ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[blackreplica]

1 more share before hitting $4 on BTC-TC. Based on last dividend of 0.019 we're looking at about 24% yield at a price of $4. Buyers, please stop here, ASICminer is almost fully valued (IMO).

Average of last 5 is higher than 0.019

Given that the last 2 were 0.019 and 0.018 respectively I personally feel the conservatism of using 0.019 is more appropriate

If AM delivers 0.03 for the next couple weeks I'd be glad to revise my valuation though

Edit: Just saw last done price @ 4BTC. Congrats all ASICMINER-PT owners

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[dragony]

I am reevaluating my ASICMINER positions. I think it will jump to 5 very soon but I am not confident with further grow. I think more and more people are using ASICMINER-PT as a hedge against falling Bitcoin. You sell your Bitcoins or buy ASICMINER-PT. Mayhem would be if Bitcoin gradually falls to $30 and meanwhile strong competition for ASICMINER would emerge.

[Birdy]

There aren't many shares to buy until 4.5, it's quite possible to reach that soon.

[blackreplica]

Don't know if anyone has done this before but based on current 3600 coins mined per day, and 400,000 total AM shares.

If AM controls 20% of the mining share: (0.2 x (3600 x 7))/400000 = 0.0126 dividend per share based on mining revenue

Likewise, for 30% = 0.0189

And 40% = 0.0252 (as I understand AM will not go above 40%)

I think AM can safely hold about 20% of the total hashrate at the very least, on average. So as far as mining goes, one can safely accept that about 0.013-0.018 dividend should be easily maintained

So expecting a total dividend of 0.03 in perpetuity will place a great burden on hardware sales. I am not sure that hardware sales can consistently generate 0.017-0.012 per share, allowing us to have a weekly dividend of 0.03 when added to the mining component.

I'm prepared to be surprised of course but IMO average dividends by AM should be about 0.02-0.025, when seen over the long term...this is my estimate: based on mining revenue accounting for two thirds of the dividend and hardware sales accounting for the remaining third.

Based on that, fair valuation (using approx 25-30% as minimum expected annual yield, and dividends between 0.02-0.025 on average, in perpetuity) will be between:

BTC3.46 (very conservative, 0.02 assumed dividend with 30% yield required)

and

BTC5.2 (very bullish, 0.03 assumed dividend with 25% yield required).

Taking the midpoint of the two puts neutral valuation at about BTC4.3/share. Thats pretty much where we are now and I hope that's where we stay.

I'm comfortable with current pricing levels but not anything higher than 4.5.

[101111]

AM PT's on Bitfunder, divs are in  

BTC4.18 hit 

[TsuyokuNaritai]

Based on last dividend of 0.019 we're looking at about 24% yield at a price of $4. Buyers, please stop here, ASICminer is almost fully valued (IMO).

If you're bullish about future earnings being consistently at or around 0.03 I suppose one could keep buying up till about $5.3. But I personally think this is risky.

Dividends have been roughly growing for a year. Thinking that as soon as the average reaches 0.03 they'll permanently flatten out at that is bearish, not bullish.

[TsuyokuNaritai]

Don't know if anyone has done this before but based on current 3600 coins mined per day, and 400,000 total AM shares.

If AM controls 20% of the mining share: (0.2 x (3600 x 7))/400000 = 0.0126 dividend per share based on mining revenue

Likewise, for 30% = 0.0189

And 40% = 0.0252 (as I understand AM will not go above 40%)

I think AM can safely hold about 20% of the total hashrate at the very least, on average. So as far as mining goes, one can safely accept that about 0.013-0.018 dividend should be easily maintained

So expecting a total dividend of 0.03 in perpetuity will place a great burden on hardware sales. I am not sure that hardware sales can consistently generate 0.017-0.012 per share, allowing us to have a weekly dividend of 0.03 when added to the mining component.

I'm prepared to be surprised of course but IMO average dividends by AM should be about 0.02-0.025, when seen over the long term...this is my estimate.

Based on that, fair valuation (using approx 25-30% as minimum expected annual yield) will be between 3.46 (very conservative) - 5.2 (very bullish).

Taking the midpoint of the two puts neutral valuation at about BTC4.3/share. Thats pretty much where we are now and I hope that's where we stay.

I'm comfortable with current pricing levels but not anything higher than 4.5.

Couldn't AM mine using a pool after they hit the 40% for solo-mining?

Anyways, selling hardware is even better than mining. You get the money when you sell it instead of waiting for the coins to be mined. We know the demand is there.

And as people trust Friedcat more and more, they'll be happy with a smaller annual yield than 25%. He's already given back far more than they received at the IPO, so honesty isn't in question at this point, and neither is competence.

