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Yes I used a slightly different timeframe.
Starting 31/7/2010 Mt Gox.
From 02/01/2012 Bitstamp. For any missing days I used previous available price.
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Update 27 Oct: Being a fan of Johnsons approach I made a google docs spreadsheet based on this thread. Thought I would share it. I will try and improve the spreadsheet in the future to make it more interactive and show more data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1wfAzREX-FnwSrGDKfKNwndX2uc54q27mbhFp0gyQRcw/edit?usp=sharing Exponential graph with line of best fist (blue). Red is a lower slope line based on possibility that exponential growth will be lower as we go forward in time.  Volatility will likely go down in future, plus being conservative let’s choose a BETI of 1 for top of cycle (all time high BETI is 1.8 ). Let’s assume the next bubble is in 90 days. This would gives us cyclic price high of: $20 468 based on line of best fit. $14576 for conservative slope line. If in 150 days we reach lowest BETI point with BETI of -1.7 (assuming lower volatility). That gives us cyclic price low of : $1672 for line of best fit. $1152 for conservative line. If the downturn is slower and we reach BETI low of -1.7 in 300 days. The price will be: $2727 based on line of best fit. $1727 based on conservative line. And if we reach BETI of 1.46 (slightly below last BETI high) in 120 days. The price would be: $35754 for line of best fit. $25039 for conservative line. |
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I tried using the [addwitnessaddress address] in bitcoin core and go an error code 4 (segwit not activated on the network yet). Is there a reason for this does anyone know? The only thing I can think of is that my bitcoin core version is not fully synced yet with the network/blockchain and that might be causing the problem but other than that...
I would think that it is that. If its not synced it does not know segwit is activated yet. |
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Its not because of segwit. Segwit transactions are barely 1% of all transactions. Segwit has made no significant impact on transaction capacity so far.
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If using bitcoind (command line) on bitcoin core, how do I:
1) create a segwit address
2) will 'bitcoin-cli getnewaddress' give me a segwit or non segwit address.
3) what exactly is the difference between a segwit and non-segwit address,
4) if I use bitcoin-cli sendfrom ...' will the change address generated be a segwit or non segwit address?
Also what about the next version of Bitcoin core, how do I:
5) create a segwit address
6) will 'bitcoin-cli getnewaddress' give me a segwit or non segwit address.
7) if I use bitcoin-cli sendfrom ...' will the change address generated be a segwit or non segwit address?
8 ) When will this segwit capable version of bitcoin core be out?
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So will there be two coins immediately on 12:20 UTC time on August 1. or is there some sort of lock in period or something of that sort ?
Also how exactly do I use the Bitcoin ABC client to split the coins? I send a transaction with some flag and then another without the flag?
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I dont wanna give his opinion too much weight but he is a significant holder and might also be representative of a very fundamentalist 'immutable bitcoin' position.
Anybody knows what his position on segwit UASF is?
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bitcoin-cli getbalance "*" 6
returned a negative balance. How is this possible? Or am I going crazy or something.
EDIT: Also if there are two conflicting transactions, i.e. One transaction was meant to be replaced by a higher fee transaction, would getbalance double count that?
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Now that Jihan and Bitmain have been outed as exploiting a vulnerability in Bitcoin's PoW and that SegWit would have made it impossible for them to continue exploiting this vulnerability the motivations for blocking SegWit and supporting BU have now become very clear. We're going to see a shift in SegWit support in Bitcoin very soon and LTC is also helping here by activating SegWit first. I can see some more room up for Litecoin until around 0.02 or $25, but this will change as soon as Bitcoin starts to make progress towards activating SegWit as well and people start moving back into BTC. If you think BTC will stay behind and never activate SW or LN you are sorely mistaken. Let's see what happens and see who turns out to be right.
