Alternative view: There is no bull market. Bitcoin will go down.

[tuner324]

Hello guys,

I am aware of the '4 year cycle' and that nearly everybody here believes bitcoin is long term bullish. I am not saying I totally disagree with that, but I do think other options are also possible and should be discussed!

When looking at the charts, it's pretty obvious that we are in a downtrend since more than one month:
https://i.ibb.co/bgbbBf1/07-08-2019-2.png

Even at the bigger timeframe, it doesn't look like bitcoin is going to the moon:
https://i.ibb.co/sHC8Cd7/07-08-2019-3.png


Could it be that the 2018 all time high kind of 'saturated' the bitcoin market so that most people that are interested in btc already know of it (and bought in if they wanted to do so), thus future highs will never reach the same price again? In the previous (before 2018) bull markets, it was always far from saturation meaning only some people (more every cycle) knew about bitcoin. But in 2018 literally everyone that reads news learned about bitcoin (and invested if he believed in it). So, now we simply lack investors that could push the price up.

What do you think? Bullshit theory? Could it be true?

In any way, I think it will soon show whether the recent uptrend or the downtrend will be stronger:
https://i.ibb.co/Qbfbx9F/07-08-2019.png
I think whether the price will then go up or down will be decisive for the btc price trend for at least a week.

[1715636869]

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[1715636869]

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[Baronets]

Bitcoin created a completely new asset class, and it is unique within that class. It is now being accumulated by the elite and the asset managers as an addition to precious metals and other enduring assets. Because of this, it will always increase in value at an inflation beating rate in my opinion.

[tuner324]

Because of this, it will always increase in value at an inflation beating rate in my opinion.

So why is it decreasing in mid term and long term (see my chart images)?

Bitcoin created a completely new asset class, and it is unique within that class. It is now being accumulated by the elite and the asset managers as an addition to precious metals and other enduring assets.

I don't completely disagree. That could be the future for bitcoin.
But right now, it feels more like whales are placing bets on the price to go up/down and then dump/buy a ton of bitcoin to win their bet. I really think whales are a big problem for the future of bitcoin.

I think for most investors bitcoin is currently too volatile so they don't invest lot's of money. Also bitcoin is not really backed up by anything and it doesn't pay out dividends.

[jossiel]

I respect your analysis and insight about the current move of bitcoin and I cant blame you for thinking this isnt a bull run.

But there is one thing that we can always bear to our minds and that is bitcoin is a definite unpredictable digital asset. It has been told to be one of the best store of value by most and that's why every person that is researching about it dont want to miss this lifetime opportunity.

If you are worrying about who will push the price up, well the total market cap isnt even compose of the whole world market involvement. There are still big players, institutions and countries that can push the price.

[bob123]

So why is it decreasing in mid term and long term (see my chart images)?

BTC price quotes:

01.06.2015: ~230 $
01.06.2016: ~530 $
01.06.2017: ~2.350 $
01.06.2018: ~7.500 $
01.06.2019: ~8.500 $


I don't know man.. doesn't seem like a long term price decrease to me.

Maybe we have different definitions of a price decrease and/or long term ?


You just draw some lines on a chart since the ATH.


I mean.. look, i can draw lines too:




Seems like 1.1k $ in 11/2013 was the highest bitcoin will ever reach. Clear downtrend, don't expect BTC to break 1.1k$ anymore.. oh.. wait.

I think for most investors bitcoin is currently too volatile so they don't invest lot's of money. Also bitcoin is not really backed up by anything and it doesn't pay out dividends.

Same applies to FIAT currencies.
The USD is not backed by anything either.

And both can be created out of thin air without any maximum supply.. oh wait.. this only applies to FIAT currencies 

[tuner324]

BTC price quotes:
01.06.2015: ~230 $
01.06.2016: ~530 $
01.06.2017: ~2.350 $
01.06.2018: ~7.500 $
01.06.2019: ~8.500 $

Yeah that's looking good, I can't deny that!

You just draw some lines on a chart since the ATH.

I mean.. look, i can draw lines too:

https://i.imgur.com/cXTVG8D.png

I kinda did 'just draw some lines on a chart' but that's my point - depending on how you draw the lines, btc seems to be going up or going down. Simply depends on how you look at it/draw the lines. But it appears to me like 99% are drawing the lines like it HAS to go up, when in my opinion there is also a significant chance of btc actually not going up!

I think for most investors bitcoin is currently too volatile so they don't invest lot's of money. Also bitcoin is not really backed up by anything and it doesn't pay out dividends.

