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9981  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 16, 2012, 05:00:43 AM
USD shoots up to $81.35.  what happened to $80?

The numbers seem to indicate that you are referring to the USDX.  It is a unitless index.  I mention it because it makes people who apply a '$' sign appear to be a bit ignorant of economics.

One the topic of the USDX, I suspect that the 82 range is not maintainable for long before things start to shudder frighteningly.  I look for this to provoke QE-3 prematurely...and with the anticipated consequences for PMs.

9982  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: MT.Gox will not release over $26,000 USD on: May 16, 2012, 03:02:18 AM

But the real kicker here is first they lie about the Dwolla transfer - 6 business days my ass, when I had the transfer in for longer than that (and this was prior to the 6 business days deal, where it was previously instant), it never completed and had to be canceled.  Then they tell me I have to mail them (via snail mail) notarized documents for their "AML team" to "review." I've already sent them proof of my personhood, any further documents I would send them could just as easily be forged as what I've already sent them, so it's a useless request... not to mention it would then force me to wait for an undetermined amount of time for the documents to arrive in the mail, then the "AML Team" to "review" them.


Oh, so it's an anti-money laundering issue? I guess my question is relevant.

Oh Jeez.  Um...The Joint ask you a question.  Lots of people are waiting...

9983  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 16, 2012, 02:11:30 AM
if gold gets below 1523, all Hell is gonna break loose...

Yeah the Chinese will be filling their vaults..

i can see you're watching like a Hawk. Wink

Not really Wink.  I have zero need to sell anytime in the next few years. 

you know that 1523 WILL be tested.  gold needs guys like you to step up right now. Grin

The driving force for me to buy is when I have an excess of USD moreso than what the price of Au or Ag happens to be, though those are not completely irrelevant factors.

I've been watching like a hawk since I expect another need to dump USD coming up.  If the rocket will wait for me, 'I jump eeen it.'

9984  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: MT.Gox will not release over $26,000 USD on: May 16, 2012, 12:09:51 AM

...

Why should the bitcoin community consider his whining if he doesn't want to discuss this issue in an objective manner?

I am considering it because I would like to know who is going to fuck with me and how if/when I decide I wish to liquidate some or all of my stash.

9985  Economy / Trading Discussion / Re: MT.Gox will not release over $26,000 USD on: May 15, 2012, 11:47:39 PM
Inaba, do you care to publicly disclose the source of this 26,000$ USD that you have managed to acquire in bitcoin?

(mostly to watch thread, but...)

Why the fuck should he?  It's not a huge amount of money, he's been around a while and a cursory glance shows that he's had some interest in mining.  One of the niceties of Bitcoin is that you don't have to document every financial action for a gaggle of nosy jerk-offs.  Or one would hope it is that way.

9986  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin up. on: May 15, 2012, 11:34:06 PM

General Comment:  Bitcoin recovering...let's hope the trend holds.

Another Score:  5/15/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     7.50         5.03       + 0.67
Gold    1492         1545      + 1.04

--------------------------
ref (for future updates):
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-08zeg2011-05-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv  (change date)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html  (hist cgi at bottom)
mult=now/year_ago

Another Score:  5/14/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     8.50         5.00       + 0.59
Gold    1495         1555      + 1.04


Another Score:  5/12/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     5.40         4.95       + 0.92
Gold    1505         1580      + 1.05

Another Score:  5/11/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     5.00         4.95       +  0.99
Gold    1505         1580      + 1.05

Another Score:  5/10/12  (kitco down, gold est from INO.)
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.82         4.90       + 1.28
Gold    1510         1593      + 1.05

Another Score:  5/9/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.75         5.03       + 1.34
Gold    1510         1590      + 1.05

Another Score:  5/8/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.64         5.03       + 1.38
Gold    1497         1605      + 1.07
9987  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 15, 2012, 10:44:43 PM
yowser Baby!  where the hell did those bid walls come from!!!! Cheesy

Probably a lot of Bitcoinica material before the keystone...er...bitcoin police work out the details.  Shift the look back and forth in an exchange to spread the taint.  Thiefs seem to be willing to take a loss as a cost of doing business, and it can provide opportunities to tank up if one wishes to increase (or decrease) their position.  The allinvain haul seemed to be in play on Tradehill when I was interested in increasing my position and I figure I got in the neighborhood of a 10% discount because of it.

9988  Economy / Speculation / Re: So what is fueling the resistance now? Is that potential Greece collapse? on: May 15, 2012, 09:25:11 PM
I am just wondering,  what Europeans are doing to protect their savings if they are worried? Apparently it's not gold, silver, or Bitcoins... USD???

