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Intel Core i7-7700K
or
AMD RYZEN 7 1700X
hashrate ?
My 1800x is getting 58k hps |
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What is the significance of being paid in NVOS weekly that sells for a static $0.99 instead of being paid directly in the crypto? And when these sell for $0.99 with the option of being converted to BTC instantly. What if I decide not to convert to BTC and hold NVOS and the price of Bitcoin tanks then I sell my NVOS for BTC? On a large enough scale waiting to exchange NVOS in this scenario could result in getting more BTC than earned through fees. Would you be able to cover the BTC in this scenario?
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Hey all I'm having issues getting everything synced. My blockchain was only 72 days behind, but took a week to sync the Daemon. Now I'm refreshing my wallet and it has been 4 days and counting, still have 20k blocks to refresh through and going at a rate of 1 block every 20 seconds and keeps getting slower. Is there a way to save my progress mid refresh, any flags I can start my wallet with to save as it refreshes, or any assistance on getting my wallet to refresh quicker?
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I really wonder how they got in there
Someone could have just been brute forcing the email for the past 5 years. Although if it were that you think the provider would have noticed by now. I can only imagine how many failed attempts it would take for a decent password.
I guess we will just have to enjoy the popcorn and see if he reveals the attack vector.
The lost password reset question was a birthday. Probably would have been easy to crack. On p2pfoundation the birth date is either 1974 (Jan 1 - September  or 1975 (September 9 - December 31). Watching when the age changed from 38-39 would have given the exact date. That is of course if he was consistent with the birth date. |
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My 7950 has around 270 h/s but it stops about an hour - 2 hours into mining. No errors pop up, the hashrate just goes down to 0 suddenly. All stock settings with catalyst 13.12.
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The reason dividends were going up was due to initial deployment not because reinvestment could keep up with difficulty rise. Leaving the reinvestment rate alone means investors lose less, and you still make a healthy profit.
Spot on! In the case of 65/35 dividend/reinvestment we cannot keep up with difficulty. This is why we are doing this IPO and changing our strategy, so we do keep up with difficulty and be able to grow large. But this new reinvestment plan can only keep up with difficulty until August 4, 2014, as seen in your forecast in the prospectus. After that date we are in the exact same situation with not being able to keep up with the difficulty using just reinvestment funds. The only way it can sustain is if there is a big price spike in BTC before that date to buy much more miners with reinvestment funds when the reinvestment is largest and network hashrate is lowest, but then a different problem arises. Are there any plans to to tackle this issue when it comes up again? thats only 1 view based on one projection you can generate thousands of multifactor exponential projections when considering everything i think they can keep up, because they have the ability to adapt, unlike your projection individuals miners have the same problems, yet we persist That is not an exponential projection, it is a linear network hashrate projection. This is also not my projection it is the projection done by CryptX in the prospectus. Individual miners have the same problem but they have the ability to reinvest 100% and not worry about splitting income with other people so it is more sustainable in the long run as a solo miner. The reason I bring CryptX's projection up is because his business plan is derived from how he thinks the project will do. And it can be seen in the forecast that his own plan will start to fall apart August 4, 2014 leading us back right to this issue. Also one issue with what you say is "..i think they can keep up.." You are putting faith into this mining operation because you are invested in it, not looking at what is laid out in front of you in the mine operators own forecast. If you are going to be posting silly projections that CryptX's business plan isn't based off of then there is no point in talking to you, lose all of your investment. There is also one fatal flaw in the chart you just posted it assumes a BTC price of $4,000 by the end of this month. |
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The reason dividends were going up was due to initial deployment not because reinvestment could keep up with difficulty rise. Leaving the reinvestment rate alone means investors lose less, and you still make a healthy profit.
