[HAVELOCK] PETAMINE - 1,150 TH/S HASH RATE (1GH/S per Unit)

[michaelGedi]

I think there is a lot of confusion going on about the latest developments. Let me try to elaborate on this.

First we want to clear some misunderstandings:

“You bought 14,500 units and now you sell them at a higher price in the IPO to make a profit for yourself”.

The money that is raised at the IPO will go to the purchase of 1000 TH/s of mining equipment, which costs about 3,760 BTC. Financial breakdown to deploy 1PH/s:

• Cost: 3,760 BTC
• Income:

                * 33,794 shares at IPO: 3,313 BTC
                * Current reinvestment funds: 150 BTC
                * Mining revenue (16-31 May): 300 BTC

“do you think you could tell us what that 1000BTC will be spent on cryptx? Shares or what?”

We will pre-finance the 1000 BTC to be able to purchase up to 1000 TH/s after the IPO. This means it is a loan from us to the PetaMine. The more shares are sold in the IPO, the less has to be pre-financed and paid back in dividends.

“Why are dividends withheld for a few weeks?”

This is a joint effort of current investors, new investors and CryptX. Investing in new hardware now will have a much better impact in the long run on both unit value and dividends.

“But they are misleading people so they can maximize their own profits. The first few months will be the most profitable, but instead of pumping out dividends then are going to use it to reinvest so they can have more machines, which makes them more money. “

We can tell all of you that we have already invested over 1,000,000$ of our own private money into this project. This money has been spent on:

•   Datacenter: Electric installation, cooling, infrastructure, alarms, network, etc
•   Shipping costs: We have paid all the express shipping from US (Cointerra), from Switzerland (Bitmine), from China (Dragon miners, custom miners).
•   PSU: we have bought about 200 psu’s so the Coincraft desk could be delivered faster.
•   Custom miners: Apart from the chips, we have paid the full production of 250 miners.
•   Custom designs
•   Labor costs
•   Etc

We have a margin on hosting costs, so it is in our interest that PetaMine grows. We have cut hosting from 0.45$/kwh to 0.25$/kwh because we believe in the project for the long term and want it to have every chance to succeed.

Old situation:

We were hashing at about 500 TH/s with 80,760 units. What would have happened if we did not make some drastic changes? 

First we would pay the last part of the Bitmine contract and we would be in the same situation like before. We would have to wait on the RIG’s to be delivered. In best case, all RIG’s would be deployed in a couple of weeks and we would hash at 700 TH/s with 80,760 units outstanding. This would have meant 8.67 GH/share.

Second every week the dividend payments would have gone down and the hosting fees would have gone up.

The overall result would have been that the PetaMine would produce less and less dividend until costs became higher than revenue. The consequences would have been a dropping unit price and a dropping dividend.

New situation:

We have cut the hosting fee from 0.45$/kwh to 0.25$/kwh. In other words we gave up a large portion of our income to the PetaMine project.  We could have left it at 0.45$ and receive a lot more hosting for the coming months. Instead we want the project to thrive and become one of the larger players in the Bitcoin mining place.
We bought back about 14,500 shares with the money we otherwise had to spend on Bitmine for our second part of the contract. We did this because we are convinced that we could use these shares to take the PetaMine to another level.

What will be the overall result?

Plain and simple, if the IPO is successful PetaMine will be much larger and the unit holders will be owner of 15 GH/s per share instead of 8.68 GH/s per share. On top of this the costs of the mine are almost halved.
We are convinced that we all have to look at this project with our long term glasses on. Big dividends in the short run will result in a dead project in the long run. PetaMine cannot simultaneously grow exponentially and pay large dividends at the same time. We want to become and stay one of the large players in Bitcoin mining.

sounds fair - more info, more transparency, more discussion with unit holders will go a long way...

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[Anotheranonlol]

and I thought that the decrease in cost of fees was due to scryptx launch.
14500 shares, out of 80k, your biggest investor wanted to cash out. That's really a good motivator to stay for all of us. Sure. The whale goes and we should stay.
For all your investment and cost part: show us your financials or do you want the shareholders to believe you are so generous spending money for the shareholders profit?

can you come out clean and tell us how much you paid those 14500 shares? was it the price at that moment or the new ipo price?
Was that the biggest shareholder?
Isn't the project already falling behind, and you are halting payouts to invest further? Stuck at 500ths while we should be at way more?
Wasn't the alteration of reinvestment rate something subject to shareholders voting?

