Shandong - Jilin HC2 -5,5 @1.93 4/10
Two teams that weren't very successful after the break, but Jilin looked sharper all in all and Shandong have some trouble with their personnel.

Nanjing - Xinjiang Halftime HC2 -7.5 @1.86 4/10
The top teams often go full throttle in first half to be able to rest their top players in second half a bit during these busy times and keep them fresh.

Cool, I have sent you 1000 chips:



The tournament is already up for registration (Sunday 5pm UTC). I will send you the password via PM, please note that there is no late registration.

Not sure, if you are familiar with our structure, but you will get at least 10 tickets for an internal lottery with your participation, which will be held after 8 tournaments somewhere in August. So if you don't become a regular player, you should check this thread the latest in August then again to see, if you won something in the lottery. But maybe you like our series afterall and will participate regularly, albeit being busy on PokerStars at the same time when we play

Good luck for Sunday.

Herlichen Glückwunsch Sehr verdient, super Beiträge im gambling Bereich, die ich gerne lese und die nicht nur bla bla sind, wie so vieles dort. Selbst wenn die FJ Kampagne dann wieder endet, solltest du keine Probleme haben, wieder was anderes zu finden

Hehe, of course it is. You always have to exaggerate a bit when discussing football to trigger emotions and discussions

Heidenheim actually have some players in their roster, that did already play in Bundesliga before. Kleindienst played in Bundesliga for Freiburg, Feick for Cottbus, Multhaup for Ingolstadt, Theuerkauf for Braunschweig and there might be more, but it's all small clubs and they weren't impact players there. They do have some talented youngsters like Dorsch whom you mentioned, but also David Otto and yes, we could see them in Bundesliga in the future. All in all their roster is above average for 2. Bundesliga standards, but not more. They are profiting a lot from so many clubs being run poorly (Bochum, St. Pauli, Hannover, Nürnberg), while they themselves are super solid and don't have any pressure from media, fans etc.

If they were to promote, they won't invest big time and will try to stay in Bundesliga with what they have right now; maybe adding an experienced player here and there (like Union did with Gentner, Subotic). Nevertheless, they will relegate after one season again, but I hope they will just stay in 2. Bundesliga where they belong in the end as of now.

Very nice

I will be adding two "Independence Day Weekend Wild Cards" for Sundays tournament. So if any of you lurkers wants to join the next tournament for free, just post your SwC handle in this thread and I will send you the buy-in. There are only two prerequisites: 1) You didn't participate in any of the 17 tournaments yet, i.e. you are complete newbie to our series. 2) You are not a Newbie in this forum. Don't be shy, we are friendly folks, who just like to play some poker and suck each other out from time to time. First come, first serve.

If I fail to give out the two wild cards for this Sunday due to low interest, they will be rolled over to the next tournament on July 12th.

@efialtis
I sent you the 800 chips extra fee for those two wild cards.

Heidenheim is super small club from a 50k town in the middle between Stuttgart, Nürnberg, Munich/Augsburg. Just 15 years ago they were still playing in 6th division and worked their way up from there; promoting to 2. Bundesliga only some years ago. They are a low-profile club doing solid work and having a very good coach. They live by a strong team chemistry and always play very disciplined. None of their players have the quality to play in Bundesliga, let alone in german national team. Some years ago their captain Schnatterer had the quality to play Bundesliga, but he decided to stay in Heidenheim and is a legend there. And I doubt he would have worked in Bundesliga, he is just a Heidenheim guy and would fail at any other team imo, because he wouldn't feel comfortable there.
Having a player from 2. Bundesliga playing in german NT is a very rare event. The last one was Jonas Hector iirc, who stayed at Cologne, when they relegated, but I can't remember another player.

I think it won't be easy for Werder today, because Heidenheim can be a pain the ass to play against. You still have this horrible home record from Werder, but they should be on a high after last weekends miracle. Heidenheim is poor in away games and I expect them to just sit back today and being happy with a 0-0 (or any scoring draw as well). In the end Werder should win this today all things considered, but I can't imagine it being a big win, something like 1-0/2-0/2-1 seems likely.

Bei aller Lobhudelei und den wirklich sehr netten und oft stattfindenden Promotions mit sehr großzügigen Preisen, muss man auch mal sagen, dass die Limitierungspolitik von Sportsbet bisschen nervig ist Bin wohl lifetime kein winning player bei SB, trotzdem ist der Preis-Boost schon vor langer Zeit verschwunden und die Limits werden auch immer niedriger. An Geld scheint es SB nicht zu mangeln und ich bin auch froh über ein vernünftiges Risk-Management, aber irgendwo macht es auch einen gierigen Eindruck, wenn nur losing player hofiert werden.

SB ist da ja keine Ausnahme und sie sind super nah an der user base dran durch dieses Forum, aber wenn man auf eine 4er Quote nur 0.XX mBTC setzen kann, dann nützt das auch alles nichts Aber da kannst du ja nichts für Simon, wollte es nur mal erwähnt haben

Sorry to hear that, hope you will get those back. I would recommend to go into their Discord, present your case there and talk to someone from IF. Afaik David will compensate affected users, but be prepared to be asked to deliver detailed proof and also various documents for KYC.