Same applies to FIAT currencies.
The USD is not backed by anything either.

And both can be created out of thin air without any maximum supply.. oh wait.. this only applies to FIAT currencies 

Sure, but from what I know investors invest in stock, gold, silver, real estate etc and not in the USD?!
Also, while FIAT currency could be created out of thin air, the currency in my coutnry has nearly 0 inflation in the last 10 years and thus is really stable, where as bitcoin gains/loses a few hundret percent within months. So the fiat system seems to work really well in the real world?

[bob123]

But it appears to me like 99% are drawing the lines like it HAS to go up, when in my opinion there is also a significant chance of btc actually not going up!

Well yes.. almost all 'analysts' are just people who have fun drawing some lines.
BTC could pump to 100k$ within a month, but it could also drop to 100$ in the same timeframe.

The probability for both is pretty low, but still possible tho.

Also, while FIAT currency could be created out of thin air, the currency in my coutnry has nearly 0 inflation in the last 10 years and thus is really stable

And which currency is that ?

I am not aware of a single FIAT currency with almost 0 inflation within the last 10 years.

So the fiat system seems to work really well in the real world?

Well.. the average lifespan of a FIAT currency is 27 years.
And this fact doesn't sound very satisfying to me.

[tuner324]

Also, while FIAT currency could be created out of thin air, the currency in my coutnry has nearly 0 inflation in the last 10 years and thus is really stable

And which currency is that ?

I am not aware of a single FIAT currency with almost 0 inflation within the last 10 years.

Swiss franc.
Yeah sure it's a currency that is more stable than most. But still, inflation in the euro/dollar is not that high.

Well.. the average lifespan of a FIAT currency is 27 years.

I really doubt that, sounds like fake news.
Also there are many reasons why this isn't a relevant number even IF it was true. E.g. since removal of the gold standard not that much time has passed. Also some fiat currencies didn't 'die' as in lose all it's value but rather got replaced (euro) which isn't really an issue for the consumer.

[arpon11]

Hello guys,

I am aware of the '4 year cycle' and that nearly everybody here believes bitcoin is long term bullish. I am not saying I totally disagree with that, but I do think other options are also possible and should be discussed!

When looking at the charts, it's pretty obvious that we are in a downtrend since more than one month:
https://i.ibb.co/bgbbBf1/07-08-2019-2.png

Even at the bigger timeframe, it doesn't look like bitcoin is going to the moon:
https://i.ibb.co/sHC8Cd7/07-08-2019-3.png


Could it be that the 2018 all time high kind of 'saturated' the bitcoin market so that most people that are interested in btc already know of it (and bought in if they wanted to do so), thus future highs will never reach the same price again? In the previous (before 2018) bull markets, it was always far from saturation meaning only some people (more every cycle) knew about bitcoin. But in 2018 literally everyone that reads news learned about bitcoin (and invested if he believed in it). So, now we simply lack investors that could push the price up.

What do you think? Bullshit theory? Could it be true?

In any way, I think it will soon show whether the recent uptrend or the downtrend will be stronger:
https://i.ibb.co/Qbfbx9F/07-08-2019.png
I think whether the price will then go up or down will be decisive for the BTC price trend for at least a week.

When bitcoin rise from below $3150 to $5000 in April 2019, it is a clear indication that the bearish trend that commenced in January 2018 has ended and Bitcoin has resumed the bullish trend. I see all the long term indicators showing a sign of the beginning of a new bullish trend that will lead bitcoin to $100,000 or above and that might happen very soon. I have decided to keep holding and I strongly disagree with your views that bitcoin is in a downward trend. I don't think the correction is a change of trend directions!

[buwaytress]

Actually, it's not so contrarian as you might think, the early part of your theory. Now if we remember what the nervous bulls were talking about last year especially during the height of Bakkt hype, they insist that institutional investment is what will trigger the next bullrun.

Now that hasn't happened, according to themselves, neither will it happen soon so 2019 is just the natural uptake against a backdrop of poor global economic outlooks.

They who said it might not admit it but if they believed in their convictions of institutional money induced bullruns, then they must admit 2019 s simply not the year for it.

[fabiorem]

We arent in a bull run yet. Bitcoin is just recovering.

Dont you see the 12k mark? It keeps going up there then it falls again. 12-15k is the zone where the recovery ends and the bull run starts. The real bull run will bring bitcoin to six digits.

