That's an innovative way to turn lemon into lemonade.  

I have been thinking similarly... I have been expecting more correction or more flat.. but she seems to be wanting to gravitate UPpity... for some strange reason.  Go figure?


What if I cannot afford a whole bitcoin?  WhatchaIamGONNA dooooo?

Exactly... still waiting for that magnificent bottom that is going to be "inevitable."  We are surely "on track."

Thanks sgbett and other diptwats for these nonsensical bottom calls that have allowed smarter peeps to continue to accumulate BTC over the past few years.

Bitcoin is already successful as fuck.


Sure you can set some measure in the future as do or die or as some kind of meaningful measurement, but who cares?

Bitcoin is still progressing, advancing and adding to network effects.

There are also a lot of ways that bitcoin success can be measured, and surely, I bitcoin is far along the spectrum of making progress whether we measure from two years ago, five years ago, or some other interval short of its 11.5 year to nearly 12 year life (whether we are measuring from the release of the white paper or the first block that was subsequently mined).


Why not both?

I can concede that bitcoin is an experiment, and I can proclaim that with even a current status assessment bitcoin is successful as fuck.. maybe even more successful than what could have been imagined at previous prudently attempting to project forward viewpoints.

Of course, another assessment can be made in 2030 to measure where bitcoin is at... which I can also proclaim is a so fucking what?  We will see it when we see it... bitcoin is already successful and who cares about 2030.. except just make sure that you have some bitcoin in case it catches on (which it already has.. hint.. hint... hint)...   

I will admit that I enjoy harassing any member who shares some of his/her details in this thread, and that is part of the potential disadvantages of sharing information, especially anything that is somewhat specific... ...

Ultimately, any balance is going to be personally tailored (or at least it better be), but if any guy/gal here shares some somewhat specific details within this thread, they are more or less fair game for batting around the plusses and minuses of such planned strategies....  LFC does tend to be a good sport about it, including bearing with some of the repetition that comes through these public discussions... that he partly brings upon himself... 

Actually, there are likely a whole hell of a lot of examples of guys who sold way too many BTC too soon, but they do not tend to be lambasted when they are selling on the way up... and sometimes, the devil is in the details.. and we will have to see how LFC carries this out or if he discloses how he carries it out (even if he shares some of it after he had already done it a month earlier or some other purposefully delayed disclosure, if he chooses to do so).

I share a decent amount of my details too.. .. and I don't mind batting around ideas or disagreements about some of my details... and in a similar light, I don't really feel sorry for anyone who might get beaten up a bit regarding some of their details that they have chosen to disclose..   Many of us likely learn from these kinds of disclosures, and hopefully, the Opsec of members, is not really disclosed in very great details... or we can keep some of the details amorphous enough to facilitate some amounts of plausible deniability along the way.


I am so glad that you remembered me on my very special day... I mean, there are not even enough days in the week for every member to have his/her own very special day, now is there?

I am over-joyed....  cannot hardly contain my level of citteeeeee - keeping small letters for now.. I will play it off...

As long as you are comfortable, ultimately.

Of course, we are going to have to see how it all plays out, and surely I have not been suggesting to NOT take out anything.  Probably closer to my suggestion has been to take out a little bit all along.. especially once accumulation goals are met, then even maintenance can allow for a kind of ongoing removing of value along the way, so with my ONLY speculating about your details (and perhaps kind of having some decent ideas where you are at), I still remain inclined towards emphasizing incrementalism and beating you up about it (of course, just rhetorically) from time to time.  

Of course, in the stage of your life where you are at, finances/age or whatever, you still seem MOAR inclined towards accumulating than me, and I am more on the maintenance end of the spectrum... and I am less shy about various deviations into liquidations, here and there, too... So, surely, I had already made a representation that I had largely "over accumulated" in 2015-ish, so that also causes me less shyness in terms of liquidating a bit here and there.. and if you are not quite in that "over accumulation" phase, then you are going to look at aspects of the whole matter a bit differently from me... but I still will emphasize incrementalism, whether we are talking about you specifically or any other persons who are similarly situated.. which likely are a decent number of similarly-situated members who are actively participating in this thread or merely reading this thread.