Thanks Tbh I have no idea how the bookmakers came up with these odds for the totals. Last round in all german leagues normally have rather low-ish odds for o/u 2.5. In round 34 of 1.&2. Bundesliga you could barely find any over 2.5 odds of more than 1.60. And in 1860/Rostock games you have clear indicators for all 4 teams needing to push right from the beginning, so not sure, why these odds are so high - I will probably know after the games have finished I can only imagine that odds compilers just bot-like used their algorithms without looking at the table and/or not knowing about Bayern II not being eligible to promote (but this is well known and no secret). I don't expect the odds to drop a lot - they rarely do with over/under - but I think both odds have very good value, so I placed my bet already. But I will add to my stake inplay, if there are no early goals and good opportunities arise in the latter stages of the games and the teams open up even more and go all-in.


Dritte Liga is certainly not like ISL2 or NED2, but also not like ITA2 or FRA2, it's something inbetween. Here are the stats for leagues 1-3 in Germany (taken from SoccerStats):

1. Bundesliga, over 2.5: 65.0%
2. Bundesliga, over 2,5: 53.9%
Dritte Liga, over 2,5: 57.6%

And for comparison:

NED2: 63.4%
ITA2: 42.9%
FRA2: 38.9%

Lets check the o/u for Rostock, Chemnitz, Ingolstadt and 1860:


Source: https://www.soccerstats.com/trends.asp?league=germany3

So even all of these teams are generally not super high scoring, they do play more over than under, apart from Rostock, who are close. Just adding those % like a moron, 1860 - Ingolstadt has 58% (odds 1.72) of going over and Chemnitz - Rostock has 53% (odds 1.88). Now take into account the circumstances, where a draw isn't enough for all of the teams - only Ingolstadt could maybe live with a draw, if everything falls into place for them - and I think these odds for over 2.5 are totally wrong.

I put 7/10 as stake, since I see very good value. You can maybe place a smaller bet now, to satisfy parts of your FOMO^^ and sleep it over one night, follow the odds movement and add to your stake Friday/Saturday, depending on your gut feeling. Or wait for inplay and jump in then with more money.

Over/under 2.5 is always more of a gamble in the end, so I would recommend to not overstake. Lets say Ingolstadt leads 3-0 and Zwickau leads 3-0 at Mannheim, then there is no need for Rostock/Chemnitz to push anymore, since Rostock can't get promoted no more and Chemnitz is relegated.

Two picks for season finale in Dritte Liga on Saturday.


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/standings/OlUUjkDi/nmi3z2iQ/#table;overall

Bayern II is not eligible for promotion, Braunschweig is through to 2. Bundesliga with todays win. 3rd place will go to 2. Bundesliga as well and 4th place will go into playoffs against Nürnberg.

The matchups for last round:

Munich 1860 - Ingolstadt
Duisburg - Unterhaching
Chemnitz - Rostock
(Würzburg - Halle)

Munich 1860 needs a win against Ingolstadt, to keep their hopes alive.
Ingolstadt could live with a draw and secure 4th place, if both Duisburg/Rostock don't win. But Ingolstadt could overtake Würzburg with a win, if they lose against Halle at home (unlikely, but we have seen it all).
It's very likely that either of Duisburg/Rostock win, so Ingolstadt needs a win as well in the end. They can't just play for a draw here and will have to push for a win, just like 1860 has to do.

Rostock needs to hope, that Ingolstadt doesn't win at 1860, win their own game and work on their goal differential, in case Duisburg wins as well. Rostock has +13, while Duisburg has +16, so Rostock needs to win with big margin.
Rostock's opponent Chemnitz themselves need all 3 points as well, since this is the only possibility to avoid relegation. And they need to win with big margin as well, because if Zwickau only draws at Mannheim, goal differential will be the decider. Zwickau has -5 and Chemnitz has -8, so Chemnitz has to win with at least 3 goals difference while scoring a lot (a 7-4+ would do the trick, else they would have to win with 4 goals difference).
Both teams will have to push a lot in this game and I expect a crazy one.

In these two matches, we have 4 teams that have to push for 90 minutes and thus I am betting both games to go over 2.5 at fantastic odds.

1860 - Ingolstadt over 2.5 @1.9+
Chemnitz - Rostock over 2.5 @2.0+

I made a parlay with those two for odds around 3.85, stake 7/10.

Best striker probably yes. But you also have to take into account that Lewandowski, as much as any other player, is also the product of a whole team effort. If you have very good players around you, that makes you better as well. They give you assists, play good passes, drag defenders from you away etc. Put Lewandowski into Mainz team and he won't shine that much imo, though he would still be very successful because of his pure class. Otoh, put Haaland into Bayern attack and he would crush all records too

I don't know, if he is the best player in Bundesliga, since it's too hard to compare. He gets a lot of spotlight and has nice stats, because it's all about goals in football, but there are a lot of unsung heroes that do excellent work, but it won't show up in any statistics.

