I only bet 1.23456 on the 2nd bet, for luck. I kept the ugly 30 extra satoshis back. To: satoshidice lessthan 52000 1dicec9k7KpmQaA8Uc8aCCxfWnwEWzpXE Debit: -1.23456 BTC Net amount: -1.23456 BTC Transaction ID: fb57d4ca861119576ad687f92f2600d083332ef7a1651b3ae47d627ac6d5f3fe We won again:  Credit: 1.52425605 BTC Net amount: +1.52425605 BTC Transaction ID: 265da2854d0661c1845eaf47bc387cf299c24c43a5d10ed83c1bee97da89bbb8  So overall the profit is 0.52425635 BTC, which after my 5% commission means I owe you 1.49804353 BTC: >>> 1.52425605 - 1.23456 + 1.2345603 - 1
0.52425635
>>> 0.52425635 * 0.95 + 1
1.49804353 Shall I send it to one of the hundred or so addresses you sent the 1 BTC from? Or do you want it sent somewhere else? |
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First bet: To: satoshidice lessthan 52000 1dicec9k7KpmQaA8Uc8aCCxfWnwEWzpXE Debit: -1.00 BTC Net amount: -1.00 BTC Transaction ID: efd324da2866659ed3266efd504fc5858a5592bad798470e941c79703fe9887b It won: Credit: 1.2345603 BTC Net amount: +1.2345603 BTC Transaction ID: 2b41d4be73d9974f6634ba25debc90fc4aa54197a04a1aba7dc4ea158bbfcd1c 1.23456 BTC - that looks like a lucky number to me!   So onwards... |
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Sent: cd5ba2fe364df234014b58b4cb0f3fa637de28a8458cc75809361613e7a6cc77
No need for txids first, after-action is perfect. Strategy and loss-limit choices are entirely yours. I have faith in the dooglus.
Good luck!
Received. Here's my thoughts on how best to get you the return you asked for: These are the relevant available bets: lessthan 64000 1dice9wVtrKZTBbAZqz1XiTmboYyvpD3t 97.6563% 1.004x 1.900% 98.100% 0.0010 250.0000
lessthan 60000 1diceDCd27Cc22HV3qPNZKwGnZ8QwhLTc 91.5527% 1.071x 1.900% 98.100% 0.0010 250.0000
lessthan 56000 1dicegEArYHgbwQZhvr5G9Ah2s7SFuW1y 85.4492% 1.147x 1.900% 98.100% 0.0010 250.0000
lessthan 52000 1dicec9k7KpmQaA8Uc8aCCxfWnwEWzpXE 79.3457% 1.235x 1.900% 98.100% 0.0010 250.0000
lessthan 48000 1dice9wcMu5hLF4g81u8nioL5mmSHTApw 73.2422% 1.338x 1.900% 98.100% 0.0010 250.0000
lessthan 32768 1dice97ECuByXAvqXpaYzSaQuPVvrtmz6 50.0000% 1.957x 1.900% 98.100% 0.0010 250.0000
lessthan 32000 1dice8EMZmqKvrGE4Qc9bUFf9PX3xaYDp 48.8281% 2.004x 1.900% 98.100% 0.0010 250.0000 We want a 50% return. So 2 possibilities seem to be: 1) Play "lessthan 52000" twice We have a 63.0% chance of winning 52.2 bitcents: >>> (float(52000) / 65536) ** 2
0.6295740604400635
>>> 1.235 * 1.235
1.525225 2) play "lessthan 56000" three times We have a 62.4% chance of winning 50.9 bitcents: >>> (float(56000) / 65536) ** 3
0.6239133654162288
>>> 1.147 * 1.147 * 1.147
1.509003523 The first option has a slightly higher chance of winning, and a slightly higher payout too, so that's what I'll do. |
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What's the odds of 10 in a row? I was doing good until that run of bad luck hit and wiped me out.