As best I can tell, most Europeans are as stupid as most Americans.  So I suspect that what they are doing is, for the most part, not much of anything.

9989  Economy / Speculation / Re: So what is fueling the resistance now? Is that potential Greece collapse? on: May 15, 2012, 08:58:11 PM

Although it seems like there could be, I've never seen much indication that the external economy impacts Bitcoin much.  And of course Bitcoin is such a tiny spec that it isn't going to influence anything externally.  So, I would not expect general macro trends involving the EU to have much impact on Bitcoin.

Now, the way Greece could have a giant impact on Bitcoin is by imposing capital controls within their boarders (thus making the advantages solution suddenly very obvious even to the slowest members of the population.)  There is a non-trivial chance that Greece will do just that.  Hopefully the Bitcoin community will take some actions to maximize the positive impact of such an event.

9990  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 15, 2012, 08:31:26 PM
Another example of the ridiculous overhead for gold. 

Gold refining and verification processes are the equivalent of Bitcoin mining. In both cases, the overhead ensures quality and security.

Bitcoin mining is WAY more than that.  It also has the chance to replace the entire banking system.

In point of fact, gold has a much better chance of 'replacing the entire banking system.'  I wish it were otherwise, but as they say, 'if wishes were horses...'

Furthermore, the old adage of 'be careful what you wish for' might come into play.  Either a metal or Bitcoin backed monetary system has much potential for abuse and general misery.

Digging way back into my memory for one of the reasons Bitcoin appealed to me and one thing it 'had over' gold as the backing for a monetary system is exactly the fact that Bitcoin COULD fail, and more importantly, the fact that it could fail at the hands of the 99%.  Bitcoin derives the core of it's strength from the users, and hoarders could end up completely shit out of luck if they don't act right.

9991  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [Emergency ANN] Bitcoinica site is taken offline for security investigation on: May 15, 2012, 08:07:38 PM
...
Mr. Seale is a facilitator for this fund and was instrumental in bringing investment into Bitcoinica LP to support it's operation and growth.
...

Please extend my condolences to the investors.  You win some, you lose some.

Investors should be warned that Bitcoin is a bit like The Hulk.  It seems to have a nasty tendency to indiscriminately smash people and things around it...at least in business land.

9992  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 15, 2012, 06:45:54 PM

...

It would be interesting to see if there is a popularization of gold bullion in the form factor of a spaghetti noodle.  This would allow some amount of non-destructive testing based on thermal expansion, and semi-non-destructive testing by giving the unit something of a bending test.  I guess the effectiveness would depend on what sort of metallurgy is possible with tungsten in order to impact its modulus of thermal expansion and elastic characteristics.


Another example of the ridiculous overhead for gold. 

Not to disagree with you point, but one could also argue that it is also an indication of the ridiculous value of the element.


Or, just use your private keys to decode a public ledger.

Physical PMs and Bitcoin each have their strengths, weaknesses, and potential failure modes.  But dealing with neither PMs nor Bitcoin is particularly difficult so I'm happily doing both and anticipate continuing to do so making whatever adjustments I deem appropriate as conditions evolve.

9993  Bitcoin / Bitcoin Discussion / Re: [Emergency ANN] Bitcoinica site is taken offline for security investigation on: May 15, 2012, 06:37:28 PM

I don't mean to be rude but I don't understand how people on this forum manage to get scammed literally every day by something new.... and the worst part is.. nothing ever happens.. You guys will make a collection thread no doubt.. and that will be that..

It must be embarrassing for some of you.... ?

Not a great way to make friends and influence people.  Oh well...it's basically true and sometimes the truth hurts.


My unpopular opinion is that these ripoffs actually benefit the Bitcoin economy:
  • Vulnerabilities are discovered, security awareness and best practices are spread while Bitcoin is still in beta
  • Stolen Bitcoins get into circulation and level the initial imbalance of early adopters vs. others
  • Risk of theft counteracts hoarding and the deflationary spiral and encourages people to spend Bitcoins while they still have them


#1 and #2 were my opinion when I was initially interested in Bitcoin.  And remain so.

#3 I had not really thought of and do not agree with.  Possibly because I am a hoarder and because I have never worries to much about people stealing my stuff due to negligence on my part.

9994  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 15, 2012, 06:23:11 PM

...

It would be interesting to see if there is a popularization of gold bullion in the form factor of a spaghetti noodle.  This would allow some amount of non-destructive testing based on thermal expansion, and semi-non-destructive testing by giving the unit something of a bending test.  I guess the effectiveness would depend on what sort of metallurgy is possible with tungsten in order to impact its modulus of thermal expansion and elastic characteristics.


Another example of the ridiculous overhead for gold. 

Not to disagree with you point, but one could also argue that it is also an indication of the ridiculous value of the element.

