Even if I clipped out part of your point, I did not misunderstand the point that you were attempting to make, and you are making it again.

Largely this thread is about bitcoin, so there is no need for us to get into from where bitcoin comes (and under which category it might fit) or technical appreciations of what bitcoin might be and not be... we do not tend to be a technical thread, and those kinds of ideas would largely distract us from applicability questions - and common man understandings which are likely needed.  There are other threads for nuanced technical and nuanced historical discussions.  I doubt this is one of them nor was it even the point that Torque and I were attempting to flesh out.  Largely the point that both Torque and I were discussing has to do with a more narrow understanding of the vagueness in which bitcoin is contexualized or failed to be contexualized within the term crypto, when referring to the concept of crypto currencies, and I do not even believe it helps here to go into further abstraction rather than sticking with the more basic original point(s) that we were attempting to discuss.


perhaps.. that is kind of related.  Perhaps.


You are still getting into the weeds of seeming irrelevance.. or at least tangential relevance, at best.


Sure this part is a relevant and ongoing issue in current times.



You are going beyond the point.. because we were talking about crypto in terms of money.. and in terms of convoluting the issue in terms of not specifying bitcoin's role in the actual space in terms of its king daddy status amongst the various snake oil imitations that try to be presented as if they were some how equivalent to bitcoin and there are none that even come close, at least as I type this post.


That would be even further off topic, but could be an interesting thread... if a thread on that topic does not already exist.

Sorry about exposing some opsec, here.  Look at the dude trying to talk some sense into the llama.



Doesn't appear to be working out too well, so far.

I do remain a wee bit uncertain how to deal with the matter, and frequently, I will criticize others for their vagueness or their lack of explanation when they employ the term.  

Even though I continue to agree with the overall sentiment in your above statement, Torque, I do believe that this space continues to evolve, and how we describe the space is going to continue to evolve, too.

I am not suggesting that I am inclined to start to be less denigrating towards the variety of shitcoinery, and especially in a thread like this, we have to be careful NOT to give too much benefit of the doubt to any shitcoins, ICOs, defi tokens/projects, yield farming, etc. because it just seems like a slippery slope that devolves into off-topicness - so probably in that regard, it continues to be way better to merely cursorily dismiss the various shitcoins and projects in this thread.  

I suppose to the extent that any of us might be inclined to really get involved in those various projects, we would discuss those efforts outside of this thread.

Another ongoing problem that we have is trying to figure out BTC price movements and BTC price dynamics.. whether long term or short term - and surely, it would seem quite incomplete to NOT account for some of the ongoing shicoinery shenanigans.....

So probably several of us are going to employ differing frameworks when attempting to characterize the variety of factors that we believe to be affecting BTC's price, and not only might we be wrong from time to time, we might not really be able to anticipate which kinds of projects are going to come out of various spaces whether we are referring to shitcoins or even if we are considering how the fed money printing policies are playing out and even various other traditional markets - equities or otherwise.  Lots of balls to have in the air that seem to have certain kinds of effects on BTC in terms of trying to figure out 1) how we got to our current place in BTC, 2) where we are exactly, and 3) where we might be going (short term or even long term).



You know better than that, nullius.

When some of us are getting pissed off by the use of the term crypto, we don't know what the fuck the author might be talking about.  Are they talking about bitcoin or some other crypto currency that is also known as a shitcoin.  They better fucking specify instead of being vague.

And, sure, sometimes it is not even the author's fault in terms of communicating about crypto because some authors might not even realize that they do not understand how bitcoin is differentiated from the various other projects that they lump into the "crypto" category.

Those of us who are worked up about the vague term of crypto useage these days are not referring to pre-bitcoin useage of the term to the extent that we even understand much of the pre-bitcoin history.  Of course, some folks, like yourself, have a better understanding of some of the pre bitcoin dynamics, and even if that likely helps you in various aspects of life, including being able to differentiate between bitcoin and shitcoins, such cypher or crypto knowledge is still not necessary to appreciate some of the bare basics regarding how bitcoin is distinguished from a variety of shitcoins and why normies (who might not know shit about anything beyond sound money or gresham law principles - which are accessible to almost anyone) should end up recognizing bitcoin as the best place to store their value in terms of principles of sound money that is already somewhat intuitively already understood, even by folks with little or not formal education... whether cryptography, cypher punk or any of those more sophisticated technical and ideological components that underly aspects of bitcoin's historical roots.

Well, yeah. 

I was merely rounding to two digits in an attempt to ease any potential reader, and surely attempting to hedge the lack of precision in my estimate, too.

Concedingly, I am an amateur when it comes to my BTC price predictions, and I even surprised myself in my own level of bullishness in this particular estimation.  It is not frequently that anyone finds me even breaking above 53% or 54% in my willingness to assert BTC's short-term price direction.