Are you going to do the same in few weeks for scryptx project as well?

it could be, in fairness, that your decision was the wise one for the long term success of the project. But it is how you carried out the changes and communication that was the bad thing. At least for me.

And now, with more btc funding requests, this starts smelling as the cousin of a ponzi scheme.
Shareholders need to suggest and promote the new ipo or they will not be able to sell their expensive shares or re-start getting their dividends.

I don't see how this could possibly go wrong.

Just because a large investor decides to exit their position shouldn't really say much. You say 'we should stay' that doesn't make much sense. You stay if you think it's a good investment opportunity, otherwise you leave. You don't have to buy in then exit just because someone holding a bigger position does the same.

 for all you know these shares were always owned by cryptx and just withdrawn from the market, then sold prior to announcement of the increased hashrate for max profit. I think everyone was waiting for cryptx to sell some, obviously you would expect them to boost the share price in advance because it's in their best interest, even a scammer without care for future of the project would do the same. this is why it made sense to get in because you can rest assured they will pump it... (why sell for 0.07 when you can get 0.09) so they set a floor with the announcement. I can't imagine with havelocks depth and their own scryptx offering diluting things that trying to dump 30k shares on market will work out well though, but who knows, might be surprised.

For new or old investors; 1.5PH is 3x the amount hashing right now and still more than 2x the amount projected before. to which everyone rejoiced at not long ago.. , Bitfury and peta has set a precedent in the past for timely delivery/installation. Remember that the hardware is existing, in stock. Not a preorder nonsense.

Shareprice before floating around 0.075, rising above 0.1 well before 500th is online.. who other than a very nervous individual who's been burned in the past would decide that 0.0855 is good price to cash out for right now?

[pedrog]

and I thought that the decrease in cost of fees was due to scryptx launch.
14500 shares, out of 80k, your biggest investor wanted to cash out. That's really a good motivator to stay for all of us. Sure. The whale goes and we should stay.
For all your investment and cost part: show us your financials or do you want the shareholders to believe you are so generous spending money for the shareholders profit?

can you come out clean and tell us how much you paid those 14500 shares? was it the price at that moment or the new ipo price?
Was that the biggest shareholder?
Isn't the project already falling behind, and you are halting payouts to invest further? Stuck at 500ths while we should be at way more?
Wasn't the alteration of reinvestment rate something subject to shareholders voting?

Are you going to do the same in few weeks for scryptx project as well?

it could be, in fairness, that your decision was the wise one for the long term success of the project. But it is how you carried out the changes and communication that was the bad thing. At least for me.

And now, with more btc funding requests, this starts smelling as the cousin of a ponzi scheme.
Shareholders need to suggest and promote the new ipo or they will not be able to sell their expensive shares or re-start getting their dividends.

I don't see how this could possibly go wrong.

Just because a large investor decides to exit their position shouldn't really say much. You say 'we should stay' that doesn't make much sense. You stay if you think it's a good investment opportunity, otherwise you leave. You don't have to buy in then exit just because someone holding a bigger position does the same.

 for all you know these shares were always owned by cryptx and just withdrawn from the market, then sold prior to announcement of the increased hashrate for max profit. I think everyone was waiting for cryptx to sell some, obviously you would expect them to boost the share price in advance because it's in their best interest, even a scammer without care for future of the project would do the same. this is why it made sense to get in because you can rest assured they will pump it... (why sell for 0.07 when you can get 0.09) so they set a floor with the announcement. I can't imagine with havelocks depth and their own scryptx offering diluting things that trying to dump 30k shares on market will work out well though, but who knows, might be surprised.

For new or old investors; 1.5PH is 3x the amount hashing right now and still more than 2x the amount projected before. to which everyone rejoiced at not long ago.. , Bitfury and peta has set a precedent in the past for timely delivery/installation. Remember that the hardware is existing, in stock. Not a preorder nonsense.

Shareprice before floating around 0.075, rising above 0.1 well before 500th is online.. who other than a very nervous individual who's been burned in the past would decide that 0.0855 is good price to cash out for right now?

I believe the large seller did it to buy into Scrypt-X, couldn't find the post, but I think I've read it somewhere in this topic or in Scrypt-X's topic.

[kenmomotaro]

I think there is a lot of confusion going on about the latest developments. Let me try to elaborate on this.

First we want to clear some misunderstandings:

“You bought 14,500 units and now you sell them at a higher price in the IPO to make a profit for yourself”.

