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I'd be interested in researching this a bit more as we all know how the FTX situation ended for the market. If we're starting to see obvious cases of entities using paper Bitcoin and not being able to cover client holdings, it is time to say goodbye to the market for a couple years.
Would a repeat of the FTX scenario necessarily play out to the downside? I would think so. If a company holding a lot of coins on behalf of users turned out not to have them, it would set off an investigation as well as bankruptcy. Assets that were being held by the company would be frozen and users would have themselves trapped in a long legal battle in hopes to recover anything. The market would see this as a breakdown and a lot of people speculating on the price of Bitcoin would view this as a sign to exit the market. It's best if everything is functioning as advertised. Just sayin': the 2013 version of trying to fill a gaping exchange coin hole meant pamping eet almost 100x in a year Interesting thoughts, but sometimes your terse and barely hinting style is a bit hard to follow. Maybe something big is brewing when one of the main casino's spot arb starts to get seriously outta wack like way back?
ELI5: How is the spot arb getting out of whack? Is someone doing something? What are they doing? Paperization runs the risk of price discovering there are no bailouts: a covering willybot with current market dimensions could produce spectactular results
Could you elaborate on that? No spreads are outta wack and this is merely a hypothetical scenario regarding paper games. If Mikey, "treasuries", etc exercise claims bigly (and if someone turns out to be playing), the price will go up where pockets of paper live unless they double down to compensate. You mean "corrective" shorting or similar foul play? Yes Also consider that if the gubmint/sec/cftc begin gynecologizing US-based exchanges, casino games they've been greenlit to run since and before "regulation through enforcement" would be in jeopardy, which would also have the effect of tamping down any back room naughtiness. You mean regulation through enforcement could tamp down some of the trickery? Before "T2: Firing Day", exchanges were free to unload questionably legal scam tokens that they themselves funded and took a stake in, counter trade users to take all their leveraged moniez, freeze accounts arbitrarily, overcollect sensitive information for later loss or sale, etc- all for the periodic wells notice shakedown and an office visit with Gary. Since January, established players have been free to do all of the above without fear of persecutionary prosecution and without a vig. One might imagine fewer scams with a microscope focused on Armstrong's few remaining follicles? My favorite theory re:21 - SBF was a patsy weapon sent to kneecap native players to move in and take over at a discount. The turd pedigree of that org is asstounding and tells you all you need to know |
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A glass of copium for battered diminishing returns downers/doubters/doomers: would the likes of Fink and Trump Inc. have backed up the truck for the last year plus if coin wasn't going to be institutionalized for appreciation moving forward? Timing's always still questionable, of course, but member that
Poors gamble
Normies invest
Elites rig
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Maybe something big is brewing when one of the main casino's spot arb starts to get seriously outta wack like way back?
ELI5: How is the spot arb getting out of whack? Is someone doing something? What are they doing? Paperization runs the risk of price discovering there are no bailouts: a covering willybot with current market dimensions could produce spectactular results
Could you elaborate on that? No spreads are outta wack and this is merely a hypothetical scenario regarding paper games. If Mikey, "treasuries", etc exercise claims bigly (and if someone turns out to be playing), the price will go up where pockets of paper live unless they double down to compensate. Sadly, some folk are legally required to custody with scammers, so they'll eventually learn the hard way (or maybe not)? Such games would be easier if an entity knows a buyer in size cannot/will never withdraw a claim. Also consider that if the gubmint/sec/cftc begin gynecologizing US-based exchanges, casino games they've been greenlit to run since and before "regulation through enforcement" would be in jeopardy, which would also have the effect of tamping down any back room naughtiness. Or maybe any vig would simply be paid differently or to an alternate party? What's that you say? "Publicly traded company"..."CZ jailed"...Where's the surveillance? Is BNB really so popular? *Pure speculation for entertainment purposes onlyI'd be interested in researching this a bit more as we all know how the FTX situation ended for the market. If we're starting to see obvious cases of entities using paper Bitcoin and not being able to cover client holdings, it is time to say goodbye to the market for a couple years.
Would a repeat of the FTX scenario necessarily play out to the downside? |
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Maybe something big is brewing when one of the main casino's spot arb starts to get seriously outta wack like way back?
