Also, will the BTCINVEST dividend include this week's as well as last week's AM dividend?
Yes. |
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Authorities can move in anytime and your shares will really becomes Nuts. Ticking Time Bomb
The CPC doesn't seem to want to bring down bitcoin. They've been pushing it on their state TV: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=194937.0http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/china-loves-bitcoins-7723There is always risk, but Friedcat is dealing with this: 2. Does ASICMINER/Bitfountain have any legal risks by doing business in China? Are cryptocurrencies or mining of virtual currencies allowed there?
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OFFICIAL RESPONSE FROM FRIEDCAT
2. Cryptocurrencies or mining of virtual currencies are OK. Exchanging them for fiat is less OK but the legal risk is mostly on the exchange operators' side. However as everyone knows, the policy in China is never predictable so there is indeed risks in the future. We have been considering and coping with this uncertainty from the day our chips passed the test and are on the start of building offshore company structures.
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Here's what I anticipate will happen within the next 48 hours. Someone(s) will decide to cash in a fuck ton of shares, which in turn will initiate a panic sale on behalf of the newbs, which I would not be surprised if it bottoms out as low as 2.5. Then the high rollers will swoop in before the dividend is announced (which apparently is going to be epic this week) and attempt to regain the shares that they sold plus a few extras at a lower price, thus securing them a hefty dividend, and a little profit to do with what they will. Then again, I could be totally wrong.
Someone already cashed in one of those* an hour or so ago. The wall is already half eaten, and the price on the exchanges is already back over 4.5. *1000 AM shares = 1 metric fuck ton. Maybe 10 Metric fuck tons then.  The only person both rich enough and just-take-my-bitcoins-I-never-loved-them-anyway enough to sell MFTs in that particular way only has 6.5 MFTs left, and he to needs to keep 5 MFTs to hang on to his board seat. |
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Someone(s) will decide to cash in a fuck ton of shares, which in turn will initiate a panic sale on behalf of the newbs, which I would not be surprised if it bottoms out as low as 2.5.
Someone already cashed in one of those* an hour or so ago. The wall is already half eaten, and the price on the exchanges is already back over 4.5. *1000 AM shares = 1 metric fuck ton. |
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I only have issues with the former, which is a ponzi.
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. |
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the wall would hold for a min or 2
FTFY |
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This guy nailed it... Instead of blaming ASICMINER for delivering what they promised, why not blame the "competition" for failing to deliver anything on time? If they did, ASICMINER wouldn't stand out so much. Their only fault is delivering on time.
This. The amount of sour grapes in this thread is ridiculous. Remember that it is BFL that is NINE MONTHS delivering their product. And it doesn't look like they are going to make the 90 day promise they made about a month ago either. Their promise of delivery back as far as October was completely fraudulent. They must have known they were months away from delivering every time they said they'd be shipping in 2 weeks. BFL customers should be pissed as this was blatant illegal behavior. Avalon is also multiple months late on batch 2 and just last week they said they'd be finished shipping by the end of the month. Well, here it is July 1st and all of batch 2 has not been shipped out yet. Also there is plenty of evidence that they were mining with customers machines in the meantime. That is bad. Very bad. Now, let's look at ASICMiner. They developed a working product, and have both mined and sold it and sold shares which have returned higher dividends than anyone could have expected. If you bought shares just a few months ago you would have 5 times your money just from the share price alone! Their hardware was expensive, but they delivered immediately and the hardware worked as claimed so plenty of people bought it anyways. IMO, they priced the hardware PERFECTLY. Any lower and they would have been screwing over their shareholders! Remember that they had no competition for mining hardware at the time! Neither Avalon nor BFL could sell you a product they would deliver right away. ASICMiner has been nothing but trustworthy so far. If you are frustrated by their success, just buy some shares and share in the profits. |
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I expect to see a HUGE price spike the next time friedcat posts... I actually have btc sitting and waiting to buy in the second he posts, and then I will sell on the spike!
