Calling top at $16500 (New speculation: Guess the price 19 Feb 2021!)

[sgbett]

I never assume people set out negatively but all of us have the capacity to be wrong while believing we are correct.

Wise words STT!

[exstasie]

OG crypto guys are much more likely to benefit more from experimentally based information, because you are more likely to reject contrary information, as you have a high self-ascribed epestimic authority.

I don't think that's a fair characterization. I think a lot of OG crypto guys are inherently skeptical people, myself included. It's why we arrived here in the first place. We don't trust governments, banks, or a currency that's being devalued unpredictably behind closed doors.

People are just applying the same skepticism to CSW they apply to everything else. "Don't trust, verify" and all that. By that token, it's frustrating to see things like CSW presenting himself as Satoshi, not because I feel a need to disprove it but because I know some percentage of people will take these things as a given just because he and others say so.

What it does help me to understand is that I'm unlikely to change your opinion directly, just by arguing about why he is, or why BSV is the real Bitcoin yada yada (though I might tell you thats what I think from time to time). I understand all too well the difficulty in having foundational understanding shaken and turned on its head. For people like yourselves, it seems likely that the only thing that could be of benefit to you is direct experience.

That's true but I think you misunderstand what sort of direct experience would entail being persuaded to your position. I'm a student and lover of markets. I may have opinions about protocol design but the crux of my skepticism about BSV (or BCH or "the immutable Satoshi 0.5.3 protocol") is I simply see no signs that the market supports them. And when it comes to my money, I prefer to be on the right side of the market.

I'd be fine with another cryptocurrency overtaking BTC. But just like I don't like knife catching or calling the bottom before it's confirmed, I don't see any reason to make predict a flippening now. The market will let us know if that's even a remote possibility. Until then, I remain skeptical.

[Torque]

What sgbett either fails to understand, or is just completely lost on him, is that it does not matter if BSV or some other fork portends to be "closer to Satoshi's vision", or has a savior named CSW, or whatever blah blah blah.

Cryptocurrency, like any other asset, is valued based on mass shared belief. Meaning it is a belief-driven personality contest among the masses, with the spoils going to the victor. The users vote with their fiat, the merchants vote with their support of selling goods for it, the brokers vote with their support, the investors vote with their investment fiat, the miners vote with how much machine mining power they are willing to devote to it. Bitcoin^TM is the clear winner of this widespread support in the ecosystem.

In the court of public opinion, BSV and all the other Bitcoin forks have already been evaluated, judged, and summarily discarded. BSV is regarded as dubious at best, and a complete scam at worst. CSW has only made that image worse, because he is a complete fraud and a Narcissistic snake oil salesman. And it gets worse by the day, every single time he opens his mouth. Same with Bitcoin Cash and Roger Ver. Two sides of the same "coin", so to speak.

It's not like the masses are going to suddenly have some kind of magical "aha!" eureka moment and go, "Oh yeah, it was BSV all along that is the one true Bitcoin! My my, how we were fooled for so long!" Ain't going to happen, that moment took the mass public all of about 3 seconds to evaluate and come to the conclusion that BCash and BSV are both bullshit scams.

There is no reversing that conclusion. That ship has sailed.

[exstasie]

It's not like the masses are going to suddenly have some kind of magical "aha!" eureka moment and go, "Oh yeah, it was BSV all along that is the one true Bitcoin! My my, how we were fooled for so long!" Ain't going to happen, that moment took the mass public all of about 3 seconds to evaluate and come to the conclusion that BCash and BSV are both bullshit scams. There is no reversing that conclusion.

Yeah it just doesn't line up with history and how markets work. I think people tend to underestimate how entrenched market dynamics become over time. With every passing day, these flippening dreams become less likely.

The most obvious explanation for both coins is their chief proponents are using these ideological battles to pump and distribute their coins. The market has roundly rejected Bitcoin forks over the last 2 years so large bagholders like Bitmain and the Wright/Ayre contingent need to create a market for them.

[thecodebear]

What sgbett either fails to understand, or is just completely lost on him, is that it does not matter if BSV or some other fork portends to be "closer to Satoshi's vision", or has a savior named CSW, or whatever blah blah blah.

Cryptocurrency, like any other asset, is valued based on mass shared belief. Meaning it is a belief-driven personality contest among the masses, with the spoils going to the victor. The users vote with their fiat, the merchants vote with their support of selling goods for it, the brokers vote with their support, the investors vote with their investment fiat, the miners vote with how much machine mining power they are willing to devote to it. Bitcoin^TM is the clear winner of this widespread support in the ecosystem.

