What did you think can be the lowest price of bitcoin in 2021 from June to December. The price of bitcoin has been within $30,000 and $35,000 for long, if the price go beyond $35,000, it is not still passing $40,000. Now that the price is always very close to $30000, I am think it is possible for the price of bitcoin to go below $30000. Is it possible for the price of bitcoin to decrease beyond this level?
Who cares? I don't care about the price in 2021 or 2022 or 2023 or 2024 even 2025 but in 2026 the wife will be 70 I will be 69 and driving a 160 miles round trip to work on the mine maintenance will be pretty old. So It better be 200k by 2026. I would be looking to retire by then. |
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But, that aside, it makes no sense for bitcoin price to grow 50% year while the difficulty to double within the same period and this continuously over a long period of time
It does make sense, it makes sense for the price to go down 50% and difficulty to double, the difficulty will only go up as it has done for a decade, ignoring the china ban and what happened in the past a few weeks, you can easily look at the difficulty chart and see that it only goes up, it does cool down once in a while but noting like the price does. on top of my head would be the 2017 peak, diff was 1.6 and price was 19.5k, a year later price was at 3.3k and difficulty was approaching 6T, that is -83% decline in price vs 275% gain for difficulty, you might think that was me cherry-picking periods, but if you spread those periods across the years, OP's projections won't sound as crazy as you may think. I do agree with the bolded part you mention, but it isn't a direct coloration, you can't assume that if price doesn't go up so won't the difficulty, this theory has been proven to be wrong over the past decade, we have seen difficulty go up right after the halving and after major declines in price this is because the mining profitability has not gotten to it's max. Think of miners as fishers who go to the lake to fish, you can't assume that because the number of fish is going down, less fishers will come to the lake, because for one you don't know how much fish will keep every fisher happy, and two, just because it costs you too much to get to the lake and you bought an expensive fishing rod so everyone is in the same boat, yes to you and to some other people if you can't bring home 10kg of fish a day you rather sit at home, to others, they will happy with a small fish once a week. The same goes for mining, many people have access to free power or super cheap power sources, those can just keep adding inefficient cheap gears to infinity, they will squeeze every bit of the profit and cause the difficulty to go up regardless of the price. You should also not forget the fact that not every miner is going to profit, many people mine at a loss because they don't know what they are doing, if every miner was a smart person who does the math, the difficulty wouldn't be going up as it does, but remember that many people paid 15k for an S19 pro, they will most likely lose money in the long run but they will keep the difficulty up, and once those go broke other losers will join along and cause the difficulty to go up, and this is where the confusion comes in, assuming that all miners are making profit leads you to the idea that " if profits aren't great, the difficulty will go down or at least not go up", but that isn't the case, sadly. I personally know a few folks who mine at a loss as I type, their thesis is that bitcoin will go up in price so they will just hodl the mined bitcoin and sell it when it hits 100k or 200k or whatever everyone's target is, I am sure we all know a person or two that does that. One thing to mention is that price decline or price not going up does slow down the difficulty growth, but it does not stop it, on the other hand, the larger the difficulty is the harder for it to go up, and this has been my theory forever, it's why in our past predictions I have always mentioned that doubling the hashrate by year-end was not possible even if the China ban didn't occur, sometimes prices go up way to fast, the difficulty can't keep up with it, it's a simple fact, but in the long run, the difficulty will go up and price won't go up. I should also mention that the increase in price will also slow down, "diminishing returns" is real, the evidence is all over the chart, those who think bitcoin will go above 100k and will stay above it forever or even for a few months will be very disappointed. Maybe maybe not. A lot depends on the un crack ability of wallets. And if 'lost' coins are in the millions. A simple rule to free lost coins is. 40 years of zero withdrawls from and address means coins go on forfeit list. At year 50 they go back to rewards. You have time to move them to a fresh address. If you do not by by. This keeps us at 21 mill max but allows a rewards refresh for miners. We are in year 12 but I do expect to hear this idea more and more and more as rewards shrink and stale addresses grow. |
