I hate to beat a dead horse  (ok.. I don't mind beating a dead horse.. I admit it)

BUT

something is telling me that if you need bitcoin to reach $1million per coin in order to reach fuck you status, something is NOT quite right with your approach.

#justsaying






Regarding saying fuck you with out consequences... I hope that pregnant lady slaps you in the face and wrestles you to the ground.


 

#justsaying

 




Unless you screw up by believing that you have to cash out into something more "stable" such as fiat.

Here's your chart.. TheRealOne.

That chart does not invoke inspiration regarding either where we are at or where we might be going.

Maybe you can explain yourself a bit better .. provide some analysis, perhaps?

Gosh Biodom.  Once you reach your wealth accumulation target (whether that is $2 million or $10 million or some other amount) that you believe is sufficiently comfortable to preserve your previous accustomed standard of living, then if you want to bulk (rather than incrementally) diversify your BTC portion into some other assets then you are more than free to accomplish those kinds of discretionary diversifications.

I was not even suggesting only one method, but I guess I was still attempting to focus on how the income that could be generated from bitcoin, since the last time I checked I thought that we were in a bitcoin thread, but it still does not even necessarily mean that any guy should be going complete bitcoin.. that seems to be far from what a vast majority of us regular bitcoiners in the WO have been advocating, including yours truly, and you should realize that about me by now, especially if you torture ur lil selfie by reading the whole thing from time to time.   


I am not forgetting taxes, just like I am not forgetting various other expenses or other income sources that guys might have.  As we know some expenses and even some income sources are necessities and some are discretionary and some fall in a kind of middle ground.

I did not go through all of the expenses and possible sources of income because I figured that guys could do some of those particularized tailoring for themselves. 

In regards to taxes, specifically, Capital gains taxes are 15% in some jurisdictions, which tends to be less than regular income taxes, and presumably if you have a cost basis, then the whole $80k per year would not be profits (most of us are not that lucky in terms of our costs per BTC).. and I hope that guys should already be accounting for a variety of those kinds of related matters when they figure out how much they need per month to live and how much of a float they feel that they need (including that the amount and the float will likely change from time to time, too).

Seems that I am starting with some relatively straight-forward calculations, and if you believe that you need more than $80k per year to live in terms of that passive income, then you can adjust the amount that you feel that you need to a level that would be more appropriate for your targeted life-style. 

By the way, I recall that I had said to you previously, Biodom, that it seems to me that you seem inclined to talk yourself out of reaching fuck you status.. and sure, each of has our penchants and you do not even need to accept my hypothetical levels, and surely I understand there are individualized balancing of concerns and I have sympathies if any guy who ends up pulling the fuck you lever too early while at the same time sympathies for guys who could pull the fuck you lever, but instead choose to work for the man until they drop dead from stress or otherwise getting beaten up on a regular basis while considering working for a living to be "enjoyable."     

Presenting the various scenarios and even attempting to plan should help guys to engage in their own particularized planning and reaching conclusions regarding thresholds and even important considerations that they can throw into the mix here, too.

I will concede Philip that there could be several ways of getting at both $2million as the starting out presumption principle, and also $6,666.67 per month as the projected income from that amount.  Sometimes I write  about this "fuck you" status so frequently in this thread and then in other places, and then I do not always show my work very well.  

Of course, I am probably no saint, either because it's not like I had the "fuck you" status formula sorted out in my head from the start; I kind of adapted such fuck you status formula, to some extent based on writing it down a few times and also from some of the feedback that guys were giving about what I had previously written.

I will concede that your formula might work too, but surely I can see that you are using different presumptions in order to get at the $6,666.67 income from accumulating such $2million principle (and you end up adjusting it to $3million.. all fair in love and war, but surely a differing set of assumptions and I don't even believe that some of your assumptions are very practical when I really look them over).  

In any event, let me try to explain some of the presumptions underlying terms of my formula.

First, with the actual $2 million as the target. I recognize that there are guys with higher and lower standards of living needs and I just thought that $2 million would be a great reasonable compromise position that guys can work with.  Some guys have suggested that they need way more (like $10 million or $40 million or some bullshit like that), and sometimes I just want stick with more basics and even appreciate how much power comes, even from a mere $2 million in principle because actual passive income tends to be a very real powerful thing.  

