It is very dangerous to bet on a team that is unstable while Newcastle have lost consistently in the previous 4 matches and a win against Aston Villa could indeed be an initial sign of improving performance but for me a team that is unstable has only shown one win which is not enough to convince me.
personally, I would choose to bet on Luton score over 0.5 with odds @1.5 even though in this match Luton is playing away but Luton already knows Newcastle weakness, whereas in the previous match Luton was always able to score at least 1 score and this means Luton can repeat its previous performance.
Newcastle is actually in a difficult position with several players injured while playing against a team that should be considered weak but it is possible that in this match they will repeat the same mistakes.

In this match, I'm sure there are many bettors who don't want to take too big a risk, choosing Newcastle as the winner because it has made bettors lose several times before.

I would choose neither.
betting on the winning team will be very risky whereas we have the same risk but the odds are too small.
for me, I would prefer to bet on a handicap with bigger odds even though it is very risky but we have to remember that small odds are also too risky but if we choose bigger odds when we win it will be very profitable compared to small odds but the winnings are not worth the risk we take.

like Darmstadt vs Leverkusen, for me the odds are a little doubtful because usually Leverkusen always get odds of less than @1.2 but I saw from the bookie that Leverkusen has odds @1.32 which means there could be a surprise that happens but looking at the data on injured players there is actually no problem on the Leverkusen player and rather than doubting it would be better I would choose to bet on the -1 handicap with odds @1.46 because I am sure that at least Leverkusen will score 2 scores and Darmstadt will not score.

and for Bayern Munich vs Monchengladbach I will bet on btts with odds @1.64
I'm sure that in this match both teams are guaranteed to score because since then when the two teams meet and compete they can always score and I'm also sure there will be a big score in that match.
of the bets I choose, this is much better for me than having to choose a team that wins with small odds.

I am sure that if Armando Broja can perform well while he is at Chelsea, he will definitely be made permanent soon because I never thought that Chelsea was lacking in terms of finances because the wealth that Chelsea has is still enough to bring in quality players.
Armando Broja is a very talented young player, it's just that he is in a team that maybe for me is not the right one, but being at Chelsea also doesn't provide a guarantee because currently Chelsea is experiencing difficulties in terms of performance.
there is nothing wrong if Chelsea wants to try to find references for other players and continue to look for young players who can help improve this team performance and it looks like Pochettino will continue to hunt for young players in the current transfer market.

I often tell the story of my gambling journey in the past where I felt like a bad addict and I answered yes, I have experienced that.
at that time, before I recovered from addiction and had time to leave this forum for a moment, I really regretted selling something valuable because I was tempted by a previous bet which had made me lose and chased after that loss, but in the end I couldn't think wisely, all the money I had was lost. in gambling and finally I left gambling, I didn't go home and left the house for more than a week. I just isolated myself in a building. I thought about regretting that I couldn't control myself and had sold all my valuables and the item I sold was the last valuable item. that I have.
but luckily someone I didn't know passed in front of me and saw my condition like a depressed person and long story short I told that person about my regrets and he advised me to go home and I finally told my family about everything. I was addicted and finally I was matched by a woman who is now my wife who helped me recover from addiction.
this story happened before I got married and now I have forgotten everything about my past and I have become a more responsible gambler and have never regretted anything I did in the past.

It's normal to regret losing at gambling, but always apply wise thinking to think that tomorrow we will get compensation for the losses we experienced, whether from our work salary bonus or from anywhere else, but be assured that these losses are your valuable experience and you don't need to regret them.

In other words, we can see or follow the predictions of these experts, but only to compare the analysis we have done before and still prioritize the predictions we make ourselves, while the predictions given by experienced gamblers will only be a reference.
I often see predictions from experienced gamblers and I never pay anything, it's just that I usually after making a prediction and being a little confused I will compare it with the predictions of several experts and see if my predictions are similar to the predictions they made and if they are almost the same but there are some are different, I still believe more in my own predictions.

there are lots of prediction channels out there from expert bettors who share the results of their predictions for free, but for me, these predictions don't work well, in fact they just make inconsequential predictions which can lead us astray.
so I support what you have said, if it's just for comparison, that's fine, but don't follow the experts' predictions too much.

one day we will always ask ourselves when we come to gambling with a feeling of wanting to have fun but are lucky to get big win but why do we forget our own rules and become greedy?
sometimes a gambler has the intention to gamble to try his luck by having fun, but when he is lucky, gambler should stop betting and withdraw his winnings and enjoy the results of that luck, but for some reason, to this day, I still find it difficult to commit when I get a small win, I can't immediately stop gambling but have the desire to bet again for at least 5 or 10 more rounds.

therefore, most people often say that winning is the beginning of greed and greed is the beginning of addiction because it is a fact that we have to know that when we win big, we have to force ourselves to really stop gambling and we also have to force ourselves to end the session our bet.
this way is to avoid the regret of losing our winnings again when the initial plan was to gamble to have fun but in the end it ended in a bad way.

knowing the right time to stop is very easy but it is difficult to fight against our own thoughts and mentality.
someone will always easily talk to other people or say stop when it's time but it's not as easy as they say because we have to fight with thoughts that are emotional and tempted by gambling.
but we can always try, even though there are always difficulties in learning to know the right time to stop, but we can learn to get used to easier methods such as limiting losses or when we lose 4 times, stop immediately or limit winnings when they reach $10.

with this basic method, we can get used to our mentality to be strong enough to resist the temptation to gamble after our mentality and thoughts get used to this basic method, we can try to use other methods to be more consistent in always stopping when we win or lose.