In the court of public opinion, BSV and all the other Bitcoin forks have already been evaluated, judged, and summarily discarded. BSV is regarded as dubious at best, and a complete scam at worst. CSW has only made that image worse, because he is a complete fraud and a Narcissistic snake oil salesman. And it gets worse by the day, every single time he opens his mouth. Same with Bitcoin Cash and Roger Ver. Two sides of the same "coin", so to speak.

It's not like the masses are going to suddenly have some kind of magical "aha!" eureka moment and go, "Oh yeah, it was BSV all along that is the one true Bitcoin! My my, how we were fooled for so long!" Ain't going to happen, that moment took the mass public all of about 3 seconds to evaluate and come to the conclusion that BCash and BSV are both bullshit scams.

There is no reversing that conclusion. That ship has sailed.

Very well said.

[Lauda]

What sgbett either fails to understand, or is just completely lost on him, is that it does not matter if BSV or some other fork portends to be "closer to Satoshi's vision", or has a savior named CSW, or whatever blah blah blah.

Cryptocurrency, like any other asset, is valued based on mass shared belief. Meaning it is a belief-driven personality contest among the masses, with the spoils going to the victor. The users vote with their fiat, the merchants vote with their support of selling goods for it, the brokers vote with their support, the investors vote with their investment fiat, the miners vote with how much machine mining power they are willing to devote to it. Bitcoin^TM is the clear winner of this widespread support in the ecosystem.

In the court of public opinion, BSV and all the other Bitcoin forks have already been evaluated, judged, and summarily discarded. BSV is regarded as dubious at best, and a complete scam at worst. CSW has only made that image worse, because he is a complete fraud and a Narcissistic snake oil salesman. And it gets worse by the day, every single time he opens his mouth. Same with Bitcoin Cash and Roger Ver. Two sides of the same "coin", so to speak.

It's not like the masses are going to suddenly have some kind of magical "aha!" eureka moment and go, "Oh yeah, it was BSV all along that is the one true Bitcoin! My my, how we were fooled for so long!" Ain't going to happen, that moment took the mass public all of about 3 seconds to evaluate and come to the conclusion that BCash and BSV are both bullshit scams.

There is no reversing that conclusion. That ship has sailed.

This forum has attracted many idiots who don't understand this. The market cap evaluation of BSV or Bcash or whatever is irrelevant, they are fraudulent copy-cat coins. Price, hashrate, nor anything can nor will change this.
Note to public: Do not listen to sgbett or you will get burned. BSV has absolutely zero merit from a technical basis. This is cryptography, i.e. math, not a religion. Stop with the "belief" bullshit.

[sgbett]

Cryptocurrency, like any other asset, is valued based on mass shared belief

Stop with the "belief" bullshit.

Might wanna get your story straight guys.

[Lauda]

Cryptocurrency, like any other asset, is valued based on mass shared belief

Stop with the "belief" bullshit.

Might wanna get your story straight guys.

You might want to stop conning newbies idiot. Flag support for warning of danger (based on the reference link from Maxwell):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;flag=103

[sgbett]

Cryptocurrency, like any other asset, is valued based on mass shared belief

Stop with the "belief" bullshit.

Might wanna get your story straight guys.

You might want to stop conning newbies idiot. Flag support for warning of danger (based on the reference link from Maxwell):
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;flag=103

Big guns are out! I must have a compelling case

Lets make it crystal clear what is going on here:

Any newbies (or in fact anyone) reading this, please don't trade based on anything I post.

To that end, I've added support for your flag warning others.

You'll note *my posts are not investment advice* in my signature . (You know that place where most people link to some pump and dump coin or ICO scam!)

Such scammer. Wow.

[Lauda]

Big guns are out! I must have a compelling case

Lets make it crystal clear what is going on here:

Any newbies (or in fact anyone) reading this, please don't trade based on anything I post.

To that end, I've added support for your flag warning others.

You'll note *my posts are not investment advice* in my signature . (You know that place where most people link to some pump and dump coin or ICO scam!)

Such scammer. Wow.

1) Unless that is added to every post and on every page that is useless.
2) Many people don't read the signature or have the element disabled.
3) It still influences them even if they read that warning, especially the highly susceptible ones. Such non-advice advice is very dangerous.