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I found email the answer is no. Let me try to explain what happens to me. The email account you sent to is 23 years old. It gets 250 emails a day on a slow day. If I go back just to July 10 it is 27 pages back. So you sent it on the 11th> I read it and did not want to answer it yet. I think the price for the gear is too high. I do not like the seller. I did a few deals with him they always have a glitch. They work out but always with an issue or a scare. https://t.me/minerexpertsales/1186I prefer working directly with gracezhou1993 |
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Ok, July 2019 Difficulty 8T, price 11k January 2021 Difficulty 18T, price 30k. Growth in difficulty 225%, growth in price 300% July 2019 Difficulty 8T, price 11k July 2021 Difficulty 15T, price 32k Growth in difficulty 90%, growth in price 300% January 2019 Difficulty 5T, price 3k January 2021 Difficulty 18T, price 30k. Growth in difficulty 350%, growth in price 1000%. So again, when did the difficulty growth outpaced the price 100% to 50%? try December 2017 price 19.9k diff 1.87 t October 2018 price 6.4k diff 7.45 t So the diff went way up and the price dropped way down. |
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Honestly, I don't think what he is doing is necessarily a bad thing, but almost most of his posts are "defending the GPLv3 license", you would expect from someone who does that to actually fight against all parties that don't distribute the source code and that includes Bitmain and the other major manufacturers, if he won't do that, he should at least not bug every thread with these comments about the license which he himself isn't honoring by allowing the stock firmware to use his pool. Well, he is doing all that he can. He and -ck are not about to give cgminer to the FSF who are the only ones with the resources to go after violators. All he can do is 'shame' them. In the past already has made mention in their respective support threads of Bitmain, Inno, MicroBt and others violating the license but that is beating a dead horse especially since the other major developer (-ck) could care less. Canaan has been the one exception in that they DO (or least, did) publish their modified source code. That leaves nagging programmers who should know better and support the ideals of what Open Source is supposed to stand for. How would they feel if someone decompiled their code and then proceeded to make money off of it? Pretty safe bet that said programmers would be highly miffed... I don't know the Real back story as to why he simply did not decide to sue bitmain over this. Seems to me there would be enough money to interest some lawyers in some countries. I do seem to think he said something about an agreement with bitmain of some kind. That is why he allows bitmain miners on the pool. So If my crappy 64 year memory is correct then he would be okay in complaining about someone using bitmain bgminer without proper paperwork. It is why I use braiins for aftermarket. As I think it is its own code. |
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As a rule: If the a payment method balance can be topped up using a credit card or a bank accont, then you shouldn't use it, not when dealing with BTC anyway.
I know your post is a bit old, but I'll reply to it anyway since I'm here. What you said is true in the vast majority of cases, but there are members here who can be trusted with PayPal and other reversible payment methods--you just have to know who's trusted (and that's the hard part). For example, I've done a deal with you in the past if I'm not mistaken, and it's way past the chargeback time frame at this point. Thanks I was really going to do it but you warned me and save me thanks for your valuable information
If you're new here, you definitely shouldn't be doing PayPal deals, even if you can find someone to trade with you. Figure out who's trusted and who's not, and avoid dealing with other newbies if they're offering PayPal in exchange for bitcoin. That's a great way to get scammed. If PayPal starts letting you buy and sell bitcoin that you can deposit and withdraw, all of this should be a moot point (at least for PayPal; other reversible methods will remain risky). If someone like me with hundreds of good trust wants to pay in PayPal most likely you will be fine. But new people of people gone for years that just show up most likely you will have an issue. |
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I have an update: I opened a ticket in bitmain site, and they recommended to flash the SD card. so I flashed the SD card to recover the control board. Since then, not only that the second hashboard is still offline, now the other 2 hashboards that used to work, are in abnormal state and don't work at all... would someone know what to do regarding this issue?   In addition to that, I opened the lid, and it looked like all the cables and wires were tight. I did try to switch the wires, and now boards 2 and 3 are online, and board 1 is offline. so I guess that's good news.... right? I hope the the problem is with the wires (or PSU) but not the hashboards. But anyway, the 2 boards that are online are in abnormal state, so the miner isn't hashing .... Does anybody know how to get these type of wires?  I'd appreciate it if someone could tell me additional things I could try. Thanks Shai Email them and say now it is fully bricked. You want a replacement. |
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No body really knows.
best answer is maybe.
