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9241  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: May 22, 2018, 06:24:13 PM
Your link got mashed I think, just screencap it to imgur

USD will make a final moon shot and die.

Bitcoin is the female mantis who'll eat the male mantis after sex. USD will fuck bitcoin (and everything else) for the last time. Stocks, crypto, gold, real estate... everything will just die against the USD and that'll collapse the economy.

Only after that, either gold or btc (btc most likely since gold isnt as mobile) or both will eat the fucking male mantis.

USD already did the moon shot in 2008.   The events there were probably significant in the amount it required in order to spike USD in that way.    The demand for USD was massive and it came from across the world, the surprise in market decline was genuine.

Right now would people be as surprised and rushing to buy USD debt.  We already did that, the biggest holder remains Federal reserve from all their QE programs.    Its not just USA either, the ECB is still throwing the dice on the table for its QE gamble.  I'll post some source on that to go over because Im lost how lead ballons float tbh

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Jim Grant as mentioned in the Big short, on Euro Junk bonds yielding less then US treasury debt, etc
Very bearish, one of the four horsemen calling a cyclical bear market to bonds which has boomed since early 80's and 15% rates.

https://youtu.be/66UsX-zzVbA?t=2328


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Wall Street does, their lies and the games they play. Not only does Average Joe not want to buy those expensive shares this time around, he's hip to their game,
I dont think the average Joe has money to place in the first place, real wages have fallen in value overall.  The value is coming from his pension scheme and that investment is being done without personal judgement of the beneficiary [how the little guy always loses].
  The largest holder of US treasury debt is recorded as pension funds operated by government at various levels, I think thats correct hence why some think its a safe situation and no sell off or rate spike is possible.
9242  Economy / Economics / Re: help a newbie understand a loss please on: May 22, 2018, 06:12:33 PM
Sounds serious and hard to advise without specific knowledge of the situation.    A private individual can write down losses against their other profits within just one single financial year.   So thats April 2018 to April 2019 I think.

This is the economics section and this sounds like an alt coin question, find the ANN thread for the coin you are holding.  Use google
9243  Economy / Economics / Re: What happens when there is NO electricity? How does one trade with BTC? on: May 22, 2018, 06:09:59 PM
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We hear in the news that many people in countries that have currency issues are starting to trade in BTC - for example, Venezula.

My friend asked me what about in regions where they lose electricity, how would they trade with BTC?

For example Puerto Rico is right now devastated by the hurricane, and many parts of its region don't have electricity.  A lot of people need to buy food and even fresh water.

Like finance, not all power has to be centralised and provided in a fixed way.    So really all these bad situations with failure of infrastructure could be solved to a small extent with solar panels.     Long term this kind of diversity is probably important and I think this is known and recognised by quite a few across the world, reliance on just one source of power is a weakness.


Those countries mentioned have good sunlight so they have a possibility to power small efficient circuits.  Thats probably your best answer, Bitcoin hopefully also becomes an efficient enterprise and able to operate in this way.
9244  Economy / Economics / Re: New York City Launches First Blockchain Initiatives on: May 22, 2018, 06:00:21 PM
Isn't bitcoin more of a Silicon Valley darling. Why not have the conference at the West coast rather than New York.



NYC is more centrally located in a global point of view, travel wise I guess.   I dont think Bitcoin is a darling of anywhere, its resilience comes from being useful globally not tied to the politics and governmental department checklists of any place no matter how important they value themselves.
I hope it always stays that independent and reliable for global citizens who just want to be free and recognise capitalism not central banking with all its failures.

They might think all this red tape and paperwork increases safety, perhaps for them it does but it also chains the fates of those crypto enterprises to a sinking ship.   Any good setup should be portable and able to operate in every jurisdiction.  If NYC wants to setup these fences and hurdles and thinks its useful they'll have to justify it, I hope they dont intend to try and capture market participants within its boundaries.    Growth globally will be higher then NYC by itself can raise I think
9245  Economy / Economics / Re: Banks offering only 1.3% interest rates for Savings Account on: May 22, 2018, 05:54:01 PM
^^ Banks are not returning interest by charity.  The deposit is a liability and they return some part of their profits because these people help fund their balance sheet.

