2022, 02:31:09 AM
I am 100% sure that the situation is not as bad as the case here in India. Here just around 1.5% of the population pays income tax. Almost everything is subsidized (food, fuel, electricity, housing, healthcare, education.etc) by the government (either federal or state), and it is very much possible for entire families to survive despite doing any work. For non-Indians it may be difficult to believe that 1.5% of the population (derogatively called as the "salaried class") is subsidizing the remaining 98.5%, but this system has survived for many decades now.
8428  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ODI cricket and general cricketing discussion [self - mod] on: June 09, 2022, 02:19:11 AM
In the end experienced Pakistan was able to demolish the inexperienced West Indies squad. Pakistan is a well balanced side, with world class players such as Babar Azam, Fakhar Zaman and Shaheen Shah Afridi. On the other hand, West Indies don't have any players who can directly compete with these players one-to-one. And one more thing is that Pakistan worked well as a team and the bonding is good. West Indies on the other hand lacked cohesion and were dependent too much on individual performances. In captaincy also, Babar Azam is a level ahead of Nicholas Pooran.
8429  Economy / Economics / Re: Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe? on: June 09, 2022, 02:07:43 AM
~~~~
Finally and this is more important, there has been a fixed supply and increasing demand of oil for years and so far nobody has increased production. So any market that is abandoned by one seller will be filled by another but that other seller has to reduce exports to a third buyer so like a chain they are just switching customers. For example a lot of Iranian oil finds its way to EU markets through third parties and at a higher price so any market that Russia abandoned was partially filled by Iran. Any oil that EU imports from somewhere else means that somewhere else is abandoning another market which again Iran fills. Imagine a crazy big shuffle in the market.
Iran's oil export that is publicly known in May has been 40% higher than May last year. How can it have been replaced if it is increasing?

On this I have to agree. The net demand for crude oil is going up and the supply needs to come from somewhere. At this point, I won't be surprised if Iran produces and exports more crude than what they are believed to be doing. China imports most of the Iranian crude through indirect means. From what I heard, the crude is first exported to the UAE and Malaysia where they are blended and re-branded, and then imported to China. Anyway, after so many years of sanctions and embargoes, Iran by now must have found out the loopholes on how to circumvent them.
8430  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Cricket match prediction discussions on: June 09, 2022, 01:55:14 AM
Yeah! It is obvious because you know, cricket is and will be generating a lot more revenue compared to the other sports in India.

So, those sponsors will obviously want to invest in cricket instead of these sports, right?

Cricket can bring them multiple times the money that they invest which the other sports League obviously will not be able to do. So, it is not a surprise for me to see the majority of sponsors being interested in cricket now.

IMO, the sponsors don't want to take the risk. They want to invest in a product (IPL) that is already popular. They don't want to invest in the other leagues, because they are not popular as of now, although they may become popular in the medium to long term. Another issue is related to the stability. Leagues such as HIL are defunct now. Those who invested their money in these leagues are now left high and dry. The situation is similar to the numerous ICO scams we had in 2018, when the development team suddenly stopped all their activity once they received money from the investors.
8431  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: June 09, 2022, 01:43:33 AM
The Lions has given a low target in the second T20 game as well. Their batting lineup collapsed in the death overs today. Australia trying to win the game as quickly as possible, like they did it in the first match. Although Australia has lost their first three wickets, but they are going to chase the 125 runs target within 14 to 16 overs. Perhaps, Sri Lanka won't be able to win any T20 match in this series.

Australia won the match, but there were quite a few worrying signals for them. They lost 7 wickets while chasing such a paltry total. Jhye Richardson and Kane Richardson shared 7 wickets between them to restrict Lanka to a sub-par total, but in return none of the Australian batsmen could get to 30. David Warner continued his good form, but was unfortunate to get out too soon. Steven Smith on the other hand extended his poor T20 record. And in the end it was left for the Australian lower middle order to get them home.
8432  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ FIFA World Cup 2022: Qualifying Games For Qatar on: June 08, 2022, 11:32:47 AM
Absolutely right, CONMEBOL should have at least one extra slot in my view, 4.5 is just too few as basically all the teams there are good enough to qualify, and two of them are always qualifying: Brazil, and Argentina, which are both still undefeated. This basically reduces the slots for the rest of the teams and makes it extremely competitive.