If each spin was 50/50, it would be 1023 to 1 against getting 10 reds in a row. But there's a green too, so it's 1345.8 to 1 against. >>> (37/18.0)**10 - 1
1345.7661421344362 I've seen it happen twice and I've played a lot less than 1000 spins. |
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I just noticed - you accepted my bet with 0 confirmations, and paid out my winnings without using my bet as one of the inputs. That probably opens you up to fraud. I can double-spend all my bets to you and you'll probably still pay out my winning bets.
It's safer if you can make the payouts depend on the bets - so if the bet never confirms neither does the payout.
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I tried the game out. I sent 1 bitcent and played 20 lines. 3 of them got 3-in-a-row, giving 3*7 = 21 twentieths of a bitcent. And the transaction fee (1/20th of a bitcent) took the prize down to 20 twentieths of a bitcent - exactly what I paid. I'm sure it must mean something - as far as I've seen nobody ever won back exactly what they sent before. And if I hadn't complained about the house edge being too high, I would have made a profit, because 3-in-a-row used to pay 10x instead of 7x. (I complained in PM that 3-in-a-row was paying proportionally more than it should compared to the rarer 4- and 5-in-a-row payouts. So they got fixed...  |
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How about a link on each of the 'recent spins' entries which takes me to the page for that spin, so I can see the reels and payouts? Currently I have to copy, paste, and edit the URL of the txid link into the 'check txid' box, which is kind of awkward.
I just added up the bets and payouts of all the displayed 'recent spins':
From 95 displayed recent spins, a total of 4.10929972 was bet, and 1.89070043 was paid out. That's a return to player of just 46%! I guess people have just been unlucky so far.
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Payouts have been adjusted to have an expected house edge of 1.95%
And some other cosmetic/grammar changes
Good! One other comment: the logo seems to me to be horribly ugly and very hard to read. I'm not usually sensitive to such things, so I think it must be unusually bad. |
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Of course. But as any gambler knows, the secret to survival is discounting the bad cases and focusing on the good cases.
Yes. We're all "about even" on our gambling careers, I'm sure. |
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One question, though: on the one hand, you say gambling's a bad idea. On the other hand, you have a gambling-related ad in your sig.  He said gambling was a bad idea (it has a negative expectation). He didn't say that advertising gambling sites was a bad idea (it presumably has some kind of positive expectation). |
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If I hit control-a (select all) I see an invisible fish swimming around. What's that about?
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wow i just found out strategy is not just about when to stand and hit, i have be drastically increasing my wins by doubling the bet each time i lose so that when i win i always make all the money i lost back plus the original bet... daym this is too easy
considering the the odds are going i'm going to win at least once out of like... 10? say i have 300 and making dollar bets-- i would have to lose 9 time in a row before i lost my money... do you guys think thats risky? i have been having much better luck doing this.
I've played a fair amount of blackjack at bitZino.com. They occasionally give me a small amount of bitcoin to play with, and when they do I use exactly the strategy you've just "discovered". Of the 5 or 6 times they've given me bitcoins to play with, in all but one case I lost the whole amount before cashing anything out. In the most recent case I made gains of about 30%, cashed out the amount they gave me, then lost the rest. The Martingale strategy is particularly poorly suited for blackjack because sometimes you'll want to double down or split your cards, which artificially increases the amount you've bet on that hand, and so if you lose you'll need to bet even more than double on the next hand to make up for your losses. I've had slightly better luck playing Martingale on red/black in roulette, because then you can be sure of how many losses you can sustain in a row before you either run out of chips or hit the house maximum. In my experience though, you need to be betting less than 1/1000th of your bankroll to make it unlikely that you'll bust out, and then you only increase your bankroll by 0.1% each time you're successful. It gets boring, so I end up increasing my initial bet, which increases the probability of busting. If you want to double your bankroll, the safest way to do it is to put it all on a single event, rather than gambling the same money over and over. So if you wouldn't put it all on red because that's too risky, you shouldn't be using the Martingale strategy either, because that is even less likely to result in you doubling your money. It's fun though, so long as you can stand to lose it all... Just don't think you've discovered something that works. It doesn't. |
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What about such an idea: more the others lose, more u win? The premise is that SatoshiDICE doesn't distinguish different players and Statistics says that in the long run SatoshiDice gets only 2%.
