The right description is to skip economic forecast this summer which shows the depth of the slowdown and perhaps the reason for the overtaking is not to influence the voters who will re-elect President Donald Trump.
I agree with them, it is difficult to predict what will happen because of this pandemic so it is unwise to publish negative expectations so that they cannot produce reliable forecasts (data is volatile.) that's the neutral take. another take is that the outlook is pretty clearly negative and the trump administration can't add fuel to the fire given his plummeting numbers in polls. millions of initial unemployment claims are still coming in even as states began reopening as early as april. that seems sorta ominous. These economic forecasts, as released by nations of the world, are normally so decoupled from reality. Its irrelevent as to whether they're released. No one expects them to contain a sliver of accuracy. This has become normalized over the last 10-20 years.
i guess that begs the question---why not publish some optimistic projections? |
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So I wanted to wait until I had an idea whether or not I would qualify before bringing this up. Next weekend I am back at work. I can't remember when the last Championship played out but I'm curious what peoples thoughts are on time and date for the next Championship game.
I didn't really hear any opinions about this. I am working nights this coming weekend, no getting around it. so hopefully sunday works? play from work again?  i'm pretty open re day of week if we need to switch things up. Sunday is cool, too - I have asked SwC and will let you guys know as soon as the game is live. You won't need a password since they will manually register the finalists. In addition, I asked them to remove Late Registration this time.  only one table i hope? |
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you really think white liberals are gonna become trump supporters because he supports cops who kill unarmed people, and because he supports crushing protests with the military?  This riots will do one interesting thing: they will polarize the american society. Some people will be strongly for Trump, another will be against him at any costs. And some people, which would stay at home under normal circumstances, after such things will go to vote for one of candidate. And also, there enough examples how dictators won with help of such riots. Average people love "strong hand", so if Trump will use military, his real rating will increase. maybe so in other countries. i think you are underestimating attitudes about that in the USA, and also the amount of "white guilt" among liberal voters. i feel that anyone falling along pro/anti-law & order or racism lines was polarized by trump a long, long time ago. the big risk for trump is that voters will actually come out in november and the more inflammatory his actions are, the more likely a big turnout becomes. the bigger the turnout, the worse trump's chances are. that's generally true for republicans, which is why they fight so hard against vote-by-mail or anything that will make it easier to vote. biden, as expected, is capitalizing on the situation: odds are up for biden again. bookies say 45% trump, 48% biden.  |
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that was intense. the points standings came down to the final 2 players in the final match. great stuff! i got pretty worried for @CCwatcher420 when you hit that 999 vs QQ hand against @iv4n. i think all 3 of you were near even stacks after that. Hehe, yes, it was very intense, but Iv4n got the job done for CC. I felt your super tightness at your very own bubble, when you were just waiting for ANY player to get eliminated to get you qualified for the Final. You were down to a bit more than 3k chips iirc with blinds already high-ish and I guess, you would even have folded premium hands at this stage, if it was to call an all-in or something that would have made you pot committed. dude, i was so annoyed! i even folded KK preflop with ~10bbs to a raiser in the first several hands of the final table, when i was one KO away from qualifying. i can't think of any other circumstance where i ever would fold there except this very specific one, where one hand could lose me a future buy-in worth 10x the current one. if you're on the bubble in the last couple games in this type of series structure, the ICM considerations are so frustrating. i would have been a lot more comfortable in yours or @SyGambler's spot so i could actually play my normal game. Big thanks to our hosts efialtis & tyKiwanuka for the work they have put into this series and hopefully we will continue to organize some poker here in the forum.