It's okay if we share stories related to the monthly salary we get because this thread is just like place to share experiences, it not meant to brag, but if you really can't tell it, you can just say half of your income.
but I respect what you say because everyone has different thoughts so I understand if you dont want to say it.

regarding your total maximum limit of $150 but for me that is quite large amount if you are betting and would not recommend it to anyone.
and I'm sure that even though in the past you had  serious problem with gambling, I'm sure it was an experience that made you healthy gambler.

from everything you mentioned, I have experienced it except violence.
even though I used to be a bad addict, I only experienced declining health and bad responsibilities, but I have never experienced violence against my family or other people. It's just that when I get emotional, I prefer to stay in the room and drink alcohol as an outlet emotions after regret.
every gambling addict may have their own characteristics and for gambling addicts who commit violence when they vent their emotions on their family or other people, I'm sure they have a violent nature, even without being a gambling addict, they will also occasionally commit violence when they are angry.

this is all about the bad effects of gambling because behind the fun of gambling there are many bad effects that affect a person's life and even destroy a person's future, so threads like this always remind us all of the dangers of gambling addiction and before becoming a gambling addict, we have to know what it is. things to pay attention to and what to avoid when betting so that we stay away from addiction.

it all depends on how we think about how to interpret words of wisdom or quotes like that and I think quotes like that are aimed at everyday life, not for gambling as I once said in another thread "big luck is only for those who are willing to take big risks "
this means that anyone will never be able to get lucky if they don't do anything, such as working hard or building a business to make a profit, because usually someone is afraid to take risks when they want to build a business.
and from the Chinese proverb that you said, I think that if someone doesn't make any effort in the business sector, they will definitely never know how successful they will be in the future.

well, this is all just about how we interpret these words of wisdom, but if someone can't think critically, they will just judge instantly and do what the saying says, but if someone has a critical mind, they will usually read and interpret the things they say. being logical in real life does not mean that gambling is risky for anyone.
maybe wise words like this usually influence beginner gamblers more because they still have big ambitions to get big wins and the existence of this saying is like giving support to beginner gamblers to continue betting.

IMO, doing research before each bet will not provide a guarantee of winning the match, it can only increase the chances of winning that we will get and the odds given by the bookmaker will not guarantee that we will always win, even if it is small odds look convincing, sometimes small odds lead us astray.
I remember there was a thread talking about a bettor betting on the NFL throwing away $1.4 million worth of bets to bet at odds less than @1.01 and perhaps that bettor foolishly believed in the low odds just to get a small win but didn't see how big it was the risk he is taking, and I agree with what you said that don't bet too big because we don't know what is planned behind the scenes.
In the case of bettors who lose big, I don't think it's rigged, but for me there are indications that it could be rigged when the opposing team makes a surprising comeback.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5435885.msg61615047#msg61615047]

maybe the story I am telling can be an example and we still have to be careful, don't trust too much in low odds or big odds, but still do strict research to avoid surprises like that.

women's football here does not have much interest and the average bettor here chooses to bet on men's football.
I don't know why most people prefer to bet on football played by men, but in my opinion it's all because not only as a bettor but also as a supporter of a popular team in a league, men's football is more popular here.
but actually as a pure bettor they will bet on any match.
If you really want to create a thread to discuss women's football, you can do it, even though there has been a previous thread, but I see the thread is very quiet and there is no interest from bettors in discussing the match.

well, that's what I mean if gambling is just like a side income but not from betting but through other means such as becoming an influencer or becoming streamer to be able to get other income besides your main job.
as long we have skills related to gambling, we can use gambling as stepping stone to career and make money as you said.
In the development of advanced technology like this, we really have to be smarter in taking advantage of opportunities to make money, while the development of online gambling has spread throughout every country, so it would be better if we tried to find other income from gambling, but not from betting.

