In the investment and personal finance world, the term "passive" has a specific meaning that revolves around getting and/or receiving income without working - in other words an investment can earn a passive income because either it bears interest or it grows in value faster than the rate that value is withdrawn from it. 

It seems wrong and/or misleading to use the term "passive" as a way of describing how we are investing into something like bitcoin..  Sure there can be ways that we set up automated buys  or we could follow a system in which we invest every week no matter what from our discretionary/disposable income, yet I still would not describe that as passive, even if there might be some automation involved in it. 

Also, we could use income that comes from a passive source in order to invest into another asset such as investing into bitcoin from the proceeds of your property rent (presuming that you don't have to do any work for that property rent income)...

Sure, I might be quibbling about semantics, yet it seems to be frequent that guys are misusing the term "passive," and it can become quite confusing to either try to figure out what they are saying or what they mean, especially if they are most likely talking about income that they are receiving from working and maybe it does not even really matter so much from where they are getting their income because in the end, the amount of income that is coming in needs to be greater than the expenses in order to be able to invest with what is remaining and the remaining portion is described as disposable/discretionary income and so if they have $600 per month in disposable/discretionary income, they could be aggressive and invest at or near 100% of that into bitcoin or they could be more whimpy and invest only 10% or 20% of that into bitcoin.. so maybe you are suggesting a more whimpy approach is the same as passive, and I think that it is misleading to use the word passive when you might be talking about being less aggressive in the BTC accumulation approach.


Even though there are no guarantees in bitcoin, it seems quite likely that people who are thinking that BTC is at a current top and vulnerable to crashing, and so therefore they hesitate to buy BTC, and if they continue to hesitate to buy based on that kind of thinking which also relates to their thoughts of "being too late," then in 3-4 years if they still had not been buying BTC, they are likely going to see that bitcoin had landed in a place in which 5 digit bitcoin was not even available anymore and so those who had gotten in at current prices are looking like geniuses. 

Again, surely not guaranteed, yet it is way better to get some kind of position size into bitcoin rather than presuming from the mere fact that we are hitting ATHs that there needs to be any kind of correction from here or even that BTC prices need to return to these price levels once (or if) they decide to go up... and even this year, we well could be experiencing a BTC price range that is bouncing around $120k to $180k (with $60k price moves to the upside and downside over a few months).. .again, no guarantees of these kinds of scenarios, yet the ONLY way to benefit from those kinds of possibilities is to buy some bitcoin and/or buy exposure to bitcoin (if for some reason you are not ready, willing and/or able to buy bitcoin directly, which would be the preferred way to hold your cornz).


I think that you are suggesting that your sister-in-law gamble, and I think it is better to stick to long term investing of 4-10 years or longer, and if she wants to invest for shorter periods, then that is her choice, I would not get involved in her potential decisions to fuck around with shorter plays and/or gambling.  Yeah, she is free to make those kinds of choices, but there is no winning in getting involved in those kind of short-term plays that are less than 2 years, and it surely is discretionary regarding how much to put in, how to put it in and when to cash out.. and we are not talking about trading/gambling with your bitcoin in this thread, so fuck trading and gambling.. especially with bitcoin.

Now in regards to long term investing and a potential initial investment amount of $1k, then there could be some way of figuring out how to divide that in terms of Lump sum investing, DCA and buying on dip. So in that regard, it would be good to know what the discretionary income is for that person for the next 6 months and how much of that discretionary income are they willing to put into bitcoin.  Once you have the full number for the next 6 months, then you can figure out each of the three categories and also figure out the extent to which there is a preference to attempt to mostly front load the investment.

Let's say that the person has $1k right now and $200 per month over the next 6 months (so $1,200 coming in) and so that would be a total of $2,200 over 6 months... and yeah maybe she does not want to invest that much into bitcoin, yet if she is willing to put $1k into some investment right now, she must have some amount from her salary that she is willing to put into any investment on a regular basis, even if there might be a desire to skew the investment towards frontloading (buying now rather than deferring). 

The answers are not always straight forward, but those seem to be the kinds of choices, and if the investment is presumed to be 4-10 years or longer there might be some tentative thoughts about what to do after 6 months or just to keep in mind a tentative plan for 6 months and then perhaps to revisit the matter when the 6 months are about to run out in terms of if any adjustments need to be made in terms of continuing to put value into bitcoin, and if value is continued to be put in then any new value should also have a 4-10 year or longer investment timeline from the time that it is put in (rather than using the initial investment time).


Even though you are likely technically correct about the "profits," but you sound more like a trader and a person with a short term mindset if you are so maniacally focused on the "one thing" that you believe to be important.  Long term investors might still want to be profitable in the long term but they may also not be focused on whether they are short term profitable or not and/or getting distracted by those kinds of considerations. 