Think about it.  With passive income, we do not have to do shit (except maybe just keep track of our accounts), and we have a passive income coming in of $6,666.67 per month.  

Of course, on the other side of the goal of the $2 million principle amount, there were guys who were saying that they were not aspiring to that much because NOT only their needs were NOT very high or that they were living in an area of the world in which the cost of living was quite humble.  Even $500k was put out there as a kind of reasonable target for some guys to reach fuck you status - and surely, I am not going quibble exactly if guys can really be comfortable in their own skin with a mere $1,666.67 per month of passive income, and I surely know a quite a few people (even in the USA) who live off of way smaller amounts than $1,666.67 per month.  

So, of course the target amount of the principle can be adjusted based on a variety of considerations, including if some guys might be old as fuck already, and if they do not already have something close to $500k as their principle, they do not have a lot of time to work towards building the amount that they can aspire to have, so they likely have to work with the amount that they have rather than expecting that amount to go shooting up all of a sudden under some kind of miracle projections... because even though we get all kinds of get-rich-quick stories in the crypto space, one of the ways to actually lose your principle is to end up buying into some of those get-rich-quick schemes rather than working with what you got and trying to preserve it, build it reasonably and even count your blessings for any kind of price appreciation that you are able to achieve (and can lock-in) that is greater than your previously hopefully modestly designed principle building trajectory.

Second:how to calculate passive income from $2 million principle
I am using a relatively conservative traditional 4% formula for the presumptions that if you are putting your capital to work in a variety of ways, you should be able to maintain the value of the capital by withdrawing about 4% per year in perpetuity because you are able to find ways to earn at least that amount of 4% per year on the principle that you have.  

Don't get me wrong in regards to bitcoin.  With bitcoin, you do not need to put your bitcoins anywhere except for in your own private wallet in order to anticipate that they are going to appreciate on the value of your BTC on average 4% per year.  In other words, you do not need to increase the size of your BTC stash by 4% per year in order for your BTC stash to become worth at least 4% more in value per year  (remember that bitcoin is designed to pump forever, and we have already witnessed way greater than 4% per year gains on our bitcoin, so the presumptions of continued 4% per year gains in value seem decently conservative),

In other words, I am presuming that you can comfortably withdraw 4% per year from your bitcoin stash, and your bitcoins on average are going to price appreciate at least an average of 4% per year.  

So with $6,666.67 per month, I am not even talking about getting into withdrawing principle.  $2 million * 4% = $80k / 12 = $6666.67 per month.

Now if you are not in bitcoin, and you are in other assets besides bitcoin, you may need to put those other assets to work in order to ensure that they are earning on average of at least 4% per year, and there is nothing wrong with having other assets, even if their market performance is likely going to vary from one another to some degree.  

Also, my earlier response already accounted for the need to be pricing your assets at their potential extreme bottoms in order to maintain the bottom of whatever you our fuck you status happens to be, even though when you incrementally cash out (or make withdrawals from your accounts), whether bi-weekly, monthly, quarterly bi-annually, annually or some other increment, you are going to be cashing out value at the then current price of the various assets that are put to work in differing ways.  

If you have all of your assets in cash, then cash is likely not working for you, and in the coming years might be working against you in terms of value appreciation.  There are few asset managers who are going to be suggesting to keep all your assets in cash or to NOT have them working, unless you are almost dead and they are cashing out quickly, including cashing out principle too or some other shorter term horizon to extract all of the value from the portfolio of assets.

Let's say for example, you have the 307.7 BTC that I had already suggested from my earlier post to be today's minimum $2 million value (based on the $6,500 BTC bottom price $2million/$6,500=307.7BTC), and you feeling that you want to be in fuck you status merely because you have reached your BTC accumulation goal, and why not start now, especially since a 4% withdrawal rate is presumed to be sustainable forever anyhow, and if your fuck you status goal has been reached, then there should be no better time than the present to start fuck you status living, right?

