Torus, is there an equation form of this somewhere? I can visualize these things better like that.

Thansk I'm going to look into CT Pro now.




Glad to see someone who knows their stats 101.

I can't remember what machine I snagged this graph from (genisis block) because I'm working on like 10 charts at once right now, but this is exactly what he's talking about above.

Although I have to say that buying and holding 10btc for 10k doesn't sound like a well diversified risk. Maybe when they were less than $400, and even then it was scary.

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This is true. But odolvlobo fails to include the future-value of the btc and the future-value of the GHS in his calcs. That's the only thing that makes cex.io profitable, if only mildly - hedging on the increase. Which means, in THIS CLOUD situation, I would recommend buying and holding over mining. (Something I RARELY recommend)

2 questions:

1. Is this the only profitable machines you can get right now?

2. When is the next shipment available?

Right, which as he was saying, someone needed to sell 5300btc or 5MM$ to drop it 100 bucks.

Now, the thing that bugs me...

you all know about Market Makers in stocks? 5 Million bucks isn't a lot of money. If all you need is 5 million bucks to shift BTC 100 bucks that's scary as hell.

Now bear with me...

Didn't DPC (dread pirate roberts, founder of silk road, for those who are unfamiliar) get 26 THOUSAND BTC seized by the us govt?

Regardless of if they're using it or not, that means roughly $25 million dollars of BTC is sitting somewhere, in one place.

I'm SURE there is someone else with 15MM sitting around who can shake up the market by a few hundred bucks a day just by buying and selling a lot.

lastly, does anyone know how transparant the markets are? Can people see every buy and sell on every market from every exchange? Can we see if these large orders are going through like LEVEL 2 in stocks or are we just going blind? Or is it just mass hysteria that is causing the market to shift by 30% a f*cking day?

They buy unprofitable miners because they suck at using the calculators and bias them towards profitability on accident.
I have a 5x9 whiteboard full of economic equilibriums (based on excel, I just like to visualize my data by hand too) that tell me exactly what is profitable and what isn't based on every factor I can think of.
Mining is profitable in only a select few scenarios today, and profitable in the future only if estimated conditions based on no less than three different variables are met. It's a gamble, but I could put my money in stocks at 12% return all day long. (Most years I average 23-24%)
Very few calculated risk investments can offer 100 - 400% returns in time periods of months.

Equipment not only holds value, it shifts with the price of BTC. As BTC goes up, worthless equipment becomes more... haha, worthless technically. But by that, I really mean the price increases and you can sell it for plenty.

This mining calculator does a really good job of estimating the worthlessness of machines actually. http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php

True. But then there is a day like today where BTC drops 30%! Glad I physically couldn't get my money in early this week. Hopefully by next week my LTC miners should be here if people don't stop buying the damn video cards

Can you give me the skinny on what parts people on this forum thing ar inaccurate about it?
I don't see a single value that can't be modified on that calc

If I'm honest, all three of these are off.
None of them have the real current value. Etc etc
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I'm confused here.
genisis shows that if you purchased a saturn for 7k right now, it would ROI in a month. Is this just because the value of BTC was so much lower when this thread was posted?

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That potential crash scares the shit out of me. I'd like to buy, but I feel the safer bet is to have money in hardware. I'll probably diversify and do a little of both.

And that will happen? I have this feeling it won't, which would make mining them more profitable

This is a good question for me too. If I plan on dealing in LTC to start, should I buy directly LTC? Are there less hurdles to jump through? And from which exchange?

you get number 1xx after they rig up the first 1000 in their farm

Guys, the black arrow prospero x-1 doesn't ship until 2/24/14. So you can expect to MAYBE start mining in march when the difficulty will be around 5BB give or take a few hundred million.

They are at best a break-even or slightly profitable buy. By the end of Q3 '14 the difficulty will outweigh the electrical cost.

You can only say this for fact in hindsight. at 1000/btc it's hard to imagine it doubling by March.

I think it's more about the tangible assets that you can liquidate if the price falls.

If you buy a 12k miner today and the price falls by half tomorrow, you can sill sell that 12k miner for almost as much as you paid for it as long as you are reasonably quick about it before the machine values start to fall too. (Their value lags behind btc by 4-8 weeks)

If you buy 12k worth of btc and it falls to half tomorrow then you just lost 6k flat out.

I'm currently looking at scrypt mining ltc and converting to btc. Buying preconfigured miners isn't all that profitable, but if you configure one yourself then the barrier to entry is slightly higher and the cost slightly lower. It works out to be a small profit.




That is IF you can get a cube right this second.

How long before those cubes ship?

Neptune is only profitable if it ships in Q1, anyone who gets one in Q2 will be SOL and barely be able to make their investment back. Anyone who starts the Neptune in April will start making negative BTC by the end of July. They will have made $8000 worth of btc minus $13.5k of initial investment, so Negative 5500ish. Once they sell their Equipment, they might be able to come out even or probably a little ahead.

The ONLY offset to this is if the difficulty doesn't grow as fast (unlikely) or the value grows by 50% per month in the next 6 months. (Highly, speculative, insanely actually.)

I don't know about the other two, but the knc neptune is a bust unless it gets here in january or february. If they could say "Guaranteed Q1" I'd be on board.

OP these are your basic factors ranked in order of how they affect bottom line:

• Initial investment in equipment cost
  Day you can start mining
  DIFFICULTY on that day
  Estimated difficulty increase based on historical data http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/
  Electricity cost (which is negligible in most cases for BTC but absolutely necessary for scrypt)

As the value of BTC goes up the cost of currently available equipment goes up.

In your scenario, you could spend 13k on a 312ghs miner starting TODAY. And make your cost back by the end of January.
Then you could sell your 13k miner for roughly what you have in it (unless btc tanks) and have 24k total profit.

To get the same with investing, you'd have to buy ~13 btc today and hope they double to $2000 USD by the end of Jan.
(This investing in BTC thing was great when you could get 60 for 13k, but it's not as glamorous when you can only get 13btc.

The PROBLEM happens when you spend 13k to get a 312ghs miner in Late January or early Feb.

Starting January, you'd only make half your investment back.
Starting february, you'd only make $3k of your original 13k back!
Of course, once you sell the equipment, you can break even or come out a couple of BTC ahead. But this particular scenario you posit is a bad one.

With an 1800w miner that cost 13k, you'd need to start off mining at 550GHS in January, or 1100ghs in February to even BREAK EVEN in 2014.


One thing to note that's not on this list is the value of the BTC. I like to estimate their increase in my calculations. Other's aboslutely do not do that because it's so speculative. For you I have left that part out.

Is the conversion rate of mining LTC and converting higher than the speculative price of BTC right now?

Do you convert LTC directly into BTC or hold and wait for LTC to do it's elastic value adjustment to maintain speed with BTC and THEN convert? (Seems like the second option there)





What's the hands-down best LTC ROI calc right now? It looks like I could build about 4500 KHS for a $4k investment

according to http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ SOME of the current asics are still profitable. They would have been insanely profitable if you bought them before the giant jump in price.

But the ebay prices (the only place I know of to reliably get an asics miner overnighted TODAY) are reflecting the BTC increase, so most will only profit for 60 days or less before going red.



That said...

A preorder is scary business!
Which company has the soonest ship date from TODAY with the highest overclockable system?

It should be pretty easy to weed out any that are going to be instantly DOA - eg knc jupiter, 13k, shipping as late as Q2!! Anyone who gets one past  March (end of Q1 beg of Q2) is SOL. That's a crap risk

This was useful. Thanks!

The amount of off the cuff speculation in these threads scares me.