Again, i hope not to be judging anyone based on my own standards and/or achieved lifestyle or largely my having had reached my BTC accumulation and maintenance goals (sure it is a work in progress, but certain stages had been surpassed quite a while back), yet I would like to assert that I took my BTC accumulation and maintenance stage quite seriously while i was in the midst of them - especially the accumulation phase (but practicing ongoing maintenance is nothing to sneeze at either), so in my personal situation, engaging in liquidations and/or withdrawals still would likely leave way more BTC and wealth than my objectives in terms of excessiveness to heirs.

For sure, my personal goal is to spend my wealth (whether BTC or otherwise) down to some considerable degree that i would consider to be more fitting and smaller in size to pass down (if at all) - even though we hardly can know with any large degree of certainty regarding certain future events that could change some of the currently seeming existing dynamics.... including sudden death or something like that could befall any of us mere mortals at a time that is not of our own choosing or ability to predict.  We are left with only a variety of probable scenarios that we can attempt to work through - without, hopefully, necessarily locking ourselves in too much because of analysis paralysis.

I do believe that BTC accumulation and maintenance goals should be reached before entering into a phase that more greatly emphasizes liquidation goals, and surely I appreciate that some BTC accumulators, true believers might not even be able to appreciate the existence of liquidation goals in the event that they have not reached reasonable and sustainable BTC accumulation and/or maintenance goals.



I am not sure if that explanation completely clears Tyler of his seeming shitcoinery - but it lends a bit of additional credence to his word choice.  I generally appreciative of the various efforts of the winkelvoss bros in this space.. at least, so far.  I am also appreciative of a lot of what Trace Mayer had done, too, but Trace seems to have completely disappeared from the scene after his being called out on shitcoinery - that also coincided with a BIG ass market (BTC, crypto, et al) in March, and sometimes we are going to wonder how individuals may have gotten through those kinds of BIG market move times, including if they might have made some BIG plays (bets) that end up screwing them up - and harder to recover when certain BIG plays(bets) are made at the wrong time and/or in the wrong direction.

Here lil troll

Here lil troll


Have some foods.






 

I am a bit bothered by Tyler's use of the word "crypto" - even though i understand that it could be a camouflaging term.

Most of us active in this particular thread know that there would not be hardly any ability for the various shitcoins to flourish in their lil funzies without the underlying security that bitcoin provides the whole space..... Many of the shitcoins, defi and yield farming can proclaim that they are decentralized (when they are not) because they are operating under the ruse that bitcoin is secure in that decentralized sense.

Each of us must admit, the shitcoins are become quite creative in the way that they are taking (and making money) by one shitcoin copying the code of another shitcoin and one-upping them on which farm food they will employ as their mascot, and even official exchanges are listing such memecoins.  Has to have various affects on the space, including the purported wrapping of BTC... Give us your BTC, and we will wrap it in a piece of shit project and find out if your BTC is still alive after such wrappenings.  Cuyte, right?

I appreciate that you are tempted to be "creative" with your desires for non-liquidation of wealth, nullius, but please don't do that with your BTC nullius...  Your progeny NOT going to likey, likey.

Still $9,825 has been the lowest of the various BTC price dips below $10k in the past 6 days, and we have not quite gotten down to $9,800.  We have only been visiting these 4 digits in the past 6 days - which broke our streak above $10k that started on 7/26 and ended on 9/3. Of course, some folks are suggesting that the 5 digit streak is not broken until the daily candle closes below $10k...  Seems like a bit of an overblown technicality to me, but hey there are frequently ways to spin, even spinning the spin.

The latest dip below $10k was the most persistent and seemed to have been an attempt to get the daily candle to close below $10k, which was not successful. 

So, yeah there have been about 5 attempts that achieved getting below $10k, but so far have not been successful in staying below $10k for any kind of meaningful time - but that still does not mean that we are NOT going to go below $10k for a longer period of time.

I will be surprised if we are still ranging between $9k and $11k in the next couple of weeks and more so in a month, and even more surprised if that ranging were to play out for two months, given our current macro circumstances.  Up does seem slightly more likely than down.. maybe looking at 56.7/43.3 odds - but what do I know?  There surely are a lot of motivations for shaking a few trees of weak hands, and surely there are some folks who could be shooken.. especially if they are connected more broadly to some of the frothiness in the space... On the other hand, there are likely some shorts building, too, and could provide some incentive for them to get reckt, but will they?

Well, maybe I have been being too harsh on you?


I am largely trying to figure out what regular people should be doing, and maybe I am presuming too much about people in the west with banking and credit.

We know that it is already more difficult to do anything if you do not have credit or banking, so maybe if you are already living in a situation in which you do not have those kinds of things, then you are not going to have other potentially quasi-liquid investments, such as 401ks, either.

I would recognize, too that it could be more difficult to store value in cash, and maybe some of the people in that kind of situation might historically store value in PMs such as gold or have other ways to store value, such as property.. but then not very liquid.

So surely if you already have been going through a lot of the inconveniences of no banking, then bitcoin largely provides more options rather than less options.  I may be merely presuming too much regarding prior existing avenues to store value.

I hate to concede that I might be guilty, but I will say that I do not proclaim to be such a stickler for anyone who is getting into bitcoin needs to have other assets but having other assets tends to be one of the individualistic factors that needs to be considered in terms of how much to allocate into bitcoin.

