do you mean the % of humans on the planet, or the % of bitcoin users?
it's impossible for more than 0.295% of the world population to ever have 1 bitcoin, so if bitcoin becomes mainstream, everyone with 1 bitcoin will be the top 0.295% at the least.
but this is assuming 21 million people all have 1 bitcoin, but of course some people have more than 1 bitcon, and many people have less.
so in reality, even less than 0.295% of the world population will have 1 bitcoin. The distribution may be something like this
Top 20% (of world population)
owns about 0.011 (11 millibitcoin) on average. (note that this is the UPPER CLASS)
they have a total of about 15 million bitcoin combined
High 20%
owns an average of 0.0025 bitcoin per person (2.5 millibitcoin)
they have just over 3.5 million bitcoin combined
Middle 20%
average of 0.00075 bitcoin (0.75 millibitcoin)
they have just about a million bitcoin combined (divided over 1.43 billion people!) Note that this is 'middle class'. Having 1 bitcoin would mean you're about 1333 times richer than middle class!
Low 20%
they own just about 200,000 bitcoin combined, each of them having an average of about 0.00015 bitcoin (0.15 millibitcoin)
Bottom 20%
the bottom 1 430 000 000 people will have less than 0.000075 (7500 satoshi) each, their entire 'fortune' is what we now refer to as 'dust'.
The total amount of bitcoin in the bottom 20% of the world will be hardly even 100,000 bitcoin
do you see why many of us think 1 bitcoin would be 1 million+ in value? They are more scarce than you'd think.
this is correct from the math standpoint, but cannot be correct from the social standpoint. 0.01BTC is way too small amount for the top 20%. BTC has to be at $10-50 mil for it to be possible from the social standpoint. There are other possible solutions: 1. bitcoin derivatization like fractional banking system where there will be a <home>coin that will be derived at 1:100 from btc, people will use homecoin, but banks will hold certain percentage of btc against the value of homecoin. 2. more than 21 mil will be printed/mined. 3. a coin with more than 21 mil units will take over. Deravatis derivatives and fractional reserve is very bad for bitcoin and it will not and should not happen on a large scale with bitcoin. The philosophy of 'if you don't own the private key, you don't own the bitcoin' needs to stay strong. Also, they will probably count in satoshies by then. Because 1 bitcoin would be so extremely expensive that it's not practical to count in bitcoin. You might as well count in the number of ferraris you own. So, rich people will own millions of satoshi, while average people own a couple of thousands or hundred thousands. So there's no problem in only having 21 million full bitcoin, because we can just count in fractions of it. I don't have as much much grasp of the future as you extoll, but you cannot stop derivatization as soon as you have an ETF (upcoming COIN, BIT). Do you think GLD ETF really have gold (as much as they should-I seriously doubt this). |
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Here is the 15-minute resolution chart showing what I believe to be a short-covering bitcoin price rally. Large blocks are being purchased on Bitstamp. Gold prices have rallied a bit in the last hour too. https://i.imgur.com/q8Crpkw.pngThe Paypal news is HUGE imo. This is going to attract a lot more eyes to BTC. Regardless of the effect of BTC holders making more purchases now, I really think that with full Paypal integration, BTC starts another phase. This is like a huge Advertisement. It "coincidentally" happened at a really interesting point in the chart as well. Funny how that works out... I am very curious about what happens over the next few weeks. I say this starts a new uptrend. Perhaps not the big one we are looking for but at least a bounce to 600 ish... paypal news potentially interesting, but I don't see how these two can mix. Paypal just introduced a new draconian TOS where someone can return your goods full 180 days after purchasing if they are not "significantly as described" whatever that means. I don't think I will be selling anything of value and, specifically, bitcoin related on ebay/paypal after this POS/TOS goes into effect on Nov 18. All used miners have to go beforehand, as risking a FULL return after 179 days is too much to consider. |
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ha ha ha As the old Wall Street proverb goes...Buy on Rosh Hashana (or less than a day before  ), sell on Yom Kippur (Oct 3-4) Bought a few yesterday at ~400. Nice. |
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Hey, Guy, Zvisha, Gadi, Katya, everybody at Spond.
shana tovah u'metukah to ya'll
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I'm guessing Bitmain literally means before September ends, like literally shipping on the 31st.
My uneducated guess is they're waiting for any BTC price pump up, so they can better profit on the S4 sales, and mitigate shipping costs.
Well, if we have to wait until Sept 31...wait a minute, there is NO Sept 31 |
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1. any news on the "too high voltage" quirk? or is it machine specific?
2. if watchdog is disabled, then if cgminer crashes, Sp-30 would not reboot automatically-is this correct?
many thanks
What is the "too high voltage" quirk? Can you elaborate? Yes, if /etc/mining_watchdog set to 0 the machine will not restart itself. You can read it in /usr/local/bin/mining_watchdog to see the logic of mining watchdoging. one of my machines is in a datacenter that provides 240V (actual 246-252). This SP-30 cannot handle it, was crashing all the time in the first 12-24 hr, then transferred to 208 V subpanel-hashing OK, but reports voltage of 246 when, in fact, it is 208V. then it crashed during the night because watchdog was disabled remotely, but now watchdog is enabled and it is hashing OK with smooth recovery from a few sec crash last night. thanks |
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1. any news on the "too high voltage" quirk? or is it machine specific?