Anyhow, you decide to start implementing your cashing out plan immediately, so maybe you want to cash out half a year's allocation... just to have some float because you do not really know where the BTC price is going to go in the next 6 months, so you could decide to cash out $6,666 per month x 6 = $40k (3.42 BTC) (current price $11,700) or you could cash out 2%, which would be 6.154 BTC, which would be currently about $72k.  

So, sure there is a decently large difference in terms of how much you would like to cash out, and some discretion in terms of how much you cash out at any given time, which might put you in more difficult times at the next time that you decide to cash out some more income from your BTC stash.  So you would be in a different place if BTC prices were at $17,250 in 6 months or maybe BTC prices go down to the projected bottom around $6,500, and you can decide if you are going to cash out an additional 2% of your remaining BTC stash for the year, and your total stash would be somewhere between 301.546 BTC and 304.28 BTC depending upon which option you had exercised in the withdrawal from 6 months earlier in the year.  

Of course, in some ways, you could make the whole matter simpler in terms of your not having to worry about the BTC price if you just cash out every month at .33% * 307.7 BTC (currently $11,880 = 1.01541 BTC) or every two weeks at .167% * 307.7 BTC (currently $6,012 = .513859 BTC).  Simpler in terms of not calculating BTC price might be easier than the accounting that might come from more frequent BTC cashenings.  

Another alternative would be to just cash out $3,333 per two weeks (currently .28487179 BTC) or $6667 per month (currently .56982906 BTC) and don't worry about the BTC price, unless the price happens to go below the $6,500 theoretical bottom that puts your capital below the $2 million fuck you status... if you have changes in your principle and your bottom price presumptions, then you might have to titrate down the amounts of your withdrawals until either the BTC price goes up or some other ways to get you back into your target "fuck you" status.

Also, as you continue to withdraw BTC from your stash, then of course, you may have to monitor its value from time to time to make sure that it's value does not go outside of your parameters, and there can be advantages and disadvantages of holding a variety of assets, rather than just BTC... which most wealthy people do not have their assets all tied into one category, but surely there are some who do do that, and have a large wealth cushion, too.



Well, if you decide to completely diversify out of bitcoin into cash, then that would be something that I would not be recommending, and I doubt that there are very many folks who manage their portfolios by diversifying into cash unless they are planning to die soon or to completely liquidate their principle but sure some people are going to feel better to go to a passive income status based on their value held in fiat rather than having it either in bitcoin or some combination of assets.


Your formulas are seeming unrealistic, but I suppose if you are going to go totally to cash then maybe you would need way more BTC in order to feel comfortable converting it all over to cash?  I am not suggesting to do anything like that, and so guys can be their own worst enemy sometimes, but hey people are going to calculate value and what risks that they feel comfortable with in a variety of ways.  

I had gotten out of my attachment to getting into fiat quite a while back, but I understand the inclination to want to get into fiat.. it is likely a real concern that people have when they are calculating what to do and how much they believe that they need to accomplish their various financial and psychological comfort level objectives.



I really do not believe that you need that many coin, especially if $2 million principle is your goal, and like I mentioned, if you are calculating a BTC price bottom as currently in the $6,500 arena (the current 200 week moving average), then that is 307.7 BTC, currently.  

I believe that it would be completely silly to cash them into fiat right away, and if you start to live off of 4% per year, then you can start right now when your money is working for you, and of course, we should be able to presume a 4% per year return from bitcoin.. I think that a 4% per year return from bitcoin on average is reasonable and it is even conservative (and remember the calculating of the 4% per year should merely be the moving up of the bottom which is currently at about $6,500 - and we also know that the current BTC spot price moves all over the place in the short term, but the spot price is not the one that we monitor for the withdrawing of the 4% per year.. so long as we are above the bottom price, presumably going up 4% per year, too).

Whether you are 63 years old, 40 years old or 75 years old, you can still make the same presumptions.  Of course, the younger you are, the more that you want to make sure that your presumptions are solid and that they are playing out because you do not want to be digging into your principle if you are younger.  When you get older, there is likely less risk to actually starting to dig into your principle because you are likely anticipating digging into your principle, at some point anyhow... but the 4% per year is a young man's game and should be a perpetually sustainable game, once you start it so long as all of your underlying presumptions are correct.  