[hatshepsut93]

Could it be that the 2018 all time high kind of 'saturated' the bitcoin market so that most people that are interested in btc already know of it (and bought in if they wanted to do so), thus future highs will never reach the same price again? In the previous (before 2018) bull markets, it was always far from saturation meaning only some people (more every cycle) knew about bitcoin. But in 2018 literally everyone that reads news learned about bitcoin (and invested if he believed in it). So, now we simply lack investors that could push the price up.

People knew about things like gold for thousands of years and yet it still has bull and bear markets. The factor of novelty is just one reason why Bitcoin was growing, but there are many others, like scarcity, which grows with halvenings, growing adoption, usability as store of value and so on. Maybe we will have bear market soon, but it wouldn't be for the reasons that you have mentioned.

[playboy654]

Even at the bigger timeframe, it doesn't look like bitcoin is going to the moon:

One month is not really a bigger time frame atleast you need to consider the quadrants then you can see the price growth at most of the quadrants you are looking into.We are seeing bitcoin to be bullish since it was created only few months it went down called bearish but soon they will recover and stats to rule the crypto market.

[Harlot]

Bitcoin is way passed the 10,000$ mark several times already to call this Bull market fake. I don't know about you but BTC gaining back 255% of its value in less than a month says that this real bull market and is something way overdue, we waited for Bitcoin to rise back up again for 18 months and it just happened in a timely passion. Before you even label this a bear market you should try to identity what a bear market looks like. Simply a bear market doesn't have an upward trend and the volume is not always in favor of the buyers. You will see the exact opposite in the market today.

[1Referee]

I don't know about you but BTC gaining back 255% of its value in less than a month says that this real bull market and is something way overdue

Bitcoin's highest one month gain this year so far has been ~85%. 

Simply a bear market doesn't have an upward trend and the volume is not always in favor of the buyers. You will see the exact opposite in the market today.

You can actually have a bull run within a bear market, but the thing is that people with some sort of a bias against Bitcoin will always find a way to be bearish. Charts can be made to look super bullish or super bearish depending on the narrative you're pushing.

I am actually more appreciative of the bearish predictions than the bullish predictions because we already have so many moon predictions. Too bad people here are calling everyone with a bearish mindset fud spreaders or trolls. If my memory serves me well, Kwukduck has been the only actual fud spreader and troll we had. Too bad he's no longer active because it was very amusing seeing people go nuts on him. 

[STT]

BTC already went up on quite a regular basis so that was a bull market ?   We gained 20%, isnt that the official definition.    Problem is bear market is losing 20% which BTC is quite happy to do also and then regain it, hard to say with a price that varies this much.

It shouldnt last positively forever, I think your charts are perfectly reasonable.   Are you new to the forum, far too rational a post for somebody new :p
  I'm inclined to think we go down just because we lost the trend up, had to happen at some point.  So far we've mostly been observed to go sideways, it could be drawn negatively like you indicate and I dont disagree but its a unproven so far.   It aint easy being a bear in the concrete jungle, a bull can always eat grass and bide its time.

In natural markets it is harder to be a bear also, the moves are sharper and corrections to the upside are rapid even if the overall trend were be negative.
   My solution is to try what I think can be turning points, if I'm wrong and we exceed a previous high then its fair to have a stop loss on any short there.   Of course price always hunts out the stops but thats my best effort.   I dont know if Asia trading now will be more bullish and break up some but a sell would be nice



Can it keep below 12076

Also bitcoin is not really backed up by anything and it doesn't pay out dividends.

The majority is from speculation but there is business that turns over in Bitcoin and even could give a yield for its operations.  Bitcoin can only be said to be backed by its utility and by the people who are enabled by its continued existence.  Its never going to zero in its community and economics and its fair to say its still growing barring speculative involvements flowing in and out.

[Thirdspace]

you can have different analysis result depending on how you draw your lines and what time period you use
if you draw from jan 2018, it shows downtrend patterns, bounce in march 2019 but still not back up yet
if you draw from jan 2019, it shows sideway movements and beginning of bullish market in april 2019
this is why any technical analysis cannot be 100% accurate, it depends on what data you use and how you perceive it

imo, we are in bullish market now... I am just using the last 6 months data and
by observing the trade volume and the strength of buy over sell (book and done order)

[Herbert2020]

I am aware of the '4 year cycle'

sorry, there is no such thing as "4 year cycle" in bitcoin. it only happened once in past 10 years. and now people are forcing themselves into believing there is such trend by only relying on that one time (2013 to 2017)!
that doesn't make it a cycle.

and that nearly everybody here believes bitcoin is long term bullish. I am not saying I totally disagree with that, but I do think other options are also possible and should be discussed!
When looking at the charts, it's pretty obvious that we are in a downtrend since more than one month:

when people talk about "long term" and bullishness of bitcoin they are talking about the over all trend that happens over the years not in some couple of months or even one year. meaning price may be down this month (for example) but it will be up in a year from now.

