do the "fundamentals" allow a price of <400?
not for more than a few hours
The problem with "fundamentals" is that some are unknown (e.g. the true rate of adoption), some unpredictable (e.g. the PBoC decrees) and the rest is hard to translate into price changes.
No wonder TA is so popular. But of course TA cannot predict unpredictable events either.
My undertanding of the bitcoin fundamentals is that the rally of October-November 2013 was due to the opening of the Mainand China market, and the decline since then is due to the shrinking of that market. The brief plunge to 340$ on Apr/10, apparently due to rumors in China, tell me that if the Chinese market were to close today, and absent any other positive development, the price would fall to about 300$ or less.
On the other hand, the market outside China should support at least 120$, as it did in September.
This last estimate assumes that the April 2013 rally was NOT due to an early partial opening of the Chinese market. Was it?
china rumors has been crashing the market for over 5 months... not just the last good dip.
MYO china has been a source of hype and later a source of FUD, a tool to get sheeple to buy high and sell low, if china bans bitcoin AGAIN it won't do much to price...
just because china bans bitcoin doesn't make the market in china disappear, it simply moves underground or to hong kong.
April 2013 rally was based on WordPress and banks farting,
b4 that, spike to 32, was because a few youtubers asked "wtf is bitcoin?"
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