If anyone takes a bet on bitcoin in the long term they may well commit to it and hoping it to be profitable by the time they get to their 4-10 year or longer timeline in which they might change their strategies... while at the same time, they might be using their investment as a kind of hedge, in which any particular investment within their investment portfolio might not be profitable, but they cannot really know which parts of their investment might be profitable or not, but they are not necessarily focused on each of them being profitable at any given time, even thought they want their overall portfolio to be profitable and that the gains outweigh the losses including that they had chosen a good combination of products in their investment portfolio (I am not referring to putting shitcoins in your investment portfolio unless maybe you limit them to very small allocations, such as less than 10% (hopefully much less than) the size of your bitcoin allocation).


You make choices and bitcoin is risky, but it hedges against dollar-reliant investments, and so bitcoin is a good thing to have in your investment portfolio (as a kind of insurance) even if it might not end up working out in the long run.  And, so some of the more important questions would be how much to allocate into each kind of asset, and if you happen to be a beginner investor, you likely ONLY would end up having bitcoin and cash, and maybe after investing several years, then you might decide to start to diversify out to other assets (again not referring to shitcoins, though diversification generally means other kinds of asset classes, such as stocks, property, commodities, bonds and cash/cash equivalents). 


How many coins you have accumulated can make a lot of differences in terms of your investment choices, so lowcoiner are not in the same category as those who have accumulated a lot, and I would not even suggest that a low coiner is a good descriptor since low coiners might be some folks who are building their stash with aggressiveness but they still don't have enough coins, versus another kind of low coiner who is not aggressively even trying to accumulate coins....  So when I refer to low coiners, I tend to use the term derogatorily to refer to someone who is not even trying to accumulate coins.   On the other hand, I would not consider a person who is still in the earlier stages of his BTC accumulation to be a low coiner, even though he perceives himself to not have enough coins.


This part is true... it can take several years to start to get into profits, yet even the mere fact that you are in profits would not even necessarily start to mean that you need to sell any coins.  Right now, almost everyone is in profits as long as they had been buying and holding and not selling or using leverage, yet even though they are in profits, they may well be really far from their BTC accumulation goal, which may well mean that they are going to need to continue to buy for the next 4 years or even longer and then maybe at some point they well start to consider if they are starting to have enough BTC yet or not... If someone has ONLY been in bitcoin for a year, and they are accumulating around 10% of their income into bitcoin, they still might consider that they want to accumulate for around 10 years before they start to think about what to do next, yet in the meantime, they can also consider if they might want to increase their accumulation pace up to a higher level.. and so it could be difficult to figure out a way to either increase income and/or cut expenses in order to be able to stack more bitcoin harder in the beginning rather than spreading out their investment over 10 years or longer, yet at the same time, there is ONLY so much any individual is able to do in terms of increasing income and/or cutting expenses.


Bitcoin broke its ATH right around 4 days ago, and then it broke it again, so you have repeated the same factually inaccurate bullshit on a couple of occasions.  You might want to refer to Bitstamp when trying to figure out whether ATH has been breached or not and/or when.

yeah, there are various ways to keep up the streak that might be at or close to the top, or even there is a correction, but if we stay in the top 50-ish, then we could end up purging all of the sub-$60k results off of the table....

Surely it seems that there is a lot of ongoing buying pressure, and even if some folks consider possibilities that the ETF purchasers might either be lettuce hands or they might be playing us, I personally think those to be quite fringe and/or minority viewpoints that are not very likely to play out. 

You can look at some past charts at the end of October 2021, when the last of the $40ks were bumped off of the table, and even at that time we had close to 80 days that had touched upon $50k, so in the end, I am pretty sure that we had more than 100-days that had ended up landing in the $50ks, even though the $50k results were not all on the top 100 table at the same time.

Sure, we are at an ATH, but there is no evidence beyond almost pure baseless conjecture that we are at either a local top or another ATH.  In other words, if you either are a low coiner or a no coiner, you better get your off your ass and buy some bitcoin - otherwise you are not prepared for up, and it is not going to do you any good to prepare for down if down does not end up happening.  If down does end up happening, and you bought at current prices ($68k-ish), then hopefully either you have some dry powder to buy some more or you just HODL through the period in which the BTC price is lower than your purchase price.

Hopefully anyone getting into BTC for investment purposes has a timeline of 4-10 years or longer, and if they happen to be a newbie to bitcoin and just learning about bitcoin, it is way better to get started rather than waiting around, especially you likely don't know too much about bitcoin if you happen to be a newbie, and getting involved through buying and establishing a stake in it, is going to help to inform you in a more active way rather than sitting on the sidelines and waiting for something (such as a price drop) that may or may not end up happening.

I would not call selling small parts at various points as the BTC price going up to be cashing out and/or taking profits, even though the BTC is more in profits if you sell on the way up versus if you had sold prior to the price going up.   And you also have to assess the size of your stash.. so maybe if you ONLY have 1 or 2 BTC and you are trying to get to fuck you status, then you might not be in a position to be selling BTC.

