You can't get 100%, you can just minimize the risk and then each individual has to decide on their own, if it's worth the risk. If you wait until everything is 100% safe, you will probably have to wait for years, if not forever

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For todays last game of the season, I can't spot any good bet. After watching the 1st leg, I don't see Ingolstadt turning things around, because Nürnberg just looked too strong and focused. Nürnberg should look to score a goal here, then they can relax a bit. A game to watch, wait for things to unfold and looking for opportunities inplay. If I was Ingolstadt, I wouldn't go all-in right from the start; you have 90 minutes to score two goals and it's enough to open up in 60th minute as well. Top priority should be to not concede first. Thus I am expecting boring and low-scoring game for quite some time and more action towards the end maybe. So late goals should be something to look for.

104-71 FT
89-122 FT
91-64 FT
+2.15

If only it was that easy all the time. Guangdong is really unbelievable; I rarely saw a team being that dominant. They can basically decide on their own how a match ends. If they would go full throttle every match, they could regularly win with 50+, but there are no points available for completely crushing your opponent.

Profit: +11.00   
Yield: 15.07%   
W-L: 10-7
Win rate: 58.82%   
Average Stake: 4.29   
Average Odds: 2.30

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There was a good bet for tomorrow when odds came out, but the lines have moved and it's not worth to recommend now anymore, because most likely the value is gone.

Good post @20kevin20.


It definitely is, thats why it's interesting to hear different opinions while I am myself are still struggling with this topic. I didn't completely make my mind up yet regarding this matter.

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I don't think I agree with this. ETH is probably a bad example, since even when you click the sell button for $25, you will get matched higher, unless you have gazillions of ETH and can bring the price down to $25 with it.
But lets assume there is a "naked" market in an exchange for ETH. The price everywhere else is $250 and my bot puts up ETH to sell for $25 in this naked market, because I missed a zero there maybe. Would you buy them ? According to first quote, you are exploiting/scamming (me), since you "consciously take advantage" of an obvious mistake - whether it's software based or manual misclick doesn't matter here imo. According to second quote, it's my fault and ok to buy them.

In both cases there is a software issue, but different entities.

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You can for example bet on a home win in football in different manners. You can play the "1" for home win or AHC -0.5 - both are the same. If odds are 2.00 for both and you are able to parlay them, you will get 2.00 x 2.00 = 4.00 odds.

Are bets allowed in here ? I hope so

I played over 15.5 classified riders @1.85 in F1 this weekend for medium stakes. Weather will be colder this time, which should help with the brakes getting too hot. Mercedes and Honda are said to have figured out what went wrong last week and should be able to fix it. Already in the last years we saw the cars getting more and more reliable and the number of cars completing the races went up steadily.

>15,5 cars classified:

2017: 60.0%
2018: 66.7%
2019: 90.5%

>17.5 cars classified:

2017: 15.0%
2018: 23.8%
2019: 66.7%

Sources: 2017, 2018, 2019

I guess everyone is aware of the Bitcasino incident, which was also discussed afterwards in this thread. This is a topic that I thought about a lot in the past and which is super interesting, with even philosophical tendencies. And I guess it's a hot topic, with lots of different opinions and emotions.

I will stick with exploiting vs scamming here to make it easier. There is probably a fine line between these two phrases, but there is also exploiting and exploiting, scamming and scamming.

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1) Lets start with a simple example, a football match, which is offered by every bookmaker you can imagine. There is breaking news, that team A will miss a lot of their players due to a flu. Odds are dropping like crazy in all bookmakers, but there is one bookmaker that is slow and has bad software. While all bookmakers only offer 1.40-ish for team B anymore, that bookmaker still has the initial 2.00 for them. Is it ok to bet on this 2.00 ? What if a bookmaker is constantly slow with adjusting odds and you could regularly do it ? Not for 2.00 -> 1.40, but maybe 2.00 -> 1.80.

2) By accident you discover that a bookmaker allows to parlay 1X2 and Asian Handicap market, which is of course a software issue. So you could parlay home win with AHC -0.5 for all kind of matches, which will give you good value odds. Is it ok to parlay these two dependant bets ?

3) This is the quote from user LAngel from that thread above (can't quote properly, because thread is locked)


Is it ok to take advantage of this software issue in general ? For $20 ? For $500k ? (Leave aside the fact, that LAngel played with "cheated" money).

4) Lets say I have a trading bot (in betting or crypto exchange) and this bot goes wild due to misprogramming and I lose loads of money. Are all these users filling my orders scammers, when it's obvious that these prices are wrong ?

