Don't be silly, if there's ONE thing a democratic government is great at, its jumping on the train not standing it its way.
 Can't tell if serious. Same here. They will say they have been supporting it all along, think about gay marriage etc... Let me rephrase so the context is clear: When the choice is between dismantling the entire government and bitcoin, they'll choose bitcoin. Especially because 90% of the representatives will already own lots of coins! If you think I'm crazy think on these: No sales tax in the USA for internet purchases (essentially no VAT tax)... NH state reps were the first politicians to accept bitcoin... Gold legal tender in Utah and soon arizona http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/04/20/arizona-set-to-ok-gold-silver-currency/2100039/Shire Silver FinCen implicitly recognizing the legality of bitcoin Eventually somebody will realize that it is a great way (excuses inflation) to get out of US dollar denominated debt obligations. A strong top-down government has to have a hard stance, then do a complete turn-around, hoping that that's the correct decision. That's how governments are "dismantled". A democracy runs in 10 directions at once potentially indefinitely and is stronger; its like P2P governing, only not quite so much. Think about this: if the USD tanks tomorrow because all the international holders decide to exchange their holdings for something else, the only thing that will keep imports/exports flowing are US citizens with bitcoin and PM holdings. Can you imagine that that hasn't occurred to them? |
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It is a far cry to believe that the current legal system can somehow adopt Bitcoin. A more probable scenario would be a complete dismantling of huge current power structures, such as the U.S. Administration.
Don't be silly, if there's ONE thing a democratic government is great at, its jumping on the train not standing it its way. If bitcoiners will be let to form their own legal systems, the real bills question can very well be settled in the next 2 years, before the currency stabilizes anyway. (As long as we are in the value appreciation phase, the real bills will have no chance to function.) If the P-T-B act to prevent this, the price of 1 bitcoin will easily overshoot to $millions range, as civilized trade will be difficult, and hoarding will be the main function of bitcoins.
I will be arranging a conference dedicated to this, probably in June. Admission will be limited, so keep an eye on this.
I'm just looking for the "real bills" definition now, but so far from your descriptions it sounds like essentially a bearer-owned futures instrument secured by raw materials. Or in other words a publicly-issued currency backed by commodities (oil, energy, etc) and some concept of how much those commodities "reworked" into a product might be worth. Essentially it is the creation of transient currencies because of issues and inefficiencies with the availability, portability, or quantity of the "standard" gold based currency. In that context, bitcoin ought to render it unnecessary, due to its transferability and divisibility. On the other hand, real bills also act as a swing loan. In this context they may be useful (to pair with bitcoin), but at the same time they increases risk and imply a trust relationship between the merchants. So if a merchant or his customers do not NEED a swing loan, it is better to avoid them -- historically it seemed to be impossible to avoid both due to the scarcity of gold (it really isn't that divisible in practice) and the transportation risk/inefficiencies. Note a "color coin" could work very well to represent a "real bill"... |
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bid depth at 21.4 million, practically an ATH, and up from 21m (400k) ON THE WEEKEND!  |
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I see little chance of a larger correction to gold price unless the economy starts a miraculous recovery, which I don't believe in. Peak oil is still the most relevant problem that probably won't go away easily, next decade the earliest. Energy is the backbone of the whole economy and the gradually and slowly rising energy prices are a major source of friction in the economy causing everyone to take on more debt. Players in the economy are desperately trying to sustain growth while fundamentally there can be no growth because the energy to support that growth is simply not there.
Thus the problem is much deeper than many realize, in the current situation every time the economy "recovers" oil demand spikes and then oil prices spike causing another major crash. In fact the crashes get bigger every time, with the world being still so dependent on oil. I expect that what we saw in 2008 will be small once we hit the next cycle.
I expect the economy to do a larger fake recovery soon, but then we will go much deeper than in 2008. Simply because not enough has been done to reduce dependency on scarce resources such as oil. Global oil production hasn't increased since 2005 most likely, yet demand keeps going up thanks to China and other growing economies.