So for example if a person was right above fuck you status he were to have 66 BTC, and I decided to sell 2% every time that the BTC price increased by 40%, then he surely would not be eating very much into his stash.   He could even decide to sell 0.5% of his bitcoin every single month without reference to the price (except maybe some hesitancy to sell if the BTC price were below or near the 200WMA, so I don't see the problem with those kinds of sales.  He could actually do both things if he wanted, or maybe shave the percentages in regards to how much he is selling if he is worried about a possibility that he might be selling too much.

Now if a person is selling with an intention to buy back at lower prices, or if he is not sure if he has enough BTC or if he is still in his accumulation stages, then he might not be in a position to be selling his BTC - because he is anticipating trying to buy back at lower prices and he does not have enough and he would be gambling rather than acting prudent because the BTC price might not go back down.

Of course, we already heard of guys selling some of their BTC because they want to purchase some BIG ticket items, and surely those are personal choices and maybe they have already exhausted various other fiat resources that they have, and so all that they have left is to sell some of their bitcoin.  I am not sure if I would agree with that, but guys surely have to make those kinds of decisions while realizing that they might be better to defer those kinds of choices a bit longer  and they might not have to spend as many BTC, but then again, we cannot really know for sure either, even though a lot of us longer time bitcoiners are tending to see that BTC seems to be in quite a bullish set up right now in terms of facts on the ground, and so we might not be able to really know if we are being tricked into something or if our BTC are likely to be worth 2x to 3x more in the coming 6-9 months give or take 3 months.. and even the possibility of other scenarios of BTC getting into 5x to 15x price territories in 9-18 months give or take 3 months..

I feel that I have never been into selling too many BTC too soon, because it has frequently been my position that there is a need to get to a position of over accumulation before you are even in a position to start to sell your BTC, and surely we can have differing viewpoints in regards to when we might cross over the threshold of being in a state of over accumulation.  There are some guys who believe that over accumulation is not possible, so I think that we can agree to disagree on some of those kinds of seemingly personal preference matters.

I also personally believe that for an overwhelming majority of normies there is a need to attempt to fit into both worlds in order to have more options and probably not to be targeted, so that could be part of the rationale for having some diversification in assets, because there may even be some targeting of normies who don't have accounts in both worlds who might try to exclusively stay within bitcoin circles, which ends up giving fewer rather than more options, even though on paper some of the bitcoiners might have millions of dollars, but they might not have had developed easy on and off ramps.


Yeah.. even though I might not agree with some  of your formulas, sometimes, but yes, each of us should be able to figure out some formulas that allow us to feel comfortable with the quantity of BTC that we are cashing out and the quantity that we are allowing to ride, and there could be some points that we might gather that we are selling too many coins, and we have to cut back and use funds from other sources... but yeah, if you give yourself a budget to sell 5% of your stash between $72k and $92k, then that could potentially be reasonable, especially if you had not sold more than 2% between $36k and $55k, and maybe this is assuming that your average cost per coin is not any more than $18k, so your lowest priced sales that started at $36k already had a 100% profits and you were ONLY shaving off 2% of your stash between $36k and $55k.. and then when the price traveled between $76k and $92k (presuming it gets there) you plan to shave off another 5%... so part of the rational might be that as long as you have more than enough BTC, and your costs per BTC are largely less than $18k per BTC, then you have quite a few options, and you are taking out relatively low amounts of BTC and you still well might be allowing your BTC to compound in value if the price continues to go up.

And so we could come to differing numbers in terms of how much would be permissible to sell, which may also vary depending on where you are at life, and maybe even if you might have other systems in place in regards to how many BTC you would be allowing yourself to sell - for example monthly... such as my earlier example of up to 0.5% per month.. but at the same time if you are employing both systems then you might end up selling more bitcoin than you need to sell, so then you start to cheer for downity because you oversold and you are expecting to buy back cheaper, which might not end up happening, especially given our current price location including that currently we are still in the middle of noman's land.

What I suspect might happen with you, Phillip, is that you probably are cashing out under various systems and rationale, and you likely are not really getting a lot of compounding effects out of your BTC, even though you are shaving off profits from time to time..and I would conclude shaving off too many profits... but yeah, sure maybe in the end whatever you are doing is making sense in terms of keeping the shaving off within acceptable limits for an elderly guy, but might not be acceptable for someone who might be younger and be needing to defer more of his gratifications.. and someone who might not have had accumulated enough BTC.

