World has just ten weeks' worth of wheat left after Ukraine war

[bakasabo]

Well they can start planting now. I think the main possible issue with switching is if the current producers are producing enough for their current market. Like, the Americas produce corn for their consumption but we don't know if they'll have enough excess to sell if the people feeding on wheat switches to corn suddenly.

Wheat is planted in winter and it gets ready in summer. Wheat is not a winter crop.
How ever I dont think this would happen. There will be shortage - this is just a panic created. I am sure that this food crisis will not happen. Ameen

Indeed it wont happen. World can wait for "wheat supplies to recover" and parallel limit himself of some goods or food. What is food crisis - time when there is nothing to eat. So far I dont see that we dont have real problem with food supplies all around the world. Like the world faced travelling problem due to covid and was patiently waiting for it to over, the same will be with wheat supplies. Wait 1-2 years and everything will be back to normal. The world wont starve to death without having few years same wheat amount as usually.

[Naficopa]

Indeed it wont happen. World can wait for "wheat supplies to recover" and parallel limit himself of some goods or food. What is food crisis - time when there is nothing to eat. So far I dont see that we dont have real problem with food supplies all around the world. Like the world faced travelling problem due to covid and was patiently waiting for it to over, the same will be with wheat supplies. Wait 1-2 years and everything will be back to normal. The world wont starve to death without having few years same wheat amount as usually.

Agreed - there is so much propaganda involved to keep the hype.
I am very much sure that this would not happen anytime sooner - Hopefully the food crisis won't happen. But who keeps creating this type of news? any authentic source?

[Ozero]

Amazing how a war in not biggest and leading country lead to an economical crisis. Amazing how war tactics did not improve in centuries. As in the past armies used exhaustion tactics to conquer castles and countries, as same happens now.

We have increased food prices. Later we will have what - a wheat war? In 21st century? Slowly turning into barbarians... What is going to be after supplies of wheat comes to an end? Which next recourse will be on the brink of extinction?

All this indicates that in our world there is absolutely no working system of collective security. One sick leader of the country who has gone out of his mind really terrorizes the whole world, putting the destruction of all mankind on the brink, threatening with nuclear weapons and in fact the world can do nothing. Russian warships in the Black Sea behave like pirates, firing at and sending to the bottom of civilian ships of various states. Nine civil ships have already been damaged and one of them sunk. At the same time, the whole world is silent for some reason. There are even calls from some European politicians, such as French President Macron, that there is no need to humiliate Russia in its war of conquest. Complete idiocy.
Although many states are now helping Ukraine defend itself against Russia's aggressive actions, these actions are clearly not enough in the face of a general threat.

[Bttzed03]

Don't underestimate the wheat shortage because it will affect you in one way or another. It's already affecting even the smallest of business like the one street vendor I encountered today. He couldn't buy bread from the market in the last two days and he had no other option than to buy at a retail store for a higher price. Needles to say, he had to charge more for the food I ordered and I just have to suck it up. That's just my own experience and I'm sure similar cases are happening in other parts of the world.

[Sithara007]

Don't underestimate the wheat shortage because it will affect you in one way or another. It's already affecting even the smallest of business like the one street vendor I encountered today. He couldn't buy bread from the market in the last two days and he had no other option than to buy at a retail store for a higher price. Needles to say, he had to charge more for the food I ordered and I just have to suck it up. That's just my own experience and I'm sure similar cases are happening in other parts of the world.

It's not just wheat. Here in India, the prices of most of the food commodities have gone up by 25% to 100%. Sunflower oil now costs 40% to 50% extra, because most of it is imported from Russia and Ukraine. Wheat prices have remained low, because of the export ban imposed by the central government. But in case of wheat also, it needs to be seen for how long the prices will remain at this level. There is a lot of pressure from the farmer groups to remove the export ban, so that they could sell their wheat at higher prices.

[bakasabo]

It's not just wheat. Here in India, the prices of most of the food commodities have gone up by 25% to 100%. Sunflower oil now costs 40% to 50% extra, because most of it is imported from Russia and Ukraine. Wheat prices have remained low, because of the export ban imposed by the central government. But in case of wheat also, it needs to be seen for how long the prices will remain at this level. There is a lot of pressure from the farmer groups to remove the export ban, so that they could sell their wheat at higher prices.