We can't get 95% to activate SegWit on Bitcoin without Bitmain's approval. They have every right to protect their patent's value. Those who think Bitcoiners will rally to fight him are socialists and communists, who deny capitalism, game theory, and economic reality. We can't lower the 95% threshold for Bitcoin, because it will cause too much risk and wild price swings. Also we shouldn't be putting such experimental shit on Bitcoin. Bitcoin is supposed to remain reliable. Sorry Bitcoin will remain unmodified, as Satoshi (aka Nash) intended its equilibrium game theory to be a clusterfuck of politics insuring the immutability of the protocol which is what gives Bitcoin its trust and value. User activated soft fork will be the likely solution |
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your link looks fishy no hostname? whatever They Patented this? so only they can produce chips with this hack-like-optimization? we knew about this for how long? Still nothing from the shills? Come on guys, I want your opinions  BU shill here. this is the free market at work... if you want to mine less effectively go ahead and mine with your CPU. Its ALMOST as if they created a new chip that simply mines bitcoin more effectively and all of you are like WELL THAT'S UNFAIR! 2 issues 1) Its patented, selectively available and was secretly used, in a competitive industry like mining it gives huge advantage and has lead to centralisation of mining and could lead to even more centralisation. Centralisation of mining is not good for Bitcoin you agree? We should act to prevent centralisation of mining right? 2) The miner that has benefited from centralisation is now blocking a hugely beneficial protocol upgrade and capacity increase that is for the benefit of all Bitcoin holders. By blocking this they are improving their own financial position at the expense of holders and centralising bitcoin to their benefit further. |
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Escrow is needed, Get Andreas or a few trusted Bitcoin personalities to hold a key to a multisig address holding the Bitcoin.
e.g.
2 of 3 multisig.
20k Bitcoin in each address, Roger holds one key, Loaded one key , Bitcoin personality hold other key.
do that 6 times with different Bitcoin people holding third key.
Edit: after split Bitcoin could be withdrawn from escrow BTC 1k at a time, to a service like poloniex, split and each person would get their btc or btu coins.
Edit2: Also Roger, just a tip, do not generate your multisig key or signature or anything else using BU, who knows what other type of vulnerabilities will be exploited on it.
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This is small, the biggest bug in BU has still not been fixed and is not even recognised as such.
i.e. Emergent consensus failure bug
The 'emergent consensus' mechanism means miners can increase profit by increasing the blocksize.
The only thing stoping increasing the blocksize is the increasing cost of bigger blocks due to orphan rate.
To optimise for profit miners will have competitive pressure to reduce orphan rate and that is easily done by centralisation of mining.
With centralised mining Bitcoin is led to a permanent failure mode as it devolves into a fully centralised system. Centralised mining and centralised nodes.
This is a massive, massive, catastrophic bug that would slowly kill Bitcoin if the network would run on BU (unlikely). This still has not been fixed by Bitcoin Unlimited.
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All of those things are great...if you're computer savvy, which most people are not and never will be. And to that population, fiat is so much easier to use and so much more available that there's no true need for bitcoin. I do wish you luck in proselytizing, because bitcoin needs pumpers out there. I just think if you're trying to convince Joe Blow on the street that he needs to use this funky internet currency, he'll laugh in your face. Anonymity is big, but a lot of people don't care about that.
Its not necessarily about pumping or proselytizing. Some people are interested in Bitcoin and want me to explain it to them seeing as to them I am a 'Bitcoin expert'. For such situations I want to be prepared by having a good explanation of its advantages. Anyhow I think there were some good suggestions here. I will rewrite my op and post update next week. |
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it looks good to me.
although i would add security to it.
when using any other payment systems online you are risking your information being stolen like your credit card information, and there is always risks of malware, keylogger, and other things that can steel your information and abuse it.
however with bitcoin since you can do everything offline all the said risks reach zero. you can have a air lock system using a Live linux offline for example, and make the transactions (use your sensitive information like private keys) there and then only broadcast the public data (non-sensitive) online.
also there is no charge back. it means the trust is shifted from users trusting the merchant with their personal information into merchants trusting their users not to double spend. also users trusting merchants (based on the merchant history) to send the product.