Because we have central banking this effect is diluted to the point it has become lost.   Central banks lend to the banks instead and at a cheap price with newly printed money, the customer who deposits is devalued now.


I think some banks are fooling us.. 1.3% MONTHLY is not bad, but ANNUALLY? Are they serious?!
Bitcoin is far better than banks. If you invest in bitcoin,  you can earn 100% by a month. If they don't change their annual interest , banks might be gone after 50 years because of bitcoin.
Not just 1.3% but also consider inflation.  The future money you receive as interest payment is now worth less then the start of the year because of inflation.
If we include this effect the return is quite often negative, the money lost value.     I agree this makes Bitcoin more popular, its a massive effect overall.  Weak currency or loose money
9246  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Invest on NEO ? on: May 22, 2018, 05:40:17 PM
Comparison and contrast over the different crypto standards will raise accuracy to your judgement.   I do think thats a good idea to not consider NEO purely by itself, I hope it can win a case for investment on its own merits and advantages vs alternatives.

Here is a table I just saw posted in another thread, original source is Chinese central government.  I did think China was against almost all crypto because they operate capital controls on their currency, this favours government over citizens.  However I might be wrong, its possible Chinese wants growth and is more involved then I thought.  If NEO is connected to China its best to check this detail

9247  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Is ethereum surpasses bitcoin on: May 22, 2018, 05:29:33 PM
Governments dont determine success, they tax it.   Its possible a government may try and encourage or allow for successful business in some areas or oppose it but I dont see China as determining if ETH or BTC is the best direction.
If Chinese government is clever it will guess or judge correctly where investment could be best placed, they are not deciders of the fate of any standard.  That would be copying the thinking of a centralised government when crypto thrives on decentralisation
9248  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Is it normal to wait for 6 months for a bounty reward? on: May 22, 2018, 05:01:19 PM
this is by no means normal. if then it should really be an exception and can be supported by good reasons.

I've never had a case like this before  Shocked

A normal bounty is paid at the time of the ICO closing because publicity usually centres around that time frame.  Also the company itself receives funding at that point and so can distribute value either in tokens or BTC, ETH

Ive only had one campaign not pay out and the reasoning given was KYC.   They said it was not legal to pay someone who didnt register details with them.  I have given my personal details but they refuse to accept saying I cant qualify afterwards.
I think KYC can not operate with a time limit in this way and I continue to pursue the debt.    Any normal exchange I register at with KYC does not disappear with my account holdings on the basis I was not able to present documents in 2 weeks.   I hope to start a petition to make sure its acknowledged that KYC and bounty operation does not allow profiteering or exploitation of the indivuals
9249  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: 46% of last year's ICOs have failed already on: May 22, 2018, 04:48:28 PM
Well, there are some bad tendencies for ICOs for sure. I regularly encounter projects, which collected only 20-50% of the planned sum. However, that's still a decent amount of money.
Sometimes raising less money is actually going to help future value.  So long as the company has the funds to continue development and the actual original business idea is valid then success is possible a long time even years after.
I think the term for startups used would be cash burn rate.   It was familar language when Dot Com era of tech boom was most active and many ideas sprung up but never managed to get off the ground because they lacked the basic market revenue and profit income to continue as an operation with staff for development.

It does also depend on the background market, ETH itself has fallen alongside BTC withdrawing from its peak.   Again I think this is a normal event, a predictable wave in the ocean which every startup must traverse in order to reach its destination.

Some ICO will sink, they were not sea worthy and some are unlucky on timing of the weather in the market overall but that is a normal risk.   High growth has this dynamic I think, I tried to pick my holdings well on the basis of these factors
9250  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Speculation (Altcoins) / Re: Invest on NEO ? on: May 22, 2018, 04:41:12 PM
I would consider the case for investment for and against many times before you actually buy.  Also its reasonable to spread a buy in over a year, its hard to know when exactly is the best time and this method distributes risk.

Heres a chart I saw comparing distribution and 'mining' effects vs total supply of coins.    This relates to a coin development I think


https://i.imgur.com/aMGBJpz.png
9251  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Do you sell right away or wait? on: May 22, 2018, 04:34:41 PM
I have definitely noticed a dip in value on many ICO tokens after they list on an exchange. Liquidity can also mean a quick sand effect for the price where sellers exceed buyers at that moment and so price sinks.

