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We must not forget free electricity for the average college geek miner.
And then who doesn't like the idea of printing up money?
Especially when you don't have to dig.
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One case that can be made though is that it's a cyclical alternation between investment in BTC and investment in mining hardware as the one gets unprofitable and the other more attractive. But I'm not sure, most of the time, both are attractive at the same time and unattractive at the same time.
Here is a great past analysis of it that begun in early May 2011. the only real dip in hashrate that I witnessed was for a brief few months from about August to November 2011. Otherwise it's been steadily if not parabolically increasing. There was another dip beginning December 2012 following a period of sideways. Two consecutive difficulty decreases, one increase and another decrease that ended up the bottom. It's not purely profit driven. Sure, some are more inclined to mine at a loss etc., but the upwards motion is first technology and second price driven. The cyclical alternation is probably the best explanation as there are no absolutes when talking about anything related to prices. |
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Since being in bitcoin since January of 2011, the only real dip in hashrate that I witnessed was for a brief few months from about August to November 2011. Otherwise it's been steadily if not parabolically increasing.
My explanation to fit my perceived notion and experience as a miner of this is that there is literally a rush to secure as many bitcoins in hand as fast as possible in anticipation of a price rise and before the asymptotic decrease in rewards kicks in. This is all irrespective of the price.
Interesting. If they want bitcoins, why wouldn't they just buy, instead of mining? Also there is a community aspect to bitcoin mining that does not exist for gold. It's not purely profit driven.
Ok. Does that give the hashrate any way to influence the price? That actually allows me to highlight another reason why miners mine. For enjoyment. They're geeks after all and this is what they do. Hashrate influences the price by making speculators more confident that their money won't disappear from a 51%attack. |
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Since being in bitcoin since January of 2011, the only real dip in hashrate that I witnessed was for a brief few months from about August to November 2011. Otherwise it's been steadily if not parabolically increasing.
My explanation to fit my perceived notion and experience as a miner of this is that there is literally a rush to secure as many bitcoins in hand as fast as possible in anticipation of a price rise and before the asymptotic decrease in rewards kicks in. This is all irrespective of the price.
Also there is a community aspect to bitcoin mining that does not exist for gold. It's not purely profit driven.
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So, if you are right, then you expect hashrate to imminently begin to go sideways for a couple of months?
I expect it to follow the same pattern as the price: to peak and slowly diminish after that. Last price peak in 2012 induced a hashrate increase that lasted for months. Anyone has any data pointing to a reverse relationship, where hashrate would be driving price? Well then you're gonna have some explaining to do in regards to timing because we are not going to peak and slowly diminish any time soon as Avalon batch 2 will be delivered in 1-3 days followed by batch 3 and more asicminers. I also disagree with your visual interpretation of price always leading. If you really zoom in and look carefully I could make the opposite argument that hashrate leads. It's just that the price spikes are so violent in comparison that it looks like they're leading. Your gold mining analogy is also off as gold miners do not have a philosophical motivation to help or secure a network as do bitcoin miners. |
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So, if you are right, then you expect hashrate to imminently begin to go sideways for a couple of months?
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questions:
1. to upgrade from 0.8.1 to 0.8.2 are the commands simply "sudo apt-get update" followed by "sudo apt-get upgrade"?
2. how do i check bitcoind version # from the command line?
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OMG they answered my ticket within 5 minutes and my order (Feb 3) is now appearing in the store.
Almost the most beautiful day of my life...
and is shipping in 1-3 days. I said before: I'll address shipping issues first, get production flowing, then I'll address tickets and ship units. there is literally no reason to do this before the first two is ready n set. finally! |
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i'm confused with this newest update.
under what circumstances are we supposed to open a support ticket other than the obvious address change?
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Ummm, the facts are no-one can know the facts about these programs because they have placed themselves "legally" above scrutiny. The tech giants are legally bound to lie about any involvement so you cannot trust them and the secret court rulings on who does what are ... well secrets. The web of deceit is deep and tangled ... believe whatever 'facts' you like I guess. NSA is not above telling lies  We do know that Snowden at least lied about himself. That should say a lot about the rest of it. Does the NSA always tell the truth? If, as you say in your post, that Snowden lied, that illustrates the fact that NSA/CIA agents lie and are not to be trusted. He wasn't even an agent. Just a contractor - and only for 3 months. i asked you for some evidence. a link perhaps? |
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Ummm, the facts are no-one can know the facts about these programs because they have placed themselves "legally" above scrutiny. The tech giants are legally bound to lie about any involvement so you cannot trust them and the secret court rulings on who does what are ... well secrets. The web of deceit is deep and tangled ... believe whatever 'facts' you like I guess. NSA is not above telling lies We do know that Snowden at least lied about himself. That should say a lot about the rest of it. where are the facts of this? |
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Oh look, how convenient:
"Missing & Exploited Children" - - - > Bitcoin
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i'd put it at more of a probable probability.
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Snowden violated his employment agreement. He also screwed his life. He made a very bad investment.
according to you. if you see something illegal going on in your workplace, you should report it. that he did. as far as screwing his life, did you listen to what he said? he's comfortable with the difficult decision he's made. he understands that it will irreversibly alter his life, probably for the worse, but sometimes principles are worth fighting for. and as far as an investment, that's the wrong way to look at this. |
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We all knew it .. doesn't make it right. They have been doing their damnedest by lying, denying, obfuscating, changing the laws and secret rulings etc to stay out of court about it. Now they have to face the music for what are criminal actions. They can stick their transactions graphs right up their backsides ... piss off with your snooping, who needs it in a free society? I agree with you. Anyone who has been reading the news has known that the NSA was monitoring transatlantic communication at the nodes of where the cables come into the US. Also, the NSA is not looking at the actual content of our communication. They were merely creating a network graph of who talks to whom. Yes, that IS an intrusion, but they were working on the assumption that if you know who someone's friends are, you know who they are. I am interested in Bitcoin because I want to make money, and because I believe that if there is a form of currency that makes trade between individuals and small companies in different countries easier, the world will benefit. Snowden violated his employment agreement. He also screwed his life. He made a very bad investment. I guess I'm the only one that thinks this guy is a nimrod. He throws away his life, all to tell us the profound news that the US Govt is snooping on our communications. ROFL Anyhow, I'll throw in a bitcoin... a bitcoin to whoever catches the rat.  no, we didn't know it. we've long suspected it, but didn't know it. especially in the ways Snowden described. being able to "intercept" any one of us at any time. you, me, your wife, your accountant, your banker, your local Google rep, etc. plus, he put it the context of blatant disregard and hubris from his bosses at NSA. we've got a problem and it's big. |
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