Anyhow, cashing out at 4% per year could be measured as 1% per quarter or .33% per month, .167% every 2 weeks.. or some other timeline equivalent measurement that is comfortable for you.

Hopefully, I clarified what I was trying to say rather than making matters more complicated.

But does your spending really count, AlcoHoDL?

I bet that you really spent and replaced... those lilly corns,  AmiNOTkoreck?

I am thinking further.. not specifically about you, AlcoHoDL, but maybe none of us really ever arrives at any kind of perfect "fuck you" status?

We are all just fuck you status wannabes?

 

I might be exaggerating a bit because even if none of us would reach a kind of dictator of an island status, but there are graduation of options within fuck you status, too.

Remember mindrust said something like, "who needs to be rich anyhow, these days?"  The world is fucked with a virus and multiple travel and consumption restrictions, so where you going to spend all of that "on paper" wealth?  In other words, to some extent mindrust was proclaiming that there might not be any value in being wealthy.

Ok..  we do not need to go that far (such as mindrust) in our thinking to realize that wealth is still going to give more options than if NOT having wealth, right?   

Don't get me wrong, because I am also NOT suggesting that guys have to reach some extremely exorbitant level of wealth before they can either pull a kind of fuck you lever or to proclaim that they are in a kind of fuck you status, even if they choose to continue to work (hopefully as something that they really want to do rather than have to do).

Let's say that a guy is not really going to feel comfortable with achieving fuck you status until the value of all of his potentially income producing assets (or quasi-liquid) assets are  securely in thee $2million of total value region (for a presumably $6,667 per month passive income).  Of course, he could diversify out of corn.. or he can keep a decent chunk in corn, but try to consider what the BTC bottom might be?  

Recently, haven't we had been using the 200 week moving average as a kind of bottom for the BTC price, which would be around $6,500, currently.  

So, yeah if $2million is your fuck you status level, you better have 307.7 BTC or the equivalent of that in BTC and other assets (considering what the bottoms of those other assets might be, too).  A question might be whether $2million is really the necessary minimum or would such fuck you status wannabe peep be able to be o.k. with $1million.. which yeah, is half the quantity of expected passive income of $3,333 rather than $6,667 per month.

We should be capable of figuring out these kinds of things for our lil selfies, including having a financial/psychological cushion that is NOT too unreasonable that will still allow us to pull the "fuck you" lever at a time in our lives that we should be able to still enjoy it while trying to appreciate what real world factors we are dealing with, including known, unknowns and unknown unknowns.

Roach's mistakes were largely in mid 2016 when he sold all his BTC in the $700 arena, and patted himself on the back for being such a genius... which likely did seem to last for a decent number of months while BTC prices had downfalls and even relatively flat (only slow appreciation through the remainder of 2016) and barely got back above $700 until the end of 2017...

But then Roach stuck with the bitcoin is returning to sub $500 narrative.. he was stuck and could not get out of that mindset... and he seemed smart enough, so at some point, we would have speculated that he would realize that some of his presumptions were not correct.. the stubborn bastard...

and yeah, perhaps reveling in PMs currently, with a bit of a 55% price appreciation in the past 16 months or so that might not end soon, even though many of us bitcoiners realize that the gold price "boom" is largely just getting them back to 2011 gold prices, and sure they may well get some additional gold price appreciation, and sure a lot of peeps are excited about gold, currently, but really should be difficult to have confidence in gold.. whether verifiability, portability or even liquidation avenues... there might be some legit places to take a few coins or even some bars, but seems a bit  problematic - even if Armageddon really does come.

Probably one of the most difficult things to attempt to accomplish is the early on balancing of how much a BTC accumulator really can afford to invest in BTC.. and once that is done, and decided to thereby largely just let that value ride during accumulation phases, while not getting psyched out be short term value drops, even if they might be in the 85% arena.

For example, if you were in a BTC accumulation phase when the price was $10k to $19k in late 2017, then why would you not continue to be in a BTC accumulation phase during 2018, 2019 and 2020 when we had extensive periods below $10k and also a lot of time below $8k, too.

