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thanks for your work on this. I just had an idea about how The Crazy Ivan could be used. does it use whichever settings you have set in the trade settings but just sells on the buy and vice versa?
Yes, "Crazy Ivan" just calls the sell-function in MtGox instead of the buy-function and vice versa. So if you tweak the "buy-settings", they will be used to trigger a sale and vice versa. And it works for MACD as well... |
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Hi all! I've been working on a new version of the bot for a while, now including MACD indicator/strategy!! It's not totally finished (mostly help/info-functions that needs to be fixed), but I have been running it in MACD mode for about a week, and I think the logic, the charts and the trading all work as it should!  As I think we will get our second baby today(!), I'm publishing it for you to play with, even if it's a bit rough. I have changed it's name and put it in a new repository: https://github.com/TobbeLino/TobliBot(when it's finished I'll publish it in the Chrome Store) A few notes regarding the MACD-strategy: - The standard EMA-values for the MACD-calculation is a bit different from Goomboo's simple EMA-strategy. It's normally 12/26 (instead of 10/21 for Goomboo's). And the MACD-indicator also has a signal line that is per default a EMA(9) of the MACD-line. Clicking the link "strategy defaults" after changing bot-strategy loads the default parameters for each strategy. - The EMA-thresholds should be a lot lower than for Goomboo's simple EMA-strategy. I have made the MACD-diff values (that are used as the indicator) relative rather than absolute by dividing with the long EMA (according to how PPO is calculated: http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:price_oscillators_pp but this bot does not multiply it by 100 as the PPO) so the thresholds should be constant regardless of the current price range. I have empirically chosen 0.05% as the default values for buy/sell thresholds in MACD-mode, but feel free to experiment! And (as also written on the new options page): If my bot makes you rich, please consider donating a fraction of your profit! ...or, of course, also if you appreciate my work for other reasons... Bitcoin: 1LUqdAXvH9gbYemZKeiMrVJ5njhm6ZvKmF Cheers! /Tobbe |
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TobbeLino, I know this is not part of Goomboo's system but there are two requests I have. Although “dangerous" a lot of ppl would like to see a “hold on sells” until the buy they paid is reached with the Fee. There are times when I have done an extensive advance advance study and might be say 85% sure that a price of so and so will be reached. Then then a “hiccup” and I get sold short only to see I was right a few days later. The 2ed is a tailing stop. Say 5% with avg, ... or something like that. Both should not be default but a little box you can tick in.
If I get the time I'll try to implement some experimental functions that takes the price you paid into account, e.g. "don't sell with loss". And maybe some kind of stop loss (need to figure out how it's supposed to work together with the other bot-strategy though, as the stop loss logic and the bot-strategy will sometimes conflict) But right now I'm working on a different feature in the bot... |
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I installed GoxTradingBotTobli v0.2.2.3 this morning (downloaded using Git Clone instead of downloading this time, to make it easier to update in the future) and I still see the same behavior still. Enable the bot, save changes, close the browser, open the browser, and it's disabled again. I'm using Chrome 27.0.1453.94. This week or weekend I'll try taking a look at the code.
Are you sure you're running the latest version? And you have the setting "Disabled on start" unchecked? I can't reproduce the problem with the latest version. |
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Yeah that looks like someone that wanted to use MACD and forgot a part. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MACDI would refrain from using that method as I have doubts that it is more efficient. Also look at how much more responsive the MACD crossover is vs regular EMA crossover. This bot was never attempting to implement a MACD indicator, but a simpler one using only two EMAs of different lengths (as I understand it, this is like using only the MACD line's zero crossovers as indicator). You can read the whole analysis and discussion about this in the tread I previously referred to (Goomboo's Journal: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501). I'm no expert in trading strategies and technical analysis myself, and I do not have a quantitative experience of all the many strategies that exists, but to me Goomboo seems to be a quite experienced trader, and I'm quite sure he didn't try to use MACD and simply "forgot" the signal line. His philosophy is instead: The simpler strategies tend to beat the more complex ones in the long run. Again, I can not judge whether this is a good or bad philosophy, but I like it The signal–line crossovers in MACD may very well respond faster, but it will also generate more false signals. But of course, it would be very nice to also have MACD indicators implemented in the bot so that the users can choose. Maybe some day |
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What technical indicator are you actually using? It looks like the implementation of MACD but stopped halfway? Could you like me to a wiki explaining what your indicator is?
