I really don't understand why we have several threads comparing the 2017/2018 bullish/bearish market to today's 2020/2021. Are there really similarities or some coincidence? People just get fearful after a deep correction. The downtrend has been such a stark contrast to the exuberance of December and early January, so people are questioning the strength of the larger bull trend and are wondering if the top is in. The same thing happened all through 2017. Many people thought the top was in after the market dumped off $3K and again off $5K. As it turned out, those were just mid-term corrections and price went parabolic again afterwards. The same will happen again this time, I believe. |
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I am of the belief that bitcoin should be in a price correction next 6-12 months. The main reason is again (like 2017) that the market has had extremely high demand over a short period of time. The comparison to 2017 implies the bull run is over already. Why do you think so? There is some fractal resemblance to the 2018 bubble pop, but my experience tells me not to read into it too much. Peter Brandt pointed out the same fractal similarity, but like me, he doesn't think it's predictive of a crash like 2017. He still expects parabolic upside from here: https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1356037338057601025 |
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I noticed some replies pointing to that comparison. I'm not sure short selling and consignment operations (or whatever you would call it) are an appropriate comparison. Short selling is speculation, whereas Tesla has an ongoing business operation with real cash flows.
I disagree with him fundamentally though. Stock owners should be able to do whatever they want with their shares, including lending them to short sellers.
I completely agree with you, but with a small (but critical) caveat - any transactions must be made with 100% reserve of funds, i.e. every shorter must have the full share when he sells it. But in fact, we are constantly dealing with fractional reserve operations, for me this is something very close to a scam. I tried to word it so I wouldn't be justifying naked short selling. I agree that naked shorting is unethical and shouldn't be done. As a matter of fact, the SEC made it outright illegal in 2008. |
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The bio change is more relavent because it was minutes apart when the pump happened. This is basically equilvant to the Xi pump back in 2019 however I don't like how the entire pump pretty much retraced. This points to signs of a weak bull market.
This is similar to what happened in Oct 2019 with the Xi pump, it was the largest candle in BTC history however price eventually engulfed the entire move and went lower. And we were trading sideways more months and that $10K resistance was tested twice before it finally broke.
So hopefully we start to go back up from $33.4K area or we will most likely go back down to $30K and this time it will break and we will be in the mid $20k's. I am getting a little bearish at this price action.
Like you, am expecting some blood some time soon. The sub 30k tests we've had already have really been weak ass. I'm also leaning bearish myself. Full retrace from $38K and failure to retake the technically significant $35K level....those are typical bearish signs. To boot, we never saw a high volume capitulation in the $20Ks. Like you said, just weak ass tests. The market may need to truly flush out top longs and weak hands before the bull market can continue. There just isn't excess demand at these price levels, not right now. |
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It's not entirely true: if someone pays me to sell my house/car/jet, and promises to give it back next month, we can work something out if the money is good. I'm pretty sure most new car sellers don't even own the cars they're selling: they can only afford to pay the manufacturer after they've sold the car. The entire fiat economy runs on debt. I noticed some replies pointing to that comparison. I'm not sure short selling and consignment operations (or whatever you would call it) are an appropriate comparison. Short selling is speculation, whereas Tesla has an ongoing business operation with real cash flows. I disagree with him fundamentally though. Stock owners should be able to do whatever they want with their shares, including lending them to short sellers. |
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We're an hour away from the monthly candle close. Not quite a shooting star, but the closer price dips towards $32K, the more it looks like one:  Extremely high dollar volume too. Maybe this consolidation will drag out a while longer? |
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Elon could only pump 17%. I expected way more tbh.
LOL. Elon was only good for a 3 hour short squeeze. How disappointing!  Actually, on second thought, that gives me some faith in Bitcoin markets.Maybe a little short squeeze was all he was after. He does seem to really hate the idea of short selling. This is him 12 hours before he added BTC to his profile: u can’t sell houses u don’t own
u can’t sell cars u don’t own
but
u *can* sell stock u don’t own!?
this is bs – shorting is a scam
legal only for vestigial reasons https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1354890601649610753 |
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 Bitcoin will have the most important monthly candle closing tomorrow. See the big wick in 2017 last green candle and it was end of bull season. Use logarithmic scale, not linear. This monthly wick isn't actually that big. The closest comparison I can find is November 2015. After that monthly candle, the market went sideways for a few months before busting out to the upside again. I suppose that's possible here too.  |
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Sold off from that peak, quite strange for it to reverse not sure why completely but it could settle and rise from here. Not that strange. "Too far, too fast." The $34-35K zone has been a very important S/R area. There was lots of latent supply waiting to sell at/above that resistance, it just wasn't necessarily on the order book. After that short squeeze occurred, that latent supply started hitting exchanges and order books, forcing price back down. |
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^ Yo... I guess we’re going to the moon after all. That shooting star on the monthly got fixed over night. Rofl. I never expected it with only a couple of days left for the month. Trolled again. That's a high volume gravestone-ish doji:  Some insane market buyers tried to force a breakout but it didn't take. The gains were fully retraced. Until I see some obvious signs otherwise, I'm with xxxx123abcxxxx on this one: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5300627.msg56218703#msg56218703 |
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I was watching it thinking, "yep, this looks real sustainable." Nice pump, but trying to force a breakout with market buys like that usually ends in tears. Not surprised at the full retrace. There was lots of latent supply that wanted to sell at those prices; the orders just weren't on the book when the market buys occurred.