I do also like to suggest that if someone is new to investing or just starting investing, then frequently, they will start with one asset rather than being concerned about diversification or reallocation.  Diversification and reallocation will usually come after some period of time that assets might be built in one or more assets and when the person starts to become too allocated in one asset... so surely in some circumstances, there may be needs to start out investing into bitcoin first...

Maybe we are getting to much into individual peculiarities, and surely in a thread like this it would seem to be preferable to speak to situations that can be more broadly applied... because when we get into the nitty gritty of individual circumstances, there can be a lot of variation, and those, again, are cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, risk tolerance, timeline, and time, skills and ability to manage portfolio, learn, trade, tweak from time to time.  Many times we are going to talk about those factors more generally as matters that each individual has to attempt to take into account when figuring out and implementing his approach to BTC and strategies.




Well, maybe you have whole systems that are different from the way that I think about some of these matters.

Are you suggesting that we should all attempt to take your approach, or what?



Well, we cannot go back in time, but we can attempt to figure out if there are some adjustments that we should be making currently.

I feel a bit spoiled in my own situation; however, i still think that the approach that i have taken through my whole life has a lot of decent qualities, and still can be applied to other people.  I am not trying to impose any of my system on other people, but just to share some ideas that might be helpful in order that other members can better help themselves or to better think through ways to tweak their own practices.

We have had a lot of members disclose that they have had to cash some BTC at a time that is not of their own choosing or some other seeming calamities like that, and even though i have had pretty decent cashflow, i have even had times that cashflow can become quite tight, and usually it seems to be worse if we are in long periods of BTC correction - or even take that quick flash crash of March 12, 2020... there were a lot of BIG bitcoin holders who got fucked in that situation because they were not playing their cards right.  I am not just referring to mindrust, but there were some hedge funds that went under from smart bitcoin maximalists like this Murad Muhmudov, and I am thinking that a few others had really got screwed out of that quickie crash situation.

I think that part of my point is that we should be attempting to protect ourselves for both upwards and downards and sideways bitcoin price movements, and of course, some of this will have to do with attempting to make sure that we are hedged.

I don't want to be over leveraged in any asset, whether we are talking about the dollar or even bitcoin.  The dollar can serve as a safehaven in regards to our bitcoin investment, though when bitcoin does an outrageous crash, whether it is a quickie crash or a prolonged one... but of course, that does not necessarily mean that I would be in love with the dollar, even if i might keep a certain percentage of my wealth in dollars, for short term living expenses and also, just in case bitcoin crashes, then maybe I want to buy some more or just have the dollars in case bitcoin keeps on crashing even further... I would prefer NOT to be stuck with no assets if BTC were to go to zero, merely because I failed and refused to hedge, when previously I had been living pretty good and then all of a sudden I cannot even eat, lodge myself or other things that are in the lifestyle that i have grown accustomed.


I probably had some similar dynamics in my life.  Seems to me that I never really pursued money, but sometime soon after I had left highschool, I attended a course that taught personal finance matters, and I recall that through my life, I had always striven to live within my means, so I always had a decent percentage of my income that I had saved - even though I can recall periods of time in which I was not making very much money, but I still saved a percentage of my income. Many times I tried to target at least 10% savings, even though i know sometimes I might not have reached that exactly.  

For a period of time, I did have some fortune of having some decently high paying work, which caused me to be able to save something like 60% of the pay for a period of time - a bit ridiculous but I was getting paid way more than my living expenses.. and that savings from that job likely generated a decent amount of the value that I was later able to put into bitcoin (or at least the freedom to put large sums into bitcoin, because I was otherwise set in terms of the rest of my finances.. .. which again i consider that relatively high pay to have been moreso luck rather than something that i was specifically pursuing).

So, actually, I probably have some similar errors in my ways in that there were a decent number of years that I did not really pursue making a lot of money.. just living within my means, but my means could have been higher if I had made more money during some of those years.


O.k.  Perhaps.


That might be helpful to point out the area of disagreement, if there is something besides my suggestion that one should not be 100% BTC, unless there is some quirky personal situation rationale for such.  


Cannot really disagree with that part.  Some amount of financial cushion does seem like a good thing to have.


Jbreher does seem to have a tendency to want to overly convolute matters, even though every once in a while he does make some decent points... When he gets ornery and if he is trying to defend BIG blocks or one of the bcashes, he does devolve into more tangling^tm and dangling^tm nonsense, though... which the vast majority of us here do seem to recognize that angle of the picnic bear.

FTFY

That's goofy-talk.

We do not go from less than 1% bitcoin adoption to world reserve currency status overnight.

If you want to invest 100% into bitcoin or take some other non-practical approach to bitcoin, then that is your choice.. you are likely going to get screwed here and there, because there are a variety of other assets and frequently it is helpful to be able to have other things that you are able to spend (such as fiat or various other ways of not having all your eggs in one volatile asset.   