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What of the above is an exploit and what is a scam ? Where does an exploit start and a scam begin ? Are you clever or a cheater when doing this ? Is it more ok to do it for $10 than for $10,000 or $1.5mln like LAngel did ? Is it more ok to do it with a supposedly rich casino/bookmaker ?

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And what about fixed matches ? These matches do exist, every day there is match fixing, but most of the time we gladly don't know or aren't aware. If you (get to) know about a fixed match and bet on it, does that make you a scammer/cheater ?

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Gambling is a (most of the time unfair) competition in the end. Should the "software factor" be completely called immoral and unethical behaviour, when you take advantage of it ? If there is a line for you, where is it ?

There is way more to this discussion imo, but I will leave this as a start and we can work out more as this thread evolves (hopefully).

I made this thread self-moderated, because these kind of threads unfortunately get spammy very fast, with a lot of users just repeating things over and over.

My losers for the Multimaster Lots of games where I have no idea tbh. EPL had home win - draw - away win at 48% - 17% - 35% since restart, so few-ish draws. In La Liga we had 42% - 30% - 28 %, which looks more standard. Serie A is similar to EPL with 44% - 19% - 37 %. So I put in some draws for EPL/Serie A and had wild guesses for the spanish games, disregarding draws. Went with purple this time, maybe this is my lucky colour.

Norwich City - West Ham United DRAW
Watford - Newcastle United DRAW
Liverpool - Burnley
Osasuna - Celta Vigo
Lazio - Sassuolo DRAW
Brescia - Roma
Rosenborg BK - Strømsgodset
Juventus - Atalanta DRAW (this should be a good game)
Wolverhampton - Everton
Levante - Athletic Bilbao
Tottenham - Arsenal DRAW
Udinese - Sampdoria DRAW (H2H looks a bit 3for3 in recent years)
Leganés - Valencia
Bournemouth - Leicester City DRAW
Napoli - Milan DRAW

There weren't a lot of good bets after the short-ish break, so lets get things rolling again with a small fav-parlay. Normally there shouldn't be any "issues", but we are still in CBA, so you never know Normally the lowest odds in a parlay is the one that gives you headaches, so the brave ones can try their luck with Shanghai and oppose me^^

Xinjiang - Shanxi ML Xinjiang @1.15
Shanghai - Guangdong ML Guangdong @1.01
Beijing - Jilin ML Beijing @1.23
parlay @1.43 5/10

Making a bit of money is still better than making no money at all And you have contracts and TV rights, where you might have to pay a penalty, so you can even lose money. I would think that gate receipts are only a smaller percentage of the overall revenue for the teams/NFL; in german Bundesliga it's ~15% for 17 home games. An NFL team has 8 home games with 70k average attendance and higher ticket prices, but the % look to be similar:

Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/193364/percentage-of-ticketing-revenue-in-the-nfl-since-2006/

Even if it's 20%, still making 80% is better than making 0% and having to pay penalties.

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8-10 players won't be easy, not sure, if we even have 8-10 regular posters in this and the old thread But maybe the closer we get to regular season, the more people come out of their caves and with some advertisement, we could get a good number.

I am fine with any time for a live draft, can be in the middle of the night, no problem. And I am also fine with any of the established members holding the funds, it's not millions in the end and if anyone wants to scam ~0.02 BTC from a community game, well, then so be it.

Diese "Analysen" sind natürlich oftmals Schwachsinn, trotzdem erwähne ich mal, dass Xaya es auf die "Top Trending" list von Blockonmy geschafft hat :


Quelle: https://twitter.com/blocknomy/status/1280889412205678593

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Für Taurion Treasure Hunt #3 ist jetzt schon die Webseite da und der geneigte Spieler kann sich dort über die neuen Features informieren. Da ich nicht mit Spielern aus diesem Forumsbereich rechne, erspare ich mir Einzelheiten Ende Juli soll das Ganze starten, wird dann aber wohl eher August

Diese Gebäude erinnern mich immer ein bisschen an Küchengeräte, sehen aber ziemlich fesch aus finde ich:


Quelle: https://taurion.io/treasure-hunt-3/

If you are not handicapped or young, they cost from 18,- Euro (standing) to 58,- Euro. 20% more against Bayern/Schalke. Tickets for my local team are more expensive for certain games and they don't even play Bundesliga

For comparison Bayern tickets are a bit more expensive in the higher categories (15,- to 70,-):


Source: https://fcbayern.com/binaries/content/assets/downloads/homepage/ticketing/preisliste-2019_20.pdf?v=1573135934681

For a smaller team like Augsburg it's not that much cheaper compared to Dortmund (14,- to 45,- Euro).