[sgbett]

Big guns are out! I must have a compelling case

Lets make it crystal clear what is going on here:

Any newbies (or in fact anyone) reading this, please don't trade based on anything I post.

To that end, I've added support for your flag warning others.

You'll note *my posts are not investment advice* in my signature . (You know that place where most people link to some pump and dump coin or ICO scam!)

Such scammer. Wow.

1) Unless that is added to every post and on every page that is useless.
2) Many people don't read the signature or have the element disabled.
3) It still influences them even if they read that warning, especially the highly susceptible ones. Such non-advice advice is very dangerous.

I'm sure you and gmax gaming the trust system will give everyone what they need to make an informed decision. Alas, I could not give myself negative feedback to re-iterate what I posted above. I am not afraid of the truth.

Any newbies (or in fact anyone) reading this, please don't trade based on anything I post.

Good job on diverting the thread btw. Sterling work. Do FortuneJack pay you per post? Looks wholesome that site, gambling *and* altcoins! You are so bitcoin it hurts. I assume you are making sure not to advertise to people that live in territories where gambling is illegal?

Look at me being concerned for other people's well being. so scam. wow.
 
Not investment advice. DYOR.

[Lauda]

Good job on diverting the thread btw. Sterling work.

It's not diverted; it's related to your motivations on why you make predictions, and why you give out malicious and dishonest opinions. Very much on topic.   I will be propagating the flag elsewhere, especially since you agree with it which makes it even more legitimate. I'll also be participating in this thread in order to reduce harm to any potential readers. Cheers.

Do FortuneJack pay you per post? Looks wholesome that site, gambling *and* altcoins! You are so bitcoin it hurts. I assume you are making sure not to advertise to people that live in territories where gambling is illegal?

Look at me being concerned for other people's well being. so scam. wow.

Now this is called proper diversion, against the forum rules and poisoning the well while at it. Good job.

[sgbett]

Hello I'm sgbett. My motivation for posting is being right on the internet, you may have met my sort before.

Flick back through the thread, and look for all the people telling me I was crazy for saying it would go below 4k.

Look for all the people that said my 16.5 top call was crazy.

Imagine how nourishing those posts are to my type where is everyone now, ah yes still here ridiculing me for suggesting that winter is yet to come. We'll see. Having no horse in this race makes it much easier to remain objective.

I look at all the information I have and I predict what I think is most likely. I've been watching BTC price for years and so I feel like I have a good handle on how it behaves over longer time periods - this thread is a good example, here's another example from a few years ago. Remember what I 'm saying will happen now was what I said many months ago; short term calls a crap shoot. I don't trade, and I wouldn't advise anyone else to unless they enjoy gambling and know that is what they are doing. I am not anti gambling - your sig is just fine (it's your reaction I'm interested in)

I still think Bitcoin goes to $560k, just that there has been a series of setbacks.

As to my comments on BSV, well you asked...

I honestly believe BSV is project that is most accurately delivering Bitcoin as I envisaged it would be all those years ago. I'm telling people what I think because I feel obligated to pass on the good news, to those that care to hear it. I certainly don't think people should go out and dump BTC and buy up BSV based on my opinion though. I cant stress enough that people should be going out and finding things out for themselves.

People could read about how BSV is being massively scaled on chain to allow for incredible new use cases such as Neon Planaria.

People could go read the old source code and look at the opcodes that were available in the early versions that hinted at what was to come such as OP_PUSHDATA4 (imagine having an opcode that pushes 4gb data to the stack, I wonder what that is for?)

People could go back through my post history to verify the claims being made about me by everyone in this thread that berates me.  

Note well,  that I am not telling anyone to do anything other than inform themselves. I am not telling anyone to believe what I say without question. People must decide what is true and what is not true for themselves. Do not trust me. Verify me. I believe in the truth, I am not afraid of the truth. Even if that means I am wrong about things.

Whatever slurs and accusations are thrown at me simply do not have merit. I am simply a reasonable person with an opinion that is different to you. Your actions speak much louder than your words.

The well is already deadly, but if you're looking to invoke forum rules to shut me up, I guess you could go down that route, but think on...

"You can't win, Lauda. If you strike me down, I shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine."

[Lauda]

I still think Bitcoin goes to $560k, just that there has been a series of setbacks.

You are hereby confirmed to be a malicious individual trying to harm the general public with lies. Archived for reference. More people will be supporting the flag and possibly tagging you for the continuous spread of lies. I'm also glad that I've managed to flag BSV as a scam too.  

