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Have you seen the complaints about fees being too large?
If people hoard, that means the price will go up. As the price goes up the fees gain in value. As the fees gain in value, more people will mine.
Also, you are talking about 2140. We have to first deal with the problem of transaction time between Earth and Mars.
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I believe you meant Bitcoin(tm) trademark registered...
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At first we will be surprised to see 200$. Next time we open our eyes it's past 1000$
my call for this coming week of breaking $200 is in tact also my call of $440 by April 30th, 2013 will be touched. From there is anyone's guess. Here is a very important question. How will you deal with it if BTC really does reach $1 million? For that to happen, more than likely the dollar will have met us somewhere in the middle by crashing. I would never cash out...I would just have more buying power with my bitcoins. |
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Bitcoin: You have two cows that create milk at 60kmL/day. You mine the milk and hoard it while talking up how great milk is. The price of milk skyrockets and you stockpile more and more. On paper you are the richest farmer in your village. To be continued...  |
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wait so if i consider myself a sovereign and sovereigns have an obligation to mint money than i have an obligation to mine bitcoin?
Yes, it will be a requirement by...umm...hmm... |
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People think of the price based upon the total amount of bitcoins in existence (almost 11 million).
The price does not go up a dollar after $11 million goes from dollars to bitcoins.
MtGox trades around 75,000 bitcoins per day.
It is those 75,000 bitcoins that set the price for the rest of the millions of bitcoins being used or hoarded daily.
So, if on average, $75,000 moves into the bitcoin economy per day the price will go up by $1 per day.
Just a few weeks ago we saw someone buy 20,000 bitcoins at once. The price was either $60 or $75. That is over a million dollars. $1 million divided by 75,000 is just over $13. Seeing the price go up by $13 is not uncommon.
Of course, some of those 75,000 bitcoin trades are people selling. This means that for the price to go up a dollar there are $75,000 more in buys than sells.
So, in order for the price of bitcoins to go from $140 to $1000/BTC, there would have to be about $65 million more buys than sells.
If $7 million comes into bitcoin per month we will be at $1,000 by the end of the year.
I think we can all fathom many ways in which that much money will be invested monthly.
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This just further highlights the fact that people will want to pay for things later with bitcoins.
And with a deflationary currency, the value over time will trend upwards.
Now all of this may become less of a factor when everyone is using bitcoins and they only gain value of 2% or so per year. But we are not there yet.
I'm perplexed. Why would I be more or less likely to pay with bitcoins just because you happen to decide not to use bitcoins for spending? In other words, you hoarding your coins doesn't change the total dollar valuation (TDV) of spending using bitcoins that happens. So go ahead and save up your coins if you want. How that does benefit Bitcoin is gives an increase in the purchasing power (from the higher exchange rate) to those who will spend them now (like I did, in my example). I was not saying that people would not use bitcoins for spending, but they would use it at the last moment. And will be less likely to spend months early in order to save a little. It is just something to think about. Hotel and travel agencies that like to have things booked months in advance may have to give better incentives if they are paid in bitcoins. We have seen this affect with people pre-ordering mining rigs paying with hundreds of bitcoins last year that are worth a whole lot more now. |
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Graphs are great for proving what happened.
I have a graph of what has happened for the past 3 months:
/
/
/
^
Now take that graph and throw it away.
The price will either do this:
_/
or this:
_
\
Or should I have better graphs to make it more believable?
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If the price grows at 5% weekly starting from 2013-01-01, $320
If the price grows at the lifetime average weekly rate of 7.3%, $1400
If the price grows at the rate it has achieved in 2013, $1.1 million.
Ok, so somewhere between $320 and $1.1 million. Can we hold you to that prediction? |
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Stability fuels the rocket.
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That crash on Wednesday they are talking about, is that the one where Bitcoin price went back to what it was the day before?
This. People have to stop complaining when it doesn't manage to go up more than 5% every single f'n day. Has no one kept in mind that a normal rate of return for an established commodity is under 10% every YEAR? There has to be a huge correction at some point! Maybe not a complete crash, but a correction of giant proportion. Everything that goes up, must come down...it'll happen eventually. Might even see $1000+ BTC before it does...but it WILL happen! So, when is Google's stock going to crash? They have been going up for several years. Just a warning to those doing any speculation, I plan on selling about 100 BTC when the price reaches $5,000/BTC. Plan accordingly. |
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There is an ebb and flow within the media. Once a story comes out, if there is positive attention paid to something, the opposite will be true within days. Same if something negative comes out, a few days later there will be articles about the other side of the story. Ever followed politics?
For every story the media gets two stories out of it this way.
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It was mentioned here that Cyprus is a very poor nation and that we would not see a whole lot of activity from the people of Cyprus as most of them do not even have Internet connections.
On the other hand markets shift on the slightest indicators. Cyprus is an indicator of what governments are willing to do during this financial crisis. Ben Bernanke could be overheard at dinner saying "stimulate" and the DJIA could jump 200 the next day.
Markets tend to try to beat the actual affects. A huge multi-million barrel oil field is discovered and the price of oil goes down. Even though not one drop of oil has yet to be pumped.
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I predict the price at $2,346 at some point that day.
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So the best strategy there is to pay it at the last possible moment.