Here it Europe the price of sunflower has gone up also. If not mistaken, it has already increased two times. It now cost same as olive oil. I am not an expert in cooking, but isnt olive oil more healthy? I see people prefer to use olive oil for cooking, instead of sunflower. On the other hand, I remember times when I had renovations of kitchen and I had no cooking stove at all. I've been using multicooker device for months, managed to make soups, porridge, stewed meat and etc. Used oil only for salads. I feel that food prices has gone up, but once again, there is to much drama around wheat. People will adopt their eating habits and wait for war to end.

[judaspriest]

Indeed it wont happen. World can wait for "wheat supplies to recover" and parallel limit himself of some goods or food. What is food crisis - time when there is nothing to eat. So far I dont see that we dont have real problem with food supplies all around the world. Like the world faced travelling problem due to covid and was patiently waiting for it to over, the same will be with wheat supplies. Wait 1-2 years and everything will be back to normal. The world wont starve to death without having few years same wheat amount as usually.

Agreed - there is so much propaganda involved to keep the hype.
I am very much sure that this would not happen anytime sooner - Hopefully the food crisis won't happen. But who keeps creating this type of news? any authentic source?

No need to be surprised because after all propaganda will not be separated from it and will always exist,
I hope so because the food crisis will cause new problems in the future if it is not addressed immediately,
I don't know if the news is true or just a diversion and it's important to find the authentic source

[Sithara007]

Here it Europe the price of sunflower has gone up also. If not mistaken, it has already increased two times. It now cost same as olive oil. I am not an expert in cooking, but isnt olive oil more healthy? I see people prefer to use olive oil for cooking, instead of sunflower. On the other hand, I remember times when I had renovations of kitchen and I had no cooking stove at all. I've been using multicooker device for months, managed to make soups, porridge, stewed meat and etc. Used oil only for salads. I feel that food prices has gone up, but once again, there is to much drama around wheat. People will adopt their eating habits and wait for war to end.

It is a chain reaction. In the long term, the price of olive oil can't remain at the same level as that of sunflower oil. As people start replacing sunflower oil with olive oil, the price for the latter would go up. Sunflower oil prices have already gone up by around 50%, and we can expect the olive oil prices to rise by a similar level. The equilibrium in the market is disrupted. And it will have an impact on all the commodifies, and not just on the commodities that are mostly sourced from Russia and Ukraine, such as wheat, sunflower oil, barley and oats.

[be.open]

It is a chain reaction. In the long term, the price of olive oil can't remain at the same level as that of sunflower oil. As people start replacing sunflower oil with olive oil, the price for the latter would go up. Sunflower oil prices have already gone up by around 50%, and we can expect the olive oil prices to rise by a similar level. The equilibrium in the market is disrupted. And it will have an impact on all the commodifies, and not just on the commodities that are mostly sourced from Russia and Ukraine, such as wheat, sunflower oil, barley and oats.

Sunflower and olive oil are not interchangeable products, although in stores they often stand side by side on the next shelf. Refined sunflower oil is ideal for frying and is difficult, if not impossible, to replace here. There are many good and different options for salad dressing, but not for frying.

[bakasabo]

mostly sourced from Russia and Ukraine, such as wheat, sunflower oil, barley and oats.

That is a good topic for discussion. How and when Russia and Ukraine turned into partial wheat, sunflower oil, barley and oats market monopolists? The land, soil on their territory are not so unique, that makes it the only place where these cultures can be produced. The earth is huge. We cant find another place to plant wheat and wait for harvest, while consuming current supplies? 

[Ozero]

mostly sourced from Russia and Ukraine, such as wheat, sunflower oil, barley and oats.

That is a good topic for discussion. How and when Russia and Ukraine turned into partial wheat, sunflower oil, barley and oats market monopolists? The land, soil on their territory are not so unique, that makes it the only place where these cultures can be produced. The earth is huge. We cant find another place to plant wheat and wait for harvest, while consuming current supplies? 

