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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. on: September 27, 2019, 04:57:00 PM
Still doesn't look too bullish tbh.
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. on: August 14, 2019, 08:24:30 AM

Hello guys,


Hello OP,

I give you another alternative view from my universe. Zoom out!




But is it really that bullish?

It kinda looks like it could have flattened out already?
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. on: August 13, 2019, 08:39:58 PM
The truth is, bear had never go away, its that the bullish market is pretty dominant at this moment but sometimes Bearish appears but easily dominated by bulls, that is another reason why we can see higher low (price crashing but higher than the previous  bottom price) during the bullish season of Bitcoin market.  I also agree that there is always a possibility that the trend will go the other way (Bitcoin going down) but I dis-agree that there is no bull market because if there is no Bull market then what do you call this rally of BTC from 3k up to the present price?
That would then be a bullish periode that has ended with the nearly 13k high.
4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. on: August 09, 2019, 05:49:06 PM
I think for most investors bitcoin is currently too volatile so they don't invest lot's of money.

a few months ago the price was $3000 and now the price is $11800, it shows that people have bought a lot and you can look at the altcoins that are dropping too much, and in my opinion the price of the altcoins is dropping a lot why are people selling their altcoins to buy bitcoin. and why are people selling their altcoins to buy bitcoins? because of halving, because of the possible entry of BAKKT and other companies. in my opinion the price will increase very long term

Yeah sure, and during the bear market people sold a lot.
What if it's just the same people jumping back on board?
Would explain why we did get a decent high, but a lower one than 2017 (because the hype isn't as big as back then).
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. on: August 08, 2019, 05:31:37 PM
I kinda did 'just draw some lines on a chart' but that's my point - depending on how you draw the lines, btc seems to be going up or going down. Simply depends on how you look at it/draw the lines.
Long term trends > short term trends. This is why charting the daily/weekly chart is actually useful for traders, while looking at the 1-minute chart is just chaotic noise. Over the long term, markets revert to the mean. For Bitcoin, that's a very well established long term uptrend.

I actually showed multiple long term pictures already.

Is it really bullish when looking at it since 2014?
6  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. on: August 08, 2019, 04:33:19 PM
People who are locked in the past can never move to future, I may have butchered the translation of that from my language but that is true in any language. If you still think that what happened in bitcoins past will repeat itself in the future you are wrong, you are dead wrong.

The notion that "history repeats itself" then you are super wrong, people do take out lessons from the wrongs that has been done in the past and we move from that. Maybe we are not progressing as well as we should and maybe sometimes we take a step back or two but eventually humanity always goes further and so does everything with it. Bitcoin do not have a 4 year cycle nor does it do things like people expect it to do, just because 2017 was a peak doesn't mean 2021-2022 will be neither, we are already in a bull market since we moved from 3k to 11k already if you haven't noticed.

but...
...the 2019 high is 1/3 lower than the 2017/18 high.
...since the 2019 high we had two more peaks - each one lower than the one before that
...since the august uptrend we had like 5-6 peaks, each one lower than the one that came before it

Does this sound or look bullish to you?



Just like all of you I hope for btc to break out towards new highs and I think the current world economy doesn't look too bad for it. But I am not delusional and realize that it might very well go in the other direction.
7  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. on: August 08, 2019, 08:57:10 AM
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When bitcoin rise from below $3150 to $5000 in April 2019, it is a clear indication that the bearish trend that commenced in January 2018 has ended and Bitcoin has resumed the bullish trend. I see all the long term indicators showing a sign of the beginning of a new bullish trend that will lead bitcoin to $100,000 or above and that might happen very soon. I have decided to keep holding and I strongly disagree with your views that bitcoin is in a downward trend. I don't think the correction is a change of trend directions!
Sure, it could be just a correction. I just want to point out that it is also possible that we already have reached the peak and are now starting to decline. Sure, it could go bullish like this but it also could go bearish like that.

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It shouldnt last positively forever, I think your charts are perfectly reasonable.   Are you new to the forum, far too rational a post for somebody new :p
I appreciate it! I tried to spark a discussion on reddit but /r/bitcoin is literally a worse echo chamber than /r/the_donald  Grin


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The majority is from speculation but there is business that turns over in Bitcoin and even could give a yield for its operations.
I think the only people that (on average) are making money with bitcoin trading are the trading platforms and whales that can do market manipulation. Other than that I think bitcoin is too unpredictable for trading.


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OP is total retard.   Cheesy
no u


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when people talk about "long term" and bullishness of bitcoin they are talking about the over all trend that happens over the years not in some couple of months or even one year. meaning price may be down this month (for example) but it will be up in a year from now.
Yes I am aware of that. But right now we are down quite a bit from the last all time high and also down from the 'all year high'.
You could even draw a bearish trendline on the all-time-chart.


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that is an entirely different discussion and it is not something you could see by drawing some lines on the charts!
your argument is that bitcoin adoption has come to an end and no more people are going to ever adopt bitcoin. that simply is false. the adoption has not yet happened for more than 1% of the world. we still have a long way to go.
How do you know that it 'simply is false'? Did you take a look into your glass sphere?
Seriously though, 1% sounds like WAY too much. But let's say it was 1% - how do you know that 1% isn't the point of market saturation?

