Well I got out my 150 BTC with a profit of 7 BTC (10 - 3 for withdrawal) Can't complain about a free $50  still making money too, either the site is bugged and the guy's losing money or some sort of ponzi thing is still going on Hmmm sounds like an interesting bug. Maybe everyone should withdraw and see what happens/ I already emailed them about it. If they are legit, they should know. If they aren't, well then there's not much we can do anyway. They will win in the end, because they can just start refusing withdrawals. To me this looks to good to be true, but I'm not going to call them anything without proof. In the mean time, I'm playing around with some change on the site  |
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From this, I choose to approach her with more sympathy and understanding. As a result of my change in action, she has more energy to deal with the conflict within her and gets over her bitchiness quickly. This is a real example of how astrology has improved my life.
Don't you think sympathy and understanding would almost always help, regardless of what the cause of her bitchyness was? Or to take an even more extreme example, what do you think would happen if you left her alone for a while? Because of the fact she is already Bitchy, it will most likely only improve from there, since more extreme situations (even bitchier) are more unlikely than her returning to normal. This is called Regression to the Mean. But how do I have understanding without an explanation? If I ask her for one, I get some superficial BS like "someone looked at me the wrong way". Yes, she would get better if left alone, but sometimes I need her to return to normal quicker. I have tried both ways. Understanding the energy she's dealing with helps the process along tremendously. Being able to make her feel like I understand what she is going through is tremendously helpful, and I am unable to do that without astrology. Science is great, until you involve people and emotions. Yes, in your eyes you might be being nice to her because of those negative energies she is dealing with, but in her eyes you might just be being nice. It doesn't really matter why you act the way you do, but if you trying to be nice because of those energies, she can benefit from you being nice just because you're nice (Which is of course a good thing!) and get back to normal quicker. It doesn't really matter what caused it, but in my opinion it's just so far fetched to seek a reason in the stars, when there's a bazillion other things that could have caused her behavior. Humans are complex creatures after all! |
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Lot of 6.9x action on goxlive! Coming back down up.  |
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I'm outta here!  Hahahahahahha :p |
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Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias, myside bias or verification bias) is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses.
I see unexplained behavior. I seek new information. That new information explains the behavior. Sounds more like the scientific method than confirmation bias to me. wrong. science involves explaining behavior through models. 1. unexplained behavior 2. form hypothesis about correlation/causation between two variables 3. verify if causation holds given the evidence there is no model here besides 'stars affect personality types'. this hypothesis needs to be tested. furthermore, unless a mechanism can demonstrate causation, it is a correlation at best (think ice cream sales and drownings). your bias is assuming the model, and therefore focusing on the predictions of astrology that 'fit' your common sense (and most likely disregarding far more than you realize) From this, I choose to approach her with more sympathy and understanding. As a result of my change in action, she has more energy to deal with the conflict within her and gets over her bitchiness quickly. This is a real example of how astrology has improved my life. Don't you think sympathy and understanding would almost always help, regardless of what the cause of her bitchyness was? Or to take an even more extreme example, what do you think would happen if you left her alone for a while? Because of the fact she is already Bitchy, it will most likely only improve from there, since more extreme situations (even bitchier) are more unlikely than her returning to normal. This is called Regression to the Mean. |
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I hope people don't mean they are short and long at the same time?  Why? Because they (partially) cancel each other out? You're just paying spreads for no good reason. I like to think I have good reason to pay what I (choose to) pay Personally, my strategy is not to hold two opposing positions together, at equal amounts anyway... That WOULD be kinda silly. Yeah, but it doesn't matter if they aren't equal. If you short for 100BTC on one account and go long for 20BTC on another, you might as well pick just one position and go short for 80BTC. That way you are only paying fees over a 80BTC trade opposed to 2 trades equaling 120BTC. Price movements would effect both options the same way. If fees were an issue at Bitcoinica, I would understand this logic. Zhou makes his money from the spread, which because of its size, it is difficult to jump into a position and immediately start profiting. Those spreads work the exact same way for the customer, except that they are dynamic in the sense that they are constantly recalculated by the algorithm whereas fees are a set percentage of the price. Either way, as a customer you're not getting as many BTC/USD when making the trade as you would without those fees/spreads. You are paying those fees (spreads in this case) over a lot more BTC if you take multiple opposing positions. But even if you look at it _without_ those spreads, why would anyone take opposing positions? I can't find _any_ advantage that it might bring. Am I missing something? |
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Please look up the definition of "illusory correlation". Might explain a lot more than those stars =)
Definition:
An illusory correlation is the perception of a relationship between two variables when only a minor or absolutely no relationship actually exists. For example, people sometimes assume that because two events occurred together at one point in the past, that one event must be the cause of the other. These illusory correlations can occur both in scientific investigations and in real-world situations.
Stereotypes are a good example of illusory correlations. Research has shown that people tend to assume that certain groups and traits occur together, and frequently overestimate the strength of the association between the two variables. For example, let's suppose that a man holds a mistaken belief that all people from small towns are extremely kind. When the individual meets a very kind person, his immediate assumption might be that the person is from a small town, despite the fact that kindness is not related to city population.
You are wrong because sometimes people are wrong. Got ya. It sure explains a lot. What it means is that people see something in the stars, then something happens, and then attribute the thing that happened to the stars, even though there was no such relationship. That other post explained it really well. You can't test the hypothesis if the stars influence personality, events and other things like that. |
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Please look up the definition of "illusory correlation". Might explain a lot more than those stars =)
Definition:
An illusory correlation is the perception of a relationship between two variables when only a minor or absolutely no relationship actually exists. For example, people sometimes assume that because two events occurred together at one point in the past, that one event must be the cause of the other. These illusory correlations can occur both in scientific investigations and in real-world situations.