The money that is raised at the IPO will go to the purchase of 1000 TH/s of mining equipment, which costs about 3,760 BTC. Financial breakdown to deploy 1PH/s:

• Cost: 3,760 BTC
• Income:

                * 33,794 shares at IPO: 3,313 BTC
                * Current reinvestment funds: 150 BTC
                * Mining revenue (16-31 May): 300 BTC

“do you think you could tell us what that 1000BTC will be spent on cryptx? Shares or what?”

We will pre-finance the 1000 BTC to be able to purchase up to 1000 TH/s after the IPO. This means it is a loan from us to the PetaMine. The more shares are sold in the IPO, the less has to be pre-financed and paid back in dividends.

“Why are dividends withheld for a few weeks?”

This is a joint effort of current investors, new investors and CryptX. Investing in new hardware now will have a much better impact in the long run on both unit value and dividends.

“But they are misleading people so they can maximize their own profits. The first few months will be the most profitable, but instead of pumping out dividends then are going to use it to reinvest so they can have more machines, which makes them more money. “

We can tell all of you that we have already invested over 1,000,000$ of our own private money into this project. This money has been spent on:

•   Datacenter: Electric installation, cooling, infrastructure, alarms, network, etc
•   Shipping costs: We have paid all the express shipping from US (Cointerra), from Switzerland (Bitmine), from China (Dragon miners, custom miners).
•   PSU: we have bought about 200 psu’s so the Coincraft desk could be delivered faster.
•   Custom miners: Apart from the chips, we have paid the full production of 250 miners.
•   Custom designs
•   Labor costs
•   Etc

We have a margin on hosting costs, so it is in our interest that PetaMine grows. We have cut hosting from 0.45$/kwh to 0.25$/kwh because we believe in the project for the long term and want it to have every chance to succeed.

Old situation:

We were hashing at about 500 TH/s with 80,760 units. What would have happened if we did not make some drastic changes? 

First we would pay the last part of the Bitmine contract and we would be in the same situation like before. We would have to wait on the RIG’s to be delivered. In best case, all RIG’s would be deployed in a couple of weeks and we would hash at 700 TH/s with 80,760 units outstanding. This would have meant 8.67 GH/share.

Second every week the dividend payments would have gone down and the hosting fees would have gone up.

The overall result would have been that the PetaMine would produce less and less dividend until costs became higher than revenue. The consequences would have been a dropping unit price and a dropping dividend.

New situation:

We have cut the hosting fee from 0.45$/kwh to 0.25$/kwh. In other words we gave up a large portion of our income to the PetaMine project.  We could have left it at 0.45$ and receive a lot more hosting for the coming months. Instead we want the project to thrive and become one of the larger players in the Bitcoin mining place.
We bought back about 14,500 shares with the money we otherwise had to spend on Bitmine for our second part of the contract. We did this because we are convinced that we could use these shares to take the PetaMine to another level.

What will be the overall result?

Plain and simple, if the IPO is successful PetaMine will be much larger and the unit holders will be owner of 15 GH/s per share instead of 8.68 GH/s per share. On top of this the costs of the mine are almost halved.
We are convinced that we all have to look at this project with our long term glasses on. Big dividends in the short run will result in a dead project in the long run. PetaMine cannot simultaneously grow exponentially and pay large dividends at the same time. We want to become and stay one of the large players in Bitcoin mining.

Let's make this simple.
We are now 0.6% of total network hashrate.
If this ipo goes the worst scenario, not a single share be sold.
Then we will have to halt all dividends until July.

Let's assume that difficulty rises 15% each stage.
By the time of July, total network hashrate would be around 135PH/s.
And with our 1.5PH/s , we own over 1% of total network hashrate, which is better than now.
That's why I didn't sell my shares.

If we can buy those Bitfury machines in small amount as reinvestment part now, and stop the new ipo would be even better.

[xe99]

My post further up covered this a bit. The chart you are looking at has a category named Dividends to be paid after IPO or something along those lines. What that number is is the total amount of dividends CryptX will not payout to shareholders and instead use them to pay back the company he bought the hashing power from. It also doesn't show what happens if 0 shares are sold and that is 1957 BTC worth of dividends to be withheld.  So when will the dividends start being paid back to investors? After CryptX pays off all his debts is the answer. We can do a quick estimation that is extremely optimistic at the time frame of when you will start to see a single Satoshi paid out to investors right now.