Costa Rica vs New Zealand will be an interesting match, the all whites should be able to win there.

So, overall, my guess is that Oceania (Australia, New Zealand) will go to the world cup.

We had this discussion so many times. My suggestion is to have at least 6 slots for the CONMEBOL confederation instead of the current 4.5. Teams such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and Cameroon will be participating in this edition of the world cup, while strong teams such as Colombia and Chile are unable to secure their qualifications. Now please tell me one thing. Are teams such as Colombia inferior to AFC teams such as Saudi Arabia? Even the lowest ranked CONMEBOL team (Bolivia) plays much better than Saudi Arabia.
8433  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: T20 and T20I cricket prediction and discussion on: June 08, 2022, 11:22:00 AM
Tomorrow India takes on South Africa in the first T20 matche. There will be five T20 match happening therefore plenty of cricket this month too. Indian team will be captained by KL Rahul and I hope he performs well both as a captain and a batter otherwise he might not get another opportunity next time. I am also eager to see Umran Malik again in action in this series.

I am not very excited. First of all, India has got the shittiest captain possible. Anyone else, even Yuzvendra Chahal or Ishan Kishan would make a better captain when compared to KL Rahul. And now coming to Umran Malik, this is the first time that India is having a bowler who can clock 90-95 mph on a consistent basis. But he is young and he needs to have control over his deliveries. He will be up against some of the most destructive batsmen in T20 cricket, such as Quinton de Kock and David Miller. There is simply no room for any error.
8434  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Cricket match prediction discussions on: June 08, 2022, 11:09:12 AM
Yes, I agree that football has really good popularity in India, at least in certain states of India. And the same goes for field hockey.

But the most realistic situation for a person living in India will always be playing cricket as a profession because the other sports do not have enough patrons in India. So cricket is the only sport that can give future stability. If anyone plays other sports eventually they will have to leave that sport and look for another job. But that probably will change in the future but it is going to take at least 5 to 10 years. And India is also concentrating on cricket a lot more right now.

Cricket has definitely more "prestige" in India when compared to the other sports. IPL is one of the richest sports leagues in the world, while the other leagues in India have struggled to survive. ISL and PKL salaries are only a fraction of those in the IPL. Leagues such as Hockey India League (HIL), Indian Premier Handball League (IPHL) and Super Boxing League have become defunct. Corporates refuse to sponsor sports other than cricket. Even former football strongholds such as Goa are now getting dominated by cricket.
8435  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod] on: June 08, 2022, 10:57:20 AM
There is no need to change any rule imo. Quick solution would be.

Organise the T-10 WC and in the very first edition let India-Pakistan to qualify for the finals, followed by India winning by fine margin. Voila!!  Grin

After that BCCI will take care of everything.

LOL.. if that happens, then the BCCI will convert IPL to a T10 league. Instead of 10 teams, they can have 20, and that alone should bring $10 billion in franchise fees. Total number of matches will just double, and advertisement slots will get sold for record amounts. Even tier-2 cities such as Dehra Dun and Guwahati can have IPL franchises. But the big question is whether there are enough local players to support 20 teams. They can increase the overseas quota from 4 to 5, but even then the remaining 6 players need to be locals.
8436  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod] on: June 08, 2022, 03:51:37 AM
Understandable. However, I feel that T-10 format could attract a bigger audience primarily due to the length of the games. Many people don't even have time to fully watch T-20 games from start to finish which is where the T-10 format comes into the picture.

It would definitely feel unfair at first, but I am confident that viewers would get used to it pretty quickly.

In the end, the viewers will get whatever they want. Even for the T10 format, the total duration (90-100 minutes) is slightly longer than a standard football match or a game of field hockey. In the future, T10 may become the preferred format and T20 may face the same fate as that of test cricket and ODI. Nowadays viewers want maximum action within a short duration, and T10 is very much suited for that purpose. And who knows? It may make cricket more popular in markets such as USA and Japan, where baseball is dominant.
8437  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: ⚽ FIFA World Cup 2022: Qualifying Games For Qatar on: June 08, 2022, 03:35:08 AM
Groud D already has France, Denmark and Tunisia.

The next one to join it will be either Australia or Peru. We will find out in a few days, but my guess is that Australia will end up winning.