Spot on! In the case of 65/35 dividend/reinvestment we cannot keep up with difficulty. This is why we are doing this IPO and changing our strategy, so we do keep up with difficulty and be able to grow large. But this new reinvestment plan can only keep up with difficulty until August 4, 2014, as seen in your forecast in the prospectus. After that date we are in the exact same situation with not being able to keep up with the difficulty using just reinvestment funds. The only way it can sustain is if there is a big price spike in BTC before that date to buy much more miners with reinvestment funds when the reinvestment is largest and network hashrate is lowest, but then a different problem arises. Are there any plans to to tackle this issue when it comes up again? |
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havelock does not provide voting.
this is probably the only thing this project is missing, and people would stop wining  Well shareholders voting rights were stripped in this latest prospectus so it wouldn't do anything now. These issues should have been voted on before this latest prospectus was even released. From the December prospectus: "The 65/35 percentages are chosen after careful consideration of the current and the future market. The percentages can change if shareholders vote to change it. Such action will only occur if the state of the Bitcoin mining space demands it." "All shares issued have voting power. CryptX will not change the direction or goal of the PETA-MINE without shareholder votes." This voting power is no longer mentioned in the new prospectus. The 65/35 split is no longer the dividend/reinvestment plan as originally stated when the mine started. Is it right to just go changing terms on shareholders like this with no input, especially given those 2 quotes above from the last prospectus? Plus the Havelock description still says 65% in dividends will be paid out to shareholders on a weekly basis when the new dividend plan is 10% +3% each 10 days at the start, dwindling down to a 1% increase a year from now as outlined in the forecast in the new prospectus. This is very misleading for investors and should be fixed. This will probably be deleted, but this is information that should be seen. |
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PETA is meant to be a mining operation that continues to function indefinitely
How can petamine function indefinitely when they are charging themselves $0.25/kwh vs the competition at less than $0.05/kwh? how are the others making any profit? they might be charging differently I'm confused is petamine paying $0.25/kwh or is that a service by petamine which customers pay that rate? CrytpX takes out $0.25/kwh out from the total BTC mined by Petamine for the week. This is taken out and after that the dividends and reinvestment is calculated from what is left over. I'm not sure how much CryptX pays per kwh and it might be posted in this thread or the prospectus, but that fee also includes warehouse space and maintenance cost. Do we know if petamine is selling themselves electricity? If so it should be less than $0.05 × 1.5 (PUE + hosting costs) Even if they are buying electricity for $0.1/kwh they shouldn't be charging more than $0.15/kwh. $0.45/kwh is ludicrous. How do we know $0.25 is anywhere near their costs when they managed to simply cut the price in half as soon as hosting costed ~50% of what they mined. I bet they can go as low as $0.1/kwh and still profit. Especially if they are selling electricity to themselves. I do not know if petamine is selling electricity to itself, but the linkedin page can be found as mentioned by another user in the other thread which could potentially hold some answers. |
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PETA is meant to be a mining operation that continues to function indefinitely
How can petamine function indefinitely when they are charging themselves $0.25/kwh vs the competition at less than $0.05/kwh? how are the others making any profit? they might be charging differently I'm confused is petamine paying $0.25/kwh or is that a service by petamine which customers pay that rate? CrytpX takes out $0.25/kwh out from the total BTC mined by Petamine for the week. This is taken out and after that the dividends and reinvestment is calculated from what is left over. I'm not sure how much CryptX pays per kwh and it might be posted in this thread or the prospectus, but that fee also includes warehouse space and maintenance cost. |
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Best case scenario 33k shares sold during IPO 0 weeks to pay back debt after IPO is finished.
Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends
10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.155 39.2394
11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 296.854 44.3575
11606828781 83086.185 1595.000 483.77 119.064 364.706 302.706 62.000
13347853098 95549.112 1674.000 441.505 107.561 333.944 263.816 70.128
13347853098 95549.112 1755.000 462.869 111.778 351.091 263.318 87.773
15350031063 109881.479 1825.000 418.548 100.510 318.38 226.050 92.330
17652535722 126363.701 1895.000 377.915 90.393 287.522 195.515 92.007
17652535722 126363.701 1955.000 389.880 93.084 296.796 192.918 103.879
20300416080 145318.256 2007.000 348.044 83.048 264.996 161.648 103.349
20300416080 145318.256 2058.000 356.888 85.215 271.673 157.570 114.103
and i expect it will go even better as btc value goes up and hardware cost/Gh goes down, which is not factored in here
So this is your prediction? Okay it looks like you copy pasted mine but changed a few numbers around. But something you cannot deny is the fact that the estimated BTC keeps on decreasing the longer the mine runs. By your own numbers posted you will see the estimated BTC approach 0 and once reinvestment falls too far behind difficulty increase dividends will suffer shortly after. In this case you have a 10 week projection with less than a 50% apy. By your own prediction the average decrease in Estimated BTC is 16.7 every week the mine operates. After just over 21 weeks of this the estimated BTC will be near 0. Again these are your numbers that you posted in this thread. |
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i can defend them because i know they are doing the right thing
according to your logic no cloud mining operation in existence will exist beyond the next 3 months
i can also make a highly inaccurate projection if you want
to bring up the accuracy i would need to take year over year trends, altho not enough years have gone by yet to get any good reading out of even that
in regards to my situation, satoshidice 163 bitcoins 2012
Cloud mining companies pay out dividends straight away, when the net asset value of the capital is at its highest, producing a much better ROI, they are doing the complete opposite here. Ok. Look, dude I'm sorry. But please understand, I had a career looking at things like this. The strategy they have selected is solely to increase their own earnings, not shareholders. You really think I'd be going apeshit mental if they wern't trying to do something extremely sinister? If they paid out dividends at a 35/65 ratio again all investors would see a good return, but instead, they are trying to build the mine up as big as possible even though difficulty is going to make it much less profitable. Why? increased hosting fees. you dont understand that 35/65 would be bad for long term investors, what they are doing now will benefit all investors companies that pay out dividends straight away may be good for initial investors but completely doom the project and screw over later investors Run the numbers yourself, look into the cost of running these miners, what is being charged, how difficulty rises compared to how much reinvestment will cover. An engineer like yourself should know how to do this. Don't put blind faith into a company because they say they are doing what is best for the investors. Numbers speak more than words. Or ignore everything discussed here if your goal is to make money for others. If you do run the numbers post them here so we can all see why this is such a great investment for long term holders like you say. |
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As requested here is 52 week projection. After a year the dividends are 4141 BTC which is ~ .041 BTC per shareholder given the best case scenario.
But again this should be far off of what is expected since as the time frame grows larger the accuracy falls. The reinvestment becomes worthless towards the end of the year so the plan will have to change even if you are one of those long term investors that think the mine can last forever.
@webbrowser I will be glad to have the hosting fee remain constant or even go up, that would be even worse for shareholders. You do realize by the hosting fee going down that is more BTC for reinvestment and dividends so if you want me to I can redo this with higher hosting fees so that's even less dividend and reinvestment funds. So if you want me to make this change you will see an even worse outcome.
Don't get tied up on the hosting fee guys because anything more realistic for hosting fees will result in a worse outcome for the mine and shareholders.
Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back
10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 -39.239
11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 41.287 -80.526
11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 54.287 -134.813
13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 59.133 -193.946
13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 72.858 -266.805
15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 76.062 -342.867
17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 78.503 -421.370
17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 91.372 -512.742
20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 91.002 -603.744
20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 103.488 -707.233
23345478492 167115.994 2880.427 434.350 108.587 325.762 224.776 100.986 -808.219
23345478492 167115.994 3010.656 453.987 113.497 340.490 227.788 112.702 -920.921
26847300266 192183.394 3125.628 409.847 102.462 307.385 199.186 108.200 -1029.121
26847300266 192183.394 3242.141 425.125 106.281 318.844 199.915 118.929 -1148.050
30874395306 221010.903 3344.024 381.291 95.323 285.968 173.297 112.671 -1260.721
30874395306 221010.903 3446.280 392.950 98.238 294.713 172.407 122.306 -1383.027
35505554602 254162.538 3534.921 350.484 87.621 262.863 148.255 114.608 -1497.635
35505554602 254162.538 3623.106 359.228 89.807 269.421 146.296 123.125 -1620.761
40831387792 292286.919 3698.938 318.910 79.728 239.183 124.853 114.329 -1735.090
40831387792 292286.919 3773.768 325.362 81.340 244.021 122.255 121.767 -1856.856
46956095961 336129.956 3837.630 287.711 71.928 215.783 103.576 112.207 -1969.064
46956095961 336129.956 3900.163 292.399 73.100 219.299 100.658 118.641 -2087.705
53999510355 386549.450 3953.142 257.714 64.428 193.285 84.659 108.626 -2196.331
53999510355 386549.450 4004.628 261.070 65.268 195.803 81.650 114.153 -2310.484
62099436909 444531.867 4047.931 229.473 57.368 172.104 68.153 103.951 -2414.435
62099436909 444531.867 4089.695 231.840 57.960 173.880 65.205 108.675 -2523.110
71414352445 511211.647 4124.555 203.319 50.830 152.489 53.981 98.508 -2621.618
71414352445 511211.647 4157.907 204.963 51.241 153.722 51.189 102.533 -2724.151
82126505312 587893.395 4185.519 179.412 44.853 134.559 41.982 92.577 -2816.727
82126505312 587893.395 4211.702 180.534 45.134 135.401 39.402 95.999 -2912.726
94445481109 676077.404 4233.176 157.787 39.447 118.340 31.952 86.388 -2999.114
94445481109 676077.404 4253.329 158.538 39.634 118.903 29.607 89.296 -3088.411
108612303275 777489.014 4269.673 138.389 34.597 103.792 23.664 80.127 -3168.538
108612303275 777489.014 4284.817 138.880 34.720 104.160 22.707 81.453 -3249.991
124904148766 894112.367 4296.921 121.106 30.277 90.830 18.893 71.937 -3321.928
124904148766 894112.367 4308.535 121.433 30.358 91.075 18.033 73.042 -3394.970
143639771081 1028229.222 4318.199 105.831 26.458 79.373 14.922 64.451 -3459.421
143639771081 1028229.222 4327.423 106.057 26.514 79.543 14.159 65.384 -3524.805
165185736743 1182463.605 4335.055 92.386 23.097 69.290 11.641 57.649 -3582.454
165185736743 1182463.605 4342.297 92.541 23.135 69.405 10.966 58.439 -3640.894
189963597254 1359833.145 4348.251 80.580 20.145 60.435 8.944 51.491 -3692.385
189963597254 1359833.145 4353.861 80.684 20.171 60.513 8.351 52.162 -3744.547
218458136843 1563808.117 4358.436 70.234 17.559 52.676 6.742 45.933 -3790.480
218458136843 1563808.117 4362.707 70.303 17.576 52.727 6.222 46.505 -3836.986
251226857369 1798379.335 4366.156 61.181 15.295 45.886 4.956 40.930 -3877.916
251226857369 1798379.335 4369.338 61.226 15.306 45.919 4.500 41.419 -3919.335
288910885974 2068136.235 4371.873 53.271 13.318 39.953 3.516 36.437 -3955.772
288910885974 2068136.235 4374.175 53.299 13.325 39.974 3.118 36.856 -3992.629
332247518871 2378356.670 4375.973 46.366 11.591 34.774 2.365 32.410 -4025.038
332247518871 2378356.670 4377.568 46.383 11.596 34.787 2.018 32.769 -4057.808
382084646701 2735110.171 4378.778 40.344 10.086 30.258 1.452 28.806 -4086.613
382084646701 2735110.171 4379.810 40.353 10.088 30.265 1.150 29.115 -4115.728
439397343706 3145376.697 4380.553 35.096 8.774 26.322 0.737 25.585 -4141.313
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Here's the thing, everything is already set in motion and regardless of if a single share in this IPO is bought CryptX still wins. He still gets his 25% hosting fee and the shareholders are left footing the bill, it'll take a while to pay back the company he bought the miners from but it doesn't matter. He gets his 25% every week and shareholders pay the bill from dividends. Share price doesn't matter CrytpX still makes the same amount of BTC, IPO doesn't matter, just means even less dividends for shareholders.
