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Author Topic: Speculation Rule: buy when others are irrationally pessimistic or too cautious  (Read 36042 times)
trollercoaster
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April 04, 2017, 10:38:26 PM
 #301

Hmm creeping towards 70% they might have to just cry into their pillows and accept defeat?  Cheesy
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April 04, 2017, 10:44:28 PM
 #302

Is ETC committed to remain PoW?

Yep, their cap will be 210-230mil. No POS, since they don't have capable developers to deliver ETH's promise. Therefore, the dapp/smart contract capability is just a gimmick for that project.
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April 05, 2017, 12:05:12 AM
 #303

I believe Jilian Wu is using any diversionary excuse he can to make sure SegWit isn't activated any where, including Litecoin.

In other words, I think he tries to create political division, so that no protocol modifications can happen. He pretends is for things, but this is just diversionary IMO.

He wants to maximize the fees they can gouge from the power brokers of Bitcoin and/or he is a power broker. The link I provided explains the math of the game theory involved that is driving the stalemate.

They seem to have become more aggressive in past day or two on proposals, because they probably want to try to pull support away from Litecoin's attempt to activate SegWit. Erik of ShapeShift may just be a pawn, or he may be aware of and part of the manipulations. I haven't tried to dig on that aspect.

But we'll see how it turns out...

We are at near 70%, it's so close.  A single small time whale could push it to 75%+, then we would see if Jihan and co strike back.

In general I agree with the importance of LTC in your thesis of a blocked BTC, but how does UASF fit in?

What if UASF gets approved and BTC gets segwit? wouldn't that undermine LTC's segwit+LN value proposition?
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April 05, 2017, 01:24:26 AM
 #304

Hmm creeping towards 70% they might have to just cry into their pillows and accept defeat?  Cheesy

Hey how did you snap that image of my gf and me for your avatar? You must be NSA.
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April 05, 2017, 01:29:38 AM
 #305

Is ETC committed to remain PoW?

Yep, their cap will be 210-230mil. No POS, since they don't have capable developers to deliver ETH's promise. Therefore, the dapp/smart contract capability is just a gimmick for that project.

Well if the GPU miners are king makers, maybe they will anoint the coin which doesn't cut them off? Where else they gonna mine? Zcash?

Is Charles Hoskinsen's IOHK working for Barry Silbert on ETC? Charles has capable talent on his team.

Btw, my estimation (after some study) is Casper (ETH's promised PoS) will not be entirely sound. Whether that matters or not to the near-term outcome, I can't entirely ascertain.

Ethereum does have a lot of development. No one has answered me on what development ETC has?
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April 05, 2017, 01:31:47 AM
 #306

What if UASF gets approved and BTC gets segwit? wouldn't that undermine LTC's segwit+LN value proposition?

I will stand by my presumption that Bitcoin was created for a certain purpose and no one will be allowed to turn it into a stupid democracy. Follow the link I already provided. The discussion is getting mighty interesting in the past hour.
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April 05, 2017, 03:39:44 AM
Last edit: April 10, 2017, 09:47:00 AM by iamnotback
 #307

I bet Jihan Wu has commandeered all his applicable resources to mining LTC and dumping it on exchanges to try to defeat the SegWit activation:

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/litecoin/difficulty

The LTC miners I had linked to say that he pulled all the supply of A3s off the market so he could mine with them.

Smart money hopefully continues to eat up all the LTC he dumps and hopefully the supply of A4s available is sufficient to overtake Jihan's A3 manufacturing rate.
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April 05, 2017, 03:59:50 AM
 #308

While the site we were checking before says currently 68.40% for past 24 hours, this other site says 69.20% for past 19 hours (so that means it is still increasing):

https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools#segwit

BTCC will probably make their move as it gets closer to 75%.
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April 05, 2017, 04:20:22 AM
Last edit: April 10, 2017, 09:45:59 AM by iamnotback
 #309

It is interesting to compare March 11 to today:

https://web.archive.org/web/20170405041023/https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

https://web.archive.org/web/20170311190046/https://www.litecoinpool.org/pools

The largest percentage gainer of significance which not signaling SegWit is Antpool which is run by Bitmain, i.e. Jihan Wu. So that is probably clearly Bitmain using their A3s as a weapon instead of selling them into the free market.

LTC1BTC is the other antagonist with significant gains in hashrate.

So those are two main enemies that have to be defeated.

Note Litecoinpool which has nearly doubled their hashrate and they signal SegWit.

The fight is on!
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April 05, 2017, 08:08:24 AM
 #310

More discussion.
thejaytiesto
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April 05, 2017, 12:19:39 PM
 #311

Jihan Wu is a bitch, i want to see segwit get activated just to see him cry.

Btw, why does LTC's segwit need 75% to activate while BTC needs 95%? I mean who and how were such thresholds decided? Are those decided by the creators of the coins and hard coded the same way 21 million coins are set since the beginning? what would it take to change the actual threshold? would changing that threshold make it into an altcoin?
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April 05, 2017, 05:10:30 PM
 #312

Jihan Wu is a bitch, i want to see segwit get activated just to see him cry.