Gold bugs know all of this and will certainly feel more safe with gold than USD. Even though I'm quite bullish on Bitcoin long term, I still hold significantly more value in gold than in bitcoins. This could change but slowly, over a period of many years. Once I feel more confident about the economy and the state of Bitcoin I might consider changing more gold into bitcoins.
peak oil what a scam coal can be made into oil, good for another 300 years thorium reactors, product substitution, tram systems, actual city planning peak oil is n#1 scam You basing this analysis on any thought or just pulling it out of under your tin foil hat? "Peak oil" never meant oil can't be acquired. It just means that the rising price of oil makes (to some degree) other energy or investment in energy efficiency cheaper then oil. This results in a "peak" in the production of oil. So not a world shaking deal right now. But it is important because it essentially means that it takes a great delta demand to change the delta supply. It's market behavior is transitioning from a mineral like salt to one more like silver/gold -- that is, you can't just throw more mining equipment at the problem to rapidly get more. |
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Doesn't what's happening now look a LOT like the beginning of a cup & handle? Esp. in log scale: chartDiscuss this and other TA that you really don't trust! |
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I am not a bull or bear, just someone who wants to make money. I really do think this is the frontier of trading right now. If anyone else shares the same line of thought with me, as opposed to say, being obsessed about where bitcoin will be in 3 years (which frankly, I don't care about), send me a PM.
You are what's behind it. You have no belief in the underlying value of the security/commodity. You just want to trade it to "make" money. That behavior tends to magnify trends... |
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Chillin round 100 be perfect...but unlikely a few weeks of that would give a whale confidence
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Well, both gold and bitcoin off their recent lows...
the silverbox update (comparison from the beginning of this thread, March 13th, 2012, gold=1690, nasdaq=3055, Bitcoin=5.4):
Bitcoin is 75.49. Gold is 1377.00. Nasdaq is 3264.00
Bitcoin: 1297.96%
Gold: -18.52%
Nasdaq: 6.84%
Gold Diff: 1616% advantage Bitcoin
Nasdaq Diff: 1208% advantage Bitcoin
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You are putting the cart before the horse if you want to day trade so you study the market. Instead study the market and if you find an edge it can define your trade. The duration and timing of that trade is defined by your edge not by your desire. Always ask yourself what additional risks you are exposing your trading assets to and your exposure should be primarily aligned with what you see as the long term trend (are you holding USD and trading into BTC, or are you holding BTC and trading into USD?). To find an edge, look for where information leaks out of the system. Can you probe the system to elicit information? Here's an example: how long does it take to move your $ to Gox through dwolla? Gox kept limited funds in their dwolla account, so if your transfer OUT completed quickly it meant that lots of other people had just transferred IN, if your transfer OUT took out forever, the money flow was heading OUT (and vice versa). And you know, after all that effort you'll likely find that if you just spent all that time doing real paying work (whatever you are good at) and plowing those proceeds into BTC long term you would have been better off.  Day trading is a zero sum game. Value is not created, it is taken from other traders. Study TA not because it works, but because if your competition thinks it works they will be predictable. If you are unwilling to do this vast amount of work, and do not find an edge, recognize that your day trading is simply gambling with a lower house edge then a formal gambling site offers. So have fun with it but do it as you would do gambling -- very carefully. That's it. Your mentoring is done. 1CKeoT8vBDQDEpMHz5VAswV39pZJ2GTGYd |
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Our foolish moneychangers screwed Bitcoin
Ahh moving on from we all failed, to why we failed. And yes, the exchangers take majority of the responsibility while we all failed. BitCoin and MtGox lost the initiative after website came down for whatever excuses, either success or DDoS attacks. They had their chance with mass media attention, mass influx of new money into this project, then they (MtGox) dropped the ball even influences prices of other smaller exchangers. Will we get another chance like this again? A type of media attention that draws in thousands of new people to dump money into the market? Probably not. Although this is not the first time BTC bubble popped, it is the first time how ever of mass media attention that encouraged a lot of people to invest into it. Game Over. Are you kidding!? This game has not yet begun. We are still setting the pieces on the board. |
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what does Argentina export that somebody in the USA wants? With that kind of markup, identify both sides of an export relationship & you can place yourself in between. USD->Argentina->Pesos becomes USD->BTC->Argentina->Pesos+50%. With that kind of markup, everybody involved can be part of the profit...