Maybe I am a bit envious, too (don't read that as a hater, because I appreciate if some members might be doing better than me in terms of accounting for their age timeline or even other aspects of building their wealth through bitcoin), that you have already reached a kind of financial investment success (even by identifying and getting into bitcoin) that is outperforming any investment that I had been making in my 20s and 30s..? so there is that angle too.  

By the way, each of us recognize that there is a pretty BIG difference between building wealth on paper, and being able to really live it up from the proceeds of the investments that any of us has made by pulling some of the value out of one investment and putting it somewhere else, including having some comfort in holding decent amounts of extra wealth in cash because we have wealth in other areas that are actually working for us... so yeah, pulling out some wealth from bitcoin and putting it into other investments, keeping some in cash and using some on hookers, lambos and blow can all be reasonable steps, also including making other upgrades to the consumption level and standard of living are reasonable steps, too... so surely not meaning to assert those to be potentially prudent and reasonable planning strategies.


infofront (or maybe someone else?  Perhaps?) probably deleted the post, because I did not even see it... .. besides the snipped quote, here.

Edit:  I saw another later post, by the above-referenced dweeb....   Probably his days are numbered in this thread, if he cannot at least figure out some kind of more subtle way to weave-in his shitcoin pumpenings.. but we will see.. maybe he will convince us all to sell our BTC for his shitcoins?  Perhaps?  Anything is possible, almost.

You damned bear.   


Haven't been hearing much about your leveraged trading recently, d_eddie?

You don't got time for that?

Or are you just not sharing with us?

You gave it up for lent?

Hahahaha

If you had happened to be in the area when the building started burning, and all that you had were your two legs for transportation, then you would likely could have gotten a mile away within less than 20 minutes (if you were so out of shape that you could only walk), but just getting 5 football fields away might have been enough, if you were able to take cover (or lie flat on the ground in the middle of a park/or the other side of a building that did not end up falling down) at the time of the explosion, perhaps?

You are not going to be a bit pissed off LFC because you had sold 75%-ish of your stash at around the $75k blow-off top fake out that might come around September/October-ish 2021?  because remember you were planning to buy back lower?  would you second guess that selling 75% might be a bit much at those lower prices, even though it will both bring you a lot of pleasure and it will lock in a lot of profits.. but then you end up missing another 3.5x?  Sure your 25% is still riding, so you would not have missed out everything, even though you are feeling pretty rich as fuck with your 75% cashing out.

Yes... what can we do exactly?

There are always going to be tragic world events and even macro problems, maybe sometimes worse than other times.

I, personally, am not in a rush to get through my life, and I believe that happens somewhat as you become older - while at the same time, we are witnessing 2020 as a kind of transitional year for bitcoin... it seems to be a kind of confirmation of the bull market status...  similar to what 2016 was a kind of confirmation of the bull pattern and similar to how 2015 and 2019 were very similar to one another, even though they did not exactly rhyme because 2019 and a BIG ASS bump in the middle and 2015 did not have that.

I am almost uncomfortable seeing how much the fractal patterns compare to one another, even though the specifics are a bit different, there surely seems to be some inability for the patterns of a lot of human behavior, adoption, network effects developing and expanding out to end up falling into a kind of in-the-ballpark range - sort of what PlanB's stock to flow model anticipates ends up playing into reality.

Who woulda thunk?




Bitcoin has been amazing like that.  You should get a little, in case it catches on.   

People predict all kinds of things.  I find it difficult to understand why so many people want to ascribe ONLY status to themselves... I see this quite a bit.  Maybe I am too sensitive?  Perhaps?


Exactamente!!!!

There are just too many things happening to be saying that you know all the variables, beyond getting lucky or maybe having a lot of the variables right and having a pretty decent sense of probabilities (but likely still getting matters wrong on a regular basis in terms of direction, degree or both.. or just don't specify too much in order to always be right.. there's that, too). 

Of course, that is the million dollar question.

