S/he/it has a deceptive username, then.

Maybe s/he/it should call  selfie "defi-believer"?  or some other "bulllshit distraction believer"?  

I stand by my earlier comment, and if you are retiring, you do not want anyone exit scamming with your retirement principle merely because you feel insecure about whether you have enough to be able to cash out 4% per year or some other reasonable liquidation plan and still be able to largely preserve the value of your principle and to have the asset (in this case bitcoin) to appreciate in value enough to be comfortable with the amount that you are withdrawing.

Of course, if you are retiring, the longer your timeline, the more secure that you need to feel about having enough principle to last you whether for the duration of your retirement and that you do not have to go back to work because you failed to properly plan in term s of the amount that you have and the amount of your spending.   

If you anticipate your retirement to be 10 years, 20 years, 30 years or more.. then the longer the timeline, the more you need to be careful regarding how much you withdraw or if you go into retirement too early, then you might not have been ready for retirement if you cannot sustain your withdrawal amount..

I personally believe that $2million in principle would be sufficient for a lot of people around the world, because withdrawing 4% per year from a $2million principle would allow for $6,666, in passive income.. which presumes that the value of your various investments (in this case bitcoin) will appreciate on average at least 4% per year.. Personally, I believe that bitcoin can meet the at least 4% per year of sustaining its value or appreciating in value presumption without having to take 3rd party risks, and sure other people are going to make other presumptions or take other gambles, and they might end up getting exit scammed which will cause them to have less money in their retirement, presuming that they do not put all of their eggs in one basket. 

I personally do not have all my eggs in one basket, but I am thinking that bitcoin will constitute a pretty decent size of what is available t me, and my other investments by themselves are also enough to sustain me so bitcoin, for me, kind of serves as extra icing on the cake.  Of course, also, we live in uncertain times, so it becomes more possible that I will have to live off of my bitcoin, but my bitcoin is way larger than my conception of my basic needs.. so in any event it seems to be both good to have a cushion and also not feel that there is any kind of need to earn money on your bitcoin through some potentially problematic third party for the reasons that I already repeated several times.

You do not need to earn interest on your BTC - because BTC is already designed to pump forever, and why get preoccupied with interest when it could end up adding too much third-party risk to your BTC investment approach?

In other words, interest on your BTC seems to be a distraction that will lead too many people to give up custody of their BTC when in fact BTC HODLers are more empowered overall by figuring out ways to hold their own private keys.

If you are retroactively analyzing where you could have been, then maybe you are concluding that the "opportunity costs are killer", and you also believe that you are being objective in your measurements, but if you don't really know what the fuck you are doing, but you are optimistic about the investment, you are probably way better off just engaging in DCA and working on other aspects of your life including earning money or spending time on other interests that you have.  Could be more of an opportunity cost trying to study and figure out an investment and then trying to figure out how to trade the BIG swings or whatever strategy that you might retrospectively conclude would have been better, when you could have been earning money or having fun in ways that are preferable to your own interests.



Good for you, but if someone cannot figure it out exactly, s/he may be better to just take action to start their dollar cost averaging rather than wasting their mental energies on trying to figure something out that they cannot really identify whether it is up, down or sideways and they have no fucking clue which way it might go in the short-term future even though they have confidence in it as an investment in the long term.


Yes.. I agree that there are other ways to invest, but one of the best ways to start is simple and straight forward DCA.. and it can be with a very small amount and the investor/trader can learn those other strategies, too if s/he wants.

Of course, if someone has some trading / investing timing skills than that person might be able to do better than DCA strategy, but that surely is not the majority of people .. I am not saying that they should not try to learn or whatever, but as a basic starting point, DCA is a great starting point absent some inclinations to learn or talent or whatever that might allow for some other non-DCA to possibly work better or to be better suited for some person coming into the BTC consideration for themself.