200 BTC was mined last week so tripple hash rate means triple the coins to 600 BTC expected to be mined. 25% is still gone to hosting fees so that leaves 450 BTC left to be paid out as dividends and reinvestment. But what CryptX did was force all shareholders to give up dividends to pay back the company so it's now 100% reinvestment.

Best case scenario and what you should all hope happens: All 33k shares are sold in this IPO and dividends start to be paid out next month.

Worst case scenario no IPO shares are sold and shareholders are stuck with the bill and must pay 1957 BTC. 1957 / 450 = 4.34 and that number is the amount of weeks until the hardware is paid off from shareholders. It will take just over 4 weeks, but remember this is an optimistic calculation as it doesn't take into account the difficulty increase that will happen. That is 4-5 weeks AFTER IPO ends for a total of 6-7 weeks.

If 1 batch of 10,000 is sold only 1007 BTC need to be repaid and that will end up taking 1007/450 = 2.23 weeks of no dividend payments to pay back the company. But again overly optimistic because it doesn't take into account difficulty rise so in this case it will take 4-5 weeks total to start seeing dividend payments again.

You can see that if all the shares are not sold how bad this will be for shareholders and how outraged you should be about CryptX forcing the bill onto holders via holding dividend payments. But he still gets his 25% hosting fee for his pocket. Start asking questions as to why shareholders have to foot the bill and not just use the 35% reinvestment like how the prospectus says. Ask why there was no shareholder vote on the change in direction of the mine when the prospectus says shareholders have voting rights and a few paragraphs away says that shareholders should vote if they want the dividend/reinvestment %'s changed. I am no longer a shareholder because if I still held any shares in this mine I wouldn't see a penny in dividends until at least a month - month and a half out from now. Shareholders have voting rights, it explicitly says it in the prospectus so use your voting rights to keep the mine how it was and only allow CryptX to use 35% reinvestment to pay back the company, not your dividends.

Thank you MrSike. That explanation was very helpful.

[cryptx]

Let's make this simple.
We are now 0.6% of total network hashrate.
If this ipo goes the worst scenario, not a single share be sold.
Then we will have to halt all dividends until July.

Let's assume that difficulty rises 15% each stage.
By the time of July, total network hashrate would be around 135PH/s.
And with our 1.5PH/s , we own over 1% of total network hashrate, which is better than now.
That's why I didn't sell my shares.

If we can buy those Bitfury machines in small amount as reinvestment part now, and stop the new ipo would be even better.

You are totally correct.

Only the last sentence does not add up. At 500 TH/s we cannot mine the 3,650 BTC needed from now until July for the 1,000TH/s extra hardware. This were the IPO comes in.

[xe99]

how do you guarantee any of this? you claim 25,000 bitcoin will be mined in a year but even a modest increase in difficulty to 15,000,000,000 which seems very likely in next couple months, you will be lucky to pull 18,000 BTC. what am i missing?

are investors guaranteed 15/GH dividends no matter what happens by a certain date? I'd like to invest a little bitcoin but so far some things not adding up for me.

thanks for any help answering these questions.

25,000+ btc will be mined assuming either entire global hashrate remains static, which obviously it won't OR the 2% figure (representing PETA's portion of entire hashrate) used in that calculation will grow proportionally to the rate of growth the rest of the market. This is the reason for 65% rather than 100% towards dividends, which would be a losing proposition over time.

For example the mine initially started with 1G per share. Hardware was sold to expand the farm and instead of quickly paying off investors a lump sum from that sale, a decision was made to withhold those dividends to increase the capacity, therefore GH/s each share is entitled to a higher amount. at 80k shares with current deployment that increased 600%, combatting the difficulty increases.

You can see from dividend history the upwards trend.

2014-05-16   2014-05-16   0.00150424
2014-05-09   2014-05-09   0.00109209
2014-05-02   2014-05-02   0.00105737
2014-04-25   2014-04-25   0.00075670
2014-04-18   2014-04-18   0.00068164
2014-04-11   2014-04-11   0.00057136
2014-04-04   2014-04-04   0.00060188
2014-03-28   2014-03-28   0.00061162
2014-03-21   2014-03-21   0.00063172
2014-03-14   2014-03-14   0.00050213
2014-03-07   2014-03-07   0.00042365
2014-02-28   2014-02-28   0.00040211

Here we come to the second situation where a temporary sacrifice is made to ensure the long-term success of the mine.

much thanks. its starting to sink in s l o w l y...

