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This is awesome.
But, can you guys please fix your data API? GoxLive and websockets is consistently down during peak trading, then bitcoincharts lags by minutes, and orders on mtgox are stuck pending for excruciatingly long.
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Ok, and if you've been liquidated, and in minus, is there a way to get your deposit back if you wait?
If not...then there's only the debt to walk away from?
If you're liquidated, you never get your deposit back, you lost it all. If you only go minus say -50% your deposit, you can wait and if the market goes back up your position can change to profitable. If not, you can only walk away from losses. Its not "debt" because you never borrowed money. Its loss on your deposit. |
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Interestingly...what's to stop you or anyone else just walking away from the debt? All bitcoinica has is an email address, no?
or do I misunderstand it?
You don't walk away from debt, you walk away from your deposit. ok, but if you're minus...thousands and been forced to liquidate, hasn't your deposit already gone? Right. When you reach minus (your deposit), you're force liquidated. |
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i seriously doubt there are any ppl making any money with this volatility and illiquidity on the exchanges.
Oh, zhoutong most certainly is! The bank always wins! i really wonder about this. whenever he liquidates someone it means their acct moved into negative territory and HE has to take the loss in those situations where he had to provide liquidity from his reserves when there was no matching order to be found. multiply this over many accts both up and down in this huge whipsaw and he could get wiped out, i think. He wouldnt have lost a dime. He made a fortune I am sure. The shorts and the longs all got liquidated= pure profit. It is for this reason I question his integrity and wonder if he is the one moving the market with his now large collection of USD and BTC. He certainly has the means to do this unlike anyone else. Most is probably not his profit; it goes to the people with profitable positions. The ones with deep enough pockets / big margin maintenance, who can survive the spikes. Hard to know to what extent zhou can profit off the spread, beyond his commission. |
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i seriously doubt there are any ppl making any money with this volatility and illiquidity on the exchanges.
Oh, zhoutong most certainly is! The bank always wins! Also mtgox market makers / bots. For them, nothing better than large spreads. |
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lol@playing with fire and getting burnt, can't believe you didn't liquidate.
Never would've been able to liquidate at a profit. The ask depth wasnt there. |
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Interestingly...what's to stop you or anyone else just walking away from the debt? All bitcoinica has is an email address, no?
or do I misunderstand it?
You don't walk away from debt, you walk away from your deposit. |
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Price at $6.95 so the short is already in negative. Can't close it for a profit, assuming the screenshot is even legit.
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Yes some are doing this, but none consistently and nobody is sharing the data you'd have to collect from the feed. Coolest one was this 3D viz by tcatm (owner/creator of bitcoincharts.com. he provides historical mtgox trade data but not bid data, which he also collects and more than likely archives) Historic market depth charts Here's some additional perspective from two extreme points in time, when the bid/ask geometry was enough out of the ordinary that I decided to catalog a couple of snapshots: bid depth vs 5.14.2011 - why I'm bullish at $10 on 8.14.2011 |
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WE'RE GOING TO DESTROY $7 LETS GO LETS GO LETS GO!
$.25 TO GO, LETS TAKE THESE WALLS DOWN!
Patience. This rally is the slowest bitcoin rally I've ever had the privilege to witness. Live-action slow motion. It's a bubble! Bail! Bubble? Present rally is like watching grass grow. The mid-term trend may be gaining steam or losing it. Difficult market; hard to call. |
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WE'RE GOING TO DESTROY $7 LETS GO LETS GO LETS GO!
$.25 TO GO, LETS TAKE THESE WALLS DOWN!
Patience. This rally is the slowest bitcoin rally I've ever had the privilege to witness. Live-action slow motion. |
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Whatever happens, MtGox wins. Every bout of volatility is a gold mine for them through fees. A thin market with no action is what MtGox doesn't want.
But during sideways movements with lots of trading and a high spread, its the market makers who are raking it in. |
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The simplified way to calculate is:
current bid - [ (net value - maintenance) / (position amount + BTC balance) ]
its $5.26
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hm, problem is what about liability if it fails to execute a stop for you?
New code always has bugs.
Maybe it would make sense to create an advisory bot though .. one that sends out alerts if your stop or trailing stop is hit...
Can't say I didn't try to warn you. I've posted a couple of times that stop orders won't protect you. Stop orders will be executed at the market price. And if the market price changes quickly to below your zhoutong price, *zhoutonged*. |
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I don't know when the correction will come and I won't be able to tell you it did until afterwards. When we're in the 3rd of 3rd wave up which should follow.
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I love how Zhou has placed the "Buy" button next to the Ask price in the instant execution window to encouraged noobs to make their BTC buys at the Ask resulting in an immediate loss on the spread to the buyer and an immediate profit for Bitcoinica.
