Betex could you answer my question? I asked here and on Facebook but still no answer:
"I don't get something. I have never used Metamask, but now I have it and I have already made some bets. But why on metamask account I can see 5 ETH and every bet I place reduce this number approximately by 0.004 per bet? I earned some SBT, but I'm afraid that I will have to pay for gas used (from this 5 ETH I have seen, now 4.789 left)"

I don't get something. I have never used Metamask, but now I have it and I have already made some bets. But why on metamask account I can see 5 ETH and every bet I place reduce this number approximately by 0.004 per bet?

Hi. I'm studying Maths and I would like to support it by buying some coin related with it. I know PrimeCoin and Riecoin, but they are not developed now. I've already bought some Einsteinium (funding science projects). Do you know any others? By related I mean whatever (looking for some numbers, sequences, funding some research).

I'm already out of there (just receiving a bit from referrals), so I can write you what I noticed. There is almost no one playing there except organizer's bots (it is not accusation, just my opinion  ). They bet both up and down of course, but in the way that the ratio up amount/down amount is the same as the ratio of users bets up/down. It should be clear that this way it doesn't have any effect on users (0.001 up, 0.002 is exactly the same for users as 0.012 up, 0.024 down), just making impression that there are more people. But what happen if there is only one side bet from users? Then the ratio is huge and after 5 wins and 1 lose user loses.

Conclusion: bet when there is someone playing, then you can win. You can even sometimes lure players bet side you want (by manipulating the ratio at the beginning [bots will induce ratio similar to yours even during the betting time] and change it at the end). Manipulating price at Poloniex when it is possible is also helpful (but not neccessary).

My usual strategy was: wait for someone, wait for bet when you think the chance up/down is 50/50, bet both sides 0.001. If someone bet one side 0.001, then the ratio is 2:1. The chance is 50:50 so if you lose one time and win one time in this case you win 0,000375.
I sometimes played 2:1 when I thought the chance up is 66% and my expected value was also positive (but it is harder).

Summarizing, I maked some profit, but it costed me too much time to wait for some good opponent (some players are online, but play only when the propability of up/down is higher then 80% - it was hard for my to deal with them). I prefer to trade altcoins than spending time there now.

Still some users are not aware of how it works (1 month ago it was easier to realize it, now there are some "distractions", but general rule is the same).

If you think you can try it (I don't want to encourage or discourage you) and what I write is useful then you may use my link https://btcbet.cc/r/iWUcbG/ to register.

Anyway have fun, don't take it too serious (as I did). Good luck!

You are right . I want to catch some people on my refferral program, but all I told you is true. True is also that I haven't told you everything (I haven't spent many hours on analyzing it just to show you my results). I'm still here, because it is only site where you can use some statistics to win with other players (small community without experts etc). So if someone is still interested, tips from me are: 1. Don't invest much money. 2. In the most of cases bet both sides (in some ratio) and observe. If you notice something you will improve your strategy (even sometimes you can play one side, but it is hard even for me to do it correctly).

True is that before you realize what's going on I (if I will be online, I wrote a bot, but I don't use it) will win with you and earn your money. Then you can win money from the others (or from me, if you will be smarter). If someone become my refferral and play I can write something more.

Now I think I'm fair towards users of this forum

It is not possible to calculate how the price would move, but it is possible to estimate a probability (for example using ARMA-GARCH models) and check whether the bets up and down are fair. It's not an university, so I'm not going to teach you. Just trust me that sometimes it is good to bet both sides and make profit .

You are my refferral so I know how you play from very beginning. Why don't you try betting both sides? If you think the price will go up you can bet 0.002 up and 0.001 down. In this case even if organizers wants you to lose, they can not do much. Play a little bit more tricky and you can win. I play when I have some time and I haven't lost money in the last 2 weeks (I won 0.02, some of it is probably your money; at the beginning I also lost).

If you know a little bit probability theorem you can compute expected values as a functions of your bets and probability induced by other bets (you have to estimate real "up" probability somehow). The result proves that playing both sides is not as stupid as it seems.