A winning strategy should be playing only when SatoshiDICE wins, not loses.
This doesn't work. The dice has no memory. The law of large numbers guarantees that the site's performance will eventually tend towards the expected house edge, even without the dice having any memory. So any strategy which relies on historical results won't work. |
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A good day for SDICE. These seem to be the most significant bets since the last update: Wed Nov 21 04:07:49 2012 <12000 208852 5201eb891030ac8f:1 1HNT2b91eQQND93Ugt2LsMR7zdqM2Xc8dv BET 150.00000000 LOSE -149.25050000
Wed Nov 21 04:07:49 2012 <16000 208852 39fca1d00d8f1f85:1 1L6SePnGLgqB3JfPKtDur2LcuhtcyoXsH4 BET 128.00000000 LOSE -127.36050000
Wed Nov 21 04:15:47 2012 <16000 208853 c7ef5c8820f4fcd4:1 1Kp8TdKDPXGBa7NphnNgGHp4BSMvpHhby1 BET 219.00000000 LOSE -217.90550000
Wed Nov 21 04:37:57 2012 <16000 208856 bd8e50e774d1a67b:1 1MFg97t2r7suUWvzghg8Ys1nbJHcXZxu1b BET 210.00000000 LOSE -208.95050000 |
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Results: 2012-Nov-21 09:00am (up to block 208936)
Address Target Should Win | #Bets | Win | Lose | Refunds | BTC In | BTC Out | Refund | Profit | RTP
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1dice1e6p 1 0.00002 | 42500 | 0 (0.00000) | 42011 | 489 | 271.59 | 0.01 | 54.02 | 271.57 | 0.007
1dice1Qf4 2 0.00003 | 2380 | 0 (0.00000) | 2280 | 100 | 35.96 | 0.00 | 11.57 | 35.96 | 0.005
1dice2pxm 4 0.00006 | 3740 | 0 (0.00000) | 3697 | 43 | 49.26 | 0.04 | 6.39 | 49.21 | 0.087
1dice2vQo 8 0.00012 | 5092 | 2 (0.00040) | 5045 | 45 | 79.40 | 16.08 | 5.65 | 63.32 | 20.251
1dice2WmR 16 0.00024 | 6314 | 1 (0.00016) | 6273 | 40 | 174.80 | 4.31 | 12.60 | 170.49 | 2.468
1dice2xkj 32 0.00049 | 7854 | 3 (0.00038) | 7839 | 12 | 482.66 | 303.41 | 1.29 | 179.24 | 62.864
1dice2zdo 64 0.00098 | 9910 | 8 (0.00081) | 9876 | 26 | 758.89 | 124.65 | 55.64 | 634.23 | 16.426
1dice37Ee 128 0.00195 | 12088 | 22 (0.00183) | 12009 | 57 | 1687.56 | 1292.35 | 48.25 | 395.21 | 76.581
1dice3jkp 256 0.00391 | 13215 | 61 (0.00462) | 13137 | 17 | 1876.61 | 2647.47 | 13.12 | -770.86 | 141.077
1dice4J1m 512 0.00781 | 20838 | 158 (0.00759) | 20667 | 13 | 3596.55 | 3447.69 | 9.35 | 148.86 | 95.861
1dice5wwE 1000 0.01526 | 49537 | 766 (0.01547) | 48758 | 13 | 10859.34 | 10534.95 | 1.80 | 324.38 | 97.013
1dice61SN 1500 0.02289 | 18120 | 435 (0.02402) | 17676 | 9 | 5889.05 | 6150.25 | 15.00 | -261.20 | 104.435
1dice6DPt 2000 0.03052 | 26765 | 854 (0.03191) | 25905 | 6 | 6661.60 | 6203.60 | 9.24 | 458.00 | 93.125