Yes, but sounded to me like only the main (first) account will get unfrozen and the rest remains closed. When you multi-account, you normally don't have money in all the accounts and for sure not in the first account (since it's useless there due to limitations). Now OP looks like he just was a bit careless and had no bad intentions - although Stunna said otherwise - but people like him make life hard for everyone else unfortunately.

If Stake actually unfreezes all accounts (that have funds), this would surprise me and opens the floodgates.

Well, you violated their T&C's, which you accepted when opening the account. So technically they have the right to freeze your account and lock your funds. Morally this is another issue, but you won't stand a chance to get your money back imo.

He had surgery again the other day, because among other things, he was in danger of losing his eyesight. Looks like he is in stable condition on a physical level, but the neurological state is still a bit unknown as long as he kept in artificial coma.

This last statement in the article.....


.....reminds me very much of M. Schumacher, where the same agreement was made and up until today we don't really know how he is doing and it can be assumed, that he until now didn't recover very much, but is stable on a low level. Lets hope the best for Zanardi.

Jilin decided to not show up in Q4 and even lost the game in consequence, 102-105 FT, -4.00.
Liaoning did their job - odds went down to 1.40-ish before tip-off - and dominated Q1-Q3, while showing some mercy in Q4, 120-107 FT, +11.44.

Profit: +9.13   
Yield: 15.22%   
W-L: 8-6
Win rate: 57.14%   
Average Stake: 4.29   
Average Odds: 2.42

---

This thread is a bit difficult to maintain like this, so I will post fewer bets in the future here, to make it more convenient for everyone who likes to follow.

In situations like these you don't even need a proper football coach, you need some kind of a psychologist. This is a mental game and has been for Nürnberg since a few weeks and they were not up for it (like Hamburg). You need to make a clear cut; what was in the past doesn't matter no more, it's all about these two games now. Wiesinger/Mintal is ok I guess, because they have some roots in that club and probably will treat the players like friends and not on a player vs. coach basis. I would have liked a coach who is strong in motivating players (like Labbadia), but difficult contract-wise and Nürnberg can't really plan anything until they know in which division they will play next year. Would be surprised if Wiesinger/Mintal are the longterm solution though.


Don't feel bad man. As I said back then, the odds were a bit too low for my liking, but it was nice reading a proper analysis in this thread. And maybe it was in fact a good bet, that just didn't play out, you never know

Looks very nice, congratulations, gives me good Betfair vibes Just on the weekend I lost some money (or had less profit, since I was hedging my profits) at another exchange, because there were connection problems due to heavy traffic. You never knew, if your bet was taken or not. As a consequence I submitted my hedge twice, which I only found out after the bet was already decided I was thinking about Exbet then and how cool it would be, if you had your exchange already up and running (without issues hopefully )

A video popped up some hours ago showing Zverev at a party in Monaco during the weekend and Kyrgios commented on that. I always thought Kyrgios was way dumber than Zverev, but I guess I was wrong

Alexander Zverev attends a party while being in self-isolation, Nick Kyrgios responds

I didn't think about it particularly in regards to NFL, since I am not betting it very seriously, but more for the fun of it. What I learned by betting the german Bundesliga is, that there is basically no home advantage no more - there seems to actually be an away advantage Last 9 rounds after Corona break went 26-19-37, so 32% home wins, 23% draws and a whopping 45% away wins. It got a bit better for the home teams in the end, at some point there were only 11% home wins.

These numbers are not only caused by lack of fan support, but also because the refs are not that biased with no home crowd around, that could cheer them into some decision (even with VAR available). Now I don't think the fans can influence the refs into some decisions in the NFL like they can do in soccer, but the absence of fan support should result in the home teams having less home advantage. But as far as I know, it's still not yet decided, if there will be no spectators at all or maybe at 50% stadium capacity or whatever.

With reduced preparation/pratice time, this will definitely be advantageous for teams like the Chiefs, who were able keep everyone. If you have a lot of young and new players and maybe a new QB on top of that, you are doomed imo, since it takes a lot of time to get everyone in sync (and NFL ready for the young players).

There was a team in german Bundesliga that had to go into 2-week quarantine shortly before the season resumed. When they were allowed to play again, they were completely lost, because practice is so very different to in-competition (and the teams they played already had 2-3 matches under their belt). You need more than some days of practice after a long-ish break to get match-fit again. So if certain teams get more practice time than others, that should give them an advantage as well. Especially in such a physical and sophisticated sport that American Football is.

Hehe, although I called the Pats fans, I am happy with every opinion in fact This thread needs some more action again, we are not that far away from September anymore and it will be a special season with a lot of unknowns and special circumstances.


Source: https://twitter.com/AndrewBrandt/status/1276138959098257409

Now the above won't happen, but next season could see some very weird dynamics due to all the Corona-related issues. Teams that are in rebuild mode will have a disadvantage in comparison to teams that were able to keep their core players and/or don't have a new QB.


It certainly won't be as easy as it used to be, but they are priced more or less the same as the Bills for winning AFC East. Jets/Dolphins won't stand any chance imo and the Bills, well, they are the Bills and not the best run organisation. And don't forget, that there will be an additional wild card per conference starting this season