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Ive got another (maybe outlandish) question.
Can you run (is it efficient enough) your L3+ with a 220PSU, then use a transformer to convert to 110 for the wall hookup. I ask this because it might not be possible to add 220 where I'm at.
waste of money. the units only pull 700-900 watts. bitmain apw3++ can run these on 120 watts. the transformer that will work costs a lot do not do it. |
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Anyone ever deal with Goldshell?
This is the btc section it should be in altcoin section. I have no purchases with goldshell so I do not know how good they are. |
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philipma1957
I have sent you an email. Please let me know here if you didn't get it. Thanks.
was at the farm just got back. been very busy due to car accident. car was totaled had to get a replacement. only money and time no one hurt. |
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Good morning wo.
So my buddies at Apple finally sold enough iPhones to buy some btc . Nice
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Okay antivaxer badecker is a democratic supporter trying to trick republicans into not vaxing thus killing off republicans 19 to 1 over democrats.
Once the clever plot succeeds with variations e ,f, g ,h ,i, k
millions of antivaxing republicans will be dead and buried.
I have the inside scoop on the democrats and lefty liberals and they are winning the battle of trickery to slay and waste republicans.
at the moment 90% of democrats are vaxed and only 50% of republicans.
the plot thickens with many other cleverly disguised democrats acting as if antivaxing is the way to go.
Just watch the replies to this post denying they are doing this.
I feel sorry for my fellow republicans being trick fucked and even though I fear leftist reprisals I have decided to show and expose the clever plot they are doing.
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at richy-t buddy keeps sliding down the slot of 32-34k and it is just about as boring as me talking about it.
but wtf i actually dont mind the numbers.
In several of your recent posts of the past months, your interpretation of buddy has not exactly been very deep.. .but I suppose it's all relative in the whole scheme of things... .. especially if you are claiming to serve as a blocker..  Who am I to say?  Buddy is going to be passing me up in quantity of posts in the next couple of days.. we ONLY have a 23 post spread currently, as I type. I am at 23,105 posts and buddy is at 23,082 posts, and it seems best for me to recognize defeat and proclaim that my lead was fun while it lasted.. (for less than 6 months, I believe)... I might post a lot, but surely I cannot keep up with deeeee when active buddy. Buddy has a ways to catch up to you Phillip... maybe a few years.. perhaps? perhaps? I am developing a love hate relationship with buddy. He's boring He's persistent But the numbers he keeps hitting really work well for me. So while I would love for him to go away I don't want my mining position to suffer if he really is holding up the 32-34k slot. Can we think of a name for difficulty charts How about "diff dick" He keeps the diff going down and down again. https://diff.cryptothis.com/... Current Pace: 91.6737% (1300 / 1418.07 expected, 118.07 behind) ... Next Difficulty: between 13175558203580 and 13314407155894 Next Difficulty Change: between -8.2675% and -7.3008% Previous Retarget: July 3, 2021 at 2:25 AM (-27.9427%) ... Please Donate Bitcoin less boring at -8% @nohomo |
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Curious as to why you opted for MyNode as opposed to something like the RaspiBlitz or Umbrel?  Asking because I've sort of been on a bit of a mission to try them all... and was considering trying the MyNode setup (the free community edition tho) Seems that spending $100 on something that is using a lot of open-source software that is freely available and/or included in other packages like RaspiBlitz/Umbrel is unnecessary. I can certainly understand that someone might want to go with the premium package purely for the support option, so they don't have to rely on forums/telegram groups etc... but charging to get "free" features (btcpay server, Spectr, LNBits etc) from the other systems seems excessive.  ... I am up to block 402000 this download will be under 3 days maybe 2 .
