I would argue that strict scientific criteria can be used to predict a election result fairly accurately. The only question is whether it is idiologically wanted. After the election 2016, some newspapers and polling institutes admitted that they probably lived in a bubble. The bubble primarily referred to so-called liberal areas on the east and west coasts and mostly ignored the heart and mainland. Institutes which were more openly to other opinions did a far better prediction, for example the Universtiy of California => https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20161108-story.html (which by the way was critized by some media for the good poll results for Trump before the election). After observing in recent years that many of such liberal journalists have moved out of their bubble and also looked at other opinions in the country more strongly, it has recently seemed to me as if this is being reversed, also due to the latest political developments. For this reason, I think that current polls do not reflect the reality. are you saying pollsters are exaggerating trump's chances of winning this time? That's right we shouldn't trust polls because it is not accurate and even if someone is on the top like clinton on 2016 presidential election, nobody can predict what will happens next just like that clinton is on the top but during the day of the announcement of the winner, it turns out that trump is the one who won on the election.
i think the bookies can offer additional insight since their odds are largely based on how their punters bet. bookies may be in their own bubble but it's at least a different bubble than pollsters exist in. shortly before the election, books were giving trump a 20% chance of winning. according to william hill, 75% of stake money was being bet on clinton at the time. https://money.com/donald-trump-2016-election-win-gambling-bets/it's easy to forget that trump winning 1 out of 5 times =/= clinton was guaranteed victory. it's just like losing with pocket aces vs another pocket pair---it happens all the time. the pollster who predicted a 99% chance for clinton was an idiot, but those predicting 70-80% chances may actually have been right. |
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I almost forgot does anyone have opinions on what they would do here. I forgot to pop it into equihash and see where I am at. With a pot like this I don't feel like flatting the 4-bet jam and call, is a good play as I'm left with 9 BB and am pot committed. It feels like it's a Jam or a fold. It's been up for a while and I'll just let you know what I did. I folded. I'm also curious on what you think about me flatting(calling) the 3-bet as opposed to Jamming not much option for a 4-bet.
So I have been trying to find this hand for a couple days and it's gone. I have been trying to adjust and catch myself in spots where my pocket pairs might be behind. I'd like to get thoughts on this spot. This is about 40 people off the money. I am sitting around the bubble for position at the moment.
Villain 1 UTG 22 BB Raises to 2.5 BB Folds to
Villain-2 BTN 39 BB Raises to 8.3 BB
Hero SB 31 BB Calls
Villain 1 Jams 22BB to call
Villain 2 Calls 22 BB
Hero with TT Huh? 13.7 BB to call Pot size is roughly 53 BB i'm folding there most times, then kicking myself when villains both show AX hands.  given generic ranges i think you're winning there maybe 1/3 of the time at showdown multi-way? being only in for 0.5bb and with very little fold equity vs villain 2, and with villain 1's range being a bit of a wild card, i think we can walk away. just too much to invest preflop IMO..... |
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@iv4n off to an early chip lead---dropped a KK vs QQ cooler on @CCwatcher420 and now has nearly double the starting stack. his cards always seem to hold.  i'm card dead myself. i've seen only AJo and a suited connector so far, missed the flop. blinds are early yet and everyone is still alive..... Just for the lulz, I'll offer a 2500 chips knockout on myself. Gl to all!
cheers. now i'm gunning for ya! yikes, only 18 hours to go. i better get to sleep early tonight. lots going on this week, i'm quite sleep deprived.....
No, no, no. You go out and get yourself sloppy drunk then play from your phone. I can't have some left field plays coming out tomorrow and messing me up, I've only been studying drunk figment plays. I'll just suck out on the good ones.  no hangover today, just bleary-eyed and sucking down coffee.  EDIT: first knockout of the game, @Hhampuz takes out @CCwatcher420, all-in preflop.  |
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even bitfinex is doing these "source of funds" checks even as they hide out in the BVI. the crypto wild west is basically dead. if the seychelles exchanges (bitmex, binance, poloniex) are ever brought into line, it'll be completely dead. that might be a matter of jurisdiction. they've been doing the mugshot thing for at least a year now on bittrex.com (USA). the OP of this thread is a global (non-USA) customer. |
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Last time before the final game we had hot discussions, Efi made a timer... This time it's really quiet, like before some big storm! yikes, only 18 hours to go. i better get to sleep early tonight. lots going on this week, i'm quite sleep deprived..... everybody please check that thread and chime in re buy-in size, league prizes/structure and all that good stuff. we need some consensus if any changes are gonna be made. see you guys at the final table tomorrow, and good luck! |
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i dunno what to make of it. it feels super irrational. even if the jobs numbers improved last month, we're still at high double digit unemployment with stimulus measures expiring soon. i don't see the market pricing in the future drops in earnings. when will they?
the coronavirus has been overshadowed in the news cycle by the george floyd protests, but cases are back on the rise in both the USA and worldwide. the protests could speed things up in that department too. the threat of a second wave still looms heavy and the market hasn't priced it in IMO.