I agree with you. I did mention security but I think more can be said as I believe ultimately Bitcoins model is less prone to hacking the the current financial system. For example there were the recent hacks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Bangladesh_Bank_heistBitcoin is less prone to these kind of heists since the money is distributed and held by individuals (mostly apart from exchanges). Banks get hacked all the time any one way or other consumers must bear the cost. Not sure how to succinctly phrase that. Ever heard of MtGox, Bitfinex? Or a shit load of other thefts: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=576337.0Yes I know but thefts happen in traditional system also. I feel that fundamentally Bitcoin is more secure against thefts then legacy systems. Not sure how to explain why I have that feeling. Some people might disagree with me. |
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it looks good to me.
although i would add security to it.
when using any other payment systems online you are risking your information being stolen like your credit card information, and there is always risks of malware, keylogger, and other things that can steel your information and abuse it.
however with bitcoin since you can do everything offline all the said risks reach zero. you can have a air lock system using a Live linux offline for example, and make the transactions (use your sensitive information like private keys) there and then only broadcast the public data (non-sensitive) online.
also there is no charge back. it means the trust is shifted from users trusting the merchant with their personal information into merchants trusting their users not to double spend. also users trusting merchants (based on the merchant history) to send the product.
I agree with you. I did mention security but I think more can be said as I believe ultimately Bitcoins model is less prone to hacking the the current financial system. For example there were the recent hacks https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Bangladesh_Bank_heistBitcoin is less prone to these kind of heists since the money is distributed and held by individuals (mostly apart from exchanges). Banks get hacked all the time any one way or other consumers must bear the cost. Not sure how to succinctly phrase that. |
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You also should include the disadvantages, it doesn't seem honest just to show the good stuff, you should give a complete picture.
I agree there are disadvantages and I certainly mention them. For the proposes of this post I just want to focus on advantages. TBH most people are already sceptical so they have plenty of disadvantages in their heads. I want to provide them some real reasons why they might consider Bitcoin interesting. |
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lets address the elephants in the room 1 ) It is not controlled by anyone. Its a decentralised peer-to-peer network.
2 ) Based on open source software.
3 ) This means it can not be manipulated, Bitcoin supply is fixed modelling it after gold.
4 ) Nobody can stop or prevent transactions.
5 ) It has low fees compared to other online payment methods like paypal, credit cards etc.
6 ) It is truly global.
7 ) It is programmable money that allows for smart contracts.
8 ) Anybody including kids from their basement, can create financial applications without permission. This is because its open source technology and the network is not controlled by anybody. Nobody needs to ask permission to use it and nobody can restrict access. If you have access to the internet you can access it.
1 ) although the core fanboy leaders are using a softfork to slide in a change without the network nodes needing to upgrade/vote/consent.. the fanboys have faith that their leaders are doing it with honour. but they forget that even having the ability to slide in changes without consensus, can be used for bad too. thus bitcoin is not indestructible as it relies on the TRUST that a group of devs are going to be honourable. .. now imagine that it was used for bad.. Well thats not true because for the soft fork to work miners have to run their code so ultimately devs have no real power. Furthermore thats only for soft forks and soft forks can only be a subset of what is already allowed my nodes. |
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I often meet newbies and try to explain to them what makes Bitcoin special. I am trying to compile a list of advantages of Bitcoin.
Is there anything anybody feels I should add to the list below?
Also I think its better to keep to concrete, succinct, advantages. Not what might be considered wishy washy hype about how it will 'help bring sub-saharan Africans out of poverty by allowing them to purchase goats with Bitcoin".
Some of the reasons which I currently state:
-It allows you to have full control of your money, nobody can take away your money.
-It is not controlled by anyone. Its a decentralised peer-to-peer network. Based on open source software. This means it can not be manipulated, Bitcoin supply is fixed modelling it after gold. Nobody can stop or prevent transactions.
-It has low fees compared to other online payment methods like paypal, credit cards etc.
-It is truly global.
-It is programmable money that allows for smart contracts.
-Anybody including kids from their basement, can create financial applications without permission. This is because its open source technology and the network is not controlled by anybody. Nobody needs to ask permission to use it and nobody can restrict access. If you have access to the internet you can access it.
-It is pseudo anonymous and with some extra effort it can be very close to anonymous. You need sophisticated state actors using significant resources to de-anonymise if somebody takes extra effort.
-It is less hackable then traditional payment systems because it is a push system. That means you dont provide your 'secret keys' to receiver/merchant when you make a payment, unlike with credit cards.
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Also I want to say I am not necessarily against companies having or even using patents for real innovation (Blockstream is possibly going beyond the call of duty in that regard).
Coinbase did not invent hot wallets however. If they are going attempt to patent things like that and justify to us as defensive then we should expect them to make a similar pledge.
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