Could it be that the 2018 all time high kind of 'saturated' the bitcoin market so that most people that are interested in btc already know of it (and bought in if they wanted to do so), thus future highs will never reach the same price again?

that is an entirely different discussion and it is not something you could see by drawing some lines on the charts!
your argument is that bitcoin adoption has come to an end and no more people are going to ever adopt bitcoin. that simply is false. the adoption has not yet happened for more than 1% of the world. we still have a long way to go.

What do you think? Bullshit theory? Could it be true?

your "theory" doesn't have any reasons in it. you are basically making guesses based on your own feeling.
try explaining it and come up with reasons first. for example why do you think bitcoin adoption has come to an end while it is just starting up?

[BitHodler]

As far as Bitcoin not paying out dividends, it's not entirely true. Bitcoin holders have been generously rewarded with a wide variety of forks (forks you wouldn't have for free if you didn't hold Bitcoin prior to the splits).

Bcash was like an insane dividend. I don't hold my coins on an exchange so I couldn't cash them out at the highest possible price of over 0.4BTC, but I still managed to net an average of 0.19BTC per coin. Where do you get that?

Then we had BTG of which I managed to net an average of 0.03BTC. There have been way more forks but these two turned out to be the most rewarding. I still think that we will see more forks when the bull run really kicks in.

[tuner324]

When bitcoin rise from below $3150 to $5000 in April 2019, it is a clear indication that the bearish trend that commenced in January 2018 has ended and Bitcoin has resumed the bullish trend. I see all the long term indicators showing a sign of the beginning of a new bullish trend that will lead bitcoin to $100,000 or above and that might happen very soon. I have decided to keep holding and I strongly disagree with your views that bitcoin is in a downward trend. I don't think the correction is a change of trend directions!

Sure, it could be just a correction. I just want to point out that it is also possible that we already have reached the peak and are now starting to decline. Sure, it could go bullish like this but it also could go bearish like that.

It shouldnt last positively forever, I think your charts are perfectly reasonable.   Are you new to the forum, far too rational a post for somebody new :p

I appreciate it! I tried to spark a discussion on reddit but /r/bitcoin is literally a worse echo chamber than /r/the_donald 

The majority is from speculation but there is business that turns over in Bitcoin and even could give a yield for its operations.

I think the only people that (on average) are making money with bitcoin trading are the trading platforms and whales that can do market manipulation. Other than that I think bitcoin is too unpredictable for trading.

OP is total retard.   

no u

when people talk about "long term" and bullishness of bitcoin they are talking about the over all trend that happens over the years not in some couple of months or even one year. meaning price may be down this month (for example) but it will be up in a year from now.

Yes I am aware of that. But right now we are down quite a bit from the last all time high and also down from the 'all year high'.
You could even draw a bearish trendline on the all-time-chart.

that is an entirely different discussion and it is not something you could see by drawing some lines on the charts!
your argument is that bitcoin adoption has come to an end and no more people are going to ever adopt bitcoin. that simply is false. the adoption has not yet happened for more than 1% of the world. we still have a long way to go.

How do you know that it 'simply is false'? Did you take a look into your glass sphere?
Seriously though, 1% sounds like WAY too much. But let's say it was 1% - how do you know that 1% isn't the point of market saturation?

your "theory" doesn't have any reasons in it. you are basically making guesses based on your own feeling.

So, literally the same as you are doing.

try explaining it and come up with reasons first. for example why do you think bitcoin adoption has come to an end while it is just starting up?

The 2018 super-hype was big enough to reach basically every person that reads the news and thus everyone willing to get into bitcoin already has done so.

As far as Bitcoin not paying out dividends, it's not entirely true. Bitcoin holders have been generously rewarded with a wide variety of forks (forks you wouldn't have for free if you didn't hold Bitcoin prior to the splits).

Bcash was like an insane dividend. I don't hold my coins on an exchange so I couldn't cash them out at the highest possible price of over 0.4BTC, but I still managed to net an average of 0.19BTC per coin. Where do you get that?

Then we had BTG of which I managed to net an average of 0.03BTC. There have been way more forks but these two turned out to be the most rewarding. I still think that we will see more forks when the bull run really kicks in.

Okay that's great, I wasn't aware of that.
But still, it's not something you could rely on so it's not really comparable to dividends.