Whatever slurs and accusations are thrown at me simply do not have merit. I am simply a reasonable person with an opinion that is different to you. Your actions speak much louder than your words.

Spreading factually incorrect information =/= different opinion. It's called being dishonest or lying, which you are. 

[Torque]

Hello I'm sgbett. My motivation for posting is being right on the internet, you may have met my sort before.

Flick back through the thread, and look for all the people telling me I was crazy for saying it would go below 4k.

Look for all the people that said my 16.5 top call was crazy.

sgbett, if you really thought that BSV is the "one true and real Bitcoin", then you shouldn't care about BTC's tops and bottoms. Like at all. In fact not only should you not care, you shouldn't own any BTC at all.

The fact that you still own BTC and care about its price action betrays your true intent. You have no real skin in the game with BSV, because you aren't convinced it is the real deal and will win the hearts and minds. Otherwise you'd be 100% BSV and 0% BTC.

You're showing yourself to be as much of a fraud as CSW with every post.

[sgbett]

Judge Lauda "hereby confirming"... I hope the sources are good and foreign!

You're done. You've played your "sgbett is a conman" card - to which I have responded. I trust people will read and think for themselves.

Hey torque looks like you are as good at reading people as you are the market. At the time I was concerned about Bitcoin's highs and Lows it was 2017 we were fresh off the back of the first fork, I was still in BTC of course I cared. Lets recap:

7th Dec 2017 - Market opens around $14k at mid-day I start this thread calling top at $16,5k price is hovering just under $15k, to much derision and disbelief....

We have broad userbase support at ~$8k, and below that mining ROI support around $5-6k and climbing.

And with all the W$ money coming in, I highly doubt sub $10k coins wouldn't get snapped up in a heartbeat.

20th Dec 2017 - At 3PM you post this - the price is just over 17k, by end of day we were below.

Instead of your top, I'm calling a BOTTOM @ $16,500.

14th Dec 2017 - At 4PM this would have been an amazing call to short BTC at just under $16,5 except you didn't realise it.

This thread must be where the bears hang out.  

Bears on this thread should put their money where their mouth is and short the market.  I double dare ya.

The day after you seem absolutely baffled that I can separate what I might want to happen, from what I think will happen. Has it crossed your mind yet that I'm just calling what I see? I like to predict things. I like to be right. Whereas you seem to be saying things you hope might be true. What on earth gives you the idea that core will increase the block size - have you really not been paying attention?

Read a bit further up the thread, I'm what some might call a "bcash shill" and even I am saying we could see anything up to $80k in the short term.

I don't get it sgbett. How did you become a BCash shill and still be rooting for Bitcoin?

You do realize that when Bitcoin gets a block size increase (and it WILL eventually) then BCash will become completely obsolete?

I suggest you go read what I said in this post I dont just predict price movements. I tell you plain as day what I see happening. (again, not what I *want* to happen. What I *wanted* to happen was for core to increase the block size do segwit as a HF and let hashrate decide. Fortunately that did not happen, because it led to where we are to day and that is a *really* good place from my perspective).

Jan 24th - At this point you can't bear what is unfolding so you just resort to this crap...

Well, you got 'em. Was $3122 low enough? Would opening a short at $16,5k and closing it at $4,1k have been a satisfactory trade?

sgbett, if you really thought that BSV is the "one true and real Bitcoin", then you shouldn't care about BTC's tops and bottoms. Like at all. In fact not only should you not care, you shouldn't own any BTC at all.

I really do think BSV is Bitcoin, I know you all find this impossible to fathom. Consider this, I too have thought BTC was Bitcoin, I know what made me think that. I have seen both sides and have come to a conclusion based on the information I have. The way you characterise what I think as inconceivable demonstrates you haven't given it any consideration. You instantly reject anything that contradicts your long held belief, because to change your mind now is also inconceivable to you. It is literally painful. Mental anguish. I have felt it. I remember it even now. It hurt.

Trying to rationalise my action in that context inevitably leads you to err in judgement. My interest in BTC price is quite simple to explain. I'm still interested in seeing whether a forecast I made nearly 2 years ago plays out, because then I get to feel smart. So far so good eh! The battle for 8k is proving interesting isn't it. I've an 8 year posting history that you can psychoanalyse and decide whether 'desire to look smart' fits my personality type. Check Maslow's hierarchy of needs (theory of human motivation) right there under "Self Actualisation" is "Respect of Peers" I bob around in that area most of the time, as the layers below are mostly satisfied. I enjoy posts like this in which you fail to recognise that I called a massive selloff with uncanny accuracy. I'm just lucky though eh?