EXACTYL! The headlines today were "DOW up 800 points because of better than expect unemployment numbers" Economists were expecting 19% and only got 13%? In what world is THAT GOOD? How is everything this world/USA going through (pandemic, world of economic pain, rioting) justify ONLY a 10% discount from the ATH? There's literally no signs of stopping. THis rally is incredible. I want to get in but IDK if I'm too late. I 've been telling myself this for weeks I should go for it... Really kicking myself when $300 Calls for June 17 were only $80 a contract.... I would've made SO much money by now. oh well, just be glad you weren't shorting or buying puts in april like people i know. re "too late".....a couple strong growth stocks that are late to the party but also made huge breakouts this past thursday/friday are PLUG and AMAT. there are no guarantees on this roller coaster but i think they might pull an AMZN and make a new ATH before reality sets in re the true state of the economy. interesting reading: https://www.barrons.com/articles/11-growth-stocks-that-arent-too-late-to-buy-yet-51591373760 |
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I wonder how many of you who made comments here are still with coinbase ?
i made an account with them several years ago. being that i also avoid KYC wherever possible and loathe the idea of giving another exchange my docs, i feel to some extent stuck with them. i use them infrequently for USDC conversion-->fiat withdrawal. i'm extremely careful about what coins i deposit with them, and i also make sure to stay under their tax reporting threshold. i'm aware of the risks and try to mitigate them the best i can. unfortunately the p2p market really sucks at this point. Every centralised service will end up like this eventually. The difference is that most yield to it with some reluctance rather than running towards it like they are.
honorable mention for gemini:  |
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in another blow to the cuomo bet, biden officially clinched the democratic nomination today after winning in guam, crossing the 1991 delegates required to win on the first DNC ballot. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/06/politics/joe-biden-democratic-nomination/index.htmlbetfair is still showing combined chances of trump or biden at 94%. i'm sorta surprised this gap hasn't closed up more than it has. correct me if i'm wrong but i don't think biden can lose via a traditional brokered convention now. given that the sexual assault allegations already lost momentum, he would basically have to drop out for medical reasons. that's a long shot but not impossible. assuming he makes it through the DNC, then due to the medical angle his VP pick probably matters. biden has indicated he plans to pick a woman as a running mate---and at this rate i'm betting on a black woman---which doesn't work for the cuomo bet either. |
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an interesting interpol report on wasabi wallet popped up in that jameson lopp thread: https://www.tbstat.com/wp/uploads/2020/06/Europol-Wasabi-Wallet-Report.pdfkey takeaways: wasabi coinjoins are easy to recognize but cannot be de-mixed unless you make a mistake like re-consolidating outputs afterwards. "suspects who avoid major slip-ups have a very high probability of staying undetected" No one should be remotely surprised. The moment you enter Coinbase you're dropped straight onto the corporate cock from a great height and start rotating at speeds of up to 3000 rpm. They are the epitome of wannabe establishment, and wannabes are that much keener to get in The Man's good graces.
All users should plan accordingly.
do you think coinbase is angling to integrate their own user data into their analytics software? i assume that would violate various privacy laws. i find this all depressing but also unsurprising. coinbase has been establishing a finger in every pie---wallet, exchange, merchants, custody, OTC, etc---while bowing to regulators at every turn. why not blockchain analysis too? |
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Instead of a V shaped recover, it is going to be more like W shaped recovery. And now really even a W shape more like WWWWWWW shape because we are going to feel the hurt of all this pandemic over and over again, there will be results and consequences of it for a long time.
