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I don't have access to stats, but it's interesting in these 9 rounds so far, how many times Lambo winner was whale and how many regular user with normal number of tickets.
Here are the stats. | ____________ | __________________________________ | __________________________________ | __________________________________ | | Round | Tickets held by the winner | Total number of tickets | Winning chance | | ____________ | __________________________________ | __________________________________ | __________________________________ | | 1 | 185 | 5,954,090 | 0.0031% | | 2 | 201,566 | 5,580,335 | 3.61% | | 3 | 1,626 | 5,514,525 | 0.029% | | 4 | 882,251 | 2,895,004 | 30.47% | | 5 | 473 | 1,167,477 | 0.041% | | 6 | 4,305 | 1,151,098 | 0.37% | | 7 | 4,870 | 1,637,591 | 0.30% | | 8 | 7,021 | 1,865,694 | 0.38% | | 9 | 266,282 | 1,564,201 | 17.02% | | ____________ | __________________________________ | __________________________________ | __________________________________ |
lambo round 9 stats:  lambo 1 thru 9 winners:  |
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Well, it's no surprise that this user became a winner, as he had 17% of the total number of gold tickets. Honestly, it's crazy that one user had more than 266k tickets because it also means that this user probably wagered about 1331 BTC to get that many tickets, or he just bought them for ~66 BTC. In that case, winning 7.44 BTC in the Lambo lottery is just a consolation prize for that user.
It's another time when Lambo has been won by one of whales of Freebitco.in. It's nothing surprising, considering how big % share from total tickets he had. It's very unlikely that he bought so many tickets or in other words spent 66 BTC to win 7.44 BTC. So yeah, as you counted, he simply wagered crazy amount of BTC and got tickets in this way. I don't have access to stats, but it's interesting in these 9 rounds so far, how many times Lambo winner was whale and how many regular user with normal number of tickets. He or she wagered 553.58634500 bitcoin during contest round 58 (April) and 12.09879000 bitcoin during contest round 59 (May). This accounts for a total of 565.685135 wagered, which corresponds to 113,117 golden tickets. Where the other 153,145 golden tickets came from is a bit of a mystery, as they did not place in the top 10 during any of the other monthly contests. They either bought them, which makes no sense (why would you pay millions of dollars to win $200K?) or won them on the wheel of fortune, which seems highly unlikely (you would need millions of WOF spins to win that many tickets). perhaps, there were some promotions during this period, like 3-4-5 bonanza, that offer 3 golden tickets for every 0.005 btc wagered |
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I think we can get an idea how much the WOF RP bonus cost them by looking at the last week's lottery numbers. If you compare round 332 and 333 you can see that the total number of tickets for round 333 went up significantly. It's reasonable to assume that people got at least 100 million lottery tickets from WOF spin bonus that was introduced that week. Since WOF rewards were distributed evenly between lottery tickets, satoshis and reward points it's reasonable to assume that people also got roughly 100 million reward points and 100 million satoshis. That's 1 full BTC in immediate payouts and another one in delayed payouts (when people reach 100K reward points and convert) in one week. They had to shut it down quickly.
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The lottery is going to have a bias towards the largest whale bettors, that is as it should be and also in proportion it still allows everyone a chance no matter how slim. Im reckon Im drawing on my half forgotten stats lessons here but its valid to categorize probabilities which are equal when considering the likelihood of an overall outcome. So if there perhaps is a million people with 10 tickets and one big player accumulated 10 million tickets, individually the little players garner ( 50% / 1m ) chance their exact 10 tickets popping up; while the big player with far more tickets has a 50% chance of winning but if considering either category collectively their chances are equal.
This is why it gets puzzling when the little guy can come through with such an unlikely win, there was always some chance and alot of the time people are getting free entries as well but altogether to consider outcome result per ticket odds the masses of people may have equal or even greater chances then the largest bettors of collecting the weekly lottery. Thats how I view it and I might be off on whether that's the correct way to arrange odds.
I think that is a good way of looking at it. if you break ticket holders into groups you get this: group with 1 to 500 tkts ~20% tkts; 500-3,000 - ~10%; 3,000-5,000 ~45%; 5,000-10,000 ~10%; 10,000-100,000 ~10%; 100,000+ ~5%. So even though individually whales have better chances than other players as a group they are less likely to win than any other group. The largest group is people with 3-5K tickets and we see a lot of them among the winners. |
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Some stats from round 332: 596,248 accounts participated; 92,949 new UID's since previous round; 7,734 accounts with a single ticket; 50 accounts with more than 100,000 tickets; Top ticket holders 2,766,671 tickets (UID 8510301), 2,336,411 - (41259460), 1,090,756 - (18390800).  Collect as many tickets as you can by wagering and free spins to increase your chance of winning up to $7,500 in BTC on the coming Sunday. Congratulations to the 10 Lucky Winners of Lottery Round 332. |
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Hopefully i get to win some day  I've been stacking lottery tickets like crazy with standard rolling and WOF, but so far no dice for me (pun intended). Rolex would be nice as well Well, I have also had that same hope since 2017, I have seen that more people enter to play on Freebitco.in so the demand on the platform is much higher, which means that the chances of winning decrease, however I have seen how many buy too many tickets and although they have a good percentage of advantage over the others they do not win, in my case I have always bought very few, in reality it is negligible, sometimes I only buy a single ticket, but this is a lottery, it is not known When good luck can touch you and win, so do not give up, and enjoy the trip, at the least expected moment you will win. And here is a good example: The winner of the last round 328 was quite lucky. UID for that account is 47049022. The last UID number that participated in round 326 2 weeks ago was 47019304. It means that someone got the first prize with only 5,614 tickets about 2 weeks after opening the account. 621,220 accounts participated in round 328 with total 254,089,739 tickets. The current leader of the Wagering Contest had 4,639,783 tickets (~1.83% of all tickets) and didn't win anything. |
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I've forwarded your suggestions so far to wetsuit, keep them coming.
weekly consolation prizes for biggest losers. or call them boldest players, if you will. with live standings |
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P.S. did wetsuit play this one, I'm sure it began with UID 5 on the sheet and that seems quite low for it to be another user.
wetsuit's UID is 4. Check the ref link in his signature! I made a scatter graph of the tickets but it doesn't give so much.
I'm not sure how to get the best out of it but UIDs close together with similar numbers of tickets (looks around 25k) is what to look for. there's ~30K of such accounts starting at UID 15055000 and ending around 152383xx |
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