Technically you don't have Biden at 60%, but the field, which makes the 1.667 (sorry, I always calculate in decimal odds ) good, since Betfair has 1.71 for Biden and you have lower commission from all I know. The Field then covers any medical issues for Biden - but also for Trump, because he can get sick as well, so if I was to bet against Trump, I would probably prefer your odds.

But those odds for Trump are shitty with 2.23 compared to Betfairs 2.84 right now, even with commission advantage.

That would be a brave bet imo, but you never know. You will be fine as long as the score is 0-0, but once a goal has been scored for either side, a second/third/fourth will come - depending on at what time the 1-0/0-1 was scored. If it's not 0-0 anymore, you will always have one of the teams needing to push and this normally leads to goals. 
It could very well be, that it's 0-0 deep into HT2, because there is so much at stake and both teams don't want to take any risks, but I wouldn't feel comfortable with under 1.5 bet even in 80th minute with 0-0.
Since reintroduction of relegation playoffs in 2009, there were always 2+ goals in both legs combined. But there is a first for everything of course


Well, I said that Werder is likely able to snatch out a hard fought win, but Heidenheim would be happy with any draw. So not really spot on, just a little bit

Egal ob der Preisboost gerade aktiv ist oder nicht, ich habe ihn nie, da er bereits seit einiger Zeit für mich persönlich nicht mehr verfügbar ist.


Geht ja nicht um die Promos, die immer sehr cool sind und an denen ich öfter teilnehme, sondern....


.....dass mein Account mittlerweile so stark limitiert ist, dass ich in 99% der Fälle nicht das setzen kann, was ich möchte (weil max bet niedriger ist). Und von Dienstag auf Mittwoch hat sich mein persönliches Limit nochmal halbiert, obwohl ich Dienstag nur +/-0 war
Winning player zu limitieren kann ich ja noch irgendwo nachvollziehen, aber Leute, die nur Geld wechseln oder kleine Gewinne overall machen, ich weiss nicht. Die ganzen Promos kommen ja nicht von irgendwo her, sondern weil SB quasi nur losing player bei sich duldet und dadurch natürlich Kohle ohne Ende macht, von der man dann "großzügig" Promotions machen kann.

Chips sent, the password is on its way via PM.



No late registration available, so register asap maybe. And also don't forget about the lottery, where you can win some additional money, if you fail to go deep on Sunday. Good luck and thanks for the interest in our series.

-

Both Wild Cards have been given out now.

Well, Heidenheim was the expected annoying opponent for Werder. Good defensive performance, while always keeping Werder busy with counter-attacks. Not sure for whom this is a better result in the end, since Werder does better away and a scoring draw will be enough for them in 2nd leg. Heidenheim was 11-4-2 at home, which made them second best home team in 2. Bundesliga. Against Bielefeld they played 0-0, Stuttgart 2-2 and beat Hamburg 2-1 with a goal in the final seconds.

Odds for Monday: Heidenheim - Bremen 3.14 3.56 2.24. I think Werder is too low considering Heidenheim lost only two games at home all season (in the very beginning of the season even). If there is a draw late in the game with goals scored, Heidenheim has to open up and Werder could score on a counter-attack, but 1X looks to have some value at this point pre-match.

Shandong - Jilin HC2 -5,5 @1.93 4/10
Two teams that weren't very successful after the break, but Jilin looked sharper all in all and Shandong have some trouble with their personnel.

Nanjing - Xinjiang Halftime HC2 -7.5 @1.86 4/10
The top teams often go full throttle in first half to be able to rest their top players in second half a bit during these busy times and keep them fresh.

Cool, I have sent you 1000 chips:



The tournament is already up for registration (Sunday 5pm UTC). I will send you the password via PM, please note that there is no late registration.

Not sure, if you are familiar with our structure, but you will get at least 10 tickets for an internal lottery with your participation, which will be held after 8 tournaments somewhere in August. So if you don't become a regular player, you should check this thread the latest in August then again to see, if you won something in the lottery. But maybe you like our series afterall and will participate regularly, albeit being busy on PokerStars at the same time when we play

Good luck for Sunday.

Herlichen Glückwunsch Sehr verdient, super Beiträge im gambling Bereich, die ich gerne lese und die nicht nur bla bla sind, wie so vieles dort. Selbst wenn die FJ Kampagne dann wieder endet, solltest du keine Probleme haben, wieder was anderes zu finden

Hehe, of course it is. You always have to exaggerate a bit when discussing football to trigger emotions and discussions

Heidenheim actually have some players in their roster, that did already play in Bundesliga before. Kleindienst played in Bundesliga for Freiburg, Feick for Cottbus, Multhaup for Ingolstadt, Theuerkauf for Braunschweig and there might be more, but it's all small clubs and they weren't impact players there. They do have some talented youngsters like Dorsch whom you mentioned, but also David Otto and yes, we could see them in Bundesliga in the future. All in all their roster is above average for 2. Bundesliga standards, but not more. They are profiting a lot from so many clubs being run poorly (Bochum, St. Pauli, Hannover, Nürnberg), while they themselves are super solid and don't have any pressure from media, fans etc.