If you believe in a project, this is the time to accumulate tokens for that ICO.   The market dynamic of a weakened price is not the tail that wags the dog, the business will continue especially if the ICO was a success and the project is funded for development.   Uncertainty is part of investment, judging risk is work done to realise profit.   

9252  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Crypro will make people smarter? on: May 22, 2018, 04:31:10 PM
I love all these mispelt thread titles.  I wonder if its on purpose trying to be cute perhaps or for good luck with reference to HODL ?

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Crypto currency will make the next generation of people smarter.


No Im going to be pessimistic here.     People are more technology smart now then when I grew up in decades past, this much is true.  Its like learning a language, young people take on their surroundings and technology is part of this modern world.

However I will argue its the other way round, Crypto needs to make itself as easy to use as possible. To be straight forward, the modern version of a remote control.  I shouldn't need a good physics background with knowledge of the infrared spectrum in order to operate a remote control device.

Its quite simple I press button I get the result I want fast and without effort.  Crypto does require simplicity for success, I will always repeat this because its missed by those most able.   Crypto can never afford to be elitist imo, my grandma after 10 whiskeys needs to be able to use it  Grin
9253  Alternate cryptocurrencies / Altcoin Discussion / Re: Do you sell right away or wait? on: May 22, 2018, 04:16:02 PM
^^ Its arguable its best to have a bad memory and just forget at least some percentage of the ICO holding tokens you have.   People are way too impatent, like the old saying a watched kettle never boils.

Not only does it not boil but it can never profit the person who sells every token they had because the company didnt immediately jump higher in just a few months.   A normal business cycle is about 6 years, depending on the business it could take this long for an idea to come to full valuation or even a starting value.     Speculative value tries to guess the final figure but its always guessing and very variable, the failure of a higher speculative value does not also mean the underlying base business will not grow.  I think sometimes people lose track of the two being separate.

Of course people who sell too early pass the value to those who 'save and forget'   Thats how it goes in the market
9254  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Best County for Crypto Startups? on: May 22, 2018, 04:09:15 PM
Isnt there a US state which allows payment of taxes in Bitcoin, think I read that.   Its possible the OP question is correct in asking best county Cheesy



As far as countries, Puerto Rico is a US territory not US state and currently it allows a US citizen to reside there and not be liable to federal income taxes.   Thats all formalised and possible for people to move there, it could help a small startup to do better.
Otherwise I think cheap power would help with mining, generally good infrastructure and internet access would be required.  It varies largely on the business type to the startup.
9255  Bitcoin / Legal / Re: Which country to Immigrate for making fortune in crypto currency on: May 22, 2018, 04:03:18 PM
Tokyo is just one part of Japan and I think its cheaper then London now not sure.    Japan overall has a declining population and likely they need growth in their working population for continued success.   In theory it shouldnt be a bad place to locate however I dont believe its easy to learn or to integrate exactly and there is a long history of Japan being isolated.
I only know of one friend who moved there and its mostly because he is married to a Japanese woman which probably makes a massive difference.   Not sure Im clever enough to learn a language like this late in life but my friend teaches English as a job now.  (it takes more then money)

I wouldn't choose any former soviet union country for a place of permanent residency. Many of them, including Belarus, use different alphabet and have their own local currencies. I'd describe most of those currencies as weak and not the best stores of value.

this thread is ridiculous. for 200,000 dollars i probably wouldn't move to a town 10 miles away i didn't like, let alone a 100% alien country that's also backwards and repressive.

there are some real cheapskates out there happy to ruin their life to save a little bit of money.

well there is also Puerto Rico which is US territory not a state and is tax free of federal income taxes for US citizens.  Quite a few from crypto community operate here now apparently

Hello Crypto Currency Experts,

Suppose you make 200k USD proft, but your country does not allow you to withdraw money from crypto exchange to bank.

So you have only option to take "permanent residence/citizenship" of another country, which is crypto-currency and immigration friendly.