Ukraine has about 9% of the world's black soil reserves, about 30% of European reserves and covers an area of ​​about 27 million hectares (46% of the country's territory). At the same time, 22 million hectares are arable land suitable for agribusiness. In terms of black soil area, Ukraine ranks fourth in the world after Russia, the United States and China. But it is also an industrial country, which also has a high intellectual potential. Therefore, for Putin, Ukraine is a tasty morsel. But most of all, Putin wants to appropriate the history of Ukraine for Russia.

In the ninth century, the state of Kievan Rus was formed with its center in Kyiv. This state began to unite other lands around itself and after two or three centuries became one of the strongest states in Europe. At the same time, the first mention of Moscow (the village of Mokva, as it was then called) refers to 1147 as belonging to the Kyiv prince Andrei Bogolyubsky. Before the reign of Tsar Peter the Great, Russia was called Muscovy, and its people were called Muscovites. Now Putin wants to appropriate the legendary history of Ukraine, which goes back to the time of Kievan Rus, as the history of Russia. That is why he wants to seize the territory of Ukraine and include it in his current empire. It is no coincidence that this year the textbooks of the Russian Federation no longer write about the creation of Kievan Rus, but simply about Rus.

Putin seized the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea on the pretext that it previously belonged to Russia. Then Ukraine has the right to claim almost the entire European territory of Russia, including Moscow itself, since all these lands belonged to Kievan Rus and its Kievan princes.

[Sithara007]

That is a good topic for discussion. How and when Russia and Ukraine turned into partial wheat, sunflower oil, barley and oats market monopolists? The land, soil on their territory are not so unique, that makes it the only place where these cultures can be produced. The earth is huge. We cant find another place to plant wheat and wait for harvest, while consuming current supplies? 

China and India are the top producers of wheat and not Russia and Ukraine. That said, neither China, nor India have spare export capacity. China is a net importer of wheat, while India exports only insignificant quantities of the grain. The advantage with Russia and Ukraine is that they export most of what they produce and they are located strategically close to the major wheat importing nations such as Turkey, Egypt and Algeria. At it obviously helps that both the black sea nations were able to increase their wheat output by more than 2x during the last two decades.

[bakasabo]

Ukraine has about 9% of the world's black soil reserves, about 30% of European reserves and covers an area of ​​about 27 million hectares (46% of the country's territory). At the same time, 22 million hectares are arable land suitable for agribusiness.

9% you say... Is this land oriented on the territory, where military operation happens now, or it is far away from war actions? I am sure that war is not happening on the whole territory of Ukraine. Does it mean that less than 9% worlds black soil reserve is unused and not producing wheat. Right ? Wheat disappearance does not look that scary after all. Based on food range stores present, it does not look like world will never see wheat again.

[Ozero]

Ukraine has about 9% of the world's black soil reserves, about 30% of European reserves and covers an area of ​​about 27 million hectares (46% of the country's territory). At the same time, 22 million hectares are arable land suitable for agribusiness.

9% you say... Is this land oriented on the territory, where military operation happens now, or it is far away from war actions? I am sure that war is not happening on the whole territory of Ukraine. Does it mean that less than 9% worlds black soil reserve is unused and not producing wheat. Right ? Wheat disappearance does not look that scary after all. Based on food range stores present, it does not look like world will never see wheat again.

Now hostilities with Russian troops are taking place in eastern Ukraine on the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as in southern Ukraine, where Zaporozhye, Kherson and Nikolaev regions are located. The east of Ukraine was a more industrial area, where there are many metallurgical plants and coal mines. In this regard, there is relatively little black soil there. And in the south of Ukraine, where the climate is more suitable for agricultural production, there is really a lot of black soil. Especially a lot of chernozem is located in the center of Ukraine and in its northern part, where it is now relatively calm, although almost the entire territory of Ukraine is subjected to periodic shelling by aircraft, ships and submarines from the Black Sea.
This year, despite the war and hostilities, about 75 percent of the sown area has been sown compared to last year. Therefore, there will be a harvest in Ukraine.
It should also be noted that not only wheat is grown and exported in Ukraine. A lot of sunflower, corn, other grain crops, as well as various vegetables and fruits are exported.