The fact that you still own BTC and care about its price action betrays your true intent. You have no real skin in the game with BSV, because you aren't convinced it is the real deal and will win the hearts and minds. Otherwise you'd be 100% BSV and 0% BTC.

You're showing yourself to be as much of a fraud as CSW with every post.

Where is the fraud. What have I asked of you, or anyone? What have I explicitly encouraged people to do?

Think, McFly. Think!

[Torque]

Trying to rationalise my action in that context inevitably leads you to err in judgement. My interest in BTC price is quite simple to explain. I'm still interested in seeing whether a forecast I made nearly 2 years ago plays out, because then I get to feel smart. So far so good eh! The battle for 8k is proving interesting isn't it. I've an 8 year posting history that you can psychoanalyse and decide whether 'desire to look smart' fits my personality type. Check Maslow's hierarchy of needs (theory of human motivation) right there under "Self Actualisation" is "Respect of Peers" I bob around in that area most of the time, as the layers below are mostly satisfied. I enjoy posts like this in which you fail to recognise that I called a massive selloff with uncanny accuracy. I'm just lucky though eh?

Another typical bullshit non response. You're sounding like a troll who either hacked or bought this account years ago.

The fact that you still own BTC and care about its price action betrays your true intent. You have no real skin in the game with BSV, because you aren't convinced it is the real deal and will win the hearts and minds. Otherwise you'd be 100% BSV and 0% BTC.

You're showing yourself to be as much of a fraud as CSW with every post.

Where is the fraud. What have I asked of you, or anyone? What have I explicitly encouraged people to do?

Think, McFly. Think!

....AAANND followed by another dodge and redirect.

You should give up attempts at gaslighting sgbett, the technique doesn't work for you.

[asUHWEceyc]

Let us assume a miner decides to roll back segregated witness on what is presently the most valuable chain.  
There is a non-zero chance of this happening- one which Core-ists seem never to discuss as a looming concern or even a possibility. In fact, it is generally waived away as BCash FUDsterism.

Given this outcome ,

*All segwit coins become miner property or are hence effectively burned, significantly reducing existing supply
*Reversing the attack would negate immutability


The culpable miners would, of course, have advance knowledge of such an attack and could prepare accordingly- both in trading the markets and hoarding segwit-free coin.

I would like to know how during this hypothetical scenario, from your perspective, miners might decide to support BitcoinSV's doubly forked ledger as the true chain rather than a de-segwitted BTC, when avoiding segwit on the majority chain has been an option all along? It would require something like a total market confidence loss in both halves of the newly split chain for such a switch to make sensible mining economics.

Regarding your current analysis of an extended bear market on the horizon : I believe this would require the above scenario playing out, as we've already seen an 85% correction and time scales relative to previous cycles have been stretched considerably. Indeed, the despair phase may have been internalized by $4 ripple-buying hordes who sold everything at a near total loss last winter and most certainly do not visit this forum.

[Lauda]

Let us assume a miner decides to roll back segregated witness on what is presently the most valuable chain.  
There is a non-zero chance of this happening- one which Core-ists seem never to discuss as a looming concern or even a possibility. In fact, it is generally waived away as BCash FUDsterism.

Fake nonsense and FUD. This would be a HF and my node, just like anyone elses would reject it and the miners would lose their money. Tagged you for posting lies.

[exstasie]

Let us assume a miner decides to roll back segregated witness on what is presently the most valuable chain.  
There is a non-zero chance of this happening- one which Core-ists seem never to discuss as a looming concern or even a possibility. In fact, it is generally waived away as BCash FUDsterism.

It's been pointed out time and time again that 80% of reachable nodes are enforcing Segwit. By any measurable statistics we have, such a fork would be ignored by most of the network. Miners would be on their own hard fork, although really old nodes from 3+ years ago who can barely keep up with the network anyway would be compatible. It's extremely unlikely most of the network will downgrade their software to accept such a hard fork. Why would they do that? Because they want dishonest miners to steal everyone's money?

*Reversing the attack would negate immutability

Quite the opposite. For a strong majority of the network, hard forking our software to remove Segwit would negate immutability.