[cryptx]

Everybody,

We are going to delete all posts of 2 people: mikemikemike and Effect. We have been receiving messages from them with bribe suggestions and threads. This is something that cannot be tolerated. Here are some quotes from their PM’s:

From Effect
“I know mikemikemike in real life. Infact were in the same hotel as I speak. If you want him to stop and delete his posts just pay him off and you can continue running your sham.”
“I really would like to enjoy my holiday, so just speak to him. He's a very determined person, he won't let this go until he has a reason to let it go.”
“I'm just trying to give both of you a way out, it's the only thing I can think of. And it's not the first time he's been paid to keep quiet. He's a very smart guy, but money controls him.”
“But How ever much he says he's not pissed off, he is, you guys screwed him and other investors by upping the share price of CryptX while SCRYPT was just being born.”

From mikemikemike
“So apart from you guys screwing over most of your more serious investors by artificially bumping up the price to 0.095 while all we deviated our funds to Scrypt. I'm not saying this was intentional, but it did fuck us over. I'm saying you didn't think about us. Which is fair enough, this is business, and time is of the essence.”
“If you don't then I'm gonna go fully public with everything I know. It will be said in allllot more detail, spoken in allot better language, and I will give full projections that no offence, make yours look like child's work. I used to do it for a living. When this gets out, and your motives do to, your IPO will never sell, you guys won't make anywhere near as much money, and ill make sure it gets to every article site and forum on the web. I hire people to do that for me.”
“I know this has been a pretty blunt email but I hope you understand where I'm coming from. I've never been that straight edged myself but this is ridiculous.”
“I'm going to get to work on my own projections tonight if I don't hear from you and make them public”

[michaelGedi]

I had my suspicions of a connection between mike and effect. I now believe they are the same person.

One example off the top of my head would be when mike decided to bail from the project, offered up shares, effect apparently bought them


EDIT: please post screenshots cryptx, or some other form of proof. Please also at least make an attempt to refute his claims    ... it looks bad otherwise

EDIT 2: I see mike's full post, but I'm not believing anything until someone shows some proof. That said, there is no "bribe" suggestion, just a request to fix your projections cryptx, which I agree with...

(some deletes)

[babcoccl]

Everybody,

We are going to delete all posts of 2 people: mikemikemike and Effect. We have been receiving messages from them with bribe suggestions and threads. This is something that cannot be tolerated. Here are some quotes from their PM’s:

From Effect
“I know mikemikemike in real life. Infact were in the same hotel as I speak. If you want him to stop and delete his posts just pay him off and you can continue running your sham.”
“I really would like to enjoy my holiday, so just speak to him. He's a very determined person, he won't let this go until he has a reason to let it go.”
“I'm just trying to give both of you a way out, it's the only thing I can think of. And it's not the first time he's been paid to keep quiet. He's a very smart guy, but money controls him.”
“But How ever much he says he's not pissed off, he is, you guys screwed him and other investors by upping the share price of CryptX while SCRYPT was just being born.”

From mikemikemike
“So apart from you guys screwing over most of your more serious investors by artificially bumping up the price to 0.095 while all we deviated our funds to Scrypt. I'm not saying this was intentional, but it did fuck us over. I'm saying you didn't think about us. Which is fair enough, this is business, and time is of the essence.”
“If you don't then I'm gonna go fully public with everything I know. It will be said in allllot more detail, spoken in allot better language, and I will give full projections that no offence, make yours look like child's work. I used to do it for a living. When this gets out, and your motives do to, your IPO will never sell, you guys won't make anywhere near as much money, and ill make sure it gets to every article site and forum on the web. I hire people to do that for me.”
“I know this has been a pretty blunt email but I hope you understand where I'm coming from. I've never been that straight edged myself but this is ridiculous.”
“I'm going to get to work on my own projections tonight if I don't hear from you and make them public”

If only you had done that 3 months ago this thread would be 30 pages shorter  Glad you finally pulled the trigger.

[cryptx]

[spartan82]

Well this turned sour real quick. If cryptx believe they can deliver with this new IPO without the ridiculous delays we had previously then I'm all for it and staying put. We've had delays in the past and bitmine could not deliver what they had promised so I'm very skeptical about this next batch but I for one will stick around to see what will be produced. It's the risk we take. Even though we have had set backs, we have still received some substantial divs and still trading well above original IPO which all early adopters like myself invested into in the first place. Lets see where the road takes us.

[webbrowser]

I've not said much previously, but I've unloaded my shares.