I think it is better to go first steps first, which is get nocoiners off of zero, first.  99% of the world population owns absolutely no bitcoin.

You can make a shit ton of money by just having 10% of your value into bitcoin.

I see no reason to be attempting to push these matters onto people if they are not ready...

either they get it or they don't and the ones of us who recognize the matter of the value of bitcoin earlier are going to profit stupendously because we were able to see the value in bitcoin first and to act in the right direction, and we were also able to invest into it, before some of the dying dinosaurs like warren buffet or charles munger were able to recognize or appreciate the value...

We also saw the value in bitcoin instead of getting distracted by shitcoins.  A lot of folks are going to get distracted into shitcoins, and how you going to change that? I say, just let them fucking learn the hard way, just like a lot of us did.  They are NOT all of a sudden going to be bitcoin enlightened by having it forced upon them..  but they will eventually come to bitcoin, even if it takes one or two generation before the recognize the value of bitcoin over the various snakeoils that you are not going to stop.. and we do not even have the power to stop such snake oils whether we are referring to various shitcoins or various fiats and whatever other various other currency "innovations" that come in the coming years.
 


Personally, I do not agree with that approach.  Bitcoin allows us to commit to it, ideologically, and to live well at the same time.  It is one of those rare opportunities in life, and a lot of people have become rich as fuck by only having a reasonable amount in bitcoin and also having cash, too.

You are going to come off as a crazy fuck, if you are not somewhat allocated in cash too, and you also likely make yourself a target... but, hey, if you want to make yourself a target, that is up to you.

I am saying that there is no reason to die for the cause because you can get rich and you can support bitcoin.. no need to die for the cause, here.. unless you are merely suicidal (but that is not necessary.. as I already mentioned).


You do not need to convince any of us.

You should be protecting yourself though because none of us (or other random peeps on the internet) give any shits about you as much as you should be protecting yourself, psychologically and financially.



Yes.  People are going to consider you a weirdo... It is much easier to get along in society by being able to communicate with others and to build bonds rather than appearing like a weirdo.

So there is a need for balance.  So if you go out on a date, it is good to have money in order that you can eat the steak dinner and to be able to convince the chick to come back to your pad.


Ultimately, it is your choice regarding what level of balance you believe is good for you and what works for you to be able to achieve your personal objectives.

Personally, I think that it is better to have some balance.  If you are earning income in fiat, then you figure out what level of balancer that you need to have in fiat and what level in bitcoin.

If you are earning in bitcoin, then you may have to cash into fiat from time to time.  No one should be forced to be cashing out of either one at a time that is not of their own choosing but if you have everything in bitcoin, then you are likely going to be causing your own emergency situations, unless you have figure out every single place to go to be able to spend your BTC for housing, utilities, food, transportation, entertainment (and hookers, lambos and blow).  Even if you are moderate with your consumption, you still likely having regular living needs that cause regular expenses.

If you do not have that, then maybe you need to explain your situation a bit better... because we should be attempt to discuss these bitcoin balancing matters in generally applicable ways for normies rather than fanatical ways or ways that are quite peculiar to some kinds of weird situations, in my humble bumble opinion. 

True.  I started buying at the high in November 2013, so that first BTC that I bought was not consistently profitable until around March/April 2017 - around 40 months (3 1/4 years) later.

There are probably NOT very many people who would inject everything into an asset at the top - or at least I had not taken that approach, so even though my first BTC cost my $1,200, by the time early 2017 came along, my average price per BTC (counting all my BTC purchases) was less than $500 per BTC - even though my sim port hack situation in early 2017, caused my average price per BTC to go up to about $750 per BTC.

Long term conviction helps.  Not investing more than you can afford to lose helps (which might be another way of saying willingness to ride the investment to zero).  It also helps that ultimately the underlying asset did go back up in price... both above my average price per BTC ($500/$700) and also above the price of the first purchase ($1,200) - even though DCA'ing would not have required for BTC to go back above that original $1,200 price in order for the average cost per BTC of my whole investment to have turned into a profitable status anywhere above $500 or alternatively above $750 (if counting the cost of the hack).



Helps to have been in bitcoin for a few of the cycles, as you suggested, explorer..   so being in bitcoin for a few cycles seems to give more options in terms of profitability... but also there is a track record, too.. as you also acknowledge.


I suspect that $20k will be more like a knife through hot butter, as compared with $10k.

It's like the earlier cycle... there was more of a battle for $500 in late 2015 and early 2016 and $700 in mid and late 2016, than there was for $1,163 in early 2017.


That's what I am saying.

My understanding is that Op started this thread without knowing hardly any of the members to be merit sources, and included all of the members who had been sending the most merits with an objective that his formula would attempt to unambiguously determine which members were merit sources and which were not based on suspecting what would have been the airdrop amount and the amount of smerits that would have been generated by receiving merits. 

There were quite a few gaps in which information was knowable including some variability beyond the standard airdrop and the additional individual amount of merits that would have been airdropped based on member activity the year prior to the airdrop.