This is what I was really thinking... but this way past the 68% fib retracement level - we hit that around 280 if I'm not incorrect... this is literally just hysteria... i can't believe the s&p500 is back in the 3100s. less than 10% from the ATH now, insanity!  bears are getting destroyed. RIP shorters. Have you seen the moves being made lately? AAL up 60%, airliners just SOARING - it's a weird world when Buffet sold the bottom.
i dunno what to make of it. it feels super irrational. even if the jobs numbers improved last month, we're still at high double digit unemployment with stimulus measures expiring soon. i don't see the market pricing in the future drops in earnings. when will they? the coronavirus has been overshadowed in the news cycle by the george floyd protests, but cases are back on the rise in both the USA and worldwide. the protests could speed things up in that department too. the threat of a second wave still looms heavy and the market hasn't priced it in IMO. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/04/coronavirus-cdc-is-worried-americans-arent-following-its-advice-as-us-cases-continue-to-rise.htmlhttps://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/05/world/coronavirus-cases-rising-faster-intl/index.html |
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I am not entirely sure about the 40 million people losing their job part. the number is based on initial unemployment claims since the pandemic/lockdowns started: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/28/unemployment-claims-coronavirus/presumably some of those people have returned to work since initially filing. the official unemployment rate actually dropped in may with 2.5 million jobs added, a great surprise to many. the jobs data was published rather deceptively though. the labor dept said the official unemployment rate dropped to 13.3% but in the fine print: The Labor Department cautioned that data-collection issues that have plagued the agency throughout the crisis continued last month. Some temporarily jobless workers were characterized as “employed” in May; had they been counted correctly, the department said, the unemployment rate would have topped 16 percent. so the real unemployment rate was over 16%. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/05/business/economy/jobs-report.htmlthe dow and s&p500 surged on the news that the unemployment rate dropped. i still think it's premature to celebrate. it's obvious payrolls have been propped up by the bailout loan program. as those loans get phased out, we'll see how sustainable the recovery really is. |
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nothing comes close to the final poker scene in rounders for me: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pLgEs6hjbGgmike discovers KGB's tell (the oreos), rubs it in his face to put him on tilt, then lets KGB's tilted aggression destroy him when he flops the nuts. there is no greater satisfaction in poker. |
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We should make it one tournament per week, played on Sunday. +1 If you get SwC to take that extra chips from the buy in, maybe we can make buy in 1500 chips, 1000 for the tournament, 250 for the grand table, 250 for the top 3 per points finished. This part is not really important for me personally but I saw some suggestions to that end i'm open to this. @Steamtyme does raise some good points though. we need to consider how to maximize participation. is an extra 300 chips per game (going towards league prizes) going to do that? it could keep players coming back to improve their standings, but it could also deter people entirely who don't feel they have a shot at top 3 to begin with. i suppose we could consider a flatter structure for the top x in points? @tyKiwanuka suggested expanding it to the top 9. my gut reaction was "that's too flat" but in reality there was a lot of competition for 5th-9th place so it could keep things interesting. thoughts? -5000 chips seems to work rather well for weekly tournaments so I would keep current chip/blinds structure
-10k chips for grand finale sounds reasonable +1 |
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it certainly doesn't help in any direct way. the only way it helps IMO is psychologically. it could make people more optimistic about an economic recovery. that could mean improved consumer confidence, which in turn could stimulate spending that is so badly needed by businesses. investors are just betting on a strong economic recovery. that doesn't guarantee they'll actually get one.Stock markets are only one facet of the economy while the rest is mainly from taxes which the working class contributes heavily to, and with some 40 million Americans currently unemployed, how would a bounce back in September be possible? I'm not a pessimist but all points signal south of what Trump likes to make it look like.