+1 |
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I don't see anything spectacular here, JPM just decided to settle because it is obviously cheaper for them, and also because in this way they will return only 95% of the allegedly overpaid fees. Also they do not admit that they are wrongdoing, and their current attitude towards cryptocurrency is diametrically opposed to what it was 2 years ago. the fact that the case was settled and JPM admitted no wrongdoing leaves the legal question wide open. chase is not the only bank who charges coinbase deposits via credit card as cash advances. BOA, citi, and others do it too. i wonder if we'll see another class action lawsuit against another bank. from what i can gather, the plaintiffs would only win on a technicality, not the substance of the issue. credit card issuers have the right to specify at their discretion (in the cardmember terms) what transactions constitute cash advances. the problem here was the JPM may not have properly notified customers of changes to their terms. it seems like common sense to me. banks letting cardholders buy currencies or speculative assets on credit is risky business. they ought to be hedging that risk with cash advance fees and higher interest fees. |
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Congratulations to everyone who made it to the Grand Final, especially to CCwatcher420, I guess this was some nail-baiting for you, if you followed  I fought, but came up short, was still lots of fun for me. that was intense. the points standings came down to the final 2 players in the final match. great stuff! i got pretty worried for @CCwatcher420 when you hit that 999 vs QQ hand against @iv4n. i think all 3 of you were near even stacks after that. i bubbled 2 days in a row, out in 4th again. do i get a prize for the most bubbles in the series?  at least i got myself a spot in the final. it would feel a lot sweeter though if i had cashed this weekend! I think efialtis will show up here sooner or later and tell us when the Grand Final will take place, if there will be a small final and what is the future of this series.
ah, i assumed it was next weekend. thanks for running the spreadsheet, it was super helpful in figuring out standings in real time. hand of the day---@Betwrong basically all-in preflop vs @BitcoinGirlClub. @BitcoinGirlClub flops nut flush, @Betwrong hits runner-runner to a full house to stay alive:  |
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From what I could see, a lot of rioting is going on even now (over the George Floyd murder issue). Curfews have been declared in a number of states, and my guess is that this situation is going to benefit Trump. This is how I think - Black voters were polarized in favor of the Democratic Party, even before the murder. Now all this rioting is going to cause a counter-polarization of white voters in favor of the Republican party.
i very much doubt that. white voters who were willing to polarize based on racial lines already did so a very long time ago. that's already been one of trump's core voting contingents. you really think white liberals are gonna become trump supporters because he supports cops who kill unarmed people, and because he supports crushing protests with the military? odds update:   trump's odds are sinking like a stone. 49-42 trump advantage is now a 45-47 trump disadvantage in just a couple weeks! |
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whew, barely made it today. woke up still drunk from last night and was trying to play from my phone in the car on the way home. ended up passing out and blinding out until just now. still got a workable stack but now i gotta put some work in..... good luck all. no @Improved today? Going all-in with those pocket Tens I just wanted to lose to someone and call it a day. But the poker gods, yeah, they decided otherwise. Sorry mate. It was unintentional, I swear! ... no worries, i dished out a couple suckouts later in the game myself. |
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well played, @Hhampuz. that chip lead was unstoppable. The fight between figmentofmyass, bitmutiny, CCwatcher420, Iv4n and Improved will be interesting to witness - I hope you join tomorrow @bitmutiny. 5 of us are basically tied for 4 spots with only one game to go---it's even tighter than i thought!  As some of you might have noticed, I added a column “Avg” next to the total points. Afaik this is the tiebreaker for players with same amount of points and I added it as preparation for tomorrows final regular tournament of this series. i noticed that. this is the average place we finished in each tourney? i guess that technically leaves me in the middle of the pack with @CCwatcher420. it could be worse. I did (or tried to do) some live update for the sheet during the tournaments, but only sorted it all after the tournaments were finished. For tomorrow I will do live updates and also refresh the rankings live. What does that mean ? Whenever a player gets eliminated, I will put his numbers in and then sort the table afterwards. Players that are finished for the series and can’t get no more points, I will put in yellow – that way each of you can follow the rankings real time and figure out better, what place he needs to finish in order to get to the Grand Final. much appreciated. good luck tomorrow! |
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bubble time! me, @Steamtyme, @iv4n, and @Hhampuz are fighting for ITM. it's a pretty nitty game at the moment. EDIT: another weekend, another bubble for me. ;( i'm disappointed in the spot i went out on, probably should have controlled the pot better. @Hhampuz minbet this flop, and i had seen him do that multiple times with 2nd or 3rd flopped pair. i 3bet in position and had solid odds at the time:  when he fired a barrel on the turn (3rd flush card) i figured he was trying to rep the flush and steal the pot. but he had it. at least i grabbed 7 points, which should leave me in ~6th place, pulling slightly ahead of @bitmutiny, @CCwatcher420, and @Improved. @iv4n will also be in contention, just slightly behind. it's gonna be down to the wire again tomorrow. |