Too bad for the guys selling at these prices (and I am not specifically trying to pick on you), because sometimes there are guys who might have bought a lot of coins in 2021, and maybe even if they continued to buy coins in 2022 and 2023, they might not have really bought aggressively enough to bring down their costs per BTC because they were thinking that they had enough BTC, and so now they are finally in profits, and some of those guys will be selling too many coins too soon, merely based on their being in profits, which is probably not going to end up being a very good decision in the longer run, especially if they were to have ways to just continue to hold their coins and maybe even continuing to buy on dips, even though maybe they are no longer in the buying mood and they are just looking when to sell.. which over the years we saw a lot of those guys.

We saw them in late 2016 and early 2017 (when the BTC price passed back through the lower $1ks and soon hit the $2ks after a few months) guys selling way too many coins too soon, and we also saw them in late 2020 early 2021 (when the BTC prices crossed over $19,666 and ended up hitting $40k in a matter of a few weeks), and surely in 2022 and into 2023, we ended up getting a correction below the $$19,666 earlier ATH, but in the whole scheme of things those sub $19,666 ended up being buying opportunities that might not have been usual to come.

I think we may well be hitting something similar again, and so we coudl get some decent price appreciation and we may or may not get corrections back to these levels.. but none of us really know and it is much more difficult to see while we are going through it and surely some guys might have some frustration with the BTC investment, including a kind of knowledge that there has already been a lot of violent volatility, and there are decent odds that similar kinds of violent volatility are going to continue, including various likely ongoing barriers to on and off ramps that can also cause frustrations for guys who don't really want to be stuck without abilities to cash out at their will.

Yep.. we had these kinds of dynamics before.. in 2021 when we were watching the 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 number dropping off the list little by little.. and so who knows if they can be taken out in one 100 day streak.. or maybe there is some up and down and it takes 140 or 160 days before all of the 2021 numbers are purged from the table... and we even know it does tend to be a process that is resolved right away, and some of the higher 2021 numbers could end up staying on the table for longer than we might anticipate. .the novelty does not seem to really wear out.   

Only 34 months late. 

It could have been worse.

Think about it.  The time just flew right by.  Does not even seem that long ago.

I am not sure if you are using the term "passive income" differently from how it would usually be used.  Generally speaking passive income is meant to be a kind of income that a guy would receive from investments, meaning that he does not have to do much if any work for the income, and sure passive income might be achieved based on past work that the guy did and then he invested money and was later able to live off of the income earned from the investments.

Sometimes there might be disagreement in regards to how little work someone might need to do in order for the income to qualify as passive income, so for example, his merely keeping track of his income (bookkeeping) probably would not be counted as having to work for the income, but maybe if he bought property, but he is managing the property, then the rents might be quasi-passive, depending on how much work he is having to do in order for the income to keep coming in.


If a person might have between $800 and $2k per month of income (maybe most commonly a income of $1,200) and $1,000 worth of monthly expenses, then his variance of income may well cause him to keep an extra float, so that he always has enough for his monthly expenses, even during months that his income is less than his expenses.  His investment would come from the discretionary/disposable income which seem to usually be $200 per month or $50 per week, and yeah he could max it out on buying bitcoin, or he could use some other strategies, but if he already has 6 month of emergency funds (maybe $6k), and maybe another 3-6 months of float and/or reserves, he might have room to be more flexible including perhaps sometimes dipping into his float and/or reserves to buy extra bitcoin and/or perhaps other times deciding to allow his float and/or reserves to build up to higher levels.

That sounds more like a trading strategy rather than an investment strategy.

Unless you are talking about investing in bitcoin and then just leaving your investment sit for a period of time, such as a year or two or maybe a cycle or 6 years. 

It is not easy to leave an investment alone, except I know some guys who left when they had invested in BTC, and they started to see the BTC price correcting, and so they left with the purpose of not thinking about their investment for a few years while the market corrected and potentially returned to an ATH 1, 2 or 3 years down the road.

Are you implying that we might b correcting from here?  I have my doubts about any kind of imminent and/or meaningful correction, even though I realize that anything can happen, especially with some short-term surprises that end up having lingering effects - and those kinds of things could end up happening in either price direction.

Hahahaha

Who would-a-thunk?

Proudhon=troll



And, I thought that we should have had taken him seriously.


Get your cheap cornz while you still can!!!!!!!!


I think it will pump again soon,^tm, or alternatively it might not, but still $100k before the halvening could be possible, or maybe it might take longer or it might take less than that. 

@B_Bun_ I think that your statement about it pumping is very observant (at least at this moment in time), but still it may or may not be a very accurate statement, given dragonvslinux considers that the EFT pumpeners might be fakeners (or perhaps lettuce hands).

 Do you guys think I might need to say what I just said a bit MOAR differently?  I mean substantively or stylistically?


Careful in regards to getting too excited about gold - especially since bitcoin has been eating gold's lunch and likely continuing to eat gold's lunch.

Sure, if you want to keep 1-3% of the size of your bitcoin stash in gold, in order to prepare for Armageddon or something like that, then sure maybe that might be acceptable to the extent that you are no just wasting your time and money and perhaps overly diluting your bitcoin investment.