It tends to take a long to to build an investment portfolio.. so, sure there can be some ways to get lucky, but I still tell people the same thing.. and of course, if my strategy has been successful, my strategy gives me more confidence that it works. 

yeah when i was in my first 5-10 years of investing, I was struggling to build the size of my investment portfolio, so I have more credibility after I have employed it for a long time.. and I would not really have confidence to say anything when I am in the early years, and I was likely still learning a lot from others, so I really was not in a position to share any information because I was confused about what I was doing and whether it was going to actually work.. but through the years, I am better able to share it, and I am also in a position that I can share it.. and to help people who might be similar to where I was in my earlier years and to give them some ideas to benefit them in their thinking, planning and their confidence regarding what they are doing.  Some people may learn methods that are even better than my own, too.



That is why we try to figure out strategies so we do not get ourselves into such a pickle... psychologically or financially.


My point is that it is better to create a plan and to act on that plan, even if the plan ends up being waiting, but more frequently, it is better to DCA.. which just means investing right away, even if it is a small amount.  Of course, frequently, investors can plan to buy on dips too, but better to act than to wait... and part of acting may well be planning and setting parameters for some of the money.. which would be the combination of DCA, buying on dips HODLing. and sure after building up an investment position then maybe selling some on the way up too.

Let's say that some hypothetical person has $6k that s/he can invest right now, and $6k that s/he knows is coming in through cash flow over the next 6 months that s/he is going to be able to invest.  Therefore, s/he has $12k that is going to come available over the next 6 months.  S/he can create a plan that involves how to use that $12k over the next 6 months, and sure, the person could just have a plan that waits for a certain price point or the person can combine DCAing and buying on dips.. There is discretion, and my suggestion would be for the person to figure out for themselves what they are going to do and to be able to have a plan either way, and my own plan involves putting some of the money to work right away, and I give less than two shits if the BTC price ends up going in one direction or another because I am trying get a stake into BTC and also to prepare for the BTC price to go either way... I personally have other investments as well, so I understand that the considerations might be different if the person was brand spanking new to investing, so the $12k was the only money that they have... but there are all kinds of scenarios, and sure, I am leaning towards action right away, but I am also accepting that individuals might set their plans up differently, and one of the main things would be to think through various possible scenarios to figure out comfort levels for a variety of scenarios rather than just presuming that you know which way the price is going to go and to put all eggs into betting into a BTC price direction that might not end up playing out.

No problem.  Just want to harass you on a regular basis.  Of course, you do not have to start to trade, especially if you are not comfortable, but I will still likely regularly make my assertion that there is something a bit more solid about actively participating.. and sure, it is possible that your mere HODLing of bitcoin is sufficient enough "active participation."..

By the way, I personally believe that my ongoing BTC buy and sell orders do sometimes inform me on a more concrete basis about where the BTC price has been and where it might be going.  So if I look back and I see that no buy orders or sell orders have been executed in the past month, then I realize we have been stuck in a range for a damned long time, but if I see that BTC orders have been filling mostly in one direction rather than the other, then that might tell me something too.

Sometimes, we will see a small amount of BTC price movement, or it might even seem large because the BTC price had not moved a long time, but then I look at my outstanding BTC orders, and if none of them have filled, I will proclaim:  "so fucking what!!!!!!" about the BTC price move because it was not enough to fill any of my outstanding orders, so why should I be getting excited about about some seemingly BIG price move that really was not big enough to fill any of my outstanding orders?

Are you preparing to make any bets in connection with your analysis yet, Globb0, or are you still a wee bit too chicken? 



 

I agree that jbreher has largely devolved into a lot of contrarianism that seems to be for the mere sake of contrarianism, but he has been that way for a few years.. and maybe it just seems that he is sometimes being stubborn because he has wedded himself to a lot of ongoing nonsense conclusions.

He can make some good points from time to time and even some of his technically being correct about one thing or another will sometimes make some sense, but still difficult to take him seriously because we likely realized that the BIG blocker nonsense is also hard to really make sense of in terms of really attempting to put forth genuine arguments..