In the current era of advanced technological development, men and women can freely gamble anytime, anywhere without exception, but still everyone can change for the worse when addicted because there is no difference between male gamblers and female gamblers because both can become addicted.
but it is very rare for female gamblers to be addicted because they think they value money more and usually female gamblers also get bored more quickly and usually use their money for something more useful and it is not surprising that you and some other people rarely see female gamblers who are addicted and become very bad even I have only once seen a female gambler who was almost depressed, but that incident was in 2016.

maybe everyone will think and ask why there are so few female gambling addicts because women have more thoughts about things that are more beneficial for themselves or their children. on the one hand, women will not bother thinking about making more money from gambling because they will rely on their husband's salary.
different from men who have big responsibilities and are always thinking about making more and more money.
we always see crazy men or depressed or stressed men more often than crazy women because men have big responsibilities compared to women.

I am one of the majority of people who like to think realistically and logically. If a fortune teller can help someone win a bet, why doesn't a fortune teller bet large amounts himself to become rich and stop being someone who predicts other people's luck?
and gambling is a game of luck that has been designed by a complicated algorithm that is difficult to solve but ridiculously a fortune teller can determine other people's luck while the fortune teller is still working as a fortune teller instead of being rich.
on the one hand, sometimes even a gambling employee cannot win a large bet because as I said, everything has been designed by a complicated algorithm.

I never had the thought or intention of trying to go to a fortune teller to ask for help predicting where I should play to get a big win and for me it's just superstition and if someone comes to see a fortune teller and gets a big win it's just luck and I'm sure of it will not be able to be obtained in a row.

I don't have an experience like this but around me there are lots of people aged 50+ practicing superstitious things like this by sleeping in graves with the assumption of getting help from the devil through dreams and buying lottery tickets to get big jackpots but in fact they still have not become rich and even become sick because they often sleep outside the house in the open.
anyone should not do things like this because it is pure superstition and just a waste of time.

maybe what you mean is telling about success in winning but not telling about the amount.
there's no harm in telling anyone about winning from gambling, but you still have to look at your friend's condition, whether they are feeling well or are sad about losing from gambling because the impact is not only to make you jealous, but your friend might borrow money to bet and catch up. it's a loss and of course you will think that if you lend him money, you will only lose again and he won't be able to return your money, but if you don't give him a loan, your friend will definitely be angry.
well, that's when the bad impact of telling stories about winnings to the wrong people is like misleading yourself and actually the right friend to tell the story to is only your partner.
giving a little money to another friend and telling about the win is a very wise way, but it still has bad consequences in the end.
I prefer to hide everything about defeats and wins to avoid other risks as I said.

thinking about other people? yes, it is necessary but I won't do it because usually they will continue to approach us when we get a big win but they will avoid us when we have nothing left.

gambling always has negative impacts if we are not wise in doing it and there are many negative impacts including losing our job.
as you said, even though gambling is fun, it will definitely require high concentration and tension which will cause high emotional tension and will definitely affect one's work, such as unfinished work or feelings of regret for losing and being lazy to complete work.
I just feel a little confused why there are still people who gamble at work when work is the main thing that is prioritized and gambling should be used in free time or if you really have good self control you can access gambling at work but only when you have time It's break time so you can use it to entertain yourself.

but it's still not recommended and don't be reckless in doing this because there are situations that sometimes make the situation very bad and you still have the idea of prioritizing work over gambling.

from some of the discussions you talked about I have concluded that actually the person who tries to spend $100k has the hope of doubling the money he has but he has the wrong way of using it to bet while he forgets about the big risk that luck will not come to him again.
TBH, I was a little curious about the story and looked for it but unfortunately I didn't find this incident, but in essence we hope that gambling is normal and there is no harm, but still don't use large amounts or only try with small amounts according to the limits.

just imagine if for example he had 100k and used 5% as a gambling budget and bet on sports bets which have less risk than slot games which really depend on luck.
for example he bets $1k on 5 matches and each match has odds @1.5 wouldn't that be very profitable than hoping on a slot game that is difficult to predict?

but however, it was a decision that ended badly and this could be an example for anyone not to have high hopes for gambling.

you provide a very subtle and easy understanding for anyone here to understand.
having a fixed income is mandatory because to bet we definitely need money whereas if a gambler doesn't have a fixed income how to generate a budget for gambling and of course he only relies on other people borrowing money from other friends and if a gambler is just unemployed and is still determined to gamble I'm sure they have the assumption that gambling is their job to make money.

and on the one hand, if a gambler has a job and has a steady income, when we make a loss, we won't have problem because we still have income that can cover the loss.
even though there are no rules like this in gambling, it is highly recommended for anyone that if they really want to be a gambler, it would be better to have job that can make money every month and if you don't have job, it would be better if you dont have to bet or avoid gambling to avoid something bad.

first and third options are enough to represent being a responsible gambler implementing these two options, a gambler can start to become a healthy gambler and can get other references about what he should pay attention to in order to continue to be a gambler who is consistent with his own rules.
there are many more options that are often ignored by irresponsible gamblers, they ignore how gambling works which can give encouragement to their own minds not to put too much money into gambling.

I really appreciate this post and this can be advice for any gambler not to ignore small things like this but it is very important for the future of a gambler who must remain a healthy gambler and remain responsible for every bet made.