After some time you will also understand how bots work .

If someone want to play user vs user for Bitcoin price prediction I recommend https://btcbet.cc/r/iWUcbG/ which works like old btc-e betting. Unfortunately it is a service, so you have to pay 5% prize commission and you can not bet on any other thing.

I found exactly what I was looking for https://btcbet.cc/r/iWUcbG/

I also (first time) wrote my strategy which worked on btc-e (there were the same rules as on btcbet) to encourage some players. Have a look before registration and if you like it, use my refferral link https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2242199.0

I found exactly what I was looking for https://btcbet.cc/r/iWUcbG/

I also (first time) wrote my strategy which worked on btc-e (there were the same rules as on btcbet) to encourage some players. Have a look before registration and if you like it, use me refferral link https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2242199.0

I will say the last thing about the accusations towards them. I have spent a lot of time on analyzing data and possible strategies. Finally I discovered something which changed my mind completely. I won't tell you what is that (now it is a bit harder to see it, but still possible). Nevertheless, I decided to continue playing, but when I play with a bot my balance is 0 (no gain, no lose). If they reduce a commission or the minimum bet amount I will stay with them a bit longer. If nothing change I will try my luck few days more and probably resign. In my opinion it is possible to have (more less) constant income on this site, but it requires to be pretty smart.

Hmm maybe I'll just say that it is possible to find some good strategy. It would be great to have some possibility to reduce the commission - I made 100-200 bets and it is easy to compute that I spend more than 20$ on it in few days (more than my income this time ;p).

That is the reason of my question. btcbet it is not too late for you! If you do it just stop it now. Your site works really good and you will make more money playing fair!

btcbetcc do you also participate in betting sometimes?

You have to decide whether price after 15 minutes will be higher or lower than 5 minutes ago. It is pretty challenging, because your price depends on the others bets.

I recommend this site. I started few days ago and everything is ok. I hope you won't finish hacked or something. Please take care of it. I can suggest you some kind of loyalty program - for example: if I invite someone then I will receive 1% of his commision fee when he wins (still 4% for you) or something like that. It would be great to have more people playing.

You are doing a great job. Best wishes

Hi. I'm looking for the same thing. I started topics here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2074348.0 and here http://forum.binaryoptions.net/discussion/4881/win-as-much-as-opposite-side-lose/p1?new=1

I'm also looking for the site which works like btc-e (you receive loosers money) and it doesn't have to be Bitcoin. Only thing I found is a young site https://btcbet.cc/

If you find some other site, please write me here or by private message.

I know the biggest Bitcoin markets, but I'm not interested in usual trading at all. For me it is much easier to find a strategy (I'm a mathematician and I'm using some models to do that) for this kind of binary options I'm talkich about.

I think now I know how is it called - it is a parimutuel betting.

OneHash - they are not enough repetitive bets on the same contracts (for Bitcoin 1 per hour) and I couldn't find information how to compute time bonus. Even if I find some kind a strategy, it seems to bo complicated to write bots.

gogo-options - As far as I can see it is still playing against the market.

It is unbeliavable for me why such clear mutual betting like it was on btc-e doesn't exist elsewhere. No risk for the market and many people (like me) who prefers to play against others.

Fairlay is a word which will help me but still I couldn't find betting on some price (of Bitcoin or something) every few minutes.

Trading with leverage is completely other thing. Maybe I will explain a bit my strategy.

On btc-e if 1000 dollars were bet down and 10 dollars bet up, then if I bet down 1 dollar I could win (10/1001)*0,95=0,094 and if I bet up 1000/11*0,95=86,36 (every time you win on btc-e you have to pay 5% fee). In any case the broker win some money, so I'm not broker's opponent. My opponents are other people, so it is much easier to win (long term winning is possible here). It is easy to see that if I somehow calculate that the probability of win if I bet up is greater than 1/86,36=1,16% then I should do it. Similarly you can calculate it for betting down. To calculate this probability I'm using ARMA-GARCH models (that's why it is different than in playing with leverege).

So I'm still looking for some betting site against others, not against broker.