It all depends if you expect the exchange rate to go up or down. During about the middle of this runup so far, I made a larger purchase from a Bitcoin merchant sooner than I had been planning on purposely to lock in the exchange rate such that if the rate dropped I got at least what I thought was a fantastic exchange rate. Ends up I had done that way too soon, but I'm not complaining. But also what is available to use are derivatives such as PUT options at MPEX and BTC/USD futures contracts at ICBIT. Now this adds a little more effort to a purchase decision but there's a good reason to consider it. Specifically, right now if I can wait until April 14th to spend my coins, I might get a small discount on a purchase then by instead today selling BUJ3 futures contracts on ICBIT at $150. So let's say I am planning on spending 1 BTC, worth right now about $137. There are buyers paying $150 for BUJ3 contracts. Each BUJ3 represents $10 worth of BTC/USD. So by depositing 1 BTC into my ICBIT.se account, I would then sell about 15 of the BUJ3 contracts at $150 (quantity 15 was chosen since that is the closest quantity to the current sell price, for $10 contracts). Then it doesn't matter if the exchange rate goes up or down, I will have about $150 worth of bitcoins on April 14th. Scenarios: If BTC/USD settlement price on April 14th is $100, then you would end up with 1.410 BTC (after fees), worth about $141. Gain $4 versus making your purchase today. If BTC/USD settlement price on April 14th is $170, then you would end up with 0.792 BTC (after fees), worth about $135.60, Loss $1.40 versus purchasing today. Now this is just for holding off until settlement 10 days from now but in the scenario where the price drops I earned about a 3% discount for letting my bitcoin be tied up for ten days. Extend this out a few months where, for example, the BUU3 contract settles September 15th, 2013, then you have a higher price that you can sell at (currently $168, so you sell 17 BUU3s) and you get significant gains by committing your 1.0 BTC now: Scenarios: If BTC/USD settlement price on Sept. 15th is $100, then you would end up with 1.671 BTC (after fees), worth about $167. Gain $30 versus making your purchase today. (or about a 22% discount for tying up your money for a period of less than 6 months). If BTC/USD settlement price on Sept. 15th is $200, then you would end up with 0.867 BTC (after fees), worth about $173, Gain $36 versus purchasing today. (or about a 26% discount for tying up your money for a period of less than 6 months). This just further highlights the fact that people will want to pay for things later with bitcoins. And with a deflationary currency, the value over time will trend upwards. Now all of this may become less of a factor when everyone is using bitcoins and they only gain value of 2% or so per year. But we are not there yet. |
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I am looking for some freelance work setting up some ExtJS pages.
The content will be very complicated so I am not looking for people who are "willing to learn".
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With the recent HUGE spike in value over the last couple of months I've ran into very few people who are spending their BTC,
What are they spending then? |
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Agree 100%. Buy a Credit Union.
I wonder if, at some stage in the bitcoin world, it would make sense for some of the top companies to form a JV and create/buy a credit union/bank in some free banking area, like Panama? Some grounded, brick and mortar, physical bank that would add one more strong link between Bitcoin and normal financial markets. Is there value in something like that? Actually, its in the works! Although not in the immediate future, I'd say definitely within a few years. I've been flying around the US meeting investors and individuals high in the finance world. One of my vc's had equity in BankServ, he was responsible for selling the company for $300 Million. When I met with him last week, he said things would be so much easier for BitInstant and our goals if we buy or start a small Credit Union, and he wants to help us get there I know the executives of a few exchanges are in talks about it as well. Hmm, it is a few years  Did anything ever come of trying to start a credit union? |
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I know that so many of the uninformed like to claim that nobody will spend bitcoins because "why spend when the value will go up".
However ignorant that is, I am noticing that I need to adjust my spending when using bitcoins as opposed to dollars.
I have been paid up on my mortgage for a couple of months now, same with my credit cards. I paid them early out of habit of "I have the money, I need to pay it anyway, so I might as well pay it now".
But I pay for my web hosting service with bitcoins. I got my invoice for this month which is due next week and my first instinct was to go ahead and pay it and get it out of my way. Then I realized, a week from now my bitcoins could be worth a lot more.
So the best strategy there is to pay it at the last possible moment.
And then there are things like travel or things you may book months in advance to get a better price. Why would I pay for a vacation this summer hoping to get a 10% discount when, if I wait until this summer, my money could be worth a lot more than the 10% savings.
It may be something we need to get used to and change our habits both as consumers and providers.
Now I am sure that there will be ignorant people shouting "see! that's why Bitcoin won't work, nobody will spend their money!".
That is not what I am saying at all. The alternative for these cases would be me holding cash and not gaining any wealth over time. I am talking about maximizing my spending power by holding off on spending while building wealth. But still spending nonetheless.
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Still doing percent increase wrong? $0.30 -> $4.72 = 1473%, not 1573%. $4.72 -> $13.50 = 186%. Not going to take your market predictions to heart, no offense.
Ahh, yep. I just divided then moved the decimal not taking into account the original value. The ratio is the same for the $212 estimate though. And BTC... popular? I just asked my VPS provider to either re-price my monthly dues at current market value of BTC (it's a $5/mo VPS now invoicing me for $14/mo in BTC), or let me pay with Paypal. I'm actually annoyed with BTC. Go figure. My hosting service adjusts the cost in BTC based on the dollar cost. Check out Bitronic. I pay $66/month for a dedicated server. Last month that was 1.4 BTC, this month it will be less than 1 BTC. |
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