It did not hurt to continue to keep track of members who were suspected to be merit sources because they might later get proven to have been merit sources based on the criteria that was being watched.  Sure, of course, some members admitted that they were merit sources, but Op's formula did not depend on anyone telling him who were the merit sources, including theymos said that he was not going to tell.

Well, if the BTC price can stay between $9k and $11k for the next 6-9 months, I may start to reconsider my earlier assertion, start to become more comfortable in this price range and/or to change my current thinkenings on the topic.. I doubt it, but I might.. if there is a 6-9 month stickening to a somewhat $9k and $11k BTC price range.

Realistically, we have a BTC price battle going on (some might call it a war), whether you recognize such battle (war) or not.

We have largely achieved a baby level of BTC adoption at the retail level (as you seem to recognize such low level of adoption, too) and we have a quite a few BIGGER players that are just starting to dabble in BTC (and a few of them recently transparent about such dabblings - and front running of BTC measures).  BTC is immature as fuck, but you have BIG players messing around with it.  How you going to achieve stability from those kinds of circumstances  - seems like pie in the sky wishenings, to me.

Furthermore we have the decently convincing and foundationally solid BTC price prediction models of: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on metcalfe and networking principles.  

Yeah, who gives any shits about any of these BTC price prediction models or any other BTC price prediction models.. they are just hypotheticals, right?...

We should get real and figure out that the currently convincing BTC price prediction models have some power behind them.  They are not merely abstract blah blah blah.. hopenings... as some would like to frame them in such a way...

In other words, we should not be ignoring the power of such BTC price prediction models, especially the combination of the three that I mentioned above and creating our own pie in the sky framework of "I am comfortable here at this price because it feels good." blah blah blah..

King daddy gives less than two shits if you, nully wully #nohomo, feels good.  

There are various fundamental principles that provide bases for our currently convincing and solid BTC price prediction models - that largely would become problematic if BTC prices were to get stuck for some strange reason in our current level for any significant period of time..

Yeah, perhaps stagnate around $300k to $500k in 4-6 years might make a wee bit more sense as some kind of round number to get stuck, but anyhow, around $10k seems like out-of-touchness with regards to what actual asset we are dealing with in the real world rather than some kind of fantasy preferences of stability that is stuck in some range that is practical and lower than our previous 2017 bubble...blah blah blah.  Yeah, in 2017, $19,666 was not sustainable, but we are not in 2017 no more, Dorothy.



I don't buy it.  You might want to consult with Torque about this manipulation within a range (around round numbers) angle, though.  Like I already mentioned, if BTC prices are still floating around $9k to $11k 6-9 months from now, I might start to reconsider.. even though such a scenario still might ONLY be a result of short term luck rather than within any kind of meaningful, likely or plausible scenario that NOW should be contemplated, even though out of the blue, it could end up happening.. ..  


Well sure, and as you know, we have already had a correction that has been playing out for over 2.5 years.  

I am not trying to impose any of my values on king daddy because I do not give any shits if it just appreciates 5% per year or even if king daddy were to get stuck between $5k and $6k for the next couple of years (of course, financially and psychologically, I would prefer that BTC prices were not to go down to that price range, but I am also financially and psychologically prepared for such a possibility, too), but I just don't think that either flat or going down to $5k-$6k are likely scenarios under our current market circumstances, just like it is not likely to get stuck anywhere below the previous 2017 ATH (of $19,666) for any significant period of time that might last more than another year to 18 months...  

Sure, there are likely going to be some surprises along the way of BTC getting to its previous ATH and surpassing the previous ATH and also getting to some new blow off top (presuming that another blow off top is in BTC's cards), and sure, we might get stuck in some price zones that seem to defy logic, but manipulators will try these kinds of BTC price manipulations and even be successful for a period of time and maybe for a period of time that is longer and lower than any of us would prefer, until they are not...

Ultimately, I just cannot give much weight to presumptions that you seem to want to employ, nullius, that seem to want to presume that there is NO kind of real battle (or war) going on in bitcoinlandia in terms of disagreements about where BTC's price is and where its price is going... and these kinds of ongoing battles do not contribute to your preference for periods of stable prices and presuming that BTC is even capable of stable prices at this point in its relatively short life and given the power of its fundamentals..  Do you realize that BTC is a paradigm shifting technology that has never been experienced before?  Its a once in a life time disrupter, like the invention of the wheel.. or something equivalent...

Anyhow,.. here and there and at kind of unexpected place locations along the way, we might get some seeming periods of stability, but $10k just does not seem to be any kind of plausible one at this time and in my current thinkenings about potentially plausible scenarios.  Sure, $10k would have seemed plausible a year ago, as a potential spot to get stuck for 6 months or longer, but we are NO longer at that place in BTC's price cycle... so there would be some kind of need to overcome a variety of factors underlying BTC price prediction models in order to enter into any kind of meaningful price stability in this $10k arena.