As I think about things, one could have a pretty handy and pretty fool proof device which consists of a water bath, a bending gauge and a length gauge all in one unit.  This would measure density, thermal, and elastic properties in one fairly quick and easy run (assuming my spaghetti form factor bullion idea.)  As a optional features, throw in some sort of a spectrometer to look for other elements and maybe a piezo operated device to characterize the resonate characteristics of the sample.

I officially claim intellectual property rights over all of the above ideas Smiley

9995  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 15, 2012, 05:58:31 PM
And most of that "official" gold is really just paper...

Or tungsten salted bars  Wink

Someone here was planning to 'melt tungsten' and pour it into hollowed out gold bars.  Good luck with that Wink



have to do it the other way around, tungstens melting temp is like 5x that of gold..

Au: mp: 1337 Kelvin
W:  mp: 3695 K

You might be able to melt tungsten in a graphite or diamond crucible, but I would guess that applying and holding that much energy in the apparatus would be a challenge.  And, of course, it's likely to turn the recipient gold container into a molten mess almost instantly unless the mass was so big as to make the whole adventure rather pointless.

But anyway, it would be easy enough to drill out the gold and hammer in some pegs which is almost certainly one of the techniques used.

It would be interesting to see if there is a popularization of gold bullion in the form factor of a spaghetti noodle.  This would allow some amount of non-destructive testing based on thermal expansion, and semi-non-destructive testing by giving the unit something of a bending test.  I guess the effectiveness would depend on what sort of metallurgy is possible with tungsten in order to impact its modulus of thermal expansion and elastic characteristics.

9996  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 15, 2012, 05:40:09 PM
And most of that "official" gold is really just paper...

Or tungsten salted bars  Wink

Someone here was planning to 'melt tungsten' and pour it into hollowed out gold bars.  Good luck with that Wink

9997  Economy / Speculation / Re: [Daily Speculation Poll] :: 8$ here we come? on: May 15, 2012, 05:09:06 PM
$7.2x was the 2012 high.  Deal with it.

My goodness, is it the first of January 2013 already?

You cannot possibly know the above; it's ridiculous to make such definitive claims about what the 2012 highs or lows will be until it's not 2012 anymore.

I was trying to decide whether there was a greater than 50/50 chance of seeing $8 this year was pretty much on the fence.  But Proudhon has a good record as a contra-indicator (as well as an epic troll*), so this is tipped me toward thinking it likely that we will.


* ya, ya; pot calls kettle black...

9998  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 15, 2012, 12:16:07 AM
i think its fair to say that today we heard a "snap".  a snap in the nerves of the many vs. the nerves of one.

the problem is, i don't see this changing for a long time.  we are about to breach the 1523 level and once that happens it will get even uglier.

As I've explained, the dip in the price of PM's was entirely anticipated for fundamental reasons.

For from my nerves 'snapping', nothing would make me happier than to see the value of USD increase on the USDX and the USD price of PM's decrease and hold for another month-ish when I'm expecting a chunk of unwanted USD and will be looking for a place to stuff it.  I am hoping against hope the situation can persist that long, or preferably get even 'better'.  It's possible that Greece and the EU will produce a very large gift for me at a very opportune time.  We'll see.

9999  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. on: May 14, 2012, 11:26:37 PM
oh my miscreanity, oh my. Shocked

I knew it.  You don't know shit.  This thread is worthless.

you're right.  i don't know shit.  move along...



You really can't expect cyperdoc to share his valuable material for free right here in front of God and everybody!

Why don't you see if you can trade him some magical crystals for a subscription to his newsletter?

10000  Economy / Speculation / Re: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin up. on: May 14, 2012, 09:10:50 PM

Inspired by silverbox's update...

General Comment:  Bitcoin Sad  Harshest of tokes, dude.


Another Score:  5/14/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     8.50         5.00       + 0.59
Gold    1495         1555      + 1.04

--------------------------
ref (for future updates):
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#czsg2011-05-08zeg2011-05-08ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv  (change date)
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html  (hist cgi at bottom)
mult=now/year_ago


Another Score:  5/12/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     5.40         4.95       + 0.92
Gold    1505         1580      + 1.05

Another Score:  5/11/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     5.00         4.95       +  0.99
Gold    1505         1580      + 1.05


Another Score:  5/10/12  (kitco down, gold est from INO.)
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.82         4.90       + 1.28
Gold    1510         1593      + 1.05


Another Score:  5/9/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.75         5.03       + 1.34
Gold    1510         1590      + 1.05


Another Score:  5/8/12
          year ago    now       delta mult
BTC     3.64         5.03       + 1.38
Gold    1497         1605      + 1.07

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