Btw, why does LTC's segwit need 75% to activate while BTC needs 95%? I mean who and how were such thresholds decided? Are those decided by the creators of the coins and hard coded the same way 21 million coins are set since the beginning? what would it take to change the actual threshold? would changing that threshold make it into an altcoin?

I suppose the 75% was chosen because Litecoin can tolerate more risk than Bitcoin. But I don't pretend to know all the politics.

Any way, it crossed 70% now!

About 1951 GH/s, or 70.4% of the network (352 out of the last 500 blocks).

The above is for the blocks in the past 21 hours, so it is slightly forward looking as compared to the 24 hour requirement.

The huge jump in price will be when the Bitcoiners realize that Bitcoin is never going to get scaling, thus they won't be able to transact any more on Bitcoin (will be too expensive) and thus Litecoin will become the transaction coin that everybody is using. This still hasn't sunk into their hard heads yet.
Litekorn-Jesus
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April 05, 2017, 08:18:04 PM
 #313

Don´t sell your LTC below 100$!
york780
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April 05, 2017, 08:22:54 PM
 #314

Don´t sell your LTC below 100$!

Newbies gonna be noob. Some other altcoins have already SegWit. Wake up.
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April 05, 2017, 08:25:56 PM
 #315

Don´t sell your LTC below 100$!

Newbies gonna be noob. Other altcoins have already SegWit. Wake up.

what happened to their price with the Segwit?

also others may have it, but Litecoin would be the "biggest one" and now people know what SegWit is after the hard fork issue, so will be easier to affect the price
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April 05, 2017, 08:28:11 PM
 #316

Don´t sell your LTC below 100$!

Newbies gonna be noob. Other altcoins have already SegWit. Wake up.

what happened to their price with the Segwit?

also others may have it, but Litecoin would be the "biggest one" and now people know what SegWit is after the hard fork issue, so will be easier to affect the price

It would have a positive affect yes, but $100 cmon. Get a grib.
If SegWit wouldnt revive and moon litecoin, nothing will.
Litecoin moons now because of SegWit not because of Litecoin.
Enough said. This wont last.
Enjoy and get out early.
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April 05, 2017, 10:54:44 PM
Last edit: April 05, 2017, 11:49:25 PM by iamnotback
 #317

@miscreanity what I see on those charts is that Bitcoin is making lower highs and lower lows after the $1280 (isn't that a double-top from the peak intraday price in 2013?), which is short-term bearish. And the candlesticks on Litecoin are forming a wedge pattern which about to breakout, either to the upside or downside (but normally such a pattern will continue in the direction it was on, so upside breakout).

Combine that chart understanding with the fundamental understanding of Bitcoin as Nash's ideal money, and that is why I posit that Bitcoin can't move higher until Litecoin catches up.

...

I am hypothesizing that BTC will be range-bound (eyeballing it perhaps $800 - $1150ish), until Litecoin has clearly signaled that it is resuming its relevancy and on the way towards an ATH.


That chart is clearly indicating that Bitcoin can't move higher until Litecoin catches up.

Litecoin's price is undergoing the same technology adoption as Bitcoin and all the rest, it is just that the first hump is very volatile (because silver is more volatile than gold for the reasons I have explained). So this means Litecoin's price is going to $100+:

My prediction that BTC would remain range bound until LTC catches up, is so far proving to be true.

The simple reason for this is that the market is not stupid. The market knows that Bitcoin can't ever get any scaling improvements to its protocol. Bitcoin will forever be relegated to small blocks, because it was intended that Bitcoin be the most reliable (i.e. no experimental shit) settlement layer for the power brokers of finance. As the fee per transaction rises to $10 on Bitcoin over this year (and let's guess $100 per transaction by 2019), then most of us will not transact on Bitcoin any more. We will transact on Litecoin. And Blockstream will transfer its efforts to Litecoin, which will give Litecoin legitimacy.

So Bitcoin can't move higher until it is assured that Litecoin will provide the scaling solutions that our ecosystem needs so that blockchains can begin to invade the mainstream world of payments systems and fractional reserve banking. Upthread I explained why Ripple is dogshit, so I expect once it becomes clear that Litecoin will have Lightning Networks coming, then Ripple will collapse. So the smart money should be moving from Ripple to Litecoin.

Note the current jump to $12 looks like it might be overheated and too fast, so I'd be cautious about buying too much too fast. Average in your buys in case we get a dip, but do get some now (nibble) if you don't have any because price can run higher yet. Yet I remain adamant that Litecoin is easily going to exceed $30 and probably $100 before the end of this year, unless somehow SegWit activation is defeated. At the moment SegWit signaling is at 70.8% for those blocks in the last 21 hours. We are very close.

Some myopic people haven't realized that Litecoin needs scaling because it will be receiving all the excess volume from Bitcoin that can't fit in Bitcoin's small blocks, and because the volume will increase exponentially with Lightning Networks enabling private fractional reserve banking and the banks will evangelize Litecoin ecoins to the masses. Litecoin either grabs this opportunity, else Ethereum will take this role with its coming Raiden clone of Lightning Networks. But Blockstream is not going to let that happen. Bobby Lee of BTCC is the brother of Charlie Lee the creator of Litecoin. BTCC will push SegWit activation over the 75% threshold with its GPU farm that is mining Ethereum, if need be.