So, various short term periods of difficulties might even come within the BTC accumulation period while BTC prices are seeming to be all over the damned place.. - all the way from $3k to $19,666 within the past 3 years, and much of that time below $10k.

Once you get passed the BTC accumulation phase, then hopefully, your BTC holdings would largely be "in profits" then the question of shaving off a bit here or there should be easier - even though as vapourminer points out, there is a kind of "feeling in the air" that the current BTC price might be a weeeee bit undervalued, given current market circumstances.. causing additional hesitation to shave off a bit of BTC profits.

I am speculating a bit (and even partly on personal experience) that shaving off a few profits here and there does become easier and easier the higher the level of profits in which a HODLers BTC stash stands.  To take extremes, if the BTC profits are merely in the less than 50% arena, then there may well be a decent amount of hesitancy, but when profits start to get into the supra 10x arena, hesitancy likely becomes less and less the higher the level of "in profits" are the cashed out corns.

Gosh, when I was younger.. in my 20s, I was NOT hardly thinking about cashing out of anything for 30 plus years.. and just accumulate, accumulate, and sure I would get forced to cash out a bit here and there when I did not manage my cashflows well enough (and of course, my cashflows were much smaller back in the day).. anyhow, it does seem to get a whole hell f a lot easier with the passage of time and one of the reasons that a four year minimum investment timeline seems to be amongst the basics of building wealth in the corns asset class...

Of course if the BTC price moves down rather than up or it has some price peaks in the middle, there still remains a need to keep an eye on the prize in terms of really acknowledging and practicing what phase you are in.. and if you are young (should I go so bold as to say under 40), it is quite likely that you are continuing to be in an accumulation phase unless you have already reached "fuck you" status, which would be a pretty BIG ass accomplishment for any peeps under 40 to bring those kinds of changes in the dynamics regarding where they are at.

Actually, one of the problems that I believe exist with the young whipper snappers, maybe even moreso in the crypto (including bitcoin, too) space is that they believe that they have reached fuck you status before they have actually reached such status... hahahahaha... and there can be some BIG ASS reminders of that during high asset volatility periods (especially when asset price bottoms seem to fall out.. even if just for short periods of time).

Thanks for taking one for team HODL.   

Did not know V8 was so cccccuuuuuttttteeeee!!!!

I am starting to NOT like you.



Especially if you are correct, too often.


That being said:  I would not mind seeing some chipdip for when we poke above $12k, again.

 

One way to screw up an otherwise lovely vacation.  

The initial claims that you made, Torque, that were being criticized by nutildah related to how you were proclaiming that David Portnoy was a wall street plant, or something like that, and so the world trade center conspiracy theories seem to be a bit of a deflection of your original claim(s).

Sure, even I did not really agree with the initial strength of nutildah's criticisms, but instead of perhaps attempting to work with nutildah's criticism and attempt to qualify your initial statements a bit better, you doubled down on some other variation of ridiculousness and thereafter distracted from the original claim with the mostly off-topic world trade center baloney... PS now I see that nutildah is pursuing the WTC angle, so whatever.. it's like a stream of consciousness matter, and who can follow anyhow, even active participants... 

Anyhow, some of your claims about Portnoy were not very bad.. until you started doubling down on ridiculous....  


#nohomo

It is possible that you might be correct, toxicmoxic.      


#nohomo

Wojak?  Is that you?

When is the purported new forum software coming?

Perhaps another nailbiter, no?  The next (as I type) 3.71666667 hours (but who's counting those 8 digits of approximation?) remain critical^tm

I am guess-timating the need to close this week's candle at over $11,950-ish (give or take 20 bucks) in order for this week's candle to close green...

A greenie would be a bit over a 2% pumpening from our price - currently bouncing around at a weeeeeeee (a shameful note to gembitz) bit above $11,700, as I type.

You did not even qualify with #nohomo, you fuck!!!!!  





You are a BIG MEANIE, V8!!!!

Meanie to "random" avatar peeps on the interwebs!!!








Ps:
Oh... I overlooked saying congrats to JSRAW and the purported upcoming family. #nohomo

Doing your part to add to HODLers, one at a time.^tm  

Sure, I am kidding in regards to having some funzies with the picnic bear, but I am not really kidding in regards to substance.