Why even sell on the spike? It's not trollboxland where every pump is followed by a dump. This is Friedcatland, all spikes so far have just stabilized out until the next spike! |
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I'm doing my part to keep prices sane....I've put up a bunch of asks on btctc...unless AM suddenly starts issuing 0.05 dividends...I'm not pulling them
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Don't worry, BFL will catch up later with 2PH, so far they just warmed up
Any source? or is it just a conjecture? I think he was joking. BFL couldn't catch a cold. Unless "later" means delivered around 2140, just in time to mine the last satoshi. |
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Sold all the walls, looking to hit the 0.3 in a few days
Just 6 days and it hit the 0.3+ price That's probably around what the NAV/share is already, given the current jump in ASICMiner shares as various recent bits of news start to sink in. Most of BTCInvest is in ASICMiner. |
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You mght want to hurry because AM share holders would LOVE to dump some shares at 4 BTC+ per one to you. Youmight want to do it before next dividend as it will be 1/2346789123456 of dividends you'd need to me ROI after buying AM share.
Hurry up, it's amazing opportunity.
*Disclaimer - it could really be an amazing opportunity as you never know, there's always enough idiots around who might buy your share for 7-8 BTC per piece.
You've been playing this tune for a while. Back when ASICMiner had a share price of .84, you said it was worth 0.02 per share. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=159194.msg1844709#msg1844709 |
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Speculation Price is rising where is Jutaruls second wall going to be 5 The wall previous to 2.5 was at 0.5, there was nothing between them. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=148198.0So if he's going in multiples of five... 12.5 No guarantee he'll follow that pattern though. If he's sensible he'll stop dropping so many all in one go at fixed price. He has the right to do so, it's a free market, but it's throwing BTC away. |
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It's going parabolic. AM's value didn't go up 40% in 2 days, so why should the share price be. This is a bubble.
ThisMore like 20% in 2 days. So far at least... It was undervalued. The price is rising to closer reflect the value. |
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Smoothie, please could you start a new locked thread from where you'll later announce the release of Lealana, so we can watch that thread instead?  |
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Don't know if anyone has done this before but based on current 3600 coins mined per day, and 400,000 total AM shares.
If AM controls 20% of the mining share: (0.2 x (3600 x 7))/400000 = 0.0126 dividend per share based on mining revenue
Likewise, for 30% = 0.0189
And 40% = 0.0252 (as I understand AM will not go above 40%)
I think AM can safely hold about 20% of the total hashrate at the very least, on average. So as far as mining goes, one can safely accept that about 0.013-0.018 dividend should be easily maintained
So expecting a total dividend of 0.03 in perpetuity will place a great burden on hardware sales. I am not sure that hardware sales can consistently generate 0.017-0.012 per share, allowing us to have a weekly dividend of 0.03 when added to the mining component.
I'm prepared to be surprised of course but IMO average dividends by AM should be about 0.02-0.025, when seen over the long term...this is my estimate.
Based on that, fair valuation (using approx 25-30% as minimum expected annual yield) will be between 3.46 (very conservative) - 5.2 (very bullish).
Taking the midpoint of the two puts neutral valuation at about BTC4.3/share. Thats pretty much where we are now and I hope that's where we stay.
I'm comfortable with current pricing levels but not anything higher than 4.5.
Couldn't AM mine using a pool after they hit the 40% for solo-mining? Anyways, selling hardware is even better than mining. You get the money when you sell it instead of waiting for the coins to be mined. We know the demand is there. And as people trust Friedcat more and more, they'll be happy with a smaller annual yield than 25%. He's already given back far more than they received at the IPO, so honesty isn't in question at this point, and neither is competence. And all this is assuming AM just does what it's doing now but gets better at it. I'm sure if Friedcat comes up against a wall where there's just no way to make much more money out of mining hardware, he'll just pull something else out of the hat. Oh, and more than 3600 coins on average are mined a day, because the hashrate is increasing fast, but difficulty adjusts only every 2 weeks. |
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Based on last dividend of 0.019 we're looking at about 24% yield at a price of $4. Buyers, please stop here, ASICminer is almost fully valued (IMO).
If you're bullish about future earnings being consistently at or around 0.03 I suppose one could keep buying up till about $5.3. But I personally think this is risky.
Dividends have been roughly growing for a year. Thinking that as soon as the average reaches 0.03 they'll permanently flatten out at that is bearish, not bullish. |
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If for whatever reason all cryptos became worthless tomorrow, your shares still have value because AM still has lots of fiat & sellable assets
Sellable assets such as... bitcoin miners? More the self-built places they put them in that could presumably be made into regular server farms, if not just factories or offices, but more generally just anything they have that doesn't become useless if bitcoin dies. |
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