If they were to promote, they won't invest big time and will try to stay in Bundesliga with what they have right now; maybe adding an experienced player here and there (like Union did with Gentner, Subotic). Nevertheless, they will relegate after one season again, but I hope they will just stay in 2. Bundesliga where they belong in the end as of now.

Very nice

I will be adding two "Independence Day Weekend Wild Cards" for Sundays tournament. So if any of you lurkers wants to join the next tournament for free, just post your SwC handle in this thread and I will send you the buy-in. There are only two prerequisites: 1) You didn't participate in any of the 17 tournaments yet, i.e. you are complete newbie to our series. 2) You are not a Newbie in this forum. Don't be shy, we are friendly folks, who just like to play some poker and suck each other out from time to time. First come, first serve.

If I fail to give out the two wild cards for this Sunday due to low interest, they will be rolled over to the next tournament on July 12th.

@efialtis
I sent you the 800 chips extra fee for those two wild cards.

Heidenheim is super small club from a 50k town in the middle between Stuttgart, Nürnberg, Munich/Augsburg. Just 15 years ago they were still playing in 6th division and worked their way up from there; promoting to 2. Bundesliga only some years ago. They are a low-profile club doing solid work and having a very good coach. They live by a strong team chemistry and always play very disciplined. None of their players have the quality to play in Bundesliga, let alone in german national team. Some years ago their captain Schnatterer had the quality to play Bundesliga, but he decided to stay in Heidenheim and is a legend there. And I doubt he would have worked in Bundesliga, he is just a Heidenheim guy and would fail at any other team imo, because he wouldn't feel comfortable there.
Having a player from 2. Bundesliga playing in german NT is a very rare event. The last one was Jonas Hector iirc, who stayed at Cologne, when they relegated, but I can't remember another player.

I think it won't be easy for Werder today, because Heidenheim can be a pain the ass to play against. You still have this horrible home record from Werder, but they should be on a high after last weekends miracle. Heidenheim is poor in away games and I expect them to just sit back today and being happy with a 0-0 (or any scoring draw as well). In the end Werder should win this today all things considered, but I can't imagine it being a big win, something like 1-0/2-0/2-1 seems likely.

Bei aller Lobhudelei und den wirklich sehr netten und oft stattfindenden Promotions mit sehr großzügigen Preisen, muss man auch mal sagen, dass die Limitierungspolitik von Sportsbet bisschen nervig ist Bin wohl lifetime kein winning player bei SB, trotzdem ist der Preis-Boost schon vor langer Zeit verschwunden und die Limits werden auch immer niedriger. An Geld scheint es SB nicht zu mangeln und ich bin auch froh über ein vernünftiges Risk-Management, aber irgendwo macht es auch einen gierigen Eindruck, wenn nur losing player hofiert werden.

SB ist da ja keine Ausnahme und sie sind super nah an der user base dran durch dieses Forum, aber wenn man auf eine 4er Quote nur 0.XX mBTC setzen kann, dann nützt das auch alles nichts Aber da kannst du ja nichts für Simon, wollte es nur mal erwähnt haben

Sorry to hear that, hope you will get those back. I would recommend to go into their Discord, present your case there and talk to someone from IF. Afaik David will compensate affected users, but be prepared to be asked to deliver detailed proof and also various documents for KYC.

Thanks Tbh I have no idea how the bookmakers came up with these odds for the totals. Last round in all german leagues normally have rather low-ish odds for o/u 2.5. In round 34 of 1.&2. Bundesliga you could barely find any over 2.5 odds of more than 1.60. And in 1860/Rostock games you have clear indicators for all 4 teams needing to push right from the beginning, so not sure, why these odds are so high - I will probably know after the games have finished I can only imagine that odds compilers just bot-like used their algorithms without looking at the table and/or not knowing about Bayern II not being eligible to promote (but this is well known and no secret). I don't expect the odds to drop a lot - they rarely do with over/under - but I think both odds have very good value, so I placed my bet already. But I will add to my stake inplay, if there are no early goals and good opportunities arise in the latter stages of the games and the teams open up even more and go all-in.


Dritte Liga is certainly not like ISL2 or NED2, but also not like ITA2 or FRA2, it's something inbetween. Here are the stats for leagues 1-3 in Germany (taken from SoccerStats):

1. Bundesliga, over 2.5: 65.0%
2. Bundesliga, over 2,5: 53.9%
Dritte Liga, over 2,5: 57.6%

And for comparison:

NED2: 63.4%
ITA2: 42.9%
FRA2: 38.9%

Lets check the o/u for Rostock, Chemnitz, Ingolstadt and 1860:


Source: https://www.soccerstats.com/trends.asp?league=germany3

So even all of these teams are generally not super high scoring, they do play more over than under, apart from Rostock, who are close. Just adding those % like a moron, 1860 - Ingolstadt has 58% (odds 1.72) of going over and Chemnitz - Rostock has 53% (odds 1.88). Now take into account the circumstances, where a draw isn't enough for all of the teams - only Ingolstadt could maybe live with a draw, if everything falls into place for them - and I think these odds for over 2.5 are totally wrong.