Paperization runs the risk of price discovering there are no bailouts: a covering willybot with current market dimensions could produce spectactular results
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Brought to you by FTX and BlockFi, subscribe to my newsletter, buy my treasury company stock, etc, etc I believe the relevant quote here is, don’t shoot the messenger. Take a look at these two charts and tell me we aren’t about to see a repeat of 2008. Inflation has held the housing market up so far, and it seems obvious the fix for this is more inflation. That might save the housing market from massive losses, but it is going to destroy the consumer. Everything is going to be on sale in a year, including Bitcoin.   Dey gonna print grandpa's barn condo a third heloc to keep em in golf cart tires and golden corral rather than let prices fall in ongoingly real terms. After dip printing (if), a considerable sum leaks into the ultimately scarce revolutionary cybercoin |
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Brought to you by FTX and BlockFi, subscribe to my newsletter, buy my treasury company stock, etc, etc |
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the summer game is wear 'em out scare 'em out no volatility zap you with a 1.2% fee.
May as well just use ie PayPal XD or similar garbage, sans onerous AMLKYC taint scan blockchain entry requirements, for small amounts, no? |
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I recall years ago looking up Max Keisers alleged networth, and many websites were saying $5 million blah blah.. Now he is a billionaire? Could be, since he could have had bought 10s of thousands of bitcoin and still only ended up with a few thousand and still end up being close to a billionaire... though even with today's prices, a person would still need to have around 9k bitcoin or more to be a billionaire.. I suppose it is possible. bro prob made a mint off auroracoin and keisercoin =D One of the advantages of anyone getting bitcoin for under $1 would have had been the ability to accumulate a lot for very little and even if he shaved off profits along the way, he still might have had retained a lot of coins.
think of gavin types, who, reluctantly and with contempt, prob still control several odd thou or more
That and the fact that they just basically told the rest of the community to fuck off.
The whole thing smells to me to be honest.
maybe 0.5.3 is the one true Bit Coin after all?! |
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These bulls always end with unsustainable buying- even 21. Is 150-200k even overheated right now with all moving averages advancing so gradually thus far? Wen llama?
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how many wholecorners are there? probably less than 21m
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So... it is a Friday night, and I am feeling loquacious. And no, that does not mean drubk. Or Drumpt. On Whisskey or anything else... sue me. pip paf poofle. If I were not lazy I could dig around and find a post where i said something along the lines of "...Until the powers that be figure out that ETH (or ETH like chains) will allow them to print all the digital money they want". And much more recently I warned that the ETFs were a mixed blessing. Increasing adoption at the cost of centralization of holdings... following as similar pattern as gold. A couple months or 3 back I said something on NOSTR along the lines of "prepare yourself to hear big 'maxi' type talking heads to start to front for 'stable coins'". *sigh* As much as I love to be right from a sort of egotistic view... I wish I was wrong. That said. We are not in the absolute woods. The powers that be are taking a foothold for sure. But they are also realizing there is a strong incentive to keep bolstering the network now that they are invested. Think of the prior example of miner manufacturers "testing" their chips by "burning them in for months" lol. Butterfly labs.. Bitmain. And now people like Saylor and Lummis are inching towards the idea of issuing "stable coins" to save the USD. And this mean ETH opr Solana or whatever other shitcoin centralized garbage is in vogue. And maybe also BTC on LND? ( https://web.archive.org/web/20241201051720/https://www.weforum.org/organizations/lightning-labs/ ) It looks a lot like this is where we are going. Ultimately all this does nothing other than change timeliness, and offer opportunities. Bitcoin will never stop being king. And more money coming into the digital realm means more money to get parked in the corn. Eventually. Ok... loquacious mode off. Read and merit (or hate) before i delete it lol. dollar ur mother if u want dollar -donald dorsey, blockstream ceo |
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Dear Doomsayers,
Shorters at the halving pandemic have a 100% mortality rate to date.
Good luck!
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- People remain at home.
- Those who are carriers can't spread the virus to other people.
- Those who don't have it can't get it.
- In total isolation with 100% follow-through rate, it would only take 14-28 days for the problem to subside completely.
- Seeing as how that is not a viable alternative, I think 60 days of fairly stringent quarantine measures is reasonable. People do have to go out to get food and supplies, and people do have to be present at workplaces to deliver them.