There is no way for CryptX to lose on this deal unless you use your voting power as shareholders to request the original 35% reinvestment to be used to pay back the company and request 65% in dividends like in the original prospectus. This will at least get you a nice ROI in the upcoming months but the mine will die within the year. This is the best choice for shareholders imo.
I'll post the 52 week data in just a minute.
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Okay after adjusting the reinvestment it is a more optimistic outcome and the adjustments in weeks to payback debt, dividends received are adjusted now. Worst case still 9 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 192.708 Best case still 0 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 2149.708 Realistic projection goes up to 5 weeks but total dividend to shareholders up to 1142.708 This reinvestment plan CryptX has will actually extend the life on the mine and will bring the estimated year prediction up to ~13,000 BTC. About 30% better than my first prediction. How can the dividend go up in the first ten weeks if the reinvestment percentage is much higher? No offence but you have done something seriously wrong. Please post the numbers The dividend will suffer a loss during the first few weeks after IPO but the additional reinvestment will actually keep up with the difficulty increase longer than the original 35% reinvestment plan. As you can see in the realistic projection it will take an extra week to pay off the debt but the estimated BTC each week is also greater that the mine will yield. Notice how the estimated BTC column stays at a higher yield compared to the first prediction at 35% reinvestment and you will understand how a higher dividend is possible after 10 weeks of operation. Since CryptX's predictions are based on 10 day periods and mine are on 7 day periods to equal the target blocktime the reinvestment % is down to 2.1% which when averaged out to CryptX's 10 day of 3% less will be almost the same. Worst case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 1917.761 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 1695.973 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 1447.476 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 1211.668 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 954.288 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 713.114 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 487.331 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 246.879 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 26.164 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -206.595 Best case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 -39.239 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 -261.027 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 -509.524 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 -745.332 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 -1002.712 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 -1243.886 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 -1469.669 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 -1710.121 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 -1930.836 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -2163.595 Realistic case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 967.761 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 745.973 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 497.476 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 261.668 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 4.288 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 -236.886 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 -462.669 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 -703.121 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 -923.836 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -1156.595 Ok. Theres your problem. You have only used the new reinvestment percentage for the dividend for the first week. See where it jumps from 39.239 to 221.778? I don't think you pasted the formula down  Thank you for spotting that! Ok after dragging the formula down WOW! This reinvestment plan is amazing for the mine and CryptX! But for shareholders it is HORRIBLE! Worst case: 21 weeks to pay back debt. Best case: 0 weeks but only 707 BTC total dividends paid out to shareholders after 10 weeks. Realistic case: 13 weeks to pay back debt with a total of 22.121 BTC in dividends paid out to shareholders. Edit: added the 10 week time frame to best case. |