I put 7/10 as stake, since I see very good value. You can maybe place a smaller bet now, to satisfy parts of your FOMO^^ and sleep it over one night, follow the odds movement and add to your stake Friday/Saturday, depending on your gut feeling. Or wait for inplay and jump in then with more money.

Over/under 2.5 is always more of a gamble in the end, so I would recommend to not overstake. Lets say Ingolstadt leads 3-0 and Zwickau leads 3-0 at Mannheim, then there is no need for Rostock/Chemnitz to push anymore, since Rostock can't get promoted no more and Chemnitz is relegated.

Two picks for season finale in Dritte Liga on Saturday.


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/standings/OlUUjkDi/nmi3z2iQ/#table;overall

Bayern II is not eligible for promotion, Braunschweig is through to 2. Bundesliga with todays win. 3rd place will go to 2. Bundesliga as well and 4th place will go into playoffs against Nürnberg.

The matchups for last round:

Munich 1860 - Ingolstadt
Duisburg - Unterhaching
Chemnitz - Rostock
(Würzburg - Halle)

Munich 1860 needs a win against Ingolstadt, to keep their hopes alive.
Ingolstadt could live with a draw and secure 4th place, if both Duisburg/Rostock don't win. But Ingolstadt could overtake Würzburg with a win, if they lose against Halle at home (unlikely, but we have seen it all).
It's very likely that either of Duisburg/Rostock win, so Ingolstadt needs a win as well in the end. They can't just play for a draw here and will have to push for a win, just like 1860 has to do.

Rostock needs to hope, that Ingolstadt doesn't win at 1860, win their own game and work on their goal differential, in case Duisburg wins as well. Rostock has +13, while Duisburg has +16, so Rostock needs to win with big margin.
Rostock's opponent Chemnitz themselves need all 3 points as well, since this is the only possibility to avoid relegation. And they need to win with big margin as well, because if Zwickau only draws at Mannheim, goal differential will be the decider. Zwickau has -5 and Chemnitz has -8, so Chemnitz has to win with at least 3 goals difference while scoring a lot (a 7-4+ would do the trick, else they would have to win with 4 goals difference).
Both teams will have to push a lot in this game and I expect a crazy one.

In these two matches, we have 4 teams that have to push for 90 minutes and thus I am betting both games to go over 2.5 at fantastic odds.

1860 - Ingolstadt over 2.5 @1.9+
Chemnitz - Rostock over 2.5 @2.0+

I made a parlay with those two for odds around 3.85, stake 7/10.

Best striker probably yes. But you also have to take into account that Lewandowski, as much as any other player, is also the product of a whole team effort. If you have very good players around you, that makes you better as well. They give you assists, play good passes, drag defenders from you away etc. Put Lewandowski into Mainz team and he won't shine that much imo, though he would still be very successful because of his pure class. Otoh, put Haaland into Bayern attack and he would crush all records too

I don't know, if he is the best player in Bundesliga, since it's too hard to compare. He gets a lot of spotlight and has nice stats, because it's all about goals in football, but there are a lot of unsung heroes that do excellent work, but it won't show up in any statistics.

Yes, but sounded to me like only the main (first) account will get unfrozen and the rest remains closed. When you multi-account, you normally don't have money in all the accounts and for sure not in the first account (since it's useless there due to limitations). Now OP looks like he just was a bit careless and had no bad intentions - although Stunna said otherwise - but people like him make life hard for everyone else unfortunately.

If Stake actually unfreezes all accounts (that have funds), this would surprise me and opens the floodgates.

Well, you violated their T&C's, which you accepted when opening the account. So technically they have the right to freeze your account and lock your funds. Morally this is another issue, but you won't stand a chance to get your money back imo.

He had surgery again the other day, because among other things, he was in danger of losing his eyesight. Looks like he is in stable condition on a physical level, but the neurological state is still a bit unknown as long as he kept in artificial coma.

This last statement in the article.....


.....reminds me very much of M. Schumacher, where the same agreement was made and up until today we don't really know how he is doing and it can be assumed, that he until now didn't recover very much, but is stable on a low level. Lets hope the best for Zanardi.

Jilin decided to not show up in Q4 and even lost the game in consequence, 102-105 FT, -4.00.
Liaoning did their job - odds went down to 1.40-ish before tip-off - and dominated Q1-Q3, while showing some mercy in Q4, 120-107 FT, +11.44.

Profit: +9.13   
Yield: 15.22%   
W-L: 8-6
Win rate: 57.14%   
Average Stake: 4.29   
Average Odds: 2.42

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This thread is a bit difficult to maintain like this, so I will post fewer bets in the future here, to make it more convenient for everyone who likes to follow.