1dice6gJg 3000 0.04578 | 19285 | 888 (0.04608) | 18384 | 13 | 8065.69 | 9254.16 | 24.99 | -1188.46 | 114.735
1dice6GV5 4000 0.06104 | 23880 | 1467 (0.06145) | 22408 | 5 | 5410.90 | 4930.17 | 31.20 | 480.72 | 91.116
1dice6wBx 6000 0.09155 | 26791 | 2529 (0.09447) | 24241 | 21 | 11810.21 | 12482.74 | 7.01 | -672.53 | 105.694
1dice6YgE 8000 0.12207 | 107645 | 13221 (0.12285) | 94399 | 25 | 16883.27 | 14925.97 | 0.00 | 1957.29 | 88.407
1dice7EYz 12000 0.18311 | 27841 | 5214 (0.18741) | 22608 | 19 | 11564.31 | 11684.99 | 14.50 | -120.68 | 101.044
1dice7fUk 16000 0.24414 | 125507 | 30603 (0.24392) | 94861 | 43 | 78709.66 | 78398.73 | 566.80 | 310.92 | 99.605
1dice7W2A 24000 0.36621 | 91280 | 33619 (0.36854) | 57604 | 57 | 76608.78 | 77729.30 | 212.64 | -1120.51 | 101.463
1dice8EMZ 32000 0.48828 | 696256 | 340017 (0.48870) | 355735 | 504 | 399698.74 | 395978.32 | 2923.44 | 3720.41 | 99.069
1dice97EC 32768 0.50000 | 271609 | 135436 (0.49905) | 135951 | 222 | 258368.64 | 253031.04 | 1709.79 | 5337.60 | 97.934
1dice9wcM 48000 0.73242 | 189747 | 139590 (0.73599) | 50072 | 85 | 185035.12 | 181751.67 | 704.58 | 3283.44 | 98.226
1dicec9k7 52000 0.79346 | 21011 | 16714 (0.79602) | 4283 | 14 | 31151.81 | 31083.80 | 1187.00 | 68.00 | 99.782
1dicegEAr 56000 0.85449 | 20117 | 17241 (0.85819) | 2849 | 27 | 32044.27 | 31701.46 | 400.00 | 342.81 | 98.930
1diceDCd2 60000 0.91553 | 12380 | 11342 (0.91690) | 1028 | 10 | 26283.11 | 26219.30 | 0.00 | 63.81 | 99.757
1dice9wVt 64000 0.97656 | 9043 | 8709 (0.98030) | 175 | 159 | 19399.83 | 19061.24 | 239.21 | 338.59 | 98.255
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small (bets < 4 BTC) | 1801596 | 729259 | 1070485 | 1852 | 441853.04 | 432821.99 | 161.50 | 9031.05 | 97.956
big (bets >= 4 BTC) | 59149 | 29641 | 29286 | 222 | 751604.68 | 746135.84 | 8103.70 | 5468.84 | 99.272
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| 1860745 | 758900 | 1099771 | 2074 | 1193457.72 | 1178957.83 | 8265.20 | 14499.89 | 98.785
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SD Profit before fees: 14499.89370397 BTC (1.215%)
Cumulative Fees Paid: 1054.84677500 BTC
SD Profit after fees: 13445.04692897 BTC (1.127%)
----
Since Satoshi Dice started, there have been:
Blockchain Tx: 6235183 : SatoshiDice Tx: 3450331 (55.3%)
Blockchain MB: 2639.0 : SatoshiDice MB: 1409.7 (53.4%)  |
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I wish to take you up on this. I will wager 1 bitcoin, and aim for 1.5 return. I demand, however, that you take 5% of any return.