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Okay after adjusting the reinvestment it is a more optimistic outcome and the adjustments in weeks to payback debt, dividends received are adjusted now. Worst case still 9 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 192.708 Best case still 0 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 2149.708 Realistic projection goes up to 5 weeks but total dividend to shareholders up to 1142.708 This reinvestment plan CryptX has will actually extend the life on the mine and will bring the estimated year prediction up to ~13,000 BTC. About 30% better than my first prediction. How can the dividend go up in the first ten weeks if the reinvestment percentage is much higher? No offence but you have done something seriously wrong. Please post the numbers The dividend will suffer a loss during the first few weeks after IPO but the additional reinvestment will actually keep up with the difficulty increase longer than the original 35% reinvestment plan. As you can see in the realistic projection it will take an extra week to pay off the debt but the estimated BTC each week is also greater that the mine will yield. Notice how the estimated BTC column stays at a higher yield compared to the first prediction at 35% reinvestment and you will understand how a higher dividend is possible after 10 weeks of operation. Since CryptX's predictions are based on 10 day periods and mine are on 7 day periods to equal the target blocktime the reinvestment % is down to 2.1% which when averaged out to CryptX's 10 day of 3% less will be almost the same. Worst case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 1917.761 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 1695.973 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 1447.476 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 1211.668 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 954.288 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 713.114 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 487.331 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 246.879 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 26.164 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -206.595 Best case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 -39.239 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 -261.027 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 -509.524 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 -745.332 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 -1002.712 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 -1243.886 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 -1469.669 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 -1710.121 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 -1930.836 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -2163.595 Realistic case. Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back 10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 353.154 39.239 967.761 11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 299.925 221.788 745.973 11606828781 83086.185 1680.637 509.737 127.434 382.302 328.015 248.497 497.476 13347853098 95549.112 1834.048 483.710 120.927 362.782 303.649 235.808 261.668 13347853098 95549.112 2001.827 527.959 131.990 395.970 323.111 257.380 4.288 15350031063 109881.479 2157.143 494.715 123.679 371.036 294.974 241.173 -236.886 17652535722 126363.701 2322.413 463.146 115.786 347.359 268.856 225.784 -462.669 17652535722 126363.701 2473.292 493.235 123.309 369.926 278.554 240.452 -703.121 20300416080 145318.256 2610.811 452.747 113.187 339.560 248.558 220.714 -923.836 20300416080 145318.256 2753.290 477.455 119.364 358.091 254.603 232.759 -1156.595 |
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Okay after adjusting the reinvestment it is a more optimistic outcome and the adjustments in weeks to payback debt, dividends received are adjusted now. Worst case still 9 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 192.708 Best case still 0 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 2149.708 Realistic projection goes up to 5 weeks but total dividend to shareholders up to 1142.708 This reinvestment plan CryptX has will actually extend the life on the mine and will bring the estimated year prediction up to ~13,000 BTC. About 30% better than my first prediction. |
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I went ahead and did some estimations based off of an average difficulty rise being around 14-15%, 14 day target difficulty adjustment period, 35% reinvestment, 2 week delivery time of new Bitfury miners from reinvestment funds used every week. This is of course reliant upon if we reinvest 35% into Bitfury BF3500 miners every week and each runs at a consistent 3.5th/s. My other predictions earlier were too optimistic and didn't account for difficulty adjustment or reinvestment which I now added in to the calculation.
Worst case scenario 0 shares sold during IPO over 9 weeks to pay back debt after IPO is finished. 10 week dividend total 61.61714213 BTC
Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back
10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 137.338 255.056 1701.944
11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 119.424 221.788 1480.156
