Bitcoin Forum
June 24, 2024, 11:20:54 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 27.0 [Torrent]
 
  Home Help Search Login Register More  
  Show Posts
Pages: [1]
1  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) on: October 25, 2019, 04:35:45 PM
Hi again.

I can't remember how it was called, but, I remember this analysis, that after a clear breakthrough there will be some fluctuations inside a range, and the another breakthrough that would continue the trend of the one before.

I think I see this clearly in the the following bitstamp graph which I marked the previous and the todays break which continues the trend.

https://ibb.co/KscqfdX

Now we should expect ups and downs inside some range, until the next clear break ¿correct? according to my statement before, should be also in the low direction, ¿which technic would you use to analyse the future breakthrough, in order to predict if it is going to be negative as the trends continues, or in the positive and thus breaking the trend?

PS: Which code do I have to add here to get the image to show at the post without the need to clikc in it???!!!

Expecting the decline to conclude at either of the following BITSTAMP support zones...

Code:
@7230: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (avg expected zone)
@5425: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (max expected zone)
@4350: 88.6% Fibonacci retracement from 15-DEC-2018 to 26-JUN-2019 (WARNING: Bull Market Terminated?)

At which point, the following criteria ought to signal a potential end to the decline:

1. A +15% bounce.
2. Positive divergence on a momentum indicator such as the RSI, on daily and 4-hr timeframes.
3. A rising impulsive wave structure consisting of 5 waves.
 




As soon as I saw the jump i thought about this post.

We can say that the decline of the market is really finished as the support zone got up to 8500 (now at 8300) ¿correct?  Or is ir jusr anoghe part of the wave?

If correct,  we should se a movement around a range for some days and then again a possibly up or down according to the last movement, and if the decline is terminated in the up direction.

I love this post is pure gold on knowledge!
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) on: October 23, 2019, 02:10:56 PM
Is it possible the last leg down to $7,800 (ending October 18th) was a truncated/failed wave? I'm beginning to wonder if we've already seen the bottom. Something like this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg52813750#msg52813750
Normally I would favor the beige scenario but this price action is very trolly. Not sure.....
Yes, its possible with the following requirements...

1. An impulsive 5 wave rise from the 18-OCT-2019 low (so far 3 waves).
2. A rise beyond the 11-OCT-2019 high of $8800 approx.

Hi again.

I can't remember how it was called, but, I remember this analysis, that after a clear breakthrough there will be some fluctuations inside a range, and the another breakthrough that would continue the trend of the one before.

I think I see this clearly in the the following bitstamp graph which I marked the previous and the todays break which continues the trend.




Now we should expect ups and downs inside some range, until the next clear break ¿correct? according to my statement before, should be also in the low direction, ¿which technic would you use to analyse the future breakthrough, in order to predict if it is going to be negative as the trends continues, or in the positive and thus breaking the trend?


PS: Which code do I have to add here to get the image to show at the post without the need to clikc in it???!!!
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) on: October 21, 2019, 01:46:41 PM
Be careful here to all new investors.

Especially if you are engulfed in x100 longs.

This market is rigged, please search elsewhere for profit in this space, it is out there but not in top 5 right now or probably ever.

Top 5 is zombie graveyard but status quo has not ruptured yet, only when there is a flip will it be evident, and by then it is too late to recover permanent losses.

Flip event will transfer hundred of billions to solid projects in top 100, and trillions of migrated merchant business with branded cryptos using index platforms that can handle the txs requirements while remaining decentralized.

Most responsible thing for crypto elite to do at this stage is shelf OG BTC but everyone is neck deep from early gains.

Research the state of this soon to be fractured market, do not invest more than you can comfortably afford to lose.

There is no guarantee of reversal from descent into $5000, it could very well go down to low thousands and stagnate there during and after flip. Understand that market cap of top 5 is $200 billion dollars or 90% of total, everything of this will soon be redistributed to next gen projects that contribute to a better world.