Sure.  We are in the midst of a BTC price correction, currently.  Whether you label our current location as a 18% correction from $12,000 or a 25% correction from $12,500, it is still a BTC price correction, so then a question becomes how low and for how long will we go.. We could stop here and resume up, or we could get a 30% to 60% correction that lasts a few months. I don't proclaim to really have many ideas about where we are going.. even though i have a hunch that flat is not very likely at this point.

We could also say that we are in a 50% correction from December 2017, but that seems a bit too zoomed out, too.

I believe that it is largely reasonable to to suggest that the December 2017 peak of $19,666 resulted in a one year correction down to $3,124, and then a kind of flat and uncertainty period until about April 1, 2019 and we were confirmed to be out of that 2018 bear market as of May 2019 while we were in the midst of the 3 month price bounce from $4,200 to $13,880...

In the meantime, ever since July 2019, we have had a variety of BTC price corrections and also taking a while to get back to the late June 2019 highpoint of $13,880, yet along the way, none of those BTC price corrections, or even taking them as a whole have removed BTC from being confirmed to be in a bull market since May 2019.. which had started in December 2018.. even though we had not realized such bull market until May 2019-ish (of course, some people realized such bull market earlier and some people deny that we went into a bull market, and they can all go fuck themselves..  each and every one of them.... hahahaha).

Million dollar question remains, where are we at currently and where are we likely to go, which seems to be partly determined by figuring out the framework that you would like to apply, and seems to be largely addressed by the combination of the current BTC price prediction models as I already mentioned.  

Furthermore, surely we can surely experience UPs, DOWNs and SIDEWAYSes at various points along the way... and you, nullius, seem to be speculating that $10k could be a potential sticking point along this path, while I am not.  Does it matter?  I am not sure.  

For any of us, we may make a variety of tweakenings of our BTC strategies depending where the BTC price is at, how long we expect the BTC price to be here and where we expect the BTC price to be going.  

Personally, since I have largely put myself into a kind of maintenance approach to my BTC portfolio since about early 2017, I do not make very many changes to much if anything that I do in respect to BTC, so surely sometimes I might have some disagreements with other persons regarding what to do, because I am in a different place with my particular HODLings.  For example for me, if the BTC price goes up, I sell a bit of it (and i have been employing this approach since BTC prices were at $250 in late 2015), and if the BTC price goes down, I buy a bit.  Sure, I might tweak a bit along the way, too, but in about early 2017, I considered that my BTC approach had migrated from BTC accumulation to maintenace (they are not absolute categories but points on a spectrum).

Accordingly, currently if some circumstances in my cashflow were to change, such as I were to win the lottery, I might inject part of such materialized hypothetical winnings into BTC which I consider to be a tweak based on changed circumstances.  Furthermore, if I were to come across some decent sized unexpected expense - such as my car gets burned in a BLM riot, then I might withdraw a bit of BTC to buy another car...  In any event, such tweakenings of my strategy are NOT very dependent upon where the BTC price is going while we are in our current area of $4k to $30k - maybe some bigger adjustments would be made to my particular system if it appeared that we would be going outside of that range any time soon.

When I was in a BTC accumulation phase, the way that I played with those cashflow issues would have placed more emphasis on making sure that I make progress towards reaching my BTC accumulation goals - which was more aimed at increasing the amount of BTC, rather than my current status that remains o.k. with something that approximates maintaining either a similar amount of BTC stash ... again on a discretionary spectrum rather than absolutes.


Sure, you, nullius, might be in a different situation (as compared with me) in terms of adjustments that you might make to your system or your BTC strategy if you were able to consider where the BTC price might be going in the coming year, perhaps?  
 I recognize that you seemed to battle me, a bit, in terms of giving credence to the liquidation mode, so maybe you would be somewhere more receptive to BTC accumulation and BTC maintenance and perhaps deemphasizing anything in connection with liquidation.. perhaps?  (especially since you may be purportedly attempting to maximize your BTC accumulation in order to be able to pass it on to a bunch of likely to be undeserving snot-nosed nulliuses  ... hahahahahaha )




King daddy does not give any shits about what you want.

Anyhow, if you recall that November/December 2017 price peak, it took quite more than a year to build up to such price peak, so the November/December 2017 price peak did not just happen out of the blue...

Of course, this time around we have differing macro-circumstances than we had in 2017.  In 2017, we had forkenings and forkening threads, and we had ICOs, and surely some of our current happenings in the broader space could end up having similar effects on BTC, but king daddy is going to do what king daddy is going to do.  

Whether it is time to go up now (and get some unsustainable pumpening), or or whether it takes one year or two years from here to peak, it is not as if any of us can prescribe BTC's price path to be gradual rather than explosive, even when explosive seems to be more within the cards of how these kinds of matters play anyhow.  Haven't you noticed?  Seems to me that whales have a tendency to manipulate BTC prices for too long and for too low, and what ends up happening is that BTC prices explode... and no one can really stop it, and perhaps some of that explosiveness comes from some players manipulating BTC prices too low and for too long, no?