11606828781 83086.185 1570.248 476.255 119.064 357.192 125.017 232.175 1247.982
13347853098 95549.112 1631.333 430.246 107.561 322.684 112.939 209.745 1038.237
13347853098 95549.112 1695.279 447.111 111.778 335.333 117.367 217.966 820.271
15350031063 109881.479 1753.047 402.040 100.510 301.530 105.536 195.995 624.276
17652535722 126363.701 1813.080 361.572 90.393 271.179 94.913 176.266 448.009
17652535722 126363.701 1867.061 372.337 93.084 279.253 97.739 181.514 266.495
20300416080 145318.256 1915.609 332.190 83.048 249.143 87.200 161.943 104.552
20300416080 145318.256 1965.602 340.860 85.215 255.645 89.476 166.169 -61.617
Best case scenario 33k shares sold during IPO 0 weeks to pay back debt after IPO is finished. 10 week dividends total 2018.617 ~ .02 BTC per share
Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back
10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 137.338 255.056 -255.056
11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 119.424 221.788 -476.844
11606828781 83086.185 1570.248 476.255 119.064 357.192 125.017 232.175 -709.018
13347853098 95549.112 1631.333 430.246 107.561 322.684 112.939 209.745 -918.763
13347853098 95549.112 1695.279 447.111 111.778 335.333 117.367 217.966 -1136.729
15350031063 109881.479 1753.047 402.040 100.510 301.530 105.536 195.995 -1332.724
17652535722 126363.701 1813.080 361.572 90.393 271.179 94.913 176.266 -1508.991
17652535722 126363.701 1867.061 372.337 93.084 279.253 97.739 181.514 -1690.505
20300416080 145318.256 1915.609 332.190 83.048 249.143 87.200 161.943 -1852.448
20300416080 145318.256 1965.602 340.860 85.215 255.645 89.476 166.169 -2018.617
1 batch sold realistic projection 4-5 weeks to pay back debt after IPO finished. 10 week dividend total 1011.617 ~ .013 BTC per share total
Difficulty Network Hash Peta hashrate Estimated BTC Hosting Fee Peta BTC Reinvestment Dividends BTC to pay back
10092894592 72248.856 1500.000 523.192 130.798 392.394 137.338 255.056 751.944
11606828781 83086.185 1500.000 454.949 113.737 341.212 119.424 221.788 530.156
11606828781 83086.185 1570.248 476.255 119.064 357.192 125.017 232.175 297.982
13347853098 95549.112 1631.333 430.246 107.561 322.684 112.939 209.745 88.237
13347853098 95549.112 1695.279 447.111 111.778 335.333 117.367 217.966 -129.729
15350031063 109881.479 1753.047 402.040 100.510 301.530 105.536 195.995 -325.724
17652535722 126363.701 1813.080 361.572 90.393 271.179 94.913 176.266 -501.991
17652535722 126363.701 1867.061 372.337 93.084 279.253 97.739 181.514 -683.505
20300416080 145318.256 1915.609 332.190 83.048 249.143 87.200 161.943 -845.448
20300416080 145318.256 1965.602 340.860 85.215 255.645 89.476 166.169 -1011.617
My 1 year estimate on total coins mined is just under 10,000 BTC unless CryptX can get better miners than the Bitfury BF3500 or some that are cheaper btc/ghs. Or if the Bitcoin price jumps up considerably the reinvestment will be able to purchase many more miners. There are way too many variables for an accurate prediction and as the time frame goes on the less accurate predictions are. That's why I capped out my charts at 10 weeks after IPO even though I've made calculations up to a year out for this mine. This mine is entirely dependent on this upcoming IPO and that is too much of a risk factor for me to take, so I'm out. If the best case scenario happens then I missed out on a good thing but the risk is just too high for me since it's entirely dependent on reinvestment every week.
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I was wondering if someone could clarify a couple things i'm still confused about? i have not been following PETA or CryptX and have only been lurking past couple days after Havelock announcement. I'm new to difficulty and mining as well so forgive questions if they are overly elementary.
After reading the recent update on havelock about the upcoming ipo offerings and reading back the last half dozen or so pages of this thread...i am confused still when dividends at 15/GH will start being paid back to investors?
forgive me if this was obvious somewhere and i simply missed it but so far i haven’t come across a concrete answer.
from the information iv'e come across on the chart posted a page or so back, it seems this happens after all ipo shares have been sold. at this point dividends to invest are zero and i assume start to be funnelled back to investors. what happens if they do not all sell and when is the final offering ending? whats the backup plan if not even a fraction of the final shares offered are sold?
and how do you guarantee any of this? you claim 25,000 bitcoin will be mined in a year but even a modest increase in difficulty to 15,000,000,000 which seems very likely in next couple months, you will be lucky to pull 18,000 BTC. what am i missing?
are investors guaranteed 15/GH dividends no matter what happens by a certain date? I'd like to invest a little bitcoin but so far some things not adding up for me.
thanks for any help answering these questions.