Estimates that dividends could repay cryptx's loan by X date are woefully short, because of the huge reinvestment % . Dividends don't resume when sum(dividend+reinvestment)=loan.  Dividends resume when sum(dividend)=loan.  The reinvestment just goes towards growing PETA's hashrate, which directly contributes to cryptx's bottomline.

So, would the attempts to reinvest help to keep up with the difficulty?  Let's just look at ASICMINER, who will produce 100+ PH and dump them onto the network in the next few months.   Let's say network hash rate doesn't grow exponentially.  But instead of PETA's estimate of 6PH per 10 days, it grows by 10PH per 10 days.  

Make a copy of cryptx's spreadsheet at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjI5bgsiFJAidHgwa0UyTHNEVG1lbDdvN2FMTExvOHc&usp=drive_web#gid=32 and change Col B to add 10PH per interval.  If the first IPO batch sells out, shareholders will only see dividends in Sep.  If the IPO does not sell at all, dividends will be seen in Dec.  All while the mine is steadily growing in hashrate, but absolutely not keeping up with the network.

I've asked various questions of cryptx before, and they were never answered.  My conclusion is that he is not making decisions in the interests of shareholders.

[Anotheranonlol]

I think your right.

Mike, is that you? 

[pleiotropik]

Ok... finished reading all... i'm out for the time being. the place is too stormy and this dividend stop was unconscionable. i don't like what mikemike was trying to pull off but i also don't like to be in a boat whose captain(s) keep changing the rules in double secret probation (where you don't exactly know why or how or when rules change).

If the weather clears again and dividends are established. i'll jump right back in. Good luck have fun. 

[pleiotropik]

I stand corrected i should have written "i don't like what (according to cryptx) mikemike was trying to pull off".

I beg your forgiveness for my sloppy writing.  That said, i sold all shares. Can never be too cautious in the year of Karpeles and the N&Bees.

[MrSike]

I went ahead and did some estimations based off of an average difficulty rise being around 14-15%, 14 day target difficulty adjustment period, 35% reinvestment, 2 week delivery time of new Bitfury miners from reinvestment funds used every week. This is of course reliant upon if we reinvest 35% into Bitfury BF3500 miners every week and each runs at a consistent 3.5th/s. My other predictions earlier were too optimistic and didn't account for difficulty adjustment or reinvestment which I now added in to the calculation.

Worst case scenario 0 shares sold during IPO over 9 weeks to pay back debt after IPO is finished. 10 week dividend total 61.61714213 BTC
Difficulty   Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856   1500.000   523.192   130.798   392.394   137.338   255.056   1701.944
11606828781   83086.185   1500.000   454.949   113.737   341.212   119.424   221.788   1480.156
11606828781   83086.185   1570.248   476.255   119.064   357.192   125.017   232.175   1247.982
13347853098   95549.112   1631.333   430.246   107.561   322.684   112.939   209.745   1038.237
13347853098   95549.112   1695.279   447.111   111.778   335.333   117.367   217.966   820.271
15350031063   109881.479   1753.047   402.040   100.510   301.530   105.536   195.995   624.276
17652535722   126363.701   1813.080   361.572   90.393   271.179   94.913   176.266   448.009
17652535722   126363.701   1867.061   372.337   93.084   279.253   97.739   181.514   266.495
20300416080   145318.256   1915.609   332.190   83.048   249.143   87.200   161.943   104.552
20300416080   145318.256   1965.602   340.860   85.215   255.645   89.476   166.169   -61.617

Best case scenario 33k shares sold during IPO 0 weeks to pay back debt after IPO is finished. 10 week dividends total 2018.617 ~ .02 BTC per share
Difficulty         Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856           1500.000           523.192          130.798   392.394   137.338          255.056   -255.056
11606828781   83086.185           1500.000           454.949          113.737   341.212   119.424          221.788   -476.844
11606828781   83086.185           1570.248           476.255          119.064   357.192   125.017          232.175   -709.018
13347853098   95549.112           1631.333           430.246          107.561   322.684   112.939          209.745   -918.763
13347853098   95549.112           1695.279           447.111          111.778   335.333   117.367          217.966   -1136.729
15350031063   109881.479           1753.047           402.040          100.510   301.530   105.536          195.995   -1332.724
17652535722   126363.701           1813.080           361.572          90.393   271.179   94.913          176.266   -1508.991
17652535722   126363.701           1867.061           372.337          93.084   279.253   97.739          181.514   -1690.505
20300416080   145318.256           1915.609           332.190           83.048   249.143   87.200          161.943   -1852.448
20300416080   145318.256           1965.602           340.860           85.215   255.645   89.476          166.169   -2018.617