Well, if you were planning that far out, you may well need to account for inflation and/or debasement of the dollar/pound or any other fiat that you might be using. 

According to my updated fuck you status chart that I have not yet posted, it appears that mid-2035 you would need to be at about 17 BTC in order to have an entry-level fuck you status of $7.5 million.

I tend to view my chart in terms of today's dollars, even though I understand that it might not be realistic - but it is a way to attempt to base oneself - so in some sense the debasement of the dollar and other fiats would cause the nominal value in 2035 to be different - but still should be equivalent of $7.5 million in today's dollars to have right around 17 BTC by mid-2035 - if that might be possible and/or feasible for you.

Were you thinking a different number? or maybe you were combining bitcoin and other assets and/or currencies, then of course, you would not need as much BTC if you were planning to have other assets and/or currencies also in your investment portfolio at that time.

Oh?  Now, I see that too.  I went to Yefi's old tables to see if there was anything that I could see linked, and yeah, you are correct, none of the other four prior currency pairs have data contained therein, and it seems that the current and the historical data is no longer on that site.. and also it seems that they don't have any data for other currency pairs, so that is too bad.... 

and, so the data would have to come from some other source, if there might be any service that is compiling that kind of data.   I don't know of anything, so far, and maybe we all have to keep our eyes open if there might be another site compiling and/or keeping such data.

Hopefully, bitcoincharts.com at least continue to keep the dollar/BTC pair data available, since so many of us get so many pleasures by watching this kinds of data... like I mentioned earlier, this traded volume data seems more accurate/reflective of the daily BTC/dollar trade activities rather than just looking at the high and the low prices for the day.

It is not completely speculation as in a guessing game, and I did not even say that they are strong hands, but I said that they are more likely to be more sticky when they are getting in that kind of product...and my understanding is that they are mostly retail rather than institutions, since it takes institutions way longer to get in and institutions are even more sticky than retail, so the fact that they are retail makes them more likely to have weak hand moments as you asserted, but even if we concede that a decent number of them might easily be weak hands, it still does not support that they are going to be getting in and out as fast as you suggested... and probably, I have no reason to change any of my earlier assessment when we are largely just talking in generalities, in which i think that price pressure is going to continue uppity, and even if you get a correction, it is not likely to be anywhere near your expectations as you currently stated and as you had historically been asserting and continuing to have to move your price targets uppity.  Sucks to be you in this particular trade..


That is your level of real.. not my level of real.  I think that i am being real when I assign low probabilities to the expectation of going into the $40ks or $30ks and maybe even the lower $50ks is quite a stretch.  I might give you 50/50 in regards to the lower $50ks.. .. but hey, it is hard to know.. because quickie crashes can happen, and we just had a quickie crash to the upper $50ks just few days ago.


Of course.  I don't think I misunderstood you on that point.


I am not quite sure what you mean by believe/denial stage.


Yeah, but I don't really care either way.  I am just saying what I think will happen.  You already bet on down and then you seem to be investing more than warranted into that.  I don't tend to get so attached to short term price moves... I just get a bit of an inclination that the odds of going up in no man's land becomes closer to 60/40 rather than 50/50.. and so it might not even be a great difference in the odds, so I hardly even change anything that I tend to normally do, even though I might talk about the ideas of less resistance when in noman's land, even though there could be a lot of battles and even a lot of rapid movement due to inability to keep BTC on the order books... but still does not mean that the trend is anything other than UPpity.. .. with slightly increased odds of up rather than down.


I agree that we might have a crazy couple of years, but I still get the sense of going up for the next 18 months or so... and yeah, there could be various places to reassess along the way, and yeah, you could be correct that the top plays out more quickly than expected.  Seems like a big so what to me.  I am not changing very much that I do based on if the top might end up in 2024 versus 2025.

The main thing for me is that I expect the 200-WMA to continue to move up and yeah, maybe every 6 months I might need to adjust what I had placed in [urlhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5376945.msg58719591#msg58719591]my entry-fuck you status chart[/url] to be more or less conservative than the numbers that I had already placed therein.  I already have to adjust the short term to be less conservative.


Ok


Premature does not mean that the buy support is not going to keep up with the premature upward movements in price.  I have no clue, but it seems that there is more than enough current buy pressure that likely needs to cause the price to 2x or 3x from here in order to get into a more sustainable place.


Bitcoin does not tend to do fake out highs after 2 years of consolidation.. but yeah, sure anything can happen.


I am not going to try to call any of those kinds of specifics.  All I know is we are trending up until we are not... and in order to keep trending up buy support has to keep up.  and that could last 6-18 months give or take 5.5 months.


It does not seem like it is going too fast for me... but I tend to be wrong on these kinds of matters.. so I try not to get over-reliant on my expectations.


