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It seems to me that the high volatility of the Crypto-currency, that is, the sharp jumps in its rate up and down, is not a drawback, but, on the contrary, the dignity of the crypto currency. With its high volatility, there is no stagnation or boredom. It is especially good at this to trade on stock exchanges. In addition, it is necessary to take into account that the general tendency of the Crypto-currency is the constant growth of their price, which significantly increases interest to it.
Well, I see your point that high volatility means no stagnation or boredom, but from a new user perspective, would a high price and high volatility decrease interest as my initial investment is aligned with high risk? |
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What's new with volatility of Bitcoin? It's always been same. We have seen 50% drop many a time. 25% is still less. There is cut off period in July because of potential fork, buying activity decreased sharply and in August the same buying activity increased sharply as all the investors were waiting for August. Thus, volatility was inevitable. It was quite natural.
So I would rather say nice try to advertise your site.
Well, I totally agree that volatility is nothing new in Bitcoin, what I do not get is the level when it will raise concerns. Or how to find the information like you gave in your post, explaining the situation and putting high volatility numbers into context. The Bitcoin Seismograph is intended to provide the context for the numbers (by displaying ongoing top reddit and bitcointalk discussions), but I need some feedback at which constellations of Bitcoin indicators you need to have a deeper look into the context. Therefore, I am quite thankful for the discussion today despite the little advertising effect for http://www.bitcoinseismograph.com  All the best, Marcel |
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no. but for now I will keep all my bitcoins. and expect no transaction using bitcoin abruptly. for now we better hold our bitcoin and wait for the right time with a more stable price and more conducive situation.
Even I am thinking the same. Bitcoin's price has been increasing high enough for past few months and it would be better to hold the coins and sell it at a better price later. Its huge increase in price also gives me goosebumps as it is an indication of a fall in price soon. The more increase in price, the more chances for it to fall a little. But i strongly feel that it won't go fall any sooner. Its price is to cross $5000 which will make a huge impact on the society. There are chances that more people buy it once they get to know about it. I agree, it definitely causes media attention, but the higher the price gets, the fewer people (or newbies) will think, now might be a good time to invest... Or am I wrong? |
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no. but for now I will keep all my bitcoins. and expect no transaction using bitcoin abruptly. for now we better hold our bitcoin and wait for the right time with a more stable price and more conducive situation.
But how to determine when you reach some sort of a equilibrium? |
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So, if volatility does not tell the story, is it transaction numbers or pool sizes (or network numbers in general) then?
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The Bitcoin's price is always volatile and that's a known fact about it since its creation almost. There is no new thing here, just you need to deal with it. But in the near future, the price will (most likely) keep rising for a while.
I agree, this has been an ongoing debate for so long. Bitcoin's price had been volatile ever since so I don't know why people keep on asking about its volatility. Well, I have a lot of discussions with non-Bitcoin users (i.e. my PhD supervisor or research partners) and volatility is the number they look at (next to the price). |
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Hey,
thanks for your reply and interest. I agree, quite high volatility has been here and will be here, but from a personal standpoint I am a bit worried about the price rise as I do not understand the reason for that at the moment.
But back to the question: What would be indicators which would let your alarm bells ring?
Thanks for the help,
Marcel
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I am not sure, if I can agree to your second sentence but, at which point would you be worried? |
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Hi, I have a question as developer of the Bitcoin Seismograph ( http://www.bitcoinseismograph.com). The tool has identified a high Bitcoin volatility (above 25% for 60 days) due to recent price rises! So my question is, if you see that as a warning sign or just normal behavior of Bitcoin. At which volatility level would you be concerned? The Bitcoin Seismograph is intended to support Bitcoin community to monitor the Bitcoin ecosystem and identify unexpected developments earlier. It needs your feedback for finetuning the analysis algorithms. Thanks for your help, Marcel |
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Hey Bitcoin community, since 2014 I have researched Bitcoin and Bitcoin entrepreneurs to understand resiliency of the Bitcoin community resulting in a website called Bitcoin Seismograph, https://bitcoinseismograph.info/. In case you are interested in my research, please have a look here: http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?pid=S1807-17752016000100003&script=sci_arttextTo make a success and help me finish my PhD thesis, I need your feedback via https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeafnK64SDkSi4rApyBpcQwGu-4eIWtMMQJ7BnXCcPqiWCILA/viewform?usp=send_form or in this thread for finetuning the algorithms and UI. Every comment is appreciated. The Bitcoin Seismograph is intended to support open Bitcoin entrepreneurs, Bitcoin community member, Bitcoin users and other interested parties to monitor the Bitcoin ecosystem more easily and to understand movements and unexpected developments more quickly. This website is free to use, I will publish the open source code mid of next month. Due to high volatility in the Bitcoin market and some strong fluctuations we have currently identified some unexpectedly strong movements in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Nevertheless, that might be a misinterpretation due to missing data to train our algorithms, so I need your feedback to make them better. Looking forward to read your comments, many thanks, Marcel |
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