A future BTC and top 5 dominance of single digit is possible. The future will be paid for by top 5 and merchant onramping, no one is stupid to enter top 5 with all this information available at this stage of maturity.

Finally let us bury these false ideas once and for all:

1. BTC is not scarce, there are tens of thousands of alts with better tech that can perform exactly like BTC or better, and most of these already went to -99.99% due to lack of support. Saying BTC is scarce is like saying the first copy of windows 95, kazaa 1.0, napster, DC++ or netscape or 56k modem installation cds are scarce and ultra valuable.

2. BTC does not and will not ever compete with decentralized tech that is scalable

3. Real decentralization is only possible through a myriad of merchant and personal cryptos, not monoliths.

4. Super powers control BTC since late 2017, they control CMC, all top exchanges, all leverage and lending firms. An investment in BTC or top 5 is a solid support of perpetual status quo stagnation which humanity already saw 10 years of, a wasted decade technologically.

5. BTC operates on greed, delusion, degenerate gambling, despotism. You get what you pay for, now go x100 long and sellout the future.

6. BTC was established on criminal syndication like the silk road, the only thing that happened is that even bigger criminals now control this market. 2017 ICOs were 99% scams, it is riddled with criminals and most recently white collars and corrupt international agencies.

7. Mining is 100% centrally controlled and a disaster of resource optimization allocation. This is why I bought eth in early 2016, a crypto that would make good use of energy allocation, unfortunately, did not scale.

8. Stop watching youtube pushers of top 5. Whether bearish or bullish, I am here to explain that the concept in itself is fast becoming irrelevant as new projects begin maturing. This is projects that you have never even heard of and will not discover until they are already x100, it is the reality of life as a mainstream investor, always late to wealth. I have been living, sleeping, eating crypto for 10 hours most days for 3 consecutive years with a period of interruption 6 months in 2017 while you were doing normal things like family, work, holiday, weddings, dinners, parties, etc. I am by no means the smartest guy on this board but simply brute forced a level of knowledge that will take other average joes the same amount of time investment to gain (many years).

9. Finally a contrarian view: yes BTC may go to $300 000 but it is a complete dystopian reality if that happens. Atleast until solid alternatives emerge such as AGI backed chains. For analysis of future scenarios there is alot in my recent history here on bitcointalk. It is building on conceptual models of society based on power dynamics throughout history and world mythology combined with silicon valley futurism. This is then extrapolated on blockchain technology and integrated with economic valuations as catalyst of progress because blockchain is like stocks but much more advanced. The state of top 5 has no room in that analytic space, not even close. We need those $200 bn for other things now and you must pay for it by x100 leverage all the way back to $400.


No technical analysis, we could call this Fundamental analysis, if you wanna say something.

This is offtopic of the original idea of the post.

Also, Setting yourself as "the smartest guy in crypto" throws away your whole story, humble (as shown by 123) is the best asset to have.

To finish, you "museum" link sends you to a "crypto coin" so. You are, shouting against BTC (With no technical analysis) but promote in your signature a new blockchain coin?

¿Thanks for the opinion?
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2019 Cryptocurrency (Elliott Wave) on: October 16, 2019, 03:17:19 PM
Im so happy to find the 2019 of this post! I become interested in TA thanks to the original 2018 post, and been reading (those books you recommend me back then) and learning on the subject since then.

THANKS 123 for getting in this again, and for sharing your knowledge.

Now speaking on the subject, yesterday I was thinking in a 8100 support, but today we broke the 8000 barrier (looking at the 3 hours candle at bitfinex)

If I see the week candles, there are 4 touches at the support 7600 zone (correct me If I am wrong) 2 in June and 2 in september, which indicates a weak support resistance, which matches on the bear market and new lows (according to your projections down to 5400)

¿Is my analysis on track?



Happy to read your opinion.

Regards
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) on: December 21, 2018, 01:04:21 PM



Upcoming approx support zones BITFINEX:

    $3270, $2650, $2150, $1650

A break below $1200 would rule out a possibility of a wave-x bull market.
 