2. if watchdog is disabled, then if cgminer crashes, Sp-30 would not reboot automatically-is this correct?
many thanks
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A curious factoid:
A state of the art SP-30 hashing at ~4.5Th currently produces ~0.076BTC/24hr, which is less than a lowly S1 (0.18th) produced less than 6 mo ago (mid March 2014). Considering that BTC in march was roughly similar in price, it is kind of astonishing. What's next year-a 100Th machine (10-20kw) that cost $20K, but produces 0.05 BTC/day with BTC price stagnating? That would be something...
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Need help here. Anyone running multiple S3s on the same circuit, and if so, what are you powering them with? I have 6 of the new batch 8 S3's, and they are all on the same circuit. Running two pairs with a Corsair CX750M each and the other two with an EVGA bronze 1300W. Thought this would work well, and they mine perfectly, but the one outlet in the room that isn't being used for anything is warm to the touch. This obviously isn't good. I was a noob before this running two overclocked S1s with one Corsair CX750M and have apparently bit off more than I can chew. Any help from one of you vets would be highly appreciated Need to know what amp circuit the room is using. A 15A circuit has a max of 1800 watts, but you should probably keep it under 1440 watts. A 20A circuit has a max of 2400 watts, which is what I have, and they say to keep below 1920 watts, but I'm running a little over 2000 watts. (80% of max for continuous load.) You could have the wrong grade of wiring. A lower grade wire will get hot, and could even cause a fire if not up to specifications. For example, if wire that was rated for a 15A circuit was used with a 20A circuit. Even with 2000 watts, my outlets are not hot to the touch, and barely warm. Hey Missouri! Thanks for the input! The circuit is 15A actually. Spoke with the guru of all things electrical (my pops) and he said that the wiring in my new house is total sh*t. **NOTE - don't assume that just because you've paid a ton for a new house that the wiring is exceptional**. Therefore, I am on the hunt for a good electrician to swing by and solve my problem for me. Adding another circuit (and possibly upgrading the current wiring) is in the cards because NOT mining is not haha. Thanks again! Cheers - \m/ you supposed to run only 3 overclocked S3 on a 15A circuit (at 110/120V). You might barely run four, but at the regular speed (not overclocked). Six is seriously pushing it-prone to disaster. However, check you circuits-I have two close by, so just connect three miners to one and the rest to another circuit. |
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So why aren't they presently taking those actions?
It is probably not allowed to them. There are things you cannot do if you are poor. Then there are things you cannot do if you are a billionaire. Both groups intuitively know them. The things are very different. let's focus on millionaires then, as they seem to be more conducive to bitcoin appeal . |
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do you mean the % of humans on the planet, or the % of bitcoin users?
it's impossible for more than 0.295% of the world population to ever have 1 bitcoin, so if bitcoin becomes mainstream, everyone with 1 bitcoin will be the top 0.295% at the least.
but this is assuming 21 million people all have 1 bitcoin, but of course some people have more than 1 bitcon, and many people have less.
so in reality, even less than 0.295% of the world population will have 1 bitcoin. The distribution may be something like this
Top 20% (of world population)
owns about 0.011 (11 millibitcoin) on average. (note that this is the UPPER CLASS)
they have a total of about 15 million bitcoin combined
High 20%
owns an average of 0.0025 bitcoin per person (2.5 millibitcoin)
they have just over 3.5 million bitcoin combined
Middle 20%
average of 0.00075 bitcoin (0.75 millibitcoin)
they have just about a million bitcoin combined (divided over 1.43 billion people!) Note that this is 'middle class'. Having 1 bitcoin would mean you're about 1333 times richer than middle class!
Low 20%
they own just about 200,000 bitcoin combined, each of them having an average of about 0.00015 bitcoin (0.15 millibitcoin)
Bottom 20%
the bottom 1 430 000 000 people will have less than 0.000075 (7500 satoshi) each, their entire 'fortune' is what we now refer to as 'dust'.
The total amount of bitcoin in the bottom 20% of the world will be hardly even 100,000 bitcoin
do you see why many of us think 1 bitcoin would be 1 million+ in value? They are more scarce than you'd think.
this is correct from the math standpoint, but cannot be correct from the social standpoint. 0.01BTC is way too small amount for the top 20%. BTC has to be at $10-50 mil for it to be possible from the social standpoint. There are other possible solutions: 1. bitcoin derivatization like fractional banking system where there will be a <home>coin that will be derived at 1:100 from btc, people will use homecoin, but banks will hold certain percentage of btc against the value of homecoin. 2. more than 21 mil will be printed/mined. 3. a coin with more than 21 mil units will take over. |
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Can't be much of "this week" left... still no details and sales are not open.