Goomboo's Journal: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501 |
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Just a quick note on your bot, not sure if this is intentional or not, but whether you check or uncheck "disabled on start," when you close out of the browser and boot it up the bot is always disabled. Basically it's always disabled on start whether you check or uncheck that box.
You're right! There was some weirdness about this setting! I've just uploaded a fixed version (v0.2.2.3) |
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Would adding a setting in for the fee help at all? Such that it will only sell if it covers the fee? That way it wouldn't sell at a loss. Of course this only works if the price is rising. This might mess with the EMA portion of the bot, but I'm not completely sure if this would help at all. But I am loving the bot! Great work on it and thanks!
This has been proposed by many. But it's a risky strategy imo (based on the highly emotional assumption that the price WILL go up, and every down-trend is just very temporary). It may put you in a very bad position, and all it really does it that it "hides" your loss and make it worse. It will also cripple the EMA-strategy (the strategy is symmetric and should not prefer "buying" over "selling"). But maybe something will show up in the "experimental section" in the future The bot can fetch the fee from the user info from MtGox, and the latest trades could also be fetched, so it's possible to use the last paid price in the strategy. But be warned: Your last paid price really has nothing to to with where the price will go from here! |
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If you are looking for experimental staff. What about hi frequency trading. When EMA is stable sell at EMA+1$ and buy at EMA-1$ or maybe not EMA but something else.
EDIT: No trigger for this should probably be Bolinger and stable EMA. Since Bolinger gets wider as soon as a price start moving again and EMA 10/21 must be the primery strategy again.
The problem is that the trading fee at MtGox is so high, it's probably hard to make money from some kind of high freq trading. But maybe I'll look into it in the future. As for using Bollinger bands as an indicator, I'm not sure what data is required to calculate them. The bot currently only has access to a limited amount of data (the price of the first trade at each sample point). But maybe that's good for some kind of trending/ranging-indication... |
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- Experimental feature: "The Crazy Ivan" - reverse the EMA-logic: The bot will sell when it's supposed to buy, and buy when it's supposed to sell!
I don't get it? Why? Can you elaborate? Thanks Well, it's highly experimental and added mostly for fun (to put something in the new experimental section - I plan to add some more rules and settings there later that diverts from the original EMA-bot strategy). From the description on the options-page: "When the EMA-strategy is reversed, the bot will buy when it's supposed to sell, and sell when it should buy! There are absolutely NO theories supporting this strategy, however, when the market is ranging and you feel that the bot is always 180 degrees out of phase with the swings, it might work. Maybe..." |
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Check out new version v0.2.2.0! News/fixes: - Indicator arrows in graph - Thinner price line - Zoomable chart - Added link to external charts (at bitcoincharts.com) - Experimental section added - Experimental feature: Only trade after trend switch (if starting the bot between trend switches, wait until next swicth) - Experimental feature: "The Crazy Ivan" - reverse the EMA-logic: The bot will sell when it's supposed to buy, and buy when it's supposed to sell! - Lowered retry-rate when failed to fetch user info (retry after 1 minute instead of 10 seconds) to avoid hammering MtGox - More robust handling of network problems (updates could stop after a network loss) - bot should now update and resume within a minute - Better handling when computer resumes from sleep (updates could stop after sleep) - bot should now update and resume within a minute Download at: https://github.com/TobbeLino/GoxTradingBotTobli |
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How long does it take for the plugin to access the account via the API key & Secret?
I added the two keys in the settings, but it still says:
Problem accessing MtGox account.
Go check the Options page.