Even if we were to proclaim that we would prefer that king daddy follows such a mild and gently path, I believe that NOT even  the whales have such capabilities to control king daddy in such mild and gentle paths forward.  Furthermore, even if Torque and some other members might conjecture that the whole damned BTC price trajectory is orquestrate by some supposedly existing powers that be entities, the odds seem quite unlikely that we are going to experience smooth and gentle BTC price movements, even if all of us get into a circle and chant for it.  BTC no work like dat.



It is what it is, no?

Of course, there may be some of us that could go out there and attempt to build and contribute to the BTC development direction that we want to happen, but in the end, we cannot really stop what is causing the BTC price to increase or decrease (use cases, speculation or whatever), and surely there can be some financialization aspects that contribute to adoption and upwards price pressures that might not exactly be healthy for BTC, but financialization tools can be used in part of the games that are attempted to be played by BIGGER players.. especially if they believe that they can make money or even attempt to achieve other objectives by playing around with such financialization tools include engaging in fractional reserve (rehypothecation) practices.  There are likely goals to financially profit from BTC manipulation and there are also goals to destroy BTC, if that were possible.


Sure, loss of confidence in fiat does seem to be one of our current BTC price pressure factors.. but surely there are no one cause situations in bitcoinlandia that cause BTC prices to go up, down or sideways.  There are a variety of factors, and sometimes we will witness that BTC prices will move in the exact opposite direction of what we might have had expected and end up staying in some kind of less than preferred price range for a period of time that is much longer than we might have thought reasonable or sustainable ... .



You going to go out there and stop speculators?  How?

With any network effect, speculation is one of the first use cases of any asset, whether we are referring to bitcoin or any other asset.  

Speculation is not going to go away, even if other use cases develop around it, and even if the asset becomes more mature.  Are you trying to suggest that bitcoin is too mature for speculation?  Bitcoin is just a baby, so speculation is going to exist for a long ass time in bitcoin, whether we like it or not.  Manipulation, too.  So best to just deal with such speculation, manipulation and volatility rather than wish it away.

You know about the 7 network effects that are outlined by Trace Mayer, right?  Even though Trace Mayer might currently be persona non grata, there continues to be a lot of discussions and articles around the seven network effects that he described in earlier articles and interviews that can be Googled to look up a variety of such articles that flesh out those seven network effects.. and speculation tends to be amongst the first of the network effects to develop.. and it is not like speculation is going to go away once it starts.

Here's one rendition of the seven network effects - even though they can be fleshed out in a variety of other ways:

>>>>>>The 7 network effects of Bitcoin are:

Speculation — Speculators are attracted to this new asset class by its novelty and high volatility.

Merchant Adoption — Merchants are attracted by the profit margin increases which Bitcoin enables, namely: avoiding credit card fees and eliminating chargebacks.

Consumer Adoption — Consumers are attracted by discounts (a la Purse for saving on Amazon), increased transaction privacy, and greater economic sovreignty: e.g., the ability to buy restricted or otherwise unavailable goods.

Security — Insofar as the system is secured by miners and decentralized by nodes the network can be considered trustworthy. Likewise, as more speculators, merchants, and consumers come on board, the price increases and miners are incentivized to participate, further securing the network.

Developer Mindshare - Developers are attracted to Bitcoin because there is money in it, and because its open protocol and codebase enable permissionless innovation.

Financialization - Fintech firms and venture capitalists are investing in the Bitcoin ecosystem not only to facilitate main street investor speculation, but also because its programmable nature allows for the transfer and registry of assets of all types: titles, stocks, securities, etc.

Adoption as a World Reserve Currency - While the previous network effects build upon each other and help to raise its market capitalization, developers continue to enhance Bitcoin's scalability and utility. Eventually all transactions may be settled on the blockchain. Adoption as a World Reserve Currency may happen through the gradual recognition of Bitcoin as a technically superior form of money. More likely, however, is uptake resulting from: A) continued crises in other fiat currencies, or B) so called "speculative attacks" against weaker currencies, leading in either case to Hyperbitcoinization.<<<<<<<



I did not characterize our $10k range as "uncomfortable" in terms of any kind of personal preference.

I only characterized our current $10k price range as "uncomfortable" in the sense that I don't expect such price range to last for very long, but whatever, if such price range does end up lasting, I don't really care either.  It is not like I am betting on some other direction.  I just consider stability in BTC prices as a lame ass expectation because it remains unlikely, even if such stability does coincidentally happen in BTC from time to time (like a kind of temporary truce).

Sure macro factors could have some kind of an affect on bitcoin, but i doubt that bitcoin needs retail to be ready, willing and able to buy bitcoin in order for our next ATH to be reached and exceeded.

Yeah, it's possible that the end of the year might be a bit too soon, but in bitcoinlandia, there can be a bit of relishing in doing the unexpected too, which causes shorts to continue to get rekkt when they continue to get placed, while the BTC price keeps going up.. Are we ready for such a move?  i don't know... but I surely would not be ruling out such a move, merely based on some kind of concern that macro-factors are not ready... People are not ready.. wait bitcoin, wait.... Bitcoin gives no shits about waiting, and small enough players can end up pushing bitcoin up, even if people (retail or whatever) are not ready... In other words, they become ready as they see the price going up from $40k to $100k, and then they start buying, right before the dump (or maybe more PC to call it a correction?). 