1 batch sold realistic projection 4-5 weeks to pay back debt after IPO finished. 10 week dividend total 1011.617 ~ .013 BTC per share total
Difficulty    Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856   1500.000   523.192   130.798   392.394   137.338   255.056   751.944
11606828781   83086.185   1500.000   454.949   113.737   341.212   119.424   221.788   530.156
11606828781   83086.185   1570.248   476.255   119.064   357.192   125.017   232.175   297.982
13347853098   95549.112   1631.333   430.246   107.561   322.684   112.939   209.745   88.237
13347853098   95549.112   1695.279   447.111   111.778   335.333   117.367   217.966   -129.729
15350031063   109881.479   1753.047   402.040   100.510   301.530   105.536   195.995   -325.724
17652535722   126363.701   1813.080   361.572   90.393   271.179   94.913   176.266   -501.991
17652535722   126363.701   1867.061   372.337   93.084   279.253   97.739   181.514   -683.505
20300416080   145318.256   1915.609   332.190   83.048   249.143   87.200   161.943   -845.448
20300416080   145318.256   1965.602   340.860   85.215   255.645   89.476   166.169   -1011.617

My 1 year estimate on total coins mined is just under 10,000 BTC unless CryptX can get better miners than the Bitfury BF3500 or some that are cheaper btc/ghs. Or if the Bitcoin price jumps up considerably the reinvestment will be able to purchase many more miners. There are way too many variables for an accurate prediction and as the time frame goes on the less accurate predictions are. That's why I capped out my charts at 10 weeks after IPO even though I've made calculations up to a year out for this mine. This mine is entirely dependent on this upcoming IPO and that is too much of a risk factor for me to take, so I'm out. If the best case scenario happens then I missed out on a good thing but the risk is just too high for me since it's entirely dependent on reinvestment every week.

[Anonymousg64]

this indicates that the exponential increase is reducing in magnitude

http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-ever.png


currently difficulty is doubling every ~2 months


3760BTC for 1Ph/s is going to take 66days to pay itself off, but with the pre-existing hardware it will take 44 days


assuming its entirely paid for with the IPO, after may 31st you are going to be seeing:

Info about dividend payout for this week:

596.4 in total from mining and converted NMC's:
- 297.96 as Dividend (0.0029796 BTC / share)
- 160.44 Reinvestment
- 138 Hosting Fee

what is 160.44BTC gona buy in june?
42670Gh/s if Gh/s price and btc value stay the same

how fast can we double our hashrate with reinvestment's?
6 months

I expect we will be able to cut that doubling time to 2month once bitcoin regains value, and further reduce it as hardware increases reaches a choke-point and bitcoin doubling time lowers to 3 months

exponential projections with 3 variable factors($/BTC, $/Gh/s, Diff) is impossible to make with even 10% certainty.

EDIT:

NICE, didn't know reinvestment's will be higher for while
renders everything i wrote completely incorrect, but the point remains, and even better so, that PETA is setup to win

[MrSike]

*snip*

Excellent work. But the reinvestment percentage is 90% going down three - four percent every period. Could you run the numbers using the reinvestment percentage cryptX has said they are going to use?

You can find it here.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjI5bgsiFJAidHgwa0UyTHNEVG1lbDdvN2FMTExvOHc&om=true&richtext=false#gid=32

Once you've put those numbers in you'll know exactly why I've been going batshit crazy.

Okay after adjusting the reinvestment it is a more optimistic outcome and the adjustments in weeks to payback debt, dividends received are adjusted now.

Worst case still 9 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 192.708

Best case still 0 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 2149.708

Realistic projection goes up to 5 weeks but total dividend to shareholders up to 1142.708

This reinvestment plan CryptX has will actually extend the life on the mine and will bring the estimated year prediction up to ~13,000 BTC. About 30% better than my first prediction.

[MrSike]

*snip*

Excellent work. But the reinvestment percentage is 90% going down three - four percent every period. Could you run the numbers using the reinvestment percentage cryptX has said they are going to use?

You can find it here.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjI5bgsiFJAidHgwa0UyTHNEVG1lbDdvN2FMTExvOHc&om=true&richtext=false#gid=32

Once you've put those numbers in you'll know exactly why I've been going batshit crazy.