Also myopic people don't realize that block size increases can't scale because due to the equation on orphan rate, orphan rates increases exponentially as block size increases. Exponential worsening is the antithesis of scaling for anyone who understands math and computer science. I also explained why Xthin is no solution to this dilemma.

I was checking yesterdays trading  volumes and 22% of all crypto trading  was Bitcoin trading with fiat. 11% was Litecon trading with fiat.
If you take out bitcoin trading with alts, Bitcoin dont look that big anymore. 
and since talk in this thread was what LTC have that most other alts dont have is exactly this build infrastructure.

LTC would gain traction due to the centralists of the DCG
here is a list of those prominent services in DCG portfolio that have alot of sway of the whole crypt-onomy
-blockstream
-btcc(litecoin inventors brother)
-bitpay
-bitpesa
-changtip
-coinbase(litecoin inventor)
-coindesk (puppetmaster of propaganda owned by DCG)
-gyft
-kraken
-purse
-shapeshift
-xapo

plus many more

imagine if all of them (shh they are already becoming) start being LTC friendly. ETH wont stand a chance with being 'merchants accept' available
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April 06, 2017, 12:59:33 AM
 #318

One day it had 100k$ trading volume for 24H, and now it has fucking 21B$ trading volume on btc-e. Talkin about ltc obviously.

Don't enter from here or else you'll get burned. Fontas made a cumback it seems. Don't fall for it.

LTC is a good buy long term for this year but as of now it's bubbled, no way im getting back in under 0.009 hopefully by tomorrow we've corrected around there.

I traded the high 0.0113 and re-entered at 0.01. I am and have been 100% in LTC since $6.50. I invest based on fundamentals and my conviction. I am not really a trader.

I think it may push higher from here, but even if it dips to 0.009, I am happy holding this position, because all BTC holders who want to pay for goods & services have to come to LTC over the next year or so, else they won't be able to afford to transact. Speculation in BTC can of course continue on exchanges at low transaction fees because these aren't blockchain transactions, but if you hold your balances always on exchanges, eventually you will lose your money due to hacks and thefts.

LTC should rise over the next year or so to at least 0.05. It will likely overshoot to something ridiculous such as 0.2, due to way greater fool mass manias and speculation play out.

So 0.01 or 0.009 is splitting hairs. You run the risk of chasing it and never getting on board.

Bitcoin will never get SegWit, Lightning Networks, nor larger blocks. Anyone still talking/writing about that are wasting their breath/fingertips.

Right now we are in the attitude readjustment phase where Bitcoiners slowly pour cold water on their face and wake up to reality.

It even hit 13.5$ on kraken, so it seems the next 2-3 weeks untill segwit's activates the price will further increase. Apparently some people are also selling btc for ltc.

LTC's creator Charlie lee seems to think that the LTC price can increase up to 50$ and he casted a vote https://twitter.com/SatoshiLite/status/849695527268564992
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April 06, 2017, 01:22:29 AM
 #319

Bitcoin will never get SegWit, Lightning Networks, nor larger blocks. Anyone still talking/writing about that are wasting their breath/fingertips.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying, but here I think you are mistaken. Now that Jihan and Bitmain have been outed as exploiting a vulnerability in Bitcoin's PoW and that SegWit would have made it impossible for them to continue exploiting this vulnerability the motivations for blocking SegWit and supporting BU have now become very clear. We're going to see a shift in SegWit support in Bitcoin very soon and LTC is also helping here by activating SegWit first. I can see some more room up for Litecoin until around 0.02 or $25, but this will change as soon as Bitcoin starts to make progress towards activating SegWit as well and people start moving back into BTC. If you think BTC will stay behind and never activate SW or LN you are sorely mistaken. Let's see what happens and see who turns out to be right.

Bitcoin = Gold on steroids
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April 06, 2017, 01:36:34 AM
 #320

And now finally we understand that indeed scaling can only happen on Litecoin:

Re: Well, well, well, now we know what Jihan Wu’s been up to.

Apparently, Jihan Wu has been covertly using some patented exploit called asicboost to gain 20%+ efficiency on his hardware that’s incompatible with SegWit. It all makes sense now. Hope he gets his ass sued off.

Shills care to chime in?

https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2017-April/013996.html

Yup. Now everything is clear and now we know why everyone must buy LTC.

FUD.  Asicboost been known about for a long time and Bitmain holds the patent in China.

https://www.asicboost.com/patent

All ASIC manufacturing will be in China.

Sorry Bitcoin will never get SegWit nor LN, because Bitmain will block it on Bitcoin. And the whales of Bitcoin will always block larger blocks for the reasons I have explained else where.

But Bitmain is unable to block SegWit on Litecoin, even though they tried to.

Now we know why the other ASIC manufacturers are not against SegWit. They don't want to pay patent fees. Perhaps Baron Wu offered some deals to some others to get them to join his efforts.

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