Can almost presume the vast majority of bsv supporters fall into some kind of similar camp, and maybe even more so if they are actively supporting that crap rather than being a mere investor that is hoping for some kind of pumpening (without really studying into the specifics of the scam and/the narcism and the pie in the sky nonsense that Bcash SV is).

So yeah jbreher and sgbett fall into similar camps in terms of their both being capable of presenting interesting and well thought out ideas but being ongoingly influenced by their bagholding fantasies related to the bcashes, big block and even focusing on bsv as if there should be any hope in that nonsense that goes beyond deception and pumpening that might be able to come from time to time through an illiquid asset that has some wealthy nutjobs that are willing to pump it or to otherwise prop up some smoke and mirror baloney litigation or whatever other real world money that it takes to market that baloney.

Furthermore, related to this thread, sgbett still waiting for a large BTC correction that seems less and less likely to come, jbreher does not usually talk up such correction possibilities unless he is all excited about some bcash sv pumpening or some other Big blocker diversion or even other shitcoin support that he may be experiencing that happens to line up with bitcoin bashing.. he might even be in the defi movement in recent times, and not knowing how sgbett might be incorporating defi nonsense in his ongoing waiting for some kind of meaningful BTC correction that is not too likely to come in this cycle... (but never say never, I suppose).

Not hearing any complaining.

Excitement might NOT show its lil selfie until we get a bit beyond $12k because we were already here, a mere 9 days ago....



but who is counting?


As you were.  Go on, speculate.


How about the platform for a rocket elevator, would you object to that?

 

If they are largely bashing shitcoins, and making comparisons and contrasting regarding shitcoin features as compared with bitcoin, while bashing various aspects of thos shitcoins, then I don't see any major problem with that.

Sometimes we need very smart peeps to get into some difficult to understand details and to be bashing in a kind of technically appropriate and insightful way that might NOT be regularly done by some of us less technical folks.. so they might be adding a kind of niche to the space for a service or an angle that is not really being provided very well through other publications, currently.

If we believe that they are giving too much benefit of the doubt to some shitcoin project(s), then we can react accordingly, but I would not consider any of the technical folks to be sell outs to shitcoins, even if some people do not like every single one of their projects.. and yeah, if they have their own coin, like fluffy pony and charlie litecoin, that could be a bit problematic.. because we have sometimes seen some products from altcoiners that is a bit ambiguous.. I don't see any major issues with for the vast majority of the stuff that blockstream does, but they had gotten some criticisms in the past regarding some of their projects, and even sometimes causing them to pull back a bit or to change their direction a bit...

Tentatively, I am thinking that our current BTC price range is in the $10k to $12k arena, and we entered into it about two weeks ago.  

Difficult to really pinpoint the range exactly or where we are at, because of course, when we first enter into the range, there is a decent amount of of bouncing around and even some lack of clarity regarding that the range is exactly and then maybe in about the past four days or so, we have been mostly hovering towards the top of the range.

Your guess is as good as mine regarding whether any kind of break out is going to occur.  It does kind of feel as if there are slightly greater odds that momentum would continue towards the UP before we have a larger consolidation.. and sure that could mean trickling up to $17,250-ish..

I cannot really envision being ready to challenge ATH, yet...  That would seem way too overheated, even though getting up to $17,250 would also be a more mild form of overheated...  but who is to say... with any kind of certainty, beyond just appreciating that some upward BTC price pressures continue, as I type?  And, yeah, to what extent are any macroeconomic factors going to play into any of this, or to what extent might some of the shitcoin froth get in the way... even while all of these seem to be continuing with ongoing upward price pressures, until they are not.  

By the way, Jimbo, what do you think about the idea of driving to Mexico?  You think that it is a bit crazy?  Can carry more stuff (presuming that you can get through the borders), but then don't want to have a very nice car either, because could be a target, right?  Stick to the main roads, only drive during the day?  That kind of thing? 