Stereotypes are a good example of illusory correlations. Research has shown that people tend to assume that certain groups and traits occur together, and frequently overestimate the strength of the association between the two variables. For example, let's suppose that a man holds a mistaken belief that all people from small towns are extremely kind. When the individual meets a very kind person, his immediate assumption might be that the person is from a small town, despite the fact that kindness is not related to city population.
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Astrology is insanity, and this is not the right forum for it.
Please move this superstitious nonsense to "Off-Topic".
Sure Western Astrology is bunk, but not necessary to move it, unless we are going to move all the threads about elliot waves, and whatever else people are on about these days  FTFY Western Astrology is based on a translation of Vedic Astrology that was accurate at the time it was translated. However, they simplified it by ignoring precession (earth's wobble on it's axis). In present day, western astrology is off by almost one whole sign. It's hard to make accurate predictions about how celestial bodies will effect us when all of their supposed positions are wrong. Vedic Astrology, OTOH, is accurate about positions and can be tremendously useful. When my girlfriend gets fussy, I check out her chart. It doesn't tell me exact details, but it lets me know the types of energy she is dealing with and when it will pass. It is often blindingly obvious where the behavior comes from once I look at the chart. It's also useful when I feel off and want to know why. Am I just inventing patterns where they don't exist? Perhaps. But, astrology is a tool that has eased my mind and helped me decide how to move forward several times. Life is always better after I check some charts and see what the hell is going on. Besides, I do believe that EM radiation from the sun bounces off each planet differently before it returns to us. It seems plausible to me that we are effected by how all those frequencies interact as they are seen from here on Earth. I have never explored using it for trading, as to me that seems cheap. I have too much respect for the usefulness of it to abuse it for monetary gain. + many 1's for defending astrology in a general sort of way... Like any other "science", it is just a method (or algorithm or set of rules) for computing machines (human brains) to take raw data and transform it into information (data with meaning). I find that even with the whole lack of account for precession in Western Astrology, I can still use the signs as they are and the archetypes that they attempt to explain to apply meaning to human behavior that would otherwise be completely random noise, and to divide behaviors into categories based on the archetypes so as to better organize the data in order to manipulate it into information (i.e., in order to better make sense of my environment). The main general argument from the layman I tend to hear against astrology in any form, is something like: "Yeah right, how can those stars and planets BILLIONS of light-years away possibly be affecting WHAT I'M DOING?" This general argument is usually easily countered by invoking the big-bang: Usually the layman will have some faith in the whole "Big Bang" theory. So you say something like, "OK, well if at one point everything was just a single thing, that blew up to form the Universe, then isn't everything in the Universe really just part of everything else? That is, Everything was at least at one point in time, Connected..." If I were the layman, I would counter-argue with extrapolation on the phrase "in time", and dicker as to whether the Big Bang happened in time or not I am not the layman though. please learn about confirmation bias, and about the psychological success of cold reading. then learn some astronomy, and you'll find that the constellation in which the sun rises on the birthdays bounded by the astrological symbols have shifted in the 2000 or so years such that the calibration is now completely off (ironically, by almost 1/12, such that the signs ought to be shifted roughly one over). then explain to me, even if it does somehow 'predict' personality archetypes, how correlation = (or even implies) causation; i.e. you have to find a mechanism through which the time of year you're born permanently and decidedly limits/predicts your personality. ...then get your head out of your ass and stop believing in star signs. really. +21397123791273 Please listen to this wise man  |
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I hope people don't mean they are short and long at the same time? Why? Because they (partially) cancel each other out? You're just paying spreads for no good reason. I like to think I have good reason to pay what I (choose to) pay Personally, my strategy is not to hold two opposing positions together, at equal amounts anyway... That WOULD be kinda silly. Yeah, but it doesn't matter if they aren't equal. If you short for 100BTC on one account and go long for 20BTC on another, you might as well pick just one position and go short for 80BTC. That way you are only paying fees over a 80BTC trade opposed to 2 trades equaling 120BTC. Price movements would effect both options the same way. |
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I hope people don't mean they are short and long at the same time? Why? Because they (partially) cancel each other out? You're just paying spreads for no good reason. |
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I hope people don't mean they are short and long at the same time? |
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Zhoutong, could you please tell if this is planned for the (near) future? Thanks |
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I was wondering if there are any plans to implement new order types? I would love to see both stop-limit orders and trailing-stop-limit orders Stop orders are kinda risky to use without a limit. Thanks! |
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The long-term trendline has held... for now. I will be staying out of the market for now -- it doesn't have a strong direction and I will be observing it.
If you don't mind me asking, what indicators/signs are going to get you back in? Breaking $7.20 barrier? Going below latest support? Just curious... Below long-term trendline: Short Above 7.2: Long And one of these will happen very soon... within this week. This is the biggest bullish wedge ever, and it'll be fun to watch, whichever way it goes. Could you please draw the current wedge you think is active? I'm very interested in what you think Thanks! |
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Source looks safe, and those screenshots are great! Thanks for creating this!
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What is CES?
this is sarcasm... ... ...right? No, but a google search cleared it up pretty quick. However, I couldn't find what CES stands for. Just what CEA stands for... Consumers Electronics Show |
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Zhoutong, I was wondering if there are any plans in the making involving added security for your site? Looking at the average daily volume that Bitcoinica produces, there must be quite a lot of funds in that place. The thing is, if someone manages to access your account, he can easily run off with BTC, because it's not reversible. I think a lot of people would appreciate a bit of added security for their accounts. I know I would. Could you please implement one of these two solutions?
1) SMS-authentication
2) Yubikey authentication
Thank you very much!
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