[Sithara007]

As per the United States Department of Agriculture, for the period of 2022-23, Ukraine is estimated to produce 21.5 million tonnes of wheat, which is 35% down when compared to the production for last year. On the other hand, Russian production is estimated to go up by 5% to 80.6 million tonnes. They will be exporting more than half of this export (42.3 million tonnes). These numbers mean that Russia will be exporting 4 times more wheat compared to Ukraine for 2022-23. Considering the increased price levels of wheat ($495 per tonne for April 2022), the Russian government will be receiving a few billion USD from export duties alone.

[YOSHIE]

From the data I saw in 2020, Ukraine ranks 8th in producing wheat.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/wheat-production-by-country

Here are the 10 countries with the most wheat production:

1. China (134,254,710 tons)
2. India (107,590,000 tons)
3. Russia (85,896,326 tons)
4. United States (49,690,680 tons)
5. Canada (35,183,000 tons)
6. France (30,144,110 tons)
7. Pakistan (25,247,511 tons)
8. Ukraine (24,912,350 tons)
9. Germany (22,172,100 tons)
10. Turkey (20,500,000 tons)

I also thought and asked, if Ukraine had no more wheat production, would the world have a food crisis and hunger, Of course, I answered no, the second world war was worse than the invasion of Russia vs. Ukraine, but not as bad as it is currently reported.

If food growers adopted a crypto token which was backed by food commodities and guaranteed a static exchange rate for a set number of tomatos, potatos, per token.

That could be a good format for future food emergencies.

In my opinion this is not necessary, vegetables and fruits/tokens.

What needs to be maintained at this time is not the exchange rate / token, but land and security to be able to produce more wheat for food needs in the future, the token also doesn't work if the potato production region is messy.

[DrBeer]

Yep, Ukraine mined the way out of Odessa, fearing a Russian landing. This was announced in early March by the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on his Facebook page. Later, of course, Ukraine tried to blame everything on Russia, but it didn’t work out.

I beg your pardon - as always, you pulled out a piece of text, and now you also lied, saying that you had mined the Black Sea area! And all in order to try once again to justify the world terrorist - Russia! And it's easy to prove, very simple!
1. Ukraine mined by setting "minefields", but ... COAST and COASTAL zone (up to 1 km, from the coastline), so that the landing force could not set foot on the ground, and not disrupt maritime traffic throughout the region.
2. Ukraine did not mine the coastal zone with free-floating mines.

Items 1 and 2 are verbatim in the FB post you linked to. I quote verbatim the entire description of the warning so that everyone can see your next "cute", but primitive lie

So, the original phrases sound like this:
The coastal defense system includes the mining of certain territories (not the water area), where the enemy can make an amphibious landing.
Therefore, we ask you NOT to MOVE along the territory of the COAST (this is the land part) of the Odessa region. It's not safe for your life.
We urge fishermen and boats not to move NEAR the SHORE of the Odessa region, so as not to put themselves at risk, and not to fall under possible fire and minefields.

And most importantly, Ukraine used anchor mines to mine the COAST, because. near the coast, there is often noticeable excitement and currents, and free-floating mines will leave the mining zone in a few days and will not fulfill their main goal - protecting a given territory.

Yes, well, and the best proof is that by marking the mines that were found off the coast of Turkey and Romania, it easily became clear that these were mines that were located in the warehouses of the Ukrainian Navy in Crimea, and were captured by Russian terrorists back in 2014, during the occupation of Crimea .

I told you - do not try to lie primitively, and even referring to the source that you misrepresented, having previously pulled out a small part of the information. Not a very nice act for an adult!

In the dialogue of adults, it is customary not to count the arguments, but to weigh them. I provided a prooflink, and you issued a long-winded and unfounded tirade in response, falsely accusing me of distorting the facts. Do not do it this way. Ukraine mined the entrance to Odessa with old mines, which were torn from anchors during a storm and scattered across the Black Sea. Your accusations of Russia in this are groundless.

ps By the way, according to one of the versions, the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the missile cruiser Moscow, was blown up on such a mine torn from the anchor.

Do you always conduct a dialogue - read only yourself? I gave ARGUMENTS. That Ukraine mined potential landing zones, on the ground, and fixed mines, in the nearest water area. And those who sailed to the Bosphorus were in the warehouses of the Black Sea Fleet of Ukraine and were captured during the occupation of Crimea. And now, please proof that Ukraine mined the water area with "old mines that were washed away by the waves"?