Well, it *should* work as soon as a proper API key and secret has been entered. But there are some connectivity problems at MtGox from time to time, and the bot currently doesn't handle them very good. I'll try to see if it can be fixed... |
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Thanks a bunch for the bot, im only for the last few days fooling around with it. The BTC market hasnt been doing shiz for the last few days, so I havent gotten anymore than one trade through the bot. I HAVE noticed two times my bot has disabled itself within the last few days, I was wondering if this was a known issue..? Thanks again for the bot!  edit>> This is in relation to TobbeLino's version! There are a few problems with connectivity. Some are due to MtGox access problem, but the bot itself currently also has some problems reconnecting on network disruptions, and can stop updating... I'll try to release a new version that fixes this and makes it more robust against MtGox access problems. |
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Right, but do you agree with the idea of considering not only the current value of ema-diff, but its trend, too? Interesting idea, but all EMA bots at the moment are based on the Goomboo's Journal. Goomboo, as a trader, suggested that the more simple rules such a trading system has, the more profit it will generate in the long run. Well, Goomboo didn't say anything about thresholds or 'buying after N samples above threshold', but those are working tricks! While we don't get too far from the original idea, I think that improvements are still to be done! (the 99 bucks bot guy sorta implemented this, allowing negative thresholds, but that's rough) Well, I don't think "the 99 bucks bot guy" has based his work on any scientific knowledge really He will probably implement any crazy idea as long as someone pays him to do so and it looks good in the feature list of his bot. But the only strategy he is pursuing is probably the one that makes himself earn a buck  |
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How about peaks 1 & 2? They have to be ignored! Peak 4 (which is the actual price maximum btw) is going to be ignored? (should be!)
Any help is appreciated, thank you.
Well, finding the actual, true peaks in the EMA-diff graph is just as hard as finding the true peaks in the price graph. If we could do that without errors, we would all be rich Right, but do you agree with the idea of considering not only the current value of ema-diff, but its trend, too? It's hard to say as it's a totally different strategy, but I think no (at least for this kind of bot). Isn't the point when the derivative of the EMA-diff = 0 (i.e. when it has a peak or a bottom) probably the same point as when the price itself turns up or down? In that case the bot could just as well simply look at the price itself: If it's turning down: Sell! It's turning up: Buy! But unfortunately trading is not that easy, and that's exactly what the EMA-bot tries to help us with in the first place... Goomboo's EMA-strategy is designed to not make too hasty decisions, so it will never be able to hit the exact peaks or bottoms. It's designed to wait until a trend has been identified, and that takes (per definition) time. The whole reason for the bot reacting "slowly" (and sometimes buys at the top and sells at the bottom - out-of-sync with the market) is because detecting the "true" peaks/bottoms IS the whole problem here, and it's a very hard problem! (and in some way it's an "impossible" problem, because the very moment people find a way to predict the market, the market itself will change because of this). The problem of finding the peaks/bottoms is very deceptive because it looks SOOO easy when looking at a chart afterwards But as we all know, it's a whole different story to try to predict where the price will go "from here"... So, I think the bottom line is that any attempt at trying to "speed up" the EMA-bot and make it react faster to the market is actually short circuiting the whole strategy of the bot. It's not designed to react quickly, and making hasty decisions is what humans do! |
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How about peaks 1 & 2? They have to be ignored! Peak 4 (which is the actual price maximum btw) is going to be ignored? (should be!)
Any help is appreciated, thank you.
Well, finding the actual, true peaks in the EMA-diff graph is just as hard as finding the true peaks in the price graph. If we could do that without errors, we would all be rich |
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100% agreed, but I would add that Goomboo said that in January 2012, a time when the market was a lot smaller and different.
Yes, you're right - the situation may be a bit different now. But I still think that many movements on the minute time scale is caused by single buyers/sellers, and it takes some time for a proper trend to form. With the current trading fees at MtGox, it seems hard to make a profit on a "micro-trading". |
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Thanks a lot for the extension. Especially for the modified version. May I suggest one small improvement? Storing current price in localstorage after buy order was executed and checkbox in options page to skip sell if current sell price lower than pervious buy price. ....
if ((tradingEnabled==1)&&(ApiKey!='')) {
if ((skipSellEnabled==1)&&(currentPrice>lastBuyPrice)) {
console.log("SELL! (EMA("+EmaShortPar+")/EMA("+EmaLongPar+")<-"+MinSellThreshold+"% for "+tickCountSell+" or more ticks)");
...