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your "theory" doesn't have any reasons in it. you are basically making guesses based on your own feeling.
So, literally the same as you are doing.

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try explaining it and come up with reasons first. for example why do you think bitcoin adoption has come to an end while it is just starting up?
The 2018 super-hype was big enough to reach basically every person that reads the news and thus everyone willing to get into bitcoin already has done so.

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As far as Bitcoin not paying out dividends, it's not entirely true. Bitcoin holders have been generously rewarded with a wide variety of forks (forks you wouldn't have for free if you didn't hold Bitcoin prior to the splits).

Bcash was like an insane dividend. I don't hold my coins on an exchange so I couldn't cash them out at the highest possible price of over 0.4BTC, but I still managed to net an average of 0.19BTC per coin. Where do you get that?

Then we had BTG of which I managed to net an average of 0.03BTC. There have been way more forks but these two turned out to be the most rewarding. I still think that we will see more forks when the bull run really kicks in.
Okay that's great, I wasn't aware of that.
But still, it's not something you could rely on so it's not really comparable to dividends.
8  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. on: August 07, 2019, 01:21:20 PM
Also, while FIAT currency could be created out of thin air, the currency in my coutnry has nearly 0 inflation in the last 10 years and thus is really stable

And which currency is that ?

I am not aware of a single FIAT currency with almost 0 inflation within the last 10 years.
Swiss franc.
Yeah sure it's a currency that is more stable than most. But still, inflation in the euro/dollar is not that high.

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Well.. the average lifespan of a FIAT currency is 27 years.
I really doubt that, sounds like fake news.
Also there are many reasons why this isn't a relevant number even IF it was true. E.g. since removal of the gold standard not that much time has passed. Also some fiat currencies didn't 'die' as in lose all it's value but rather got replaced (euro) which isn't really an issue for the consumer.
9  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. on: August 07, 2019, 12:39:43 PM
BTC price quotes:
01.06.2015: ~230 $
01.06.2016: ~530 $
01.06.2017: ~2.350 $
01.06.2018: ~7.500 $
01.06.2019: ~8.500 $
Yeah that's looking good, I can't deny that!


You just draw some lines on a chart since the ATH.

I mean.. look, i can draw lines too:


I kinda did 'just draw some lines on a chart' but that's my point - depending on how you draw the lines, btc seems to be going up or going down. Simply depends on how you look at it/draw the lines. But it appears to me like 99% are drawing the lines like it HAS to go up, when in my opinion there is also a significant chance of btc actually not going up!


I think for most investors bitcoin is currently too volatile so they don't invest lot's of money. Also bitcoin is not really backed up by anything and it doesn't pay out dividends.

Same applies to FIAT currencies.
The USD is not backed by anything either.

And both can be created out of thin air without any maximum supply.. oh wait.. this only applies to FIAT currencies  Tongue
Sure, but from what I know investors invest in stock, gold, silver, real estate etc and not in the USD?!
Also, while FIAT currency could be created out of thin air, the currency in my coutnry has nearly 0 inflation in the last 10 years and thus is really stable, where as bitcoin gains/loses a few hundret percent within months. So the fiat system seems to work really well in the real world?


10  Economy / Speculation / Re: Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. on: August 07, 2019, 10:33:15 AM
Because of this, it will always increase in value at an inflation beating rate in my opinion.
So why is it decreasing in mid term and long term (see my chart images)?

Bitcoin created a completely new asset class, and it is unique within that class. It is now being accumulated by the elite and the asset managers as an addition to precious metals and other enduring assets.
I don't completely disagree. That could be the future for bitcoin.
But right now, it feels more like whales are placing bets on the price to go up/down and then dump/buy a ton of bitcoin to win their bet. I really think whales are a big problem for the future of bitcoin.

I think for most investors bitcoin is currently too volatile so they don't invest lot's of money. Also bitcoin is not really backed up by anything and it doesn't pay out dividends.
11  Economy / Speculation / Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down. on: August 07, 2019, 08:08:12 AM
Hello guys,

I am aware of the '4 year cycle' and that nearly everybody here believes bitcoin is long term bullish. I am not saying I totally disagree with that, but I do think other options are also possible and should be discussed!

When looking at the charts, it's pretty obvious that we are in a downtrend since more than one month:
https://i.ibb.co/bgbbBf1/07-08-2019-2.png

Even at the bigger timeframe, it doesn't look like bitcoin is going to the moon:
https://i.ibb.co/sHC8Cd7/07-08-2019-3.png


Could it be that the 2018 all time high kind of 'saturated' the bitcoin market so that most people that are interested in btc already know of it (and bought in if they wanted to do so), thus future highs will never reach the same price again? In the previous (before 2018) bull markets, it was always far from saturation meaning only some people (more every cycle) knew about bitcoin. But in 2018 literally everyone that reads news learned about bitcoin (and invested if he believed in it). So, now we simply lack investors that could push the price up.

What do you think? Bullshit theory? Could it be true?

In any way, I think it will soon show whether the recent uptrend or the downtrend will be stronger:
https://i.ibb.co/Qbfbx9F/07-08-2019.png
I think whether the price will then go up or down will be decisive for the btc price trend for at least a week.
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