Personally, I believe that we are easily within striking distance of returning to 4 digits before we surpass $13,880 - but once we surpass $13,880 it wlll become less likely to return to 4 digits.

Also, if we surpass $17,250 without returning to 4 digits, then it becomes even a farther away likelihood that 4 digits will ever be witnessed again.

Sure, you say that it is inevitable, but your assignment of "inevitability" seems to be too high of an assignment of probabilities because there are very few things that are guaranteed in BTC prices within bitcoinlandia (except perhaps the price that we currently are at, while we are at it).



Agree.  All important factors.


There seems to be increased fractional reserve and/or rehypothecation going on in bitcoin too, which could end up having some explosive effects on BTC price... NOT for sure, but possible.

Probably, I should NOT have appeared to challenge your seeming insightfulness.



#Justnotsaying.

One of the significant steps towards actual sorcerer status is passing through sorcery wannabe status first.   

I have been becoming such a quibbler in recent times... but there seems to be a theory that past points of resistance will continue to serve as future points of resistance, even though the degree of their resistance may or may have not been changed based on subsequent BTC price moves...

So we had $12,100-ish.. and then we get $13,880-ish.....

What I am saying is that both of you are picking numbers that are really in the middle of those other seemingly more logical numbers, which just seem like the two of you are picking random and "awkward" numbers rather than numbers that would logically have much if any meaning - beyond mere luck or randomness, amiNOTrite?  this time?


I have an awkward feeling, like this:




Exactly!!!!!

It's awkward as fuck.   

 

Yes, you did.

Rationale = random.  




 


Potential next resistance point seems to be $13,880 - but geez, timeline must be one of the BIGGER difficult matters to pinpoint

... and geez, end of the week you are saying, LFC?  You must be talking about just a wee bit more than two days from now?  Perhaps it could happen?  Perhaps.  

I would concede that $13k is significantly easier to reach and exceed than $14k currently, and not merely because $13k is closer than $14k (but that closeness is an undeniable, real-world, technical factor) but because $14k can only be reached after going through $13,880 resistance, to the extent that such resistance really does exist and such resistance is not merely a product of our collective perhaps, shell
shocked/PTSD? fears.

In other words:  go bitcoin go (doesn't someone else say that?) 

I don't understand the need to speak in superlatives.  Ok.  sure, bitcoin is likely the best, and sure bitcoin is likely going to be the best into the future, because bitcoin has a lot of strong fundamentals that are continuing to persist and continuing to NOT get fucked up.  On the other hand, we are taking a snapshot in time, and even though we have a current status that sets bitcoin up for continuing to outperform other assets, there are no guarantees in bitcoin or in other aspects of life, including the extent to which other assets or other human behavior can play off of bitcoin in one way or another - multi-causal influences that contribute to a certain amount of unknowingness in the future, even if the past can be described with more absolute-isms because the past has already happened.




multi-causal influences - and likely there would be only small likelihoods that value would gravitate into bitcoin all of a sudden... the whole bitcoin system just does NOT seem set up to handle all-at-once gravitation of value, even if bitcoin is the most sound of assets, currently... and even if bitcoin would just have to absorb whatever value it could take, if it were presented with such an unlikely scenario in which all value would be redirected towards it.

Another reason that it would be unlikely for all of the value to be directed into bitcoin would be that currently, bitcoin still remains so damned small (something like less than 1% world adoption), so it hardly even makes sense that a lot of value would flow into bitcoin until it first gradually grows (and gradual can also seem like exponential while we are caught int the middle of trying to recognize and appreciate such "happening" growth).

Might disincentivize updating... at least on the margins... which could add up to a decent number of people not updating to better security.


Can we speak for the average person?  or the average bitcoiner?  Even if you do not practice, you run out of skills and confidence, and humans are subject to making errors - even smart-ass peeps.

Even though long, I kind of prefer mcdoctorduderino... for some strange reason... it seems to roll off the tongue better.

It is possible that we are saying very similar things, even though you seem to be emphasizing the trading angle quite a bit more than me, and for sure, I am not opposed to trading, especially BIG swing trading and also a kind incrementalism that involves shaving off some profits on the way UP.