Peru is not a particularly strong team, and in these qualifiers they've not been incredibly good. On the other hand Australia seems to be doing quite well lately, and I'm sure they're going to secure their spot at the world cup.

It will be a close match though, but as I said I think Australia has a slight advantage and will end up winning.

Never write off any of the CONMEBOL teams. Even the weakest teams in that confederation, such as Bolivia and Venezuela are capable of defeating the strongest teams in CAF and AFC. Now I regard Australia as one of the strongest teams in AFC, but still I would go for Peru if they face each other. Anyway, we need to wait one more week to find out which team is going to qualify for Qatar 2022. Also, there is one more playoff scheduled for next week (CONCACAF v OFC), in which Costa Rica will take on New Zealand.
8438  Economy / Economics / Re: World has just ten weeks' worth of wheat left after Ukraine war on: June 08, 2022, 03:23:40 AM
Here it Europe the price of sunflower has gone up also. If not mistaken, it has already increased two times. It now cost same as olive oil. I am not an expert in cooking, but isnt olive oil more healthy? I see people prefer to use olive oil for cooking, instead of sunflower. On the other hand, I remember times when I had renovations of kitchen and I had no cooking stove at all. I've been using multicooker device for months, managed to make soups, porridge, stewed meat and etc. Used oil only for salads. I feel that food prices has gone up, but once again, there is to much drama around wheat. People will adopt their eating habits and wait for war to end.

It is a chain reaction. In the long term, the price of olive oil can't remain at the same level as that of sunflower oil. As people start replacing sunflower oil with olive oil, the price for the latter would go up. Sunflower oil prices have already gone up by around 50%, and we can expect the olive oil prices to rise by a similar level. The equilibrium in the market is disrupted. And it will have an impact on all the commodifies, and not just on the commodities that are mostly sourced from Russia and Ukraine, such as wheat, sunflower oil, barley and oats.
8439  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Cricket match prediction discussions on: June 08, 2022, 03:09:55 AM
IMO if BCCI starts pumping money in northeast then i believe we'll see some improvement on local representation.

I have watched a few matches of these teams. Manipur is almost 100% native, as they have a number of well known local cricket clubs. But most of the other teams rely on mainland players. Meghalaya is majority mainlander, with just around 25% native, while teams like Nagaland and Sikkim are around 50% native. I don't know whether the BCCI is interested in developing cricket in these states. Football is more popular than cricket there, and Manipur is famous for being a powerhouse for other sports such as field hockey and athletics.

But cricket is the most popular sport in India. It is really hard to see any other sport prosper like cricket in India. Football was also pretty popular before the pandemic situation. But that is gone right now. If these are places where cricket can be popularised because cricket is not very popular there, I think a lot more talent will come forward. But that will also mean the downgrade of the popularity of other sports.

In India, there are regions where cricket is not as popular as other sports. As I mentioned earlier, one example is that of North-eastern states such as Nagaland and Mizoram. Football is far more popular than cricket in these states. You can notice the same situation in Northern Kerala and Goa as well. And in states such as Punjab, field hockey is more popular than cricket. India is known as a cricket crazy nation, because in the larger states such as Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, 90% of the residents would list cricket as their favorite sport.
8440  Economy / Economics / Re: Who will Replace Russian Gas Supplies to Europe? on: June 08, 2022, 02:43:57 AM
The US interest in Venezuela and Iran is not accidental; their grade of oil is similar to the Russian grade of heavy oil. Some fuels, such as jet fuel and diesel, are made in refineries that need heavy oil for their processing cycle, and this oil cannot be replaced by light oil from the Middle East.

FYI Iran has the 4th largest oil reserves (Russia has 8th) and 2nd largest natural gas reserves (Russia has 1st). Iran's output is already higher than Russia's with more customers than we can handle specially for oil!

I don't think that Iran's output is higher than Russia. As per the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data of 2021, Russian crude oil output is 10.1 million barrels of crude per day, while that of Iran is 3.11 million barrels. Iran may be able to replace Russian natural gas. But there are no pipelines from Iran to the EU and they don't have any large LNG terminals. Rather than Iran replacing Russian oil, in the recent weeks it has been the reverse scenario. Russian oil has replaced some of the Iranian oil sales to the Asian countries:

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202206072851
https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2022/5/31/eu-embargo-of-russian-oil-spells-trouble-for-iran
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