If are trying to carve out a potential bet then we probably would bet on the correction that you are expecting rather than if there is going to be a top or when the top is going to be and then the correction from the supposed top.. I don't know.. There could be something bettable if you are saying that the BTC price will go below $30k in the next year... that would probably be bettable.  

Unless you are saying that the top in 2024 is going to be higher than any top that we might have in 2025, then that could potentially be bettable too.  Any bet terms would have to be somewhat unambiguous with a price and a time, and I don't have strong feelings on those kinds of things, so if I did bet, it would either be for funzies or to off-set some kind of seemingly outrageous assertion that you end up making.  hahahahahaha


So you are  saying that if the price goes up to $100k before the halvening or some other specific time that you consider to be too soon, then we will get a 50% correction from that and then get stuck in some kind of range for a year or for the rest of 2024?  Seems like a lot of legs to that kind of potential bet... we probably would need to narrow it down to numbers (rather than percentages) if we were going to make it bettable from my perspective.


between $120k and $180k to account for the increased demand and seemingly ongoing deficiencies in liquidity.. .. but I am not really saying a few months, but instead that that could well end up being the price range in the latter part of 2024. I don't know.  I don't really have too many specifics, just a general sense that we need 2x to 3x price increase just to account for both the increased demand for coins based on the ongoing new ETF entrants and also to accommodate the halvening of the new supply.. both of those forces causing at least a 2x to 3x need for the BTC price increase to accommodate those current and likely future dynamics.


I think that in bitcoin, there has been a historical preference to error on the side of accumulating and holding (rather than trading and especially not using leverage), and I don't see that preference to be changing in the coming 4-10 years or longer.


There is a bit of a war going on.. whether any of us consider that BTC won the war or not, there is going to be pretty considerable volatility in bitcoin for at least the next 15-25 years or longer. So one of the main attributes of bitcoin will continue to be its volatility, even if we might see further and further lessening of such volatility.  Sure it could be the case that once bitcoin reaches greater than 10x the market cap of gold, which is another 100x from here, then volatility might start to reduce further, with the understanding that bitcoin is heading to around 1,000x the market cap of gold, but it could take 50-200 years to reach that level of BTC price compared with gold.


Ok. maybe I misread you... even though I am getting the sense that BTC needs to go to $120k to $180k in order to accommodate the new demand.. . yet I am not even sure if it is necessarily bettable, it is just my general sense at the moment, and if there is a way to make it bettable, I would be interested in hearing about it, especially since you seem to be generally against that framing, and seems to be suggesting that BTC is somewhat "stable" in a kind of $40k to $100k zone? or what is it that you are saying in terms of seeming to differ from my own tentative assertions about where we are at and where we might be going in the next 6-18 months.


Oh gawd.. you want me to look it up?  It was wen you were going on about your having had sold on the way up around $40k and blah blah blah.. about our being on the way down and guys will have to decide whether to sell on the way down... blah blah blah..    You might not have had specifically told guys to sell, but close enough in my interpretation of what you were going on about.


Ok.. fair enough.


I am glad that you are happy with your improved approach to life.  #nohomo


If you are saying things with a lot of certainty, then you are likely suggesting more than 50%..but whatever, no reason to quibble too much about these potential phraseology matters.


Yes we don't know these things, but we can still have expectations, like you mentioned some of your expectations and I mentioned some of mine.


Again, if you had been suggesting the price to go down, then I would imagine that you are assigning a greater than 50% odds to that. unless you specify otherwise... so sometimes you don't have to assign an exact number to have some number that is implied from words.. including when sometimes (or frequently) guys speak in terms of absolutes, which surely have percentage ramifications merely through words.


Sometimes I talk about them, but they are incremental anyhow, they are not tending to do anything BIG, but sometimes a bunch of them fill and it can end up being a BIG deal that is worth mentioning, whether to the upside or to the downside.


It might not have been fair to call the second top noman's land.. but whatever those are general frames of reference that might not end up being correct, as you seem to be saying.


Seems that we are being repetitive here... All I am saying is that the ETF investors are likely to be more sticky.. .read that however you will... and I might not even going to be correct, and maybe they will cave like lettuce hands as you seem to be suggesting.. but i am not going to automatically presume them to be selling right after they just got into the product,.. but whatever, we are repeating ourselves about things that both of us have admitted to be difficult to quantify with any kind of precision.


We still disagree.. even though sure, you might be correct, and your rephrasing seems to be less controversial than what I had understood from you earlier.


at least you admit that much.  


I think that you usually have pretty good analysis, but you also seem to go a little nutso sometimes, which seems to be your current state.. .. from my perspective... hahahaha


I am not really that much into squigglies... even though I come up with various numbers, which yeah, largely are the same as squigglies without making the actual squiggles.


I am not even going to go there.