This week... oops...Just kidding, can't sell because BTC is too low. |
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I think that the main force preventing the widespread adoption of bitcoin is that elites don't have much inducement to use bitcoin.
The majority of bitcoins ever existing were already mined and are in possession of early adopters (mostly) and I don't see how current paper billionaires can redistribute btc toward themselves.
Current billionaires are unable to accumulate any decent % of their wealth (6.5 trillion) in bitcoin. Just 1% of 6.5 trillion is 65 billion, which is more than ten times BTC market cap.
Billionaires might be tempted if major currencies would be failing, but all major currencies are quite stable with benign inflation in most parts of the industrialized world.
This (transition from fiat to crypto) might take longer than I envisioned last year, maybe 50-100 years.
To maintain their wealth should bitcoin supersede fiat, your hypothetical billionaire would only need to acquire the same % of the bitcoin money supply that he presently controls of the fiat money supply. Let's consider only the USD. US M2 is approximately $11.5 trillion, and let's assume billionaire Bob has exactly $1,000,000,000 in USD (we ignore his other assets [companies, real estate, etc] as these aren't directly affected by a transition to bitcoin). He thus controls $1x10^9 / $11.5x10^12 = 0.0087% of the USD money supply. To control the same % of bitcoins (at full issuance), he needs: 0.000087 x 21,000,000 = 1826 BTC At $400 / BTC, that would require an investment of just under 3/4 of a million dollars--less than 0.1% of his total USD holdings. One could purchase this amount of bitcoins very easily without significantly moving the price. So that's the amount he needs in order to "hedge." But our hypothetical billionaire is a billionaire for a reason. If he believes that his other fellow billionaires will hedge in a similar way, he can see that while his action may not cause much price slippage, the action of everyone hedging like this will cause slippage--a lot of slippage. So now he has an inducement to actually purchase a speculative position on top of his "hedging" position--and to make those purchases sooner rather than later. And if he does this, he actually gains in a potentially big way should bitcoin adoption continue. I would suggest that an average billionaire did not take this action...YET, otherwise we would hear much more about how wonderful bitcoin is. Also, these numbers would simply hedge. Why would an average billionaire be simply consent to equal his bitcoin position to his relative fiat position? My point is the transition will happen very slowly as to not perturb the elite ranks too much. |
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At what point south of -0.8 log delta does the model need to be adjusted?
I would wait until the next bubble peak to adjust the model, or 2015 whichever is first. The left end of the logistic function is constrained to fit through the first recorded price. The right end of the model, I try to fit so that the recent variation is balanced above and below the line. If I were to fit the line today, I would balance the current price against the peak last November, and the trend line would likely pass through the low price in April 2014. Thanks to all of you for watching this model unfold.below -0.9 log delta and the line has gone down vertically in the last few days. from the stock market-for reversal you typically need a capitulation (1-3 days) with an extremely high volume. I posit that it will occur before the beginning of November (similarly to 2011 bottom). We seem to be in a purely technical decline right now. Priceline was in such decline from $900 (split adjusted from 150) to $6 (split adjusted from 1) before it reversed itself and is currently $1186. |
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I think that the main force preventing the widespread adoption of bitcoin is that elites don't have much inducement to use bitcoin.
The majority of bitcoins ever existing were already mined and are in possession of early adopters (mostly) and I don't see how current paper billionaires can redistribute btc toward themselves.
Current billionaires are unable to accumulate any decent % of their wealth (6.5 trillion) in bitcoin. Just 1% of 6.5 trillion is 65 billion, which is more than ten times BTC market cap.
Billionaires might be tempted if major currencies would be failing, but all major currencies are quite stable with benign inflation in most parts of the industrialized world.
This (transition from fiat to crypto) might take longer than I envisioned last year, maybe 50-100 years.
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Legalized theft of personal bank accounts will happen by 2016. In germany, next year. People are slow to catch on, but once a critical mass of them do, things will change quick.
Germany? No way. It has to happen in much less well to do countries first before it EVER gets to Germany. |
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If you're asking if we intend to release more advance products in 2015 then the answer is yes.
Good to hear, this 'mining game' is getting really rather thin on the rewards side as of late. mining game is highly leveraged to the price of bitcoin. At $1000, all current miners would become highly profitable (at least in $$ terms) Personally, i don't typically sell mined bitcoin because I don't have to, but others (especially large operations) sell. |
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Hi Guy,
Could you, please let Barbara know that I'm waiting for her response about the order number #2666.
The weekend's almost up and I don't want to wait until Monday for the banks to start processing their transactions again.
Cheers,
P
It's the weekend in Israel. Eh ok thanks, I thought you still work on Fridays like some of us do here, on Saturdays. Well then I just have to wait until Monday then. Shabbat: http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/Judaism/shabbat.htmlNot only is it a day of rest, but Walter Sobchak doesn't roll on Shabbos. but he helps The Dude in emergency, but it has to be a "f... emergency, man" |
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