I get many requests about this. However, a function like that will divert from the strategy of a EMA-bot, and it's not quite as easy to implement I think. You are probably looking for a whole different kind of bot with another strategy. Personally, I'm not all for a function like this because it's just as important for an EMA-bot to sell when it detects a trend down, as it should buy when it detects a trend up, and according to the EMA-bot's strategy, the decision really has nothing to do with the price you previously paid. Your suggestion is based on the assumption that all drops are just temporary and short, but I think that's a VERY risky assumption! If the price drops, it may very well stay low for a long time. And no matter what you paid for your BTC when you bought them, you really should sell if you think the price will drop further (it's better to sell "now" and buy again on an even lower price, and be able to trade again as soon as the price starts recovering). Just imagine having used your "rule" when the price dropped from $250 a few weeks ago. Your bot would now be sitting here waiting for the price to reach those levels again, but it can take a very long time. In my opinion, it would be better if the bot had sold (with a small loss), and could start working again as soon as an up-trend was detected (maybe somewhere around $70-$80). And also, I do agree with Goomboo in is thread describing the strategy of this EMA-bot ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501): A simple, straight-forward strategy gives the best results in the long run. Sure, you can add all kinds of "intelligence" and "smartness" to a bot, but if the "smartness" is based on your own emotional assumptions (e.g. that the price will always go up soon), you WILL get hit very hard if/when your assumptions turn out to be wrong. In my opinion, the whole point of a bot is that it should take emotions like this away, thus lowering the risk (because we humans are very poor at making logic decisions when we "believe" something, and we tend to take way too high risks without even realizing it). So I do like the simplicity and logic behind this original bot. Sure, it WILL do bad trades sometimes, and sure, it could always have done better trades when looking back at the charts, but the relevant question is: would you or another bot have done better? And will you do better in the long run? The idea behind this bot is that it simply should make more good trades than bad ones, and that it should make a steady profit in the long run, without taking high risks like we humans tend to do. It's tempting to try to "speed up" the bot to make more money quickly, but be warned: very short sample intervals tend to catch mostly noise, and there are really no solid trends to act on. I am, however, considering adding an "experimental" section to the bot, where additional, home-made rules/strategies like this could be added (and used at your own risk, as it WILL seriously cripple the EMA-bot!!). But the question is: How should these other strategies/rules be used in combination with the EMA-bot strategy? I would also like to add some kind of stop-loss feature to that section, but I haven't quite figured out how it should work when the different strategies collide (as they often will!)... |
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TobbeLino, thnks again for sharing. Very cool.
I'm playing around with the source (will create a pull request if it becomes useful). Just wondering about MaxTradingIntervalMinutes and MaxSamplesToKeep.
What does MaxTradingIntervalMinutes represent?
Is it fine to change MaxSamplesToKeep to anything? Any reason why it's 144? (12x12)?
MaxTradingIntervalMinutes is simply the largest sample interval that can be selected in the settings (180 min). This constant is used then cleaning the cache (to determine if a cached sample can be useful, or if it's old enough to remove) I advice you against changing MaxSamplesToKeep. The value 144 is from the original bot, and I'm not quite sure why that exact number was picked. But I have read that the original bot used a lower value from the start, but it was criticised that the EMA-calculations needed more values to be accurate, so it was increased to 144... (each new calculated EMA-value takes the previous samples into account, so I think it needs a history of values longer than the actual "EMA-length" to be accurate) |
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Be careful, eduk's version is not implementing fixes from tobli's v0217 and v0218 (v2 api etc.). Furthermore, I strongly advise you not to use sampling intervals shorter than 15 minutes: I started with 10m, and lost a lot even with high thresholds. I'm better off with 30m now!
Yes, be careful with very short intervals... I advice everyone that uses this bot to check out Goomboo thread that describes the strategy that this bot uses: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=60501. I quote from his second post in that thread: "I caution against the lower timeframes because for the most part, they are just noise. The spread is so large and the market is so thinly traded that if you are trying to make money on a chart of less than an hour, it can be very difficult." |
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