The major point to realise here is the profits you have already occured.  Its possible the taxman will not recognise you moving after the fact.    Going forward you would not pay taxes on your gains after moving to the tax free area but to realise profits from an old holding of Bitcoin, this might still be liable.    Speak to a professional accountant is probably best
9256  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Why gambling is portrayed negatively almost everywhere? on: May 22, 2018, 03:53:33 PM
Thats BS, it doesnt have to lead to certain addiction.  The important thing is to vary habits not continually repeat.   So anything can become a negative, like drinking can be fine with a meal or can lead to addiction.  Even plain food by itself can become unhealthy if people fail to moderate themselves.    Its not just gambling, any part of life can overly negative if left un-adjusted.

But whatever people say, this is wrong so it is wrong. No one can make this better by saying anything about it. We all know these gamblers are just earning money that is virtual. They even don’t know how is winning their money. They spend everything in gambling and at the end of day, they just become zero. They never win permanently. Their greed becomes so strong that never let them grow.

This seems to be stating absolutes as a certainty.   It is possible to retain some earnings and only gamble part of the winnings.   Some do gain from a method of careful controlled risk and formal gameplay.   Most of us arent that disciplined and we do not profit, I also think some manage to pull it off.  
9257  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: Online Gambling Versus Traditional Gambling on: May 22, 2018, 03:48:45 PM
Online gambling is much better because you literally can do it at any time, even while sitting on the toilet. You don't have to leave home, care for your outfit or looks. You can do it in pyjamas while eating popcorn and the result will be the same as in a real casino.

Good is a variable here because all those positives you state could also lead to bad habits.   Having an informal approach to a game could lead to simple mistakes which snowball into unnecessary losses.

I remember watching one program where a mentor brought in candidates for Poker he thought had potential to hit the big time.  A large part of his approach was to formalise their work ethic to winning games, so he literally asked them to come in every day in a suit or just smartly dressed and try to form a solid 9-5 thinking to their game.
   I doubt he kept them absolutely to just one method but sticking to your own rules and having to enter and leave the building to gamble also could be stated as a positive imo and in terms of likely success overall
9258  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: To quit gambling is to quit yourself on: May 22, 2018, 03:44:07 PM
To take risks is normal, so I get your analogy to stop gambling is to stop breathing.  However the money element doesnt have to be there for that person to continue on with a healthier personality and lifestyle.  They will happier overall to avoid the money risk element of gambling.

This is my basic advice, a gambler who wants to remove or reduce this part of their life should probably increase their involvement in sports or physical activities where they can replace gambling with an adrenaline and natural high from more active challenges.  Exercise in itself produces endorphins and that produces a better feeling then continually gambling.    Even from a money point of view, its never best to chase losses as you lose control and will not play your best game so profit is unlikely.
    Change is good! Smiley
9259  Economy / Economics / Re: You're not wealthy yet, so you're not allowed to be wealthy on: May 22, 2018, 03:21:11 PM
^^ There are good tales going back to ancient greek civilisation about the elements that create wealth.   All it takes in terms of a farmers economy is to predict failed harvests and invest in stock that will be worth more later in the autumn then it is now.    There can also be an excess harvest and that stock earlier will not be worth more later.     Good judgement has to come into play for wealth to be accumulated, it cant ever be easy.

I do think people confuse good luck with genuine long term wealth, work and savings.
Investment is  a gambling

Investment has risk and gambling has risk but I would not say they always equate.   Investment has a purpose of storing value with the idea of greater value later.  That idea can be wrong and the value lost or reduced.

Capitalism is about opportunity not any guarantee, just like the American dream.  It was supposed to be about entitlements, there are basic rights but to be rich was not one of them.  It cannot work that way as money really only comes from productivity. and efficiency gains to society overall
9260  Economy / Economics / Re: A government can create a cryptocurrency ? on: May 22, 2018, 02:45:58 PM
If the government of my country decides to hold an ICO, then I will participate in the bounty company of this new promising project.

Thats probably the smartest thing for the young especially to do.  Labour is the basic resource which drives any capitalist economy, the smallest measure of time by the hour is what determines a large part of worth and exchangeable value.

Venezuela is trying to setup a cryptocurrency for those that dont know.  However my government and many in the west have sanctions against this country and I cannot really participate.   Effectively the government is trying to bypass Dollar controls and sanctions by using access to crypto to create a market especially based around major buyers for oil.  I dont know it'll work but its an interesting project and makes 2018 a very significant year for crypto  with this experiment being the most bold and far reaching attempt to monetise via only online digital tokens.
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