Do you have any opinions one direction or another whether you thought about it or actually did it?  I know if you travel from Canada, then you would be passing through two borders, but I am just presuming the part about being able to get through the borders, and thereafter, just the issues of driving through .. maybe entering through the Loredo crossing going to Monterey then to Mexico City and then going to whatever other destination(s) from there.  I realize that there are some areas the people avoid driving through and maybe just attempt to watch whether any specific tensions or incidents might be happening in terms of passing through one area or another that might have potential issues of getting shook down.

Stop cheering for down.. It might not come.    So you are messing up the Karma.  

If you just accept where we are at, then you might get your down, perhaps later, after we get a wee bit MOAR of our UP, firsity.  



health and safety are within a similar category, and sometimes there is a need for a state to tell you dumb fucks what to do.  

Nothing personal.  

 



Toughen up strawbs.

We are all not going to die because we talked ourselves to death about masks, and furthermore if you stop following this thread, you might miss something important..... Then whatchagonnado?  delete all your posts because you cannot tolerate meanies on the interwebs?  Or sell all your BTC after a dip that you were not expecting because you started to believe masterluc's bullshit?

Skimming works, too.   

Are you trying to scare AlcoHoDL even more than he already is?

Before dropping the ladyboy angle, he was already looking like this:



 

Fair enough regarding taste and lifestyle variances:

In essence, here's the short-cut rendition regarding how I do it:



Don't be proclaiming that I never gave you anything.  


Whoaza!!!!

You be creating a monster?   

What are you saying?

"Cash is king" in Germany?  or are you referring to some other place in which cash is supposedly king?  I am not sufficiently informed of the context of this kind of assertion.


She would beat the shit out of you.. maybe with one hand, like a sledge hammer.


Don't even try, AlcoHoDL; you don't stand a chance.

I'm going to quibble with you in regards to these various assertions, mcdocduderino.

I am not sure whether there have been changes in the ways that regular active WO members talk about BTC price predictions over the years, but it seems to me that when any member asserts BTC price direction with certainties (whether UP or down), they tend to get bashed by various members in this thread.  Of course, many of us have a tendency to bash the Down predictors more frequently and with more force than we bash the UP predictors, even when the odds might be in a bit more in the favor of the down predictors at the moment of the speculative bashenings.

We corrected all the way down to $3,850 on March 12, so surely, there was a lot of uncertainties regarding how long it was going to take to get back to $10k, but it still does not seem to be a fair characterization to be describing so many of us as losing some short term hopes.  The reality with any severe BTC price moves is that we can never be sure the extent that we might get stuck in an unfavorable range for much longer than we would wish, so then even if so many of us have longer term expectations that BTC's price moves are going to continue to be UP, we can be all over the place including short-term pessimistic without really losing any of our longer term resolve.



How the fuck are we going to know where BTC prices are going in the short term?  Seems unfair to be criticizing us for not knowing where BTC prices are going in the short term, as if we have to have some kind of attempts at sorcery status in order to be credible?

If the BTC price goes shooting up to $17k or $30k, many of us are likely to proclaim.. "holy fucking shit" even while we are prepared for such outrageous Upwards price moves and being blown out of the water at the same time that we are prepared for it.  Doesn't really mean much of anything if the whole time that BTC prices shoots up to $17k or $30k (hypothetically) we are proclaiming that we expect a severe correction at any time.  These things happen in bitcoin, and how the fuck are we going to know for sure... we expect a correction at any time, but such correction ends up not happening and we are laughing with joy all the way to the bank while we are surprised as fuck, at the same time.

We should be able to simultaneously hold contrary views in our head at the same time, too without suggesting that there is something wrong with our thinking.  That is part of the process of not really knowing with any kind of certainty what is going to happen.