- Everybody else whose employment is deemed non-essential will suffer financially.
- A relatively large amount of people are going to die from inadequate medical care.
This is the best case scenario.
Do you disagree with any of these premises or conclusions?
- Shutting down the US economy for 6+ weeks will destroy a majority of small->medium businesses and raise da unemployment thru da roof who benefits? |
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How long you people think we will be under quarantine ? 46 days (roughly, average) Yeah, I agree. In 2017, I was getting phone calls from friends of friends asking for advice about whether to invest in BTC and a range of alts popular at the time. I was shocked by their lack of knowledge. Yes, just wanting a get-rich-quick scheme, an approach which backfired on all of them. I did months of research back in 2013 - it paid off - and I guess I assumed everyone else would do the same. I was proved wrong. Thankfully to their detriment and not mine.
this market wears the scalps of gutless noobs once every 4 years |
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5000ea stimulus distributed through new FEDCOIN
CUT YOUR LOOSE!!1 |
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Think what you want about COVID19.
The current crisis is actively being used to :
eliminate HK, Iran, France, etc protests
decimate short term economic activity, creating debt demand for individuals and overextended businesses that wish to continue operations
global QE-infinity, an attempt to spark real price inflation
create new laws without scrutiny
trial balloon physical&psychological submission ("social distancing")
pay selected winners (airlines, pharma, tp manufacturers, banks of course, etc)
distract from, justify, and create popular clamor for market manipulation (see above)
dislocate discussion of the above via direction to controlled, virtual platforms
1M USD is pessimistic in the medium to long term : currently observing 5778
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wut if
we hit a new low
AND
mcafee ends up right ?
5000ea stimulus distributed through new FEDCOIN
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are yellow vests still protesting?
do honkeys still riot?
sheep, easily TPed
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explain
In a long shameful convoluted story, I find myself with a new tricked out MacBook Pro 16", and a Time Machine brain transplant from the last machine. Not yet fully cloned. New MBP runs only Catalina. Apple has seen fit to -- get this -- prevent users from writing to the root directory of the filesystem. Now I need to figure out how I want to map a nearly four-decade-old directory structure to the absurd dictates of my new environ. jojo69's hell may be different - dunno. Good news, everyone. While it is not really well documented, there is a workaround. Apple has created a new type of symlink-like filesystem construct. Using this synthetic link, one can create a 'ghost link' in the root of the filesystem. This link can redirect to another place in your filesystem, like any normal symlink. It does not, however, exist on disk. It is instantiated at boot. One configures these links through an fstab-like mechanism: a new file /etc/synthetic.conf. After creating a link using this mechanism and rebooting, my filesystem looks like it used to. I am now happily restoring over 400,000 files -- over 220GB -- from Time Machine to this new phantom filesystem location. So all my old scripts and such should work just fine. More info at man synthetic.conf. Why Apple's second-level support was utterly unaware of this workaround is a mystery. But there you go. how do you feel about macos being slowly and now rapidly disfigured into a cellular phone-home applianceOS ? |
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Let us assume a miner decides to roll back segregated witness on what is presently the most valuable chain.
There is a non-zero chance of this happening- one which Core-ists seem never to discuss as a looming concern or even a possibility. In fact, it is generally waived away as BCash FUDsterism.
Given this outcome ,
*All segwit coins become miner property or are hence effectively burned, significantly reducing existing supply
*Reversing the attack would negate immutability
The culpable miners would, of course, have advance knowledge of such an attack and could prepare accordingly- both in trading the markets and hoarding segwit-free coin.
I would like to know how during this hypothetical scenario, from your perspective, miners might decide to support BitcoinSV's doubly forked ledger as the true chain rather than a de-segwitted BTC, when avoiding segwit on the majority chain has been an option all along? It would require something like a total market confidence loss in both halves of the newly split chain for such a switch to make sensible mining economics.
Regarding your current analysis of an extended bear market on the horizon : I believe this would require the above scenario playing out, as we've already seen an 85% correction and time scales relative to previous cycles have been stretched considerably. Indeed, the despair phase may have been internalized by $4 ripple-buying hordes who sold everything at a near total loss last winter and most certainly do not visit this forum.
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