Lots of sell volume in that daily candle. And the move from the lows didn't look impulsive. I think this might troll around a while longer, and we might still get a real capitulation into the $20,000s eventually.
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An alternative simple structure which has potential...  Interesting. We've just seen the push to $34K, but will it reverse here as expected? The internals of this intraday rally do not appear impulsive, but the momentum is quite strong. Bullish engulfing candle on the daily.... |
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Iran has come to be allied with and supported by the left wing. While israel is allied with and supported by a diminishing right. This explains why right wing Trump sided with israel. While more left wing Biden and Obama side with iran. I would say Obama/Biden's approach is one of soft power, in contrast to Trump's. I wouldn't say either of them are exactly on Iran's side. The real danger is israel's isolation. They have their backs to the wall. Perhaps not unlike a cornered animal. One that might attack when it has no other options. It's just political posturing. Israel dropping nukes on neighboring countries will bring the entire world down on Israel. They wouldn't dare. There is no historical precedent for a reversion to precious metals based economies that I know of. Maybe that's because fiat money only emerged very recently in history. Prior to that, most money was precious metal-based. I truly hope war can be avoided. And that real war never occurs in anyone's lifetime. But if there was a serious war or natural disaster and you had to stake your wealth and welfare on fiat, precious metals or cryptocurrency. What would your choice be. And why.
They'll both hold their value but crypto has much more upside. |
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I'm not saying my analysis here is 100% accurate or amounts to more than a parody. Available data at this point is too preliminary to draw hard conclusions. But it could be worth thinking about.  If that was the plan, it's not working. Now r/wallstreetsbets is entering the crypto space: they just pumped Dogecoin from $0.007 to $0.04 in 24 hours! https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/01/wallstreetsbets-craze-pushes-dogecoin-up-5x-in-24-hours/These guys are no joke. Pay attention, because now they're playing in our backyard. |
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Strong hands bought that dip:  Rejection at the daily lower BB, and a bullish engulfing of the dump to $29K. Very impressive. The second half of this correction has been quite the troll. I'm hesitant to call it over until the $35K zone is taken with authority, but it's beginning to look bullish again. Bears have a limited window of opportunity to turn things around. |
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Is it possible that someone just traded a very small amount with the wrong price?
E.g. Buying 10 TUSD for $15
It will still show as a spike in the candle chart, regardless of volume.
Am I correct?
Nope. If you look at the order book, an order like that wouldn't move the price even $0.0001. On that one hourly candle that spiked to $1.0333 in the OP's screenshot, there was $1.73 million traded. That's what caused the spike. Somebody holding a lot of DAI wanted out of the market fast. |
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But did you see how quickly we rallied away from $30K. If you were watching the markets and looked at Coinbase, it was leading price by $200-$400 during certain points. Basically right before we dipped to $30K and rallied away from again. So I am thinking some other fund has invested in BTC below $30K. Even so, it wasn't much of a rally. The market dipped back below $31K already. I have no doubt there are still institutional inflows coming in, but the combination of those inflows slowing and retail/momentum traders unwinding long positions is likely still pressuring prices down. I'm definitely not convinced the January 22nd low in the $28Ks was the bottom. There could still be a capitulation coming. |
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Instead, I would like to use crypto coins (not stablecoins) and earn interest on them, without having to worry about any fiat currency they may be pegged to. I am not really searching for a big growth in the currency itself (a new Bitcoin not really what I am looking for now), but instead something of relatively low volatility, to earn interest and on which I can rely that it's not going to underperform fiat currency as exchange.
However, looking at the crypto market I have not really been able to find a coin like that. Have you got any ideas/suggestions?
You mainly have 2 options, lending or staking. This is a good site for tracking the interest rates you can earn by lending: https://defirate.com/lend/Keep in mind the risks. Defi platforms are new and relatively untested, so there could be potential unforeseen losses from bugs, network congestion, liquidation problems, etc. Centralized platforms carry the obvious caveat, "not your keys, not your coins." Staking refers to proof-of-stake altcoins. You can currently net over 9% APR by staking ETH: https://launchpad.ethereum.org/ |
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I have been contacted by a few people claiming to be lawyers in the case of Bitcoinica. They tell me to give them information and proof of claim but these are just random people on the Internet asking for information.
Has anyone else had any contact? I lost some BTC on that exchange way back in the day.
Was it PKF Corporate Recovery & Insolvency in New Zealand who contacted you? If so, it may be legit. I stumbled across this case recently when looking into outstanding Mt. Gox claims. The stolen Bitcoinica funds were found in an Mt. Gox wallet before Gox went down. PKF has supposedly been trying to recover those funds on behalf of customers through an Mt. Gox claim. Their website lists this under "recent notable appointments": Bitcoinica LP: The first Limited Partnership to be put into liquidation by the High Court. http://www.pkfcr.co.nz/services/I would contact them directly. Maybe they are contacting claimants in relation to the recent Fortress offer? |
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