Hi 123, nice to talk to you again, I have been following the news in this post and I would like to ask you two or three things.

Regarding the usual Christmas rally, do you think this up price is part of it? It seems despite the time in the graph (which you always say is orientative) it would march with the pike near Jan 2019, but in Dec 2018. Which would then be followed by a new down.

How this analysis have in mind the possibility of the authorization of the first fund based on crypto on february? acording to different analyst this would develop a real base for Bitcoin to rise.

Last but not least, could this be the Bull market before another down? I would like to see an update on this analysis.

As usual a pleasure to talk to you.

Regards,
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) on: February 06, 2018, 08:21:52 PM

Personally recommend the following books in regards to Elliott Wave theory (available until Mar 23 2018)...

1. Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior
    Robert R. Prechter, A.J. Frost
    https://files.fm/u/pnmaksvv (77MB)

2. Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading (Bloomberg Financial)
    Wayne Gorman, Jeffrey Kennedy
    https://files.fm/u/mcg8me4m (33MB)

Start with the second book since it provides a visual introduction to illustrating the use of Fibonacci concepts.


Downloaded both. Thank you!
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) on: February 06, 2018, 06:58:19 PM
Amidst a global stock market flash crash, a spectacular sell-off continues in cryptocurrencies at an acceleration quicker than anticipated!

Rather surprisingly, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the all-time highs, and nearby zones of clustered support levels (derived from wave extension relationships); have all failed to provide any meaningful areas of confluence.

And so therefore, the next natural support zone is at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the all-time highs; i.e. at $4257 (Bitfinex).

In regards to the anatomy of wave formation, a rare Triple Zig-Zag structure may be in progress to conclude the final stages of the first crash wave.

https://i.imgur.com/NzuDwh2.png
https://i.imgur.com/YzLeo24.png
https://i.imgur.com/igYrfW3.png

Despite not being in the crypto Market, after reading several forums and articles I am impressed on your work. It is a pleassure to read you. I must admit I just registered just to comment on this post

I am curious if possible to know which equations do you use to make this graphs. It seems so far that the prediction despite time has been quite accurate or am I missing some part?

The graphs are made using TradingView.com for free. The analysis on the charts; i.e. the Elliott Wave labeling is manually done by myself and doesn't require equations.
The internal structure of the waves can unfold in many possibilities; i.e. the assumed Triple Zig-Zag structure isn't going to plan as expected; however, the overall larger wave structure thus far remains in place.

The graphs are always indicative of wave form and price, not time; the analysis could unfold sooner or later.



Again a pleassure to read you. Thanks for answering me.

I do agree on the overall structure. I have been following the rate at GDAX when it jumps a little comments start appearing saying the bottom has been reached, but when you start zooming out is amazing how it sticks to your first assumption on Jan 16.

As we can see it seems that the time.is shortening or that the reations are faster even when the volume that is being operated is double since yesterday night ( I would assume that the less volume.the most easy to change)

Any papper / article you suggest on the Elliot wave subject?

Regards

Edit: when you talk about the Fibonacci, you refer to the sequence? where this sequence is appied?
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: 2018 Cryptocurrency Crash (Elliott Wave) on: February 06, 2018, 04:27:11 PM
Amidst a global stock market flash crash, a spectacular sell-off continues in cryptocurrencies at an acceleration quicker than anticipated!

Rather surprisingly, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the all-time highs, and nearby zones of clustered support levels (derived from wave extension relationships); have all failed to provide any meaningful areas of confluence.

And so therefore, the next natural support zone is at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level from the all-time highs; i.e. at $4257 (Bitfinex).

In regards to the anatomy of wave formation, a rare Triple Zig-Zag structure may be in progress to conclude the final stages of the first crash wave.





Despite not being in the crypto Market, after reading several forums and articles I am impressed on your work. It is a pleassure to read you. I must admit I just registered just to comment on this post

I am curious if possible to know which equations do you use to make this graphs. It seems so far that the prediction despite time has been quite accurate or am I missing some part?
Pages: [1]
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!