Ever since I got into bitcoin, in late 2013, I was hoping a lot that BTC was going to at least be able to average 6% per year returns, which was about the average that I had been receiving with the combination of my various traditional investments, but at the same time I was willing to ride my BTC investment down to zero, because that was the level of my commitment to how much I had chosen to invest into it and allowing my investment play out while continuing to have uncertainties about what such investment was going to do in the short, medium or long term.

So surely while I continued to invest into BTC in the coming years, my resolve was tested a decent amount in the early years of the investment with a decent amount of time that the investment had stayed below 50% of the value that I had put into the investment with several dips that were below 35% of the value of what I had put in, so it became way easier to maintain resolve as the investment got back into the black, that's for sure... but even through all of this, and even through having periods of really great BTC profits (on paper), I felt rich as fuck, but never really lost my hope and expectation that from wherever the BTC price is, if I am adding any to my BTC holdings (including using money that I had gotten from selling some BTC at higher prices) that I expected that any new BTC that I bought should perform in a kind of averaging of 6% per year.. so long as I continue to HODL those newly purchased BTC.  Of course, I have been cheating a bit on a regular basis, since about mid-to-late 2016 because my BTC has gained a profit cushion, and surely since about early-to-mid 2017, the cushion has been hardly even coming  lose to challenging my hopes for averaging at least 6% per year returns... with the simultaneous contrasting view that I am willing to ride it to zero, if needed (but we also do get a bit spoiled if we have been in profits for a decently long time, too).

In other words, BTC HODLers/accumulators are continuously getting shit circumstances thrown at them, including some of our current shit macro circumstances, and even accounting for the seemingly new and innovative shitcoin pumpening distractions... defi.. blah blah blah..

I continue to believe that there is nothing wrong with NOT taking for granted future BTC price performance, so for example, in most of April when we some of us may have feared that we could be getting stuck in a kind of $6k to $7k price range, there is nothing wrong with prepared both psychologically and financially for BTC prices to go in either direction or even projecting scenarios in which BTC prices might not return to supra 4 digits for a couple of years or longer.  To me, that seems like sound and prudent planning rather than demonstrating any kind of lack of BTC commitment... of course, if we are preparing for possible down in the $6k to $7k price range in April 2020, then it would have been lacking in prudence and soundness to either to have been selling on the way down or to be selling too much, so some of the preparations in that timeframe (price range) may well have been to have kept an adequate amount of dry powder (fiat), just in case some of the worse scenarios were to play out, such as another test of $3k or some worser scenarios.. so for each person, the kind of preparation is going to be different.. and some may have already run out of dry powder in that BTC price range, so they may have been faced with either HODL or skimming a bit of BTC off (hopefully profitable ones) to feel adequately prepared for any of the price directions, down, sideways or up.

Of course, now that we have been above $10k for a couple of weeks, there might be some feelings of smugness and even thinking that we are on our way up or even considering that the HODLers who were preparing for the possibility of more down in the $6k to $7k range in April were overly cautious or overly pessimistic, blah blah blah..

Of course, some younger peeps might be able to take more chances in betting upon up (or almost all on up), and/or even some peeps that have a decent ongoing expectation of ongoing good cashflows can take chances in betting upon up (or almost all on up), too, yet my practice and recommendation has been to strive as much as you can to prepare for either price direction, even when extremes happen and even when you may well be preparing a lot more in one direction than the other, you are still taking some reasonable and prudent measures both psychologically and financially to prepare for any of the directions, all at the same time.



Sure, we have strong BTC price prediction models, but we also have some potential for considerable variance from the various strong current BTC price prediction models, and we also have some possibilities that the seemingly strong current BTC price prediction models could break, too... in other words, BTC is not Turing complete (thankfully so), so it does continue to have some man-intervention vulnerabilities.. even if we downplay the likelihood of negative consequences from such man-intervention vulnerabilities.