Yea he's got himself a nice a little business. To open a position, you lose the spread (~1%) not just once, but as many times over as your leverage. So each time you open a position at five to one leverage you're basically giving him 5% of your deposit, and at ten to one its 10%. Bitcoinica daytraders would more than likely be seeing their accounts dwindling if this wasn't such a strong uptrend. Even as it is, for my risk profile its better to just hold my coin for longer-run gains and sell on mtgox (or any other real exchange). I'm not subject to a zhoutonging at every whim of the market, and I won't have to give away my (still fantastic) gains 5x over on those rare occasions when I will want to reduce my risk. Short-term traders just don't seem to realize how much your gains multiply themselves when you aren't hovering over the sell button and biting your nails during a monster fucking bull run. You just have to let them run. When you trade short-term all you're doing is giving away your gains to sophisticated market makers. You still make money, but they don't multiply when you do that. Its all in good fun though. Not like any of us here are folks desperate enough to bet more than we can afford to lose, right?  |
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Nagle will speak again if and only if price tops before $32 and heads back down towards new lows. So be careful what you wish for.
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What if bitcoin is, as that Wired article suggests, a "meta-currency". The term implies that its primary use will be as a go-between for the real-world currencies. Price is determined by speculation, which then forms the base for commerce. Again, speculation supports commerce, not the other way around. The volume of commerce is just a fraction of the bitcoin economy, which is the huge exchange volume (speculative or otherwise) staring everyone in the face.
I generally agree with your sentiment, but this statement makes no sense. What the heck is a "meta-currency"? IMO, the Wired guy who invented the term doesn't know himself. Generally, the article is an abomination, I'd be too ashamed to leave the house again after writing such nonsense. Genjix wrote a nice blog post on it, still too nice in my opinion though, but it saved me the hassle of typing rage-posts. Anyway: by the given reasoning, the USD is one hell of a "meta-currency". Almost everyone uses it to quickly exchange into something else. Like I said, if bitcoin becomes dominant then it will be the preferred go-between for real-world currencies and any other e-currencies. "meta-currency" = currency of currencies. As for USD, the "given reasoning" you quoted was my reasoning for why the speculative economy of bitcoin is a good thing that enables commerce, not an evil which prevents it. Even though the dollar is obviously the dominant currency at present, I don't think I need to bother going through the list of reasons it makes a terrible meta-currency (and compare them to properties of bitcoin which make it a great one). I completely agree with genjix's response to the wired article, though I do object to his saying that "meta-currency" makes no sense. I guess he flamed it because it seemed to pooh-pooh bitcoin, even though the mere suggestion that bitcoin could replace Western Union IMO still recognizes its phenomenally disruptive potential. I'd say that makes the tone of genjix's response a little too mean. The article even suggests replacing wire transfers too (SWIFT like chodpaba mentioned above). If genjix wouldn't have defensively overreacted, he might realize that "meta-currency" is a pretty good term for describing the revolutionary difference of bitcoin. Its way better than the simple "currency" as in "yet another currency". Matter of fact, even though he said the term is meaningless, I'm going to add genjix to the "bitcoin is a meta-currency and speculation is good for commerce" club. What he said right afterwards shows that in fact he does think of bitcoin as a meta-currency. Of course, if he or anyone else can come up with a better term then I'd love to hear it. Likewise, if bitcoins are useful for buying foreign currency or buying online services, then at some point you will need to be holding bitcoins. That interlude when you have aquired bitcoins will be when you spend them in the general economy.
I know what the author is trying to get at- that nobody would ever what to hold bitcoins because the price is volatile and that the only use for bitcoin ever is as a service for changing money. That’s all.
What the author fails to realise is this: market volatility is a consequence of bitcoin being small, and if the economy booms due to people using bitcoin as a forex tool then the volatility would disappear suddenly. If market trading became more professional then we would see arbitrage and professional speculation.
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I see myself as a speculator doing his proper job, namely stepping in when prices go absurd.
Define absurd. If your reference is actual economic trade done using bitcoins, any price above $0.1 is absurd. If your reference is bitcoin mid- to longterm potential to become a mainstream currency, any price below at least $1000 is absurd. You seem to use last weeks or last months price as reference, thats perhaps even more absurd. When will this meme die? Bitcoin doesn't need to (and probably will not) become a "mainstream currency" that your grandma uses to do e-commerce. Bitcoin is a "meta-currency", and all the "actual economic trade" using bitcoins is just as legitimate even if bitcoin is only traded for dollars/euros etc. That's it. I'm starting a "bitcoin is a meta-currency" club. So far myself, chodpaba, and mobodick are the only three members (four if you count the author of the Wired article). Tagline for the club is: Bitcoin: not your grandma's e-currency. |
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Breaking news. This is no coincidence; they're here for the bitcoin. Difficulty about to spike. These signals look similar to what we think might be produced from an extraterrestrial technology. They are narrow in frequency, much narrower than would be produced by any known astrophysical phenomena, and they drift in frequency with time, as we would expect because of the doppler effect imposed by the relative motion of the transmitter and the receiving radio telescope.
Each of the signals below is shown in a pair of plots, one from an observation of Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) 817 and one from an observation of KOI-812.
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