My post further up covered this a bit. The chart you are looking at has a category named Dividends to be paid after IPO or something along those lines. What that number is is the total amount of dividends CryptX will not payout to shareholders and instead use them to pay back the company he bought the hashing power from. It also doesn't show what happens if 0 shares are sold and that is 1957 BTC worth of dividends to be withheld. So when will the dividends start being paid back to investors? After CryptX pays off all his debts is the answer. We can do a quick estimation that is extremely optimistic at the time frame of when you will start to see a single Satoshi paid out to investors right now. 200 BTC was mined last week so tripple hash rate means triple the coins to 600 BTC expected to be mined. 25% is still gone to hosting fees so that leaves 450 BTC left to be paid out as dividends and reinvestment. But what CryptX did was force all shareholders to give up dividends to pay back the company so it's now 100% reinvestment. Best case scenario and what you should all hope happens: All 33k shares are sold in this IPO and dividends start to be paid out next month. Worst case scenario no IPO shares are sold and shareholders are stuck with the bill and must pay 1957 BTC. 1957 / 450 = 4.34 and that number is the amount of weeks until the hardware is paid off from shareholders. It will take just over 4 weeks, but remember this is an optimistic calculation as it doesn't take into account the difficulty increase that will happen. That is 4-5 weeks AFTER IPO ends for a total of 6-7 weeks. If 1 batch of 10,000 is sold only 1007 BTC need to be repaid and that will end up taking 1007/450 = 2.23 weeks of no dividend payments to pay back the company. But again overly optimistic because it doesn't take into account difficulty rise so in this case it will take 4-5 weeks total to start seeing dividend payments again. You can see that if all the shares are not sold how bad this will be for shareholders and how outraged you should be about CryptX forcing the bill onto holders via holding dividend payments. But he still gets his 25% hosting fee for his pocket. Start asking questions as to why shareholders have to foot the bill and not just use the 35% reinvestment like how the prospectus says. Ask why there was no shareholder vote on the change in direction of the mine when the prospectus says shareholders have voting rights and a few paragraphs away says that shareholders should vote if they want the dividend/reinvestment %'s changed. I am no longer a shareholder because if I still held any shares in this mine I wouldn't see a penny in dividends until at least a month - month and a half out from now. Shareholders have voting rights, it explicitly says it in the prospectus so use your voting rights to keep the mine how it was and only allow CryptX to use 35% reinvestment to pay back the company, not your dividends. |
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Lastly, do you think you could tell us what that 1000BTC will be spent on cryptx? Shares or what? After all you can't be planning to buy back shares you've just aquired off market at a lower price... or can you?
 You can see in this table we will be prefinancing up to 1000 BTC. What this table tells me is you are at least 1957 BTC in the hole(not counting these next 2 weeks of you using dividends and reinvestment funds already used) after making this deal and you are putting it on the shareholders to pay back the company that CryptX got all the extra hashing power from. You are withholding our dividends until all of this 1957 BTC is paid back to the company. First off that is what the reinvestment is for, not dividends. "The 65/35 percentages are chosen after careful consideration of the current and the future market. The percentages can change if shareholders vote to change it." What is happening is 100% is going to paying debt until that debt is paid off, could also be classified as reinvestment if you want to ease your mind. This was never voted upon and shareholders should still receive the dividend payment throughout IPO and after that fails shareholders should still get dividends paid, the 35% reinvestment should be the only thing going to pay off the hardware. "All shares issued have voting power. CryptX will not change the direction or goal of the PETA-MINE without shareholder votes". This little detour to give up our dividends is a huge direction change that was never voted on, I sold out everything on this pump and will not be buying back in if CryptX thinks this is right to do to shareholders, who knows what else he'll change and what terms he'll completely ignore from the prospectus. Best case scenario all shares are sold in IPO and shareholders only give up ~.003 per share in dividends. Worst case scenario no body buys these shares at IPO and it takes an additional 5 weeks(projection done with difficulty never changing) to pay back the company and that will be a total of 7 weeks no dividends. Most likely scenario 1 batch is sold and 1007 BTC will still be needed to pay the company back and your dividends will be withheld for an additional 2-3 weeks after IPO is over for a total of 4-5 weeks with no dividend payments. Edit: The last paragraph predictions are based off of a non changing difficulty so even the worst case scenario is overly optimistic. |
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