Do we end up correcting in the vicinity of $100k or $300k or some other location? and how long does it take to get to the point that correction ends up happening can frequently end up as somewhat surprises, even though such BTC price moves are still within a variety of relatively convincing and already known BTC price prediction models... the specifics are merely probabilities rather than precisions -even if some folks misinterpret them in such precision ways.

Sure, anything could happen.. up, down or sideways.


What do you mean by "one more time"?

Maybe we are going to get stuck here for a few more weeks?

I have my doubts about getting stuck in this particular zone for much longer because this price floating around $10k feels a bit uncomfortable (or is the word unsustainable?).. and what is going on in shitcoinlandia?  Isn't that continuing to have some affect on BTC's ability to stay in one place?  and the macro environment, seems to have some nervousness, too...

I know bitcoin likely does not give too many shit about these various macro-factors, but in the short term, seems difficult to sustain any kind of flatness, even if we never know for sure regarding how long are we going to be here in the $10k range.... in bitcoinlandia.



As I type, do we either have a triple or a quadruple bottom, or maybe we have to make up some other kind of visual because these bottoms are starting to blend.

Maybe we have a blended bottom, currently?

It's messy out there boyz... be careful:





Lots of hopium in that one.


Never thought of it like that.

It's not looking good, boyz.    

Ultimately, you seem to be both a newbie and overinvested that you are so nervous about price drops and/or that you did not cash out some of your apparently overinvested status.

If you hold for the long term then you can just cash out a bit here and there along the way and not worry about it.  One of the problems is to overinvest, which merely causes you to get nervous.

Seems to me that 4 years from now, the price is much likely to be higher rather than lower than our current price, even likely that there will be some decent price appreciation along the way, even though we may have ups and downs along the way, but also seems to be a better place to hold 1% to 10% (or even more) of your investment value rather than in traditional investments... talking longer time horizon.

In other words, if BTC prices go down from here, either holding or buying more seems to be the more prudent approach.

Of course, holding in the event that you are over invested, or buying more in the event that you have not over invested.

Even though it is NOT a good time to sell, if you are nervous, of course you could still shave a bit off of your overinvested amount in order to hedge in the event that BTC prices go down rather than up.

One of the tricks of gaining and maintaining a BTC position is to be both psychologically and financially prepared for price moves in either direction - because sometimes the price direction can end up going against you, at least in the short term.

That's why some diptwats are putting tampon dispensers in formerly called men's bathrooms.

What a world.







What a world.

 





I am thinking of NOT getting a boat.

I consider that "better off" in terms of buying on dips and DCA buying is a matter of psychological and financial rather than mere financial.... so sure, you can always go back and second guess yourself in terms of BTC price movements that you could have or should have seen.. or maybe times in which you bought too much too soon, and you should have waited for more dip.

I don't know what you are talking about regarding $10k.

Sure, currently, it seems as if $10k is a decent bottom, but we also thought the same thing in November 2018 and even at some later times regarding $6k being the bottom... It was the bottom, until it was not.

I never proclaim to know exactly good buying points in terms of them being universally good, even if there may well be a good probability that a price, such as $10k is good at this particular moment (until it is not... )


One good thing about exstasie seems to be that he is more than willing to share various aspects regarding his attempted analysis, and he has a decent tendency to flesh it out.

I doubt that it is fair to put him exactly in a category regarding that he is more willing to buy on the way up, because he surely seems ready and willing to attempt to time waves, and surely way the hell more willing to make bets in that regard than I am.



Your use of the term bearish seems different than mine, even though I will concede that we seem to be in a correction that is within a largely bull market and a largely bull asset.  I have asserted that our bull market had gotten tentatively confirmed as of about May 2019, and we have not bounced out of such bull market, even though we have had quite a few decently long and decently deep corrections subsequent to such confirmed bull market.

But hey, whatever, I might be quibbling over semantics more than anything, even though I am surely not going to take for granted that we are necessarily anywhere near finishing our current correction - even though as we continue to go back and forth in terms of attempting to figure out where the BTC price might go in the short term, the longer term bottom of the 200 week moving average continues to move up, and currently that bottom has just passed above $6,600, so surely any of us longer term investors should be feeling good about the ongoing movement up of the 200 WMA... and some confidence in continuing to accumulate BTC and buying on dips, as that bottom keeps moving up (and of course hoping that it continues to move up in the future, too). .. and even more comfortable, if our average cost per BTC happens to be less than the 200WMA price.

Also, currently the Mayer multiple is at 1.15 as I type, and the average is 1.36, so it is slightly below average, which also could be a signal to buy or that the BTC price has decent chances of moving up.

https://mayermultiple.info/

I thought that picnic tables were for partying.

You are the exact opposite of a party.... aka no fun.   

I agree completely.

The name should be changed to tangle.

From here on out, tangle should be the correct nomenclature for that formerly known as chain.