I think I am the only one who thinks that this reasoning is a bit vague. I can't argue about the KYC documents, but a few things are a bit


How can this (still) be possible, if....


....you knew about this being possible before.


Why was this user still allowed to play on your site ?

I think you should take some blame too for a) leaving some possible exploit on the table and b) still sticking with the user, as long as he was probably "useful".


This is really just some support, but no proof. It's not forbidden to send crypto to a friend, who happens to also have an account at the same site you are playing. I do this all the time with a friend of mine, and we are different persons, with seperate accounts and not multi-accounting. We would also fund the other ones account from our own BTC addresses. Probably not very clever though In the end these blockchain transactions are just circumstantial evidence imo.

For me the possibility of no 2020 NFL season is next to zero. It would take very special circumstances to cancel it all together, there is just too much money involved and as we all know money makes the world go round Look at german football (soccer) Bundesliga. Lots of shops were still closed, gatherings of more than 3 persons were forbidden, masks mandatory in all indoor places, but football started again. And the Bundesliga isn't as powerful as the NFL is. Now you basically have all leagues in Europe playing again, that weren't cancelled; Basketball is played again too. All this with sophisticated hygiene concepts, no spectators and it worked; I didn't hear of any issues.

This virus is relatively easy to control in the end, if everyone is on the same page and shows just some discipline (a bit of social distancing and wearing a mask is enough). What a lot of people in the US don't seem to understand is, that if you show discipline for some weeks, you can be "done" with this relatively fast and go back to normal step by step. If you refuse to co-operate and insist on your "freedom" (which is good in general, but not with this matter), you will be stuck in this situation waaaaaaaaaaay longer. 

The situation in general is embarrassing enough for the US and if they fail to have something like a NFL season, this would be even more embarrassing imo, because it's all in their power to improve the situation.

Even if the situation is like it is now by August/September, I still think the NFL would start (because money). Only if the situation worsens even more, I could think of the season being postponed. Only postponed though, because money again. To cancel the whole season, I don't know what would have to happen. Since you are also active in the US election thread, I will post this quote from Condoleezza Rice here, which I also posted/referred to in that thread:

Source: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/presidential-election-postponed/

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As for NBA and MLB, this is even easier to manage imo. NBA has small rosters/staff and Baseball is no-contact sport 99% of the time and outdoor in a lot of places; biggest problem is probably the chewing tobacco and the spitting For NHL not sure, because they have bigger rosters, there is a lot of contact and the arenas are cold-ish, which is something this virus seems to prefer from all we know.

It's all about money. Why do you think we have 7 different kick-off times in Bundesliga nowadays ? Why is the CL played on Tuesdays/Wednesdays and the EL on Thursdays (where you then have to put Bundesliga matches on Sundays) ? Why is there a UEFA Nations League, when players always complain about too many games or too short breaks ? Why was the World Cup 2022 given to Qatar, a country that has no business in football ?

With these relegation playoff matches, there is money to be made and that is why we have them (again). And we are all part of this system, because we watch those games and make it worth for FIFA, UEFA, DFL etc. to keep milking football. We are all guilty

I am super curious how this will end Normally I would say there is no way that OP gets paid and the fact, that Bitcasino takes rather long, shows that they don't really trust their software and/or the user; checking the KYC documents should only take a minute, because this case is surely super high priority^^. I would be very interested to have a look behind the curtains.

From my experience, if a site doesn't want to pay you, they will find a way. Now for Bitcasino there is a lot at stake and from what I observed they have a clean record and good reputation & support (in this forum) - you will always have a few accusations here and there against any casino/bookmaker; mostly from frustrated users that lost money. If it just was about Bitcasino, I think they would not pay and probably vanish, but in this case that would also mean that Sportsbet is kind of done and thus I think they will pay in the end.