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i read the poker blueprint when it came out many years ago. some nice bedtime reading there. so when you gonna find your way into our poker series anyway? series #3 will probably start in ~3 weeks. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5245365.0btw, i'm digging the return of the dude avatar. |
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Recent opinion polls show Trump trailing badly in crucial states such as Florida and Arizona. The polls may be wrong (just like the case in 2016), so I am not going to comment about them. I would still say that Trump is not getting any boost from this pandemic. Recent movement in the markets confirm that to a certain extent  Source: https://orbitexch.com/customer/sport/market/1.128151441holy shit, even odds on biden vs trump?! that was fast. i feel like trump had a 7-point lead just a couple weeks ago.  trump has now lost the entire "coronavirus bump" to his approval ratings: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/the george floyd protests may be a contributing factor. floyd was an unarmed black guy killed on duty by a white cop in minnesota. protests and riots are now erupting nationwide about police violence and racial injustice. trump responded by threatening to bring the military down on protestors. he also tweeted "when the looting starts, the shooting starts" which was widely viewed as incendiary and deleted by twitter moderation for "glorifying violence". he is now embroiled in a war with twitter and has even threatened to shut down social media sites entirely for questioning him. https://time.com/5843107/trump-threatens-social-media-twitter-fact-check/with unemployment at staggering levels and continuing to rise, the protests and looting probably contain elements of economic unrest, which would be a very bad development for trump. this could evolve into a bigger political crisis if this level of social unrest sustains. fun fact: FDR was the last president re-elected with double digit unemployment. this was in 1940. his war on twitter IMO is a sign he is getting worried about his ability to control the narrative. interesting developments all around! |
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might be a weird question but is there anyway to stop the keyboard from interacting with the software ?
usually when I'm playing I surf the internet as well and sometimes I press enter for my browser but that enter makes me raise in SWC in case it's my turn (the table pops up ), so is there any way to stop that from happening ?
it sounds like you have the "bet using enter key" option enabled. you can find and disable it under options > settings > table settings. |
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Well I need those points! If I don't get in first 3 places tonight and tomorrow I can say goodbye to grand finale!
i'm hanging on by a thread myself. being tied for 8th, i can't afford to not place this weekend. sadly the poker gods are not with me so far. calling @Betwrong's preflop shove, he hits one of his 2 outs:  then a really unlucky turn vs @1r0n1c. he's repping a Q on the flop and of course another Q falls on the turn. bleeding chips here.   |
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I play a lot of poker in this site in the finish of 2019 because the tournaments was so good the 5mbtc price pool whit the 100ubtc buy in.
But in the 2020 all change you put another tournaments whit more high buy in and price pool but nobody play thats.
i know you need to have higher buy in tournaments but if passed 5 months thats no work why no change?
I see all the day nobody plays the 50mbtc tournament and the 20mbtc.
My think is go back to the old scheudle of tournaments.
Sorry if i sound like i was attacking. Thats is because my poor english.
this guy may be on to something. it's one thing to not meet the guarantees, but it's another if the tourneys aren't even running because they aren't reaching the minimum players to start. i think SB should definitely re-work their tourney schedule and include a lot more small buy-ins. i also hope you guys can figure out a way to better integrate the poker room into the main page. before i became familiar with SB's layout, i had a lot of trouble finding the poker room, being that you need to set your wallet to BTC and it's hidden away unadvertised on the left panel. |
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yeah it's a fish move, but at low stakes you can often get away with it. it's all about the odds for me. for example, i love limping low pocket pairs for cheap because flopping a set can pay off huge.
I lean heavily on a raise if there is a limper and I had planned a RFI. point taken, i'm talking specifically about this situation: if it's the type of table where lots of players are calling and seeing flops (hard to isolate especially as the first to raise) ......and mainly early/middle position. the thinking being that between pot odds (lots of limpers) and implied odds we can get close to the 8:1 on flopping a set. Question for the group. How faithful are you to following the odds in making a call. Does a small betsizing keep you in it chasing a draw if the odds are there? I know that there are times I personally get away from the math and it's been hit or miss but sometimes things just don't make sense. i try to keep it close to the odds and i think i do a decent job, which is why i rarely stay in hands that are gutshot only. 3 days ago I had a 100BB stack jam turn into me (40BB) when I had top pair 3rd kicker and a flush draw had come in on the turn. Flop was checked through. So I hero called it and he had pure air. Did the same thing the next hand and I called it down with second pair, again he had air but at least had an overcard.