Do you not have another node you could have copied the blockchain/chainstate/indexes from? or were you wanting to see what the full IBD time would be like? In my testing with RaspiBlitz/Umbrel... copying the chain from another node cuts the initial setup time down to hours rather than days. Went slow on purpose as I want to see the time it takes for 8gb no tor vs 4gb tor. I also paid for software to get setup with less effort. I will be doing another companies. forgot name. I will also do it with free software but I have so much real stuff happening that will take a while. I will end up with at least 4 nodes for LN. I will also compare to the miner/node sold here on bit coin talk I own that one. I have it running a node but no wallets yet. So it will be a long set of reviews and info by the time I am done. |
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HI,
Any mining pools with the highest rewards by july 2021?
Thanks
... So a pool that makes 1 block a day with bad luck could make a block in 10 days. I saw a pool have back to back 99% cdf which is insane bad luck. about 10000 to one shot. If you pick a pplns pool that makes 1 block a day and it does that it will make 2 blocks in 20 days vs the 18 it should make. ... Reminder, however, that variance does NOT mean loss, it literally means up and down. Gain and LossSo as long as the PPLNS pool finds regular blocks, the variance over time should even out quickly. So for a pool that expects one block per day, yes you will, very rarely, average 1 in 22026.5 blocks, get times when the pool will take 10 or more days to find a block. Or, average 1 in 148.4 blocks, get times when the pool will take 5 or more days to find a block. But the reverse is also true, the pool will, average 1 in 1.59 blocks, take less than a day also, that will, over time, average out to close to one block a day, with the longer blocks. And of most importance, this doesn't mean you will always be behind. The pool will have times, both when you will be ahead, and times when you will be behind. Of course, there is no factor involved in mining that will correct the luck from 'good to even' or from 'bad to even' but over time it is expected to average out close to one block per 100% The main difference in fees between PPS and PPLNS is that a PPS pool is required to charge higher fees. Of course, this doesn't mean that all PPLNS pools charge lower fees. And ... the most relevant case of this is Antpoo who's PPLNS fees are very high. Info about expected pool block finding statistics: https://kano.is/index.php?k=poissonAntpool is wicked bad with fees. If you have decent hash say 1000 ph. You can do 80% viabtc and 20% kano.is Or some other smaller pool. If 80-20 is hard do 90-10 I do 1500 to 20 with viabtc 1500 and mmpool 20 you can get hot with the higher variance pools. This is much how my wife and I invest. 75-80% in very safe bonds 20-25% in mining btc,ltc/doge,eth. |
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at richy-t buddy keeps sliding down the slot of 32-34k and it is just about as boring as me talking about it.
but wtf i actually dont mind the numbers.
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buddy at the low side of the slot. But sliding away to the beat of me typing on my keyboard.
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HI,
Any mining pools with the highest rewards by july 2021?
Thanks
Yeah this is a naive question. You want pools that pay and don't steal. You want to measure the variance issue. What is that. In the short run a pplns pool payout will have variance. In theory in the long run it won't be much. So a pool that makes 1 block a day with bad luck could make a block in 10 days. I saw a pool have back to back 99% cdf which is insane bad luck. about 10000 to one shot. If you pick a pplns pool that makes 1 block a day and it does that it will make 2 blocks in 20 days vs the 18 it should make. Now on the other hand a pool like viabtc.com uses pps+ and you get a certain number every day based on your hash rate. I have 1000th at viabtc it is playing me 1000 x 0.00000895 = 0.00895 every day like clock work. compared to the other pool I never have bad luck. but on the average my pay out is a bit less. Unless the variance driven pool has shit luck month after month. I do not want to deal with variance so I mine at viabtc.com I do point 20th at mmpool.org if I win a block there I will make some nice money but It has been years since I hit one there. |
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