I don't get caught up in the Tether FUD stories, and I consider Tether to largely be a positive force on bitcoin, bitcoin prices and of course gravitating into various shitcoins, too... but still providing a lot of liquidity in ways that might be more difficult to accomplish in a world without tether - even though bitcoin is still going to do good whether we have tether in this world or not.



Sure Caitlin Long is one of the most vocal about the rehypothication matter, and she is not the only person who is thinking about such tendencies that traditional financial entities have, which is also going to be tempting for many of the bitcoin exchanges and other third-party entities who hold BTC to inflate their values or not have the amount of BTC on hand that they claim to have  (so long as they can get away with it).  Yeah, I might not have solid information, but I am not going to act like these various third parties are going to be responsible and moral when we already know that they have pretty straight forward incentives to cheat so long as they do not get caught with their pants down.  Rehypothication is the most logical conclusion, and has been happening since bitcoin's inception (when the first third-party came into existence), and there is no reason to believe that it all of a suddenly stopped merely because BIG "honest" WALL Street players came into the scene.. Get real.. wall street players are even more likely to engage in shenanigans because they already know how to do it and get away with it... why would we need solid and direct evidence for such in order to have pretty strong senses that the rehypothication is an ongoing issue - until such time that there are meaningful holdings verification mechanisms in place, which currently, there are not.


Yes.  They can show you, but then they can play trickery with that, too.  Of course, BTC HODLers continue to be concerned about these kinds of transparency matters (or should I say lack of transparency?)..... I am hoping that some of them get fucked over BIG time by a BIG ass BTC price move to the upside and they do not have the BTC that they proclaimed to have.   Some of them might learn from that kind of situation, and hopefully not too many innocent regular peeps get burned in such process.

Seems like the various bcash tards, whether bch or bsv deserved to get reckt as fuck... Of course, there are a decent number of them who did retain (and maintain) some amount of hedge with bitcoin, so that hedging (even if covert) may have saved them from total implosion.

By the way, I am not going to write off the pumpability of various shitcoins from time to time in the coming years. Sure, over the longer run, they are quite likely to gravitate towards zero.. but at the same time, some of them are still going to maintain small amounts of value for long periods of time in the vein of zombie status - that is pumped every once in a while because they can... just silly to keep value in any of them, but some peeps are just silly and invest based on hopium and fantasy considerations rather than the boring haul of longer term value investing that sometimes takes a decent amount of time to carry out.. They even have impatience with BTC inspire of the relatively exponential growth that has happened in BTC's price history and the likelihood that BTC is going to continue to retain decent, strong and ongoing upwards growth accompanied by ongoing value gravitation into it.

Of course, we could get manipulation and we could get retracement, and sometimes part of the ploy to get bears to continue to place their shorts in order that they get rekkt when the "inevitable" correction does not come (or at least such retracement is delayed way beyond expectations).

In other words, sometimes volume is not really needed when the trend is your friend and the pressure continues to be UPpity...


Personally, I am not worried, and personally, in these actual times, I have assessed the ongoing BTC price movement to be both moving UP more than expected and also recovering from our dip down to $10,500 from a few days a go.. much better recovery than I expected... but we have seen this over and over and over, in bitcoinlandia.. the price just keeps moving up, up and up, while weak hands sell too much too soon, bears place shorts but the BTC price continues to trickle UPpity...  

Of course, no guarantees for sure in bitcoinlandia.. but you cannot say that we have not been to a similar kind of place before.. and even if we, ourselves, do not bank on UPpity (because we hardly give any shits), we surely do benefit from ongoing UPpity because we already placed our BTC bets years and years ago, and a lot of this ongoing price appreciation is just icing on the cake for so many of us longer term HODLers, rather than any of us really feeling that we either have to sell much if any BTC or that we are worried about catching some kind of short term BTC price top - even if we get a 1-3 month correction, and we have seen plenty of those, with a kind of ongoing "so what?" attitude.


Oh?   This bitcoin thing is starting to make some senses.   

Party poop!!!!!