If we would have gone to 850$ yesterday, everyone would praise the OP as a prophet. But he just made a guess. I should open such a thread, too. I lose nothing but there is slight chance that everyone will praise me...

Consider this, if WhatsApp is worth 19 Billion to Facebook and depending on which reports you believe, 10B to Google, how is Bitcoin worth only 3 billion (rough market cap at 300/btc).

There are other instant messenger apps, but their mind/market share of 400 million users was worth a premium.

I personally think Facebook would have been better served by building their own app or buying a smaller startup with better tech and paying $500 to the 1% most interconnected users to switch (cost ~10% of what they paid). If that wasn't enough throw $10 to all of the rest of the users to switch and it's still half as much as they paid and they don't have a poorly developed, security hole ridden pile of legacy code to fix.

It is true, when it comes to TA, I am complete novice (hence TA 101) and it also true that I am building my TA 101 interpretation on what I intuitively feel lies around the corner for Bitcoin. For the first time in a long time, I just don't have the Bitcoin fear that has made me a bear since the second $1000 - $1100 range (I never even knew what a double top was back then). I think Bitcoin right about now will prove a good investment in the medium term.

The position that I am taking, is that right now, I am shorting Bitcoin on Bitfinex. On Bitstamp where I keep the vast majority of my powder, I have buy in tranches from $505 down to $460 which would be down in the oversold range of the current long term trend, which I feel is due to reverse.

If however, we can get above 580 peaking at around 600 range before testing 580 as a support. Then I will be prepared to admit defeat on both my short and my sub $400 buy in tranches but acknowledge that a head n shoulders has occurred with two shoulders at $530 range (which we hit yesterday evening) and buy in on trend reversal confirmation.

If am totally 100% wrong, and my sub $400 buy-ins get triggered and Bitcoin crashes through $400 and into $300 range, then I should have good opportunity to cover my ass on the bounce. I will also have an leveraged short position which should also hedge me against any heavy losses should it transpire that my instincts on this one are wrong.

As I have said many times, I do believe in lower lows before any ATHs are found....just can't bring myself to believe that any lower low is just lingering around the corner.

Based on what I read Matthecat is a day trader who makes several short term predictions on a daily basis. Of course when you make that many predictions you will come up wrong at a higher rate, but overall his predictions have been good.

Others who make long term predictions about the market look more accurate because they make few predictions and the price can hit a wider range for that person to look correct.

At the same time, its not a pissing contest. Obiwon if you think it will hit that price in 2 days better throw alot of fiat on the exhanges and buy, can make a very quick return on it apparently. And now since you have judged others analysis expect the same to happen to you (if you dont disappear on March 4).

Obi-Wan-Coinobi is an $800 BTC bag holder.

He merely wishes that Bitcoin gets to this price point so he can finally cash out without having taken a kicking from the market.

Are you fucking shitting me?

 


March 3rd is in like 2 days.

Whilst there are signs of an inverse head and shoulders forming.

Current volume momentum indicates a strong move down from here which would rather suggest that the inverse head n shoulders break out aint gonna happen.

And even if a break were to occur, $850, taking out several major resistance points, in 2 days?

Keep dreaming you damn bag holder.

but some how his predictions seemed to work out all the time.... while I was blind and listening to noobs like you shooting out "to da moon to da moon" and ignoring all the TAs, these people were making real profits.


I know you bought your bitcoins high and now you are "wishing for the price to go up to break even" but wishing doesn't change anything nor change the price, now if there will be huge volume and less resistance pushing the price up for days or at least keeping it at this level for days, i will reconsider my position.

but now my FIAT is waiting calmly on exchanges



also if you are so convinced why don't you prove that with some charts ?  or is it a feeling ?

You may want to have a little read of TA 101A, and come back to us with another 'prediction'.

I fully expect some of you guys who are short term trading/day trading bitcoin, especially in the US, to be well and truly fucked over by the IRS as they catch up and issue guidance on taxing bitcoin.  I seriously hope you guys are keeping good records.