And all this is assuming AM just does what it's doing now but gets better at it. I'm sure if Friedcat comes up against a wall where there's just no way to make much more money out of mining hardware, he'll just pull something else out of the hat.

Oh, and more than 3600 coins on average are mined a day, because the hashrate is increasing fast, but difficulty adjusts only every 2 weeks.

[blackreplica]

Of course in any analysis such as this it comes down to the underlying assumptions.

If AM maintains a higher than 20% share of total hashrate, or sells more hardware than initially thought (and keeps the momentum going), or goes into a new venture, or any combination of those (plus many other possible scenarios) then my valuation will no longer be accurate.

My only concern if it would be prudent to price these factors in, at this stage when it hasn't been demonstrated that there is a reasonably certainty of any of those things actually happening.

I feel that on reasonable, conservative estimates, AM is approaching full valuation so potential buyers should just spend a bit more time thinking it through before placing a large order

[velacreations]

we hit 3.51 last night, I can see passing 3.7 before dividend day!

hmmm, I was right, once again.  I guess I need to change this prediction.

4 btc by Weds, folks.

DAMN!  Ok, will we hit 4.5?  I am betting yes.

How high will this go before dividends?  5 btc?

[CMMPro]

Well, with so far nothing but good news and based on the next div being good I can see it above 5.

I can't see any reason to sell, can you?
I'm not going to shit my pants and jump out just because it went up quickly...it may slip back a bit between now and div day but it always does.  

Too much good news pending and long positioned owners for it to drop significantly in the near future.  

It would take an atom bomb of bad news to turn it into an AMC type disaster...

[nubbins]

Well, with so far nothing but good news and based on the next div being good I can see it above 5.

I can't see any reason to sell, can you?
I'm not going to shit my pants and jump out just because it went up quickly...it may slip back a bit between now and div day but it always does.  

Too much good news pending and long positioned owners for it to drop significantly in the near future.  

It would take an atom bomb of bad news to turn it into an AMC type disaster...

Jump out, probably not. Sell, yes. I've tripled my investment in under 2 months.

The worst that happens is you lock in a fat profit. Just make sure to keep some, in case things get stay crazy

[kokojie]

It's going parabolic. AM's value didn't go up 40% in 2 days, so why should the share price be. This is a bubble.

[Franktank]

It's going parabolic. AM's value didn't go up 40% in 2 days, so why should the share price be. This is a bubble.

This

[TsuyokuNaritai]

It's going parabolic. AM's value didn't go up 40% in 2 days, so why should the share price be. This is a bubble.

This

More like 20% in 2 days. So far at least...

It was undervalued. The price is rising to closer reflect the value.

[velacreations]

News of the production of 1000 TH/s (competition killer), the expected higher dividend this week, and the introduction of a lot of new money from China is what is driving this price up.

The value of AM depends a lot on the dividends.  If they go back to the realm of .03-.04, the share price would go up considerably.  Personally, I think 30% is an appropriate rate for the amount of risk/etc, because there are other options for investing BTC below 30% that may be safer.

At a .02 btc dividend (1.04 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 3.5 btc
At a .03 btc dividend (1.56 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 5.2 btc
At a .04 btc dividend (2.08 /yr), and 30% APR, share price is 6.9 btc

I expect stabilization around 5 btc and .03 btc/week for the next few weeks.

[romerun]

got another jaw drop after woke up. 4.2  

Ok, I will do the heavy math for you
21.000.000 btc - 11.000.000 btc = 10 more millions to mine. (total coins minus already mined coins).
10.000.000 btc / 400.000 pcs  = 25 BTC per share (if we mine 100% of it).

So, number of coins yet to be mined per share is:
2.5 btc if we maintain 10%
6.25 btc if we maintain 25%
12.50 btc if we hit 50%
25 btc if we somehow hit 100%

+ profit from hardware and technology
+ transaction fees
+ namecoin sales

I also believe that data center with cheap power will be worth something eventually.

at this price, AM has to maintain only 16.8% which already exceeded, not counting other incomes. Reasonable price, a bit undervalue, I guess.

[101111]

It was undervalued. The price is rising to closer reflect the value.

+1

[Eric Muyser]

It was undervalued. The price is rising to closer reflect the value.

+1

+2

[runam0k]

It was undervalued. The price is rising to closer reflect the value.

+1

+2

+3BTC

[stslimited]

It was undervalued. The price is rising to closer reflect the value.

+1

+2

+3BTC

until somebody sells.

although so far its seemed like people have tolerated selling