Funny note on that tournament I got taken out by 2 hands about 15 apart same player. He called down my 2 pair and my flopped set, with solid value bets on flop and turn chasing a gutter that came in... TWICE. That tournament lasted about 45 minutes for me and I went from 220th to about 3rd until I ran into this guy.
tough beats. made gutshots hurt the worst, except maybe for overpair vs underpair hitting set. |
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I guess I am just being curious here. Bitcoin was born after the 2008 recession in which many Bitcoin loyalists have argued that Bitcoin was born to cushion the effect of a possible future recession. What are your prediction and analysis concerning the digital asset if for any reason we witness just another deep recession in 2020? Will Bitcoin go down with the global market?
some prominent investors/analysts (paul tudor jones and raoul pal to name a couple) think the crisis and potential inflation from all the money printing is bullish for bitcoin. i wish i shared their confidence. the economic situation looks dire, and just based on the correlated crash in march, i'm feeling pretty nervous for bitcoin. the next leg down in the stock markets could be just around the corner. |
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In an unprecedented move the White House has decided not to publish it’s formal economic projections which it has been diligently publishing each year, and the last time it was not published was in the year 1970. apparently there is precedent. A senior administration official noted that there is precedent for not releasing the data, pointing to 2017, when the Trump administration did not release the economic projections. this is my take on it: they are clinging to the "swift recovery" position (at least not officially dismissing it) for now, and closer to the election, trump will act like captain save-a-ho with stimulus, direct payments, the whole nine yards in an attempt to win back voters. While I do understand that they were not keen to show the real economy picture in an election year, but this shall only create more fear and panic among the US citizens as they’ll be now be more concerned about their economy.
Further in the last 10 weeks around 40 million US citizens have declared themselves unemployed, which only shows how bad the situation has become out there. every single time these shocking unemployment numbers come out the stock market pumps, so i wonder when this fear and panic is finally going to appear. the outlook from the congressional budget office was grim but nobody seemed to care. |
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i kinda like it. it adds some additional incentive to play every game. what does everyone else think? I think the Top9 in league points should get some prize. For example CCwatcher420/JTisCuban has 14 participations and is playing good poker throughout both series. Missed Grand Final in first series, but will probably qualify for it this time. If he isn't in the money there, he would have participated in every tournament there was and never has gotten anything back. This is kind of unfair (well, is Poker fair anyway ? ) imo and regular players (add maybe good to it) should get rewarded at some point. It's the same with you, but you at least were able to win some BTC in small final. i feel like the championship entry is already a flat payout---9 people winning a satellite ticket basically. the idea of this IMO would be to reward the top performers in the league. the championship game (or the runners up game, if there is one) in many ways is up to chance, whereas placing in the top 3 for the entire series says something more about skill/consistency. i think if we're gonna add something it should be top heavy but let's hear some more opinions. Anyway, isnt there some runners up freeroll in the 1st series? SwC was nice enough to put that on for us. let's see if they'll do it again. |
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it depends on the table IMO. at a very aggressive table, limping is terrible. at a passive table, you can see cheap flops and capitalize on them.
On passive table mostly it's good to raise, i think you understand why. The less people in flop we have, the less probability that you will face with stronger than your hand. Also, with raise it's easier to bluff. well there are tight/weak passive players (folds when he doesn't have the nuts) and there are loose passive (calling station) players---two very different player types. it's usually a bad idea to bluff into a calling station. if it's the type of table where lots of players are calling and seeing flops (hard to isolate especially as the first to raise) then i tighten up my raising range in the interest of pot control, and start limping more. when there is lots of weak preflop play then you get better odds on limping, both pot odds and implied odds. But as i said, sometimes, limping is good if it fits to your strategy. The problem is that limping is used by fish mostly.
yeah it's a fish move, but at low stakes you can often get away with it. it's all about the odds for me. for example, i love limping low pocket pairs for cheap because flopping a set can pay off huge. |
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