A lot of people say they are bias towards upside, even when they are naysaying on bitcoin... so yeah, do whatever you like. It is a free world thread, the last time I checked.


I am glad that you are interested in bitcoin.  There are a lot of folks who come to this forum and they are not interested in bitcoin, so yeah, you don't necessarily seem to be one of those, but we can never really know for sure with any members.


I am still sticking with the idea of 4-year patterns until proven otherwise... but yeah, being prepared for extreme deviation is not outside of realistic preparations.


I am saying upside based on current dynamics... but does not mean that I am giving up on the cycle either because going up does not seem to break with the cycle, from my perspective.


No.  You are referring to Novemver 2021.. ok..  so what.


every cycle has some differences from previous cycles.


we already had a higher ATH.  


better than bargain boyz.. #justsaying


I don't have problems sharing a variety of perspectives, and sometimes we might argue about whether the perspective is outrageous or not and if there might be something bettable contained in the difference of perspectives.


I am not sure what you mean, here.


Again, you lost me.


I stand by my original statements in this regard.. no need to negotiate against myself.  


I agree if any of us are overinvested sometimes we need to take some of that off of the table.


Ok you were overinvested... no problem.


no disagreement from me on this one.


Maybe.  I started selling BTC at $250 in 2015 and then buying back at various points (and making adjustments along the way), but it seems that my stash does not really go down very much in the whole scheme of things.  I have considered myself to mostly in a maintenance mode since 2015 and also over allocated.  


Ok maybe you have sold less than me.. difficult to know.  and maybe it does not matter too much.. like you said, different approaches for different folks.. My shitcoin stash is less than 0.5% of my BTC stash.


I tend to be 50/50 most of the time with maybe just leanings a few percent one way or another.


both of us can see most of that data, then... but we still might interpret the impact of it differently.


Yes, the cycles can vary from what we had expected.  Perhaps?


I already covered this above.


Everyone is responsible for his own trading/hodling/buying choices.  That's right.


ditto


Maybe I read you wrong? You always seemed more of a trader than this here cat... from my perspective.


I think that I am more of an incrementalist.


bitcoin is like that generally.  I feel that I have died and won the lottery, largely in late 2016 and even early 2017, I had pretty much started outperforming expectations and making up for prior years of mediocre performance.. so yeah, just ongoing compounding of value since 2015 that really started to sink in in late 2016, into 2017 and then surely continuing after that, too.


I tend to call mine maintenance... so once we get through accumulation, the next phase is maintenance, and then after that liquidation.. but there might not really be a need to get to liquidation because maintenance may well be sufficient to cover liquidation at whatever level is necessary.


I don't consider myself a trader.  I offset risk.


that's how I frame it, and I am not going to stop.


I had explained my strategy in a lot of places.  you can look at my investment ideas thread if you want to go through it and point out all of the contradictions that you perceive.


If I had not offset the risk by implementing my system (selling on the way up and buying on the way down), there would have likely been no way that I would have been able to hold as many BTC as I have held because I would have gotten nervous from the volatility, so my strategy is to take advantage of the volatility in order that it does not have an effect on me as much as it would if I employed a more pure HODL strategy.


I don't change my behavior based on anticipating price direction, so in that sense the price comes to me and I don't go to the price or try to predict it in terms of my system.  I would not call it high frequency, but just playing swings, with any sales there is no expectation to buy back..   but if buy backs end up happening, then so be it.. make lemonade out of lemons.
 

I don't try to make money from selling on the way up and buying on the way back down.  It is merely a way to offset volatility, and probably more of a psychological thing that seems to help quite a bit. and in the end, even though I am not trying to make money, it does seem to make money too.. kind of a side bonus.. .. but still considered by me to be maintenance rather than trading.

That's what "we" like to say.


"Anything is possible." almost


"This" is much better than referring to a singular as a "they".  I find that irritating too... even though I am more or less accepting of the royal "we" especially if it is used in knowing ways rather than without thinking about it.


Yeah.. this is an amazing number (84.9%).

I am not opposed to it when the asset grows into it, but I am still sticking with the idea of 5% to 25% initial allocation, so maybe then the next part would be to ONLY reallocate once it gets above 84.9%.. which might be a bit more reasonable, but even with that it still seems a bit too much of an allocation, even with the idea of letting your winners run, even though I am probably near if not over that number right now... but largely I only started with 13.5% as my own initial investment and my investment seems to have grown and/or gotten close to 84.9% and/or higher numbers at various points in time, but I never really reallocated in any meaningful way, since there had even been times that I had gotten close to 90% thresholds that were probably around historical bitcoin tops 2021, and I think in 2017, I had ONLY gotten to around 80%-ish...

I am probably close to 90% now, even though I have not gotten into specific calculations, recently since sometimes it can take a bit of time to get a somewhat updated ballpark idea. 