Okay after adjusting the reinvestment it is a more optimistic outcome and the adjustments in weeks to payback debt, dividends received are adjusted now.

Worst case still 9 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 192.708

Best case still 0 weeks but total dividend to shareholders is up to 2149.708

Realistic projection goes up to 5 weeks but total dividend to shareholders up to 1142.708

This reinvestment plan CryptX has will actually extend the life on the mine and will bring the estimated year prediction up to ~13,000 BTC. About 30% better than my first prediction.

How can the dividend go up in the first ten weeks if the reinvestment percentage is much higher?

No offence but you have done something seriously wrong.

Please post the numbers

The dividend will suffer a loss during the first few weeks after IPO but the additional reinvestment will actually keep up with the difficulty increase longer than the original 35% reinvestment plan. As you can see in the realistic projection it will take an extra week to pay off the debt but the estimated BTC each week is also greater that the mine will yield. Notice how the estimated BTC column stays at a higher yield compared to the first prediction at 35% reinvestment and you will understand how a higher dividend is possible after 10 weeks of operation.  Since CryptX's predictions are based on 10 day periods and mine are on 7 day periods to equal the target blocktime the reinvestment % is down to 2.1% which when averaged out to CryptX's 10 day of 3% less will be almost the same.

Worst case.
Difficulty   Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856   1500.000   523.192   130.798   392.394   353.154   39.239   1917.761
11606828781   83086.185   1500.000   454.949   113.737   341.212   299.925   221.788   1695.973
11606828781   83086.185   1680.637   509.737   127.434   382.302   328.015   248.497   1447.476
13347853098   95549.112   1834.048   483.710   120.927   362.782   303.649   235.808   1211.668
13347853098   95549.112   2001.827   527.959   131.990   395.970   323.111   257.380   954.288
15350031063   109881.479   2157.143   494.715   123.679   371.036   294.974   241.173   713.114
17652535722   126363.701   2322.413   463.146   115.786   347.359   268.856   225.784   487.331
17652535722   126363.701   2473.292   493.235   123.309   369.926   278.554   240.452   246.879
20300416080   145318.256   2610.811   452.747   113.187   339.560   248.558   220.714   26.164
20300416080   145318.256   2753.290   477.455   119.364   358.091   254.603   232.759   -206.595

Best case.
Difficulty   Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856   1500.000   523.192   130.798   392.394   353.154   39.239   -39.239
11606828781   83086.185   1500.000   454.949   113.737   341.212   299.925   221.788   -261.027
11606828781   83086.185   1680.637   509.737   127.434   382.302   328.015   248.497   -509.524
13347853098   95549.112   1834.048   483.710   120.927   362.782   303.649   235.808   -745.332
13347853098   95549.112   2001.827   527.959   131.990   395.970   323.111   257.380   -1002.712
15350031063   109881.479   2157.143   494.715   123.679   371.036   294.974   241.173   -1243.886
17652535722   126363.701   2322.413   463.146   115.786   347.359   268.856   225.784   -1469.669
17652535722   126363.701   2473.292   493.235   123.309   369.926   278.554   240.452   -1710.121
20300416080   145318.256   2610.811   452.747   113.187   339.560   248.558   220.714   -1930.836
20300416080   145318.256   2753.290   477.455   119.364   358.091   254.603   232.759   -2163.595

Realistic case.
Difficulty   Network Hash   Peta hashrate   Estimated BTC   Hosting Fee   Peta BTC   Reinvestment   Dividends   BTC to pay back
10092894592   72248.856   1500.000   523.192   130.798   392.394   353.154   39.239   967.761
11606828781   83086.185   1500.000   454.949   113.737   341.212   299.925   221.788   745.973
11606828781   83086.185   1680.637   509.737   127.434   382.302   328.015   248.497   497.476
13347853098   95549.112   1834.048   483.710   120.927   362.782   303.649   235.808   261.668
13347853098   95549.112   2001.827   527.959   131.990   395.970   323.111   257.380   4.288
15350031063   109881.479   2157.143   494.715   123.679   371.036   294.974   241.173   -236.886
17652535722   126363.701   2322.413   463.146   115.786   347.359   268.856   225.784   -462.669
17652535722   126363.701   2473.292   493.235   123.309   369.926   278.554   240.452   -703.121
20300416080   145318.256   2610.811   452.747   113.187   339.560   248.558   220.714   -923.836
20300416080   145318.256   2753.290   477.455   119.364   358.091   254.603   232.759   -1156.595