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Corner the market and do what with it?
Buy in at 50, create "artificial" scarcity to drive it to 500. Slowly sell at 500 (or wherever) for the rest of your life as adoption increases. Because people buying stuff, gambling, doing int'l transfers, etc don't care what the price is, only that it is stable during their (hours) window of exposure. |
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When asked "who runs bitcoin?", I wish Berwick had thought of answering "who runs the Internet?" instead of mentioning the Federal Reserve.
Yes. That or "who runs gold?" No, because if you aren't a computer nerd you have no idea that nobody runs the internet. And anyway there's the great firewall of china, ICANN, etc... |
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When asked "who runs bitcoin?", I wish Berwick had thought of answering "who runs the Internet?" instead of mentioning the Federal Reserve. Though I guess the journalist thinks internet is run by Google or Facebook...  the best answer to this question is simple: "The People run it". This is one of the things that is awesome about Bitcoin and is very difficult to explain. Its like the ultimate democracy, in a fork situation each individual would vote by choosing which client (or both) to run. These 2 bitcoin currencies then compete against each other until the market decides which is best. It would be like the government simultaneously passing 2 conflicting laws, allowing people to choose which they prefer and then sometime in the future comparing the success of each choice. But I think a mass media (simple) explanation is: Its like gravity. Nobody "runs" or "controls" it; its laws are encoded in open source software. It is irrelevant who created it. The software is visible to everyone and has been studied by many experts. The fact that Isaac Newton first discovered the laws of gravity had no effect on gravity itself. |
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In order to corner the market you must have enough capital (USD GBP LTC whatever) to buy up any bitcoin that gets offered below a certain price.
So it's not a matter of holding enough BitCoin, it's a matter of holding enough cash to buy up any bitcoin that gets put up for sale.
hmm... the situation is a little different then with commodities I think, because you do need some circulation because that is where bitcoin derives its fundamental value. But yes, you'd need to allocate cash to buy the mining injection and big dumps. Or expect that the price will top out when the growth rate = coins mined*price. But buying up the dumps would be not so much "buying" as market making -- taking someone's dump and spreading it across time and at your higher price... But since BTC is still inflating pretty rapidly maybe this is what's stopping someone from attempting a cornering right now... at the same time, you have the exponential adoption curve so your worst case exit strategy is simply to wait until that catches up with your price. Your risk is anti-bitcoin legislation, and to a lesser degree a competing coin. You stabilize the price which is good for merchant adoption, which feeds back into the price... |
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I love how everyone keeps saying, "oh good cheap coins!" and then another hour goes by and it drops another $10 usd. You don't have that much liquidity. This market is crashing. Invest accordingly.
Buying now is known in the bubble world as "trying to catch a falling knife" for good reason. Yep, thank god for clueless bulls.  Cheers! No one knows exactly where and when it will turn 'round. If you sold at 120+, doubling down -- buying all your coins back at 60, then 30, then 15, etc. looks mighty fine even if it continues down... assuming you are LT bullish. |
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why aren't you going to int'l exchanges to purchase and selling those into your local market at a pre-arranged price with premium?
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By "corner", I mean to hold enough to have a significant effect on the price by creating scarcity.
The marginal utility (as a value transfer network) is unaffected by the price and the fundamentals are strong. So this seems like an obvious investment plan... buy millions of USD in coins during these dumps and then slowly sell into the scarcity you've created for long term steady profits.
total cost = active coins*corner percentage*cost per coin
Given the kind of fiat we've seen interested in the market, it seems like someone would make this move far before we hit the kind of price-per-coin that we saw just a year or 2 ago ($2-5).
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Gold collapsing. Bitcoin up.
geez, what does a guy have to do around here to get an update?
Sorry no internet on top of a snowy mountain! What is this "letter" you are referring to? Bitcoin is 93.40. Gold is 1374.00. Nasdaq is 3237.00 Bitcoin: 1629.63% Gold: -18.70% Nasdaq: 5.96% Gold Diff: 2027% advantage Bitcoin and Growing!Nasdaq Diff: 1532% advantage Bitcoin and Growing![/b][/size] |
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