Actually, now that I am talking through this, I am thinking that I might have to switch some of my valuation over to my valuation that is based on the 200-WMA rather than to valuate based on BTC spot price, so that I could be more consistent with my recent lecturings/advocacy on the valuation topic.. that may well bring my allocation valuation down to around mid-70%s rather than upper 80%s.. I might have to do that..

You are probably correct.. about the "not even close" assertion.. but we still have nearly 6 hours for the day to close, so we probably already know that a lot can happen in 6 hours.. even though one of the problems for the bears seems to really be that the ETFs are running out of coins to source.. ..

So one of the ONLY ways to cause HODLers to release some of their coins to give to Blackrock, et al, is to cause the price to go up MOAR further.. The corrections are just not cutting it, and it could well be that the corrections end up causing the downward manipulators to lose way more coins than they are gaining from such so far seemingly feeble attempts to shake peeps out of their cornz that are mostly not causing anyone else to sell at these here prices.

Fair enough.

hahahahahaha

I think trying to put inflation adjusted in there would be muddying the data.. also there should be question regarding from where are we going to extract the inflation numbers?  Maybe add gold in there?  or hookers, lambos and blow?  or some other consumption good, big macs? 

In the end, many of us already know that if you zoom out when comparing bitcoin's purchasing power to anything else, it is way the fuck better to be in bitcoin, including considering adjustments for inflation. 

You can whine about the top from 2024 is not the same as the top from 2021, and sounds like a big so fucking what to be getting too caught up on various short term price differences, even though we likely realize that we are merely in the beginning of more ATHs, even if "technically" we have not reached a real terms adjusted  (rather than nominal) ATH.

On the short-term, it may well not be as noticeable and we have guys whining that BTC has not really reached an ATH yet because we have not adjusted for inflation blah blah blah.. .. and probably there is a need to just say cry harder when there is that kind of quibbling going on - especially if we zoom out a bit and come to our own calculations regarding longer terms..especially if you look over a whole 4-year cycle or some longer timeframe... or even if we see how much the 200-week moving average continues to move up, which is a representation of BTC bottoms rather than getting too worked up about tops.. even though this whole thread is about tops, which is really great to see the daily weighted averages rather than just looking at the spikes that tend to happen around tops (even on the daily). this daily weighted volume seems to be a way better representation of what happened for the whole day.

If someone does not believe in bitcoin, then they might not feel FOMO or even really realize how much they are missing out until several years later, and sometimes it will be necessary to really point out the difference between investing in bitcoin versus other kinds of investments that they could have made before it might start to sink in that bitcoin would have had been a better investment.

Also, sometimes it is not really clear either regarding whether bitcoin is better or not, and several of us who have been into bitcoin longer notice these kinds of longer term trends and even some of us might become a bit wowed by how well a consistent BTC accumulation strategy ended up paying off.. and so it is even more apparent when new ATHs are being made.. but at the same time, if someone is coming in new, it could take them a whole cycle to build up their BTC holdings and even start to really be able to see positive results  (and we know that positive results are not guaranteed, either, so position size has to be accounted for in order to realize that positive results are not guaranteed).

By definition, you need to have either income or some side amount of savings (or other investment) that is greater than your expenses in order to be able to invest.  If you do not have excess, then you are gambling rather than investing.

Of course, you could also invest if you don't have extra income but you are expecting your income to increase, but that would be a bit risky also, or you can invest based on future income that would be considered a loan, which is also risky and problematic if you don't already have funds to be able to service the loan and strong chances that your future income is not going to dry up. 

If you are using the anticipation of paying the loan from the appreciation of the asset that you are buying, then you are gambling.. which may well be ok. if you have back up funds to service the loan, otherwise if you don't then you are likely taking excessive risk, which is also gambling.   Sure people can do whatever they want, and sometimes gambling techniques work, but each of us should be careful if we are employing techniques that might be difficult to recover from if the price were to move against us or other unexpected things happen to cause us to lose our principle.

As a general proposition, that would be dumb to invest in shitcoins instead of bitcoin (or even accompanying a bitcoin investment), probably especially for a newbie.

That is a fair point.


I doubt that there are any guys who are so dumb as to believe doing push-ups causes or contributes to BTC's price movement in any kind of direct and/or substantial way.. even though it does likely contribute to the well-being of a person psychologically and physically.


Yes.. buying bitcoin contributes towards UPpity BTC prices, and buying bitcoin likely contributes towards the buyer having more options than what he would have had if he had not bought any bitcoin, so long as he does not over do it and end up getting reckt because he does not know how to properly manage his personal finances.


I hate to show off, but I cannot resist.



Only two sessions for today, so far.


It does not apply to physical power type tasks, even though there are exceptions to every rule and some women can beat some men in physical power tasks, but on a general basis, men are a lot more physically stronger than women - so there should not even be any questions about those kinds of difference.. at least on a general basis.


Congrats on that part.