PS about the "Moscow" trough - well, of course, 1 unfortunate, ancient Ukrainian mine (according to your imagination), sent the FLAGSHIP of the Black Sea Fleet to the bottom of the second most powerful army in the world! 

[Sithara007]

~~~
PS about the "Moscow" trough - well, of course, 1 unfortunate, ancient Ukrainian mine (according to your imagination), sent the FLAGSHIP of the Black Sea Fleet to the bottom of the second most powerful army in the world!

As far as I know, the flagship (Moskva) was sunk with a missile, and not with a mine. Ukrainian sources have themselves admitted to planting mines near the port of Odessa, as during the early days of war it was believed that the Russian forces would make an amphibian landing there. But the Russians never carried out these attacks and in the end, the Ukrainian merchant vessels got impacted. Wheat prices, mean while are now inching towards the $500 per tonne level (if they haven't crossed that level already). Back in 2019-20, the prices were around $200 per tonne.

[DrBeer]

Yep, Ukraine mined the way out of Odessa, fearing a Russian landing. This was announced in early March by the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on his Facebook page. Later, of course, Ukraine tried to blame everything on Russia, but it didn’t work out.

I beg your pardon - as always, you pulled out a piece of text, and now you also lied, saying that you had mined the Black Sea area! And all in order to try once again to justify the world terrorist - Russia! And it's easy to prove, very simple!
1. Ukraine mined by setting "minefields", but ... COAST and COASTAL zone (up to 1 km, from the coastline), so that the landing force could not set foot on the ground, and not disrupt maritime traffic throughout the region.
2. Ukraine did not mine the coastal zone with free-floating mines.

There are over 400 mines in the black sea area. So Russia plant them to prevent their own landing? That didn't sound totally idiotic? If Ukraine only set minefields in the coastal zone then who place those mines? When FSB is accusing Ukraine to put those mines in the black sea ( which is logical by determining the situation) but Ukraine denied it.

I do not trust what the Russian or Ukrainian side said. If I justify the situation and possibilities then putting mines in the black sea from Ukrainian is more logical to me.

I don't know what has gone wrong with the Russia - it is a rich country and have oil and gas resources.
Why are they putting themselves in trouble? They should stay happy and live and let live - YOLO

It's the same with Russia! It's just that you, as a normal person, do not understand the concept of the "Russian world". No, this is not to become really the best, strongest, respected. The concept of the "Russian world" is to steal everything and everyone, to do nothing at "home", but to invest efforts to prevent the neighbors from living well! They cannot allow life to flourish around them, and they will use any method, only to prevent the development and improvement of the standard of living of their neighbors. It's hard to measure this, it looks like complete idiocy, but it's a fact! If you just look at the history of Russia over the past 20 years - this is the theft of the budget, the usurpation of power, and attempts to strangle the development of neighboring countries (Ichkeria, Moldova, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Ukraine, ...)

[doomloop]

As per the United States Department of Agriculture, for the period of 2022-23, Ukraine is estimated to produce 21.5 million tonnes of wheat, which is 35% down when compared to the production for last year. On the other hand, Russian production is estimated to go up by 5% to 80.6 million tonnes. They will be exporting more than half of this export (42.3 million tonnes). These numbers mean that Russia will be exporting 4 times more wheat compared to Ukraine for 2022-23. Considering the increased price levels of wheat ($495 per tonne for April 2022), the Russian government will be receiving a few billion USD from export duties alone.

Like most people predict, they could definitely end up making a lot more profit during this war, the whole sanctions and war thing caused the prices of oil, gas, wheat all gone up, meaning they are making a killing out of this war. However, you have to understand that politically speaking, this gave a message to all other nations, saying "find someone else, Russia is the enemy now" and that is going to hurt them a lot in the next decade or two.

Wheat will be handled one way or another for now, we are going to find wheat either directly from Russia, or from a third party that buys from Russia, like oil. However, if we start to see some eastern bloc, even some Asian nations turn into fully wheat builders, do not be shocked.