It will take some time to recover the losses, but it's just a question of "when" and not "if". And there is a lot to be won in terms of reputation. It's also a very good event to push some marketing, so don't worry too much OP, if everything was legit from your side and you never violated the T&C

Ingolstadt looks completely lost today, which might be due to Nürnberg being super strong. The new coaches seem to have done good work in getting the players reset on a mental level again.
Apparently Ingolstadt coach Oral lied about the status of Stefan Kutschke being match-fit and thus I hope that Nürnberg will crush them, even if that loses my bet

Patrick Mahomes signed a new little contract, which makes him halfway through a billionaire, the highest paid athlete ever and the first NFL player to lead this category.
Couldn't believe my eyes ( ) when I saw the news. This is probably deserved all things considered, but also just out of this world. I like it though, since Mahomes is exciting to watch and Reid the right guy to even develop him further as the offensive genius he is. 

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Regarding the preseason schedule, the NFLPA has voted to skip it entirely, while the NFL is more thinking about cutting it down to two games for this season. As much as I dislike preseason, I think going into competition with no preseason is not a good idea. There is a huge difference between practice vs competition and the preseason is something inbetween, which also helps a bit with player safety and getting your body/muscles/mind more match fit. If we go from practice straight into regular season, we will see some pretty strange and random results I guess - and probably more injuries.

lol Dude is 33 years old and he should be happy to still have some good years in 2. Bundesliga But that goal was pretty nice indeed, 99% of high paid forwards fail to put it in the net like that. A real circus shot. He must feel really bad, because of all the things Heidenheim didn't want to happen, an early Werder goal was probably #1. The game would/could have gone in a complete different direction, if Theuerkauf just would have thought like a forward being very keen to score a fantastic goal and instead kicking the ball into the stands, while trying to go for glory.

I don't think it has to be flat stakes. Every reasonable staking system is fine - don't forget that you lose some value by going with flat stakes all the time. If a system is going +/-0 with flat stakes, you can choose to fine-tune your staking and not go flat anymore and might be in profit with the same system (or sit at a loss, if your staking is bad).

Why do you think it HAS to be flat stakes ?

Yep, you are probably right here. I live with a female "president" for ages already and all good, so I maybe find it a bit weird, that people still kind of refuse to vote for a female politician/leader, when there are very good examples of women leading countries successfully. It shouldn't be about gender, but about quality in the end. (And as a personal note: I think the world would be a better place, if we only had women as leaders).

What also is a bit strange to me, is the fact of a rather old gentleman running for presidency. Age shouldn't be a criteria as well, but Biden is showing signs of just being a bit too old already. Here, a politician of his age, would just enjoy his retirement and a fat pension, maybe showing up in some political talk shows from time to time. I don't think we have any active politician being 75+.

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My issue probably is, that I just look until November 3rd 2020, I basically don't care what happens afterwards, while those people that actually go voting look for everything that might happen after Nov 3rd And during this time window I see Trump being way stronger against Biden than he was against Hillary. While Biden always comes over as a bit clumsy to me, Hillary was very good in verbally defending herself. Just from a rhetorical point of view, not necessarily content-wise. And as I said before, I expect Trump to eat Biden alive in the debates

Hehe, I loved those last minutes, traders paradise, I just missed to lay Werder again after they scored the 2-1 Very nice result. We keep to see Werder in Bundesliga and Heidenheim can keep vulturing 2. Bundesliga with ugly football.


For Bundesliga vs. 2. Bundesliga I would agree, but for 2. Bundesliga vs. Dritte Liga not - quality difference between the teams is not that big there. At the end of a season I would rate a good 3rd division better than a bottom 2nd division team. This also reflects in playoff results, where since its re-introduction 3rd division teams had the upper hand 8/11, so complete opposite.

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Ingolstadt X2 is my bet for today, odds are already dropping. They have been one hell of an away team this season going 10-5-4 with 29-16 goals scored. Especially those only 16 conceded goals is a very nice stat, when we look at the home record of Nürnberg, which is pathetic with 3-7-7 and 15-31 goals scored.
Ingolstadt just played on Saturday and Nürnberg had a longer break (9 days), which could be some advantage in the latter stages. At least Ingolstadt didn't have long travels going to Munich and now to Nürnberg. Stefan Kutschke (13 goals), who left the 1860 game injured, will be available, which is good news.
I can imagine Nürnberg being happy with a scoreless draw here, because they are aware of their good away record and Ingolstadt's abysmal home record, so they could put their focus on the 2nd leg a bit, just trying to come unscathed out of 1st leg. While they probably would be happy with it, I don't think they will just sit back and wait for the 90 minutes to pass by, which should play in the hands of Ingolstadt then and I can even imagine them taking all "3 points" here. But this is something to figure out inplay then. Ingolstadt HC-1 for odds above 8.00 looks tempting though.