Do you mean that anyone who had an account on bitfinex and some value (whether BTC, other crypto and/or fiat) on bitfinex as of August 2, 2016 took a bath?

Yeah, I remember you whining about various aspects of bitfinex at that time too... so sure, you have been whining for a while, and in regards to myself, I doubt that the "bath" that I took was significantly more extreme than anyone else who had value on bitfinex as of August 2...

Sure, some members reacted more extremely regarding the situation with a kind of presumption that bitfinex was employing an exit scam, and retrospectively, many of us have realized that those extreme scenarios did not seem to play out, and bitfinex ended up rising from the ashes in a way that caused the extreme actors to experience greater baths than the ones who played their hands more modestly - and yeah, I do not presume that bitfinex was either acting honestly or even that they did not financially benefit from the whole situation - and of course, we still do not know for sure whether the hack was an inside job even with the passage of more than 4 years and even with varying degrees of ongoing skepticism about bitfinex's integrity or their employment of tether and the impending death of tether and blah blah blah.

Yes.. you have seemed to have come off as ongoingly bitter about that bitfinex/tether situation, so maybe we can applaud you for that level of consistency, picnic bear (to the extent that "consistency" is a plus, lil hobgoblin bear...soooo cute!!!!!... ).


Who fucking cares?  If you hold tether at this point, you can market sell it for $1, and if you want to buy tether at this point, you can get it for $1.  Sure, if you do not want to be in tether because you feel uncomfortable or whatever blah blah blah, then get the fuck out of it.   You can use tether to move between assets and exchanges, and hold a certain amount of consistent dollar peg, and seems that Tether's dollar peg has held up pretty damned well for the past 4 years for some strange reason.  Go figure?

And sure, such dollar peg could come crashing down at any time..  Do I look like a fucking cheerleader for tether?  I hardly give any ratt's ass about tether except that it seems to be working for some purposes for some people to be able to move or hold value that they want to have pegged to the dollar for the time that they hold the tether.. and sure, such pegging works until it does not... so, ultimately, I never said that the promises of tether's ongoing peg to the dollar or whatever is as good as gold, you strawman creating twat.       .. .and even if I did say something that could be interpreted as being excited about tether (which I doubt that i did), who fucking cares?  You think that I am in bitcoin in order to get excited about tether or some other seeming quasi-centralized and difficult to understand utility/liquidity token like that?    


Hahahahahaha

Humorous, AlcoHoDL.... but at the same time, serious.. 

One of the benefits of kingdaddy, is that the key phrase or seed could be hidden in plain sight, and probably that unknown (not widely-spread - no pun intended) secret scares the bejeebus out of those who have enough appreciation of kingdaddy's power... once the newses leak (no pun intended) out.


They be like dis:
"You mean we don't have any control over the seemingly poor as fuck peeps ability to transact their value?"


Ok.... bitebits stole my thunder 

Not that I am greedy.   

We might be speaking past each other or I don't really understand the point.

I thought that I was trying to suggest that there were varying kinds of attempts to overthrow core developers, and sure I might not even know enough about whether it is an achievable goal or whatever, so you, pooya87, might be taking this whole subject matter to a place that is beyond anything that I was trying to say.. or even that I know the repercussions of the matter.

I surely don't proclaim to be any kind of expert, and I am not even very familiar with BTC governance beyond my arguments in regards to what various of the segwit opponents and the BIG blocker proponents were trying to achieve, whether we are referring to bcash hardforkers or segwit2x proponents or some other camps that were in the then opposition forces.

I do understand that characterizing something as bitcoin core developers may well imply some kind of unification which was not really my intention.. even if my phraseology may have come out that way.



We seem to be on a different plane, pooya87... I was merely remembering that something like a segwit2x went live in November 2017 or something like that and then the first block failed.. like there was something basically wrong in the code that could have likely been caught or fixed if there had been more persons involved in looking at the code, besides Garzik. .. I have not clue about the other code oversight issues that you mention regarding Schnorr .. which likely goes beyond my pay grade and my ability to stir up shit grade.