Well alright! 1ENhPicE9pA79aXVacrZBzLjWRv4e7MTNr It's the same address I used last time. Edit: last time (see my previous link) I posted transaction IDs before sending the bets so the guy could see that I wasn't cheating him. It's kind of a pain to create the transactions offline and post their IDs, but I can if you like. Let me know. |
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this is cool, i curious what the actually math looks like. i am taking a business stats class, and i am used to punching a bunch of data in to excel charts and having excel calculate variance yada yada... i hardly actually no what it all means i just know i put in data type in =stdev(data) it would be cool to see how you come up with this data playing blackjack and how you can determine the best strategy for games with slightly different rules and get different strategy... also in hitorstand.net there are tables that show what to do in pretty much any scenario of hands, would you say those are good strategy on bitzino? the only difference i could tell from the vegas and atlantic strategies on hit or splitting pairs... what are the rules that changes this strategy? and when i'm going to a casino what do i need to really look out for when determining my strategy? when looking up the rules at my local casino they say "double-action" and the cards are dealt face up and we don't touch the cards. i thought this sounded weird but i guess if the dealer has set rules of when to hit and stand there is no reason one of my cards should be a secret... but if you split you get your cards face down ... i'm thinking about cashing in my bitcoin winnings and heading to the casino, but i've never played cards in a casino. do you think i will have better luck playing online at my own pace? i feel like the shuffle between each hand give the house more of an edge... especially seeing like 4 hands being a blackjack in a row... See http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/strategy/calculator/ for a page that tells you the basic strategy given the rules you're playing. The standard deviation of a set of data is the square root of the mean of the square of the difference between each point of the data and its mean. Or something like that. Before going to the casino, try to find out what rules they play. How many decks they use, whether you can double after splitting, etc. You should be able to find out on the phone to them. Then use the wizardofodds calculator to generate the basic strategy tables for those rules, lean them, and stick to them as you play. BitZino's rule set is pretty good - it's likely your local casinos offer a less favourable set of rules. And most casinos these days use automatic shuffling machines which shuffle the cards continuously, so they're in effect shuffling before every hand, just like bitZino does. If you're not going to put in the time and effort to learn how to count cards, it doesn't make a lot of different to you whether they shuffle every hand or not. If they don't shuffle, the deck will run hot and cold, but you won't know what state it's in, so you won't know when to increase or decrease your bet... |
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It is the first 15 characters of hash(txid+secret), sorted top to bottom, Left to right, so
1.4.7.10.13
2.5.8.11.14
3.6.9.12.15
To win the matching characters must be the first in the line, left to right
Thank you for pointing out parts that are hard to understand and I have added the bet amount to the page.
I sent you a PM about the math
I think I'd call that something other than "sorted". Sorting is taking things which are out of order and ordering them. You're not doing that. I answered your PM and look forward to playing the game if the house edge is reduced as a result. |
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Yes but the odds of hitting less than 8000 on only 5 tries is very low.
It's actually a probability of 0.48 to hit it in 5 or less tries: >>> 1-(1-8000.0/65536)**5
0.478446726626669 ie. you're almost as likely to hit lessthan 8000 in 5 tries or less than you are to fail to hit it. Here's a strategy for winning almost 500 BTC: win on turn 1 : bet = 71.08115510, spent = 71.08165510, win = 568.67660461, lose = 0.35490577, back = 0.00000000, profit = 497.59494951 (87.793% to lose all)
win on turn 2 : bet = 81.18455783, spent = 152.26671293, win = 649.50778702, lose = 0.40542278, back = 0.35490577, profit = 497.59597986 (77.076% to lose all)
win on turn 3 : bet = 92.72404791, spent = 244.99126084, win = 741.82823108, lose = 0.46312023, back = 0.76032855, profit = 497.59729879 (67.667% to lose all)
win on turn 4 : bet = 105.90374931, spent = 350.89551015, win = 847.27100871, lose = 0.52901874, back = 1.22344878, profit = 497.59894734 (59.407% to lose all)
win on turn 5 : bet = 120.95679999, spent = 471.85281014, win = 967.70131497, lose = 0.60428399, back = 1.75246752, profit = 497.60097235 (52.155% to lose all) You'll see that there's a 52% chance of losing all 5 bets (a total of 472 BTC), but if any of the 5 bets win, you'll win 497 BTC. That seems like a good deal to me actually - because it feels like 497.6 * 47.845% is bigger than 471.85 * 52.155% (but, of course, it isn't - there's no "good deal" when playing SatoshiDice...) Also, if you won on the 5th roll, you'd be the 2nd biggest winner in the history of SatoshiDice. |
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