However, I do believe that you and I emphasize degree a bit different, and you seem more inclined to recommend that investors get into trading early on - while I believe that trading is a technique that you might start after you have already established a target position and thereafter you would largely only trade after tailorizing some techniques that were fitting for your own circumstances - so there is no real correct answer including that BTC price direction is very difficult to figure out, even when the direction is seeming obvious.. and surely the direction really seems obvious after the fact.. but not so much while in it.. even though you seem to be suggesting that regular peeps should be able to figure these directional matters out.. especially with a little focus or training.. which I believe is much more difficult than you are making it out to be.. even if on the face of it, it seems easy-peasy.

.
 


Fair enough.. but I still say it is really difficult to know, and for example, if a person has allocated $400 per month, which would be $100 per week, they could attempt to be strategic about it, or maybe they just invest $50 every week and attempt to be strategic about the other $50.  I just have a lot of doubts about being able to know and attempting to be too strategic has high likelihoods of causing the perfect to become the enemy of the good... even though I understand he phenomenon that you are describing.

 


If you are "investing no more than you can afford to lose" then maybe you should not be giving any fucks, rather than being in "pain" from such short to medium term (and seemingly long term) that ends up going up in the long run.. .. even though the short to medium term remains uncomfortable to some degree.

 

did not work for me to cause me to panic.   I did not invest more than I could afford to lose, and I was willing to ride it down to zero if need be, because it was just a relatively smaller (or extra) portion of my income.. and I still had all of my expenses, entertainment, emergency fund, etc covered by other funds. Sure, the amount invested added up during time, but I was stil just taking from an already decided set-aside allocated amount.. that I was willing to lose if prices kept going down, but I had a long term assessment that the asset was likely to perform well in the longer run... couple of years or even that my investment turned into a longer time horizon to allow it to play out. 

Therefore, I did not sell any of my bitcoins, especially during my accumulation phase and even largely during my maintenance phase (which seems to be where I am at currently, even though I am thinking that I will advance to some kind of phase that has liquidations aspects in the coming few years)... except for I would sometimes sell strategically based on formulaic price rises that I had predetermined, and any BTC that I sell that goes beyond the formulaic amounts, I tend to replace, unless I can just plug any of my possibly relatively small amounts of sales into my already existing formulaic buy back practices.

 

Perhaps we agree a little bit here.  I do agree with figuring out ways to structure strategy to attempt to remove a lot of emotion.. so if you plan to buy on the way down or you plan to sell on the way up.. you predetermine amounts that work for you so that you don't really run out of fiat to buy or BTC to sell if the BTC price goes running in one direction or another.

 

Sure, there are likely ways to take a decent amount of psychology out of investing.. so sure, even creating trading strategies that hedge or try to take out psychology seem to be very difficult techniques, especially if any kind of leverage is involved.. and that is part of the reason that I become a bit skeptical of any leverage, and I tend to recognize some more moderate ways of attempting to achieve similar goals without leverage (or only limited leverage if you can figure out how to properly employ it).  Even just simple techniques of going long and closing longs, can become complicated, and if you add leverage on top of that, whewfta... becomes even more complicated to figure out.. and more likely to screw up.

 

Hey... I like a lot of your posts, so I suppose that we are just batting around some ideas here.  Each person does have to decide for themself what they believe is going to work and to try to put their ideas to practice.. and sure sometimes it does not work, sometimes they learn and sometimes they do not.

Even if you, exstasie, do not recall times in which you may have influenced folks to sit and wait, even though they maybe should have just bought, rather than waiting, sometimes bearish calls do cause people to overly play bearish scenarios or whatever, and of course, we can sometimes blame them, too for assigning too high of a probability to downward BTC price movements that do not end up materializing... so yeah, buy on every dip or buy every week, or some variation of these techniques are going to vary between different person, and maybe we even argue about which ones work better under which scenarios and if some of them just work better as an overall rule.. for example, when in doubt,  buy a little within your weekly budget rather than waiting.. or maybe just buy the whole weeks allowance.. surely discretionary matters, exist here..