+1. he looks very out of touch when he celebrates the stock market while remaining silent on insane unemployment levels. |
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i'm sure the pendulum will swing back to some degree, but the trump-biden reversal is an incredible sight to watch. Yep, it's amazing and I am not sure, what is the main driving factor here in the last days, because I have a hard time imagining it's "just" the protests/riots. Those riots and looting I would even have thought to play into the hands of Trump tbh. his recent attempts at appealing to christian voters were very poorly received, with religious leaders---including the incredibly influential televangelist pat robertson---publicly speaking out against him. that dude has a massive conservative christian audience. https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/03/politics/pat-robertson-donald-trump/index.htmlhttps://www.cnn.com/2020/06/02/politics/trump-bible-churches-protests/index.htmlopinions of trump among religious conservatives were already declining. it's looking worse by the day. re the law & order angle, maybe under normal circumstances it would help him, but on top of his terrible optics around race relations i believe underneath the surface of these protests there is deep and widespread economic distress underlying. as i've said before, trump is taking a massive political gamble by choosing now to spearhead an austerity movement. his administration is strongly pushing back against economic relief measures, they are cutting food stamp benefits, etc despite the fact that so much of his core voter base is poor and likely to be struggling because of the pandemic. the optics are just terrible re pretty much everything he is doing right now. i do expect that pendulum of public opinion to swing back but he should seriously consider going into damage control mode instead of being ultra polarizing and inflammatory. he is just being crucified by public opinion on both sides of the aisle. religious conservatives =/= trump-ites and he needs to stop taking them for granted. I think it's the fact, that Biden came out of his cave and is more present in the media now - showing up healthy and with some fighting spirit, after having been invisible for ages. yup and tbh i'm wondering how long biden can keep that up. he has indicated plans to become much more involved (finally leaving his house, delivering lengthier speeches, etc)---lots of chances to massively screw up ahead of the DNC in august.  |
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I'm really amazed he started this with a really fundamental error, genuinely surprised how he could make some mistakes. Negative contracts don't mean producers will pay you 30$ to show up with a barrel and fill it up at the end of the month, those are contracts in which as a contract buyer or investor you are willing to pay -x to get that oil out of your hands. So, it's not really like powerplants that use oil get paid to burn it, not do drillers pay you when you take that oil. Second, oil is an important source of electric energy, https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3 Petroleum (total) 19 0.5% Plus, you can't start building powerplants just based on the prices from April, with prices over 30$ it doesn't make sense to burn oil, you can burn coal. his theory IMO was based on the idea that oil prices are cratering longer term, not staying above $30 a barrel. he's not saying april contract settlement in and of itself would cause this transformation. i don't think he's talking about power plants being built is he? existing oil-fired plants from decades past already run way below capacity due to high oil prices, so there is excess capacity that could easily come online if there was a bigger collapse in oil prices. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31232So we already have excess capacity in electric energy, there is no point of starting to burn oil when you already have it produced and not consumed. there is excess oil already produced too. what matters in the end is what the final cost of electricity is. in theory, at low enough oil costs oil-fired plants can undercut other power producers, although i don't know enough to say what $/barrel cost (or length of time spent at those prices) it would take for his theory to play out. |
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Another news - SwC have confirmed to host a third Bitcointalk Series!!
great news. as always, i'm in! I have asked SwC to make it 10k chips - let's see if they can do it!
i always love deep stacks but it's cool either way. 5k stacks at this structure with a single table is plenty of time. I was thinking about this, in my opinion if we wish more players we need higher prize pool! Don't wish to sound ungrateful, but that's a reality. After first series some people quit, we have some new players, but more people left than joined. Of course higher prize pool will help keeping regular players in too! that may just be the effect of the end of lockdowns, people going back to school and work, summertime weather and vacations. considering we got a bigger prize pool this time (0.01 BTC ticket added) but a smaller turnout, i think we might be close to the limit. we can't expect SwC to keep throwing more money in. if we were to do higher buy-ins, maybe do a mix of different buy-ins throughout. maybe do a couple at the start of the series and see how it affects turnout. |
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i'm sure the pendulum will swing back to some degree, but the trump-biden reversal is an incredible sight to watch. if you like trump in november, bookies are giving you better and better odds every day. when i started tracking this, it was 49-42 trump. now it's 51-43 biden. https://odds.watch/joe-biden-2020https://odds.watch/trump-2020unfortunately for the cuomo bet, momentum seems to be coalescing around biden. |
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miners don't buy oil and burn that to generate electricity, they buy electricity from electric companies. there are oil-fired power plants that generate and sell electricity. they usually operate at low capacity outside of peak demand seasons because high oil prices made them uneconomical long ago. low enough oil prices could considerably change that, allowing oil-fired plants to undercut competitors. this could draw in miners. how many months since the oil price tanked? 3 or 4 months?
how much electricity cost has lowered? zero! his theory is not that there would be uniform electricity price drops. the price would drop in places with gluts of oil and presumably oil-fired power plants that could absorb the supply. that's why he mentions the gulf coast, which has lots of oil-fired power plants and lots of tankers sitting on more oil than they know what to do with. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31232it's sort of a wild theory but not inconceivable. |
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I didn't really follow the last final. How long did it run??
i'm not positive but looking through the last thread, ~3 hours. quite long for a single table tournament. in fact, there will be bigger starting stacks this time..... |
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