Show Posts
|
Pages: [1] 2 »
|
Maybe we have a reversal. Let's hope the volume supports this for a proper CCMF. Hodl !!!!!1 ? Thanks. Forgot about that! HODL!!!!!!1One thing I don't understand. Why choose the red color when shouting hodl as red is mostly associated with selling ? Why not use green? It will be also good for people who don't want to rub their eyes every time they read this thread. HODL!I am a crypto-bear thinking bullish that's why!!!! HODL!!!!!!1
|
|
|
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=723392.0Interesting. Stamp using two banks now. Based on post #8, the former bank, unicredit, may have stopped taking deposits. This partially explains why total bid sum is recovering slower than in the past. I.e., no new deposits and some traders withdrawing from unicredit while they still can. Looks like unicredit wants to end its relationship with Stamp. How long will the new banking relationship with Raiffeisen last? According to this memo Raiffeisen tells their people to stay away from Bitcoin.
|
|
|
it looks nice, but I didn't udnerstood a damn thing. can you eleborate on it a bit more? how "trend" line is calculated (is it just average of all prices? but it's percentages?)
Re: trend line, watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LI0QYkv7--4 Given rpietilas current trend line you can calculate the trend price at x where x is the number of days since 2009-01-03. You can calculate x from a given date, e.g. x from Feb 22 in Python: >>> from datetime import date >>> x = (date(2014, 2, 22) - date(2009, 1, 3)).days >>> x 1876 Using rpietilas formula the trend price P for x = 1876 is P = 10 ^ (0.003073 * 1876 - 2.909514) = 716.8594 On Bitstamp Feb 22 high H = 619.88. That is H / P = 87.09% of Feb 22 trend price. What abs. value when L=0,3809 will be crossed? What is these gray areas?
The absolute value of L = 0.3809 depends on x: absv(L, x) = L * 10 ^ (0.003073 * x - 2.909514) E.g. for Feb 22: 0.3809 * 10 ^ (0.003073 * 1876 - 2.909514) = 273.0518 The grey area is between highs and lows on a 3-day chart, the typical price is defined as (H + L + C) / 3. BitcoinWisdom.com 3d chart with "Settings" -> "Lines" yields a similar graph. For me it's just an opportunity to draw funny graphs in R, don't read too much into it.
|
|
|
FWIW: This graph shows the Bitcoin price relative to the trend. It also contains quantiles of highs and lows since 2012. The price is between 38.09% and 213.45% of the trend price in 90% of all days since 2012. More quantiles: L:Q(0.1) = 0.4113907 L:Q(0.25) = 0.5348829 H:Q(0.75) = 1.198960 H:Q(0.9) = 1.709515 Median of the typical price T:Q(0.5) = 0.6922865
|
|
|
I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.
thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ? The graph has lines for 2, 3, ..., 9, 10, 20, ..., 90, 100, 200, ..., 900, 1000, 2000, ..., 9000, 10000. Why do you need base 2? cause it's hard to manually count this 100,200,300... I mean it's not hard but it's not handy. not user friendly I'm also a fan of base 2 log plots. I think it's the most practical for easily reading off precise amounts on a log plot. I prefer the log10 grid. Anyways, here is the same version with a log2 grid: https://i.imgur.com/JeTTfUQ.png
|
|
|
I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.
thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ? The graph has lines for 2, 3, ..., 9, 10, 20, ..., 90, 100, 200, ..., 900, 1000, 2000, ..., 9000, 10000. Why do you need base 2?
|
|
|
I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012. EDIT: update graph
|
|
|
What program did you use to make that graph? I'm interested in performing some bitcoin and litecoin trend analysis and I'm trying to find more tools to look at the data with. Send me a PM or respond in the thread please.
I think the graph in OP is made with Excel. I posted an updated graph created with R including its source code. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg3821474#msg3821474Where is the math? What fitting curve are you employing? I use a linear model lm() on the transformed prices. result <- lm(log10(prices) ~ months) As stated before, I'm a R n00b so this might be wrong.
|
|
|
What program did you use to make that graph? I'm interested in performing some bitcoin and litecoin trend analysis and I'm trying to find more tools to look at the data with. Send me a PM or respond in the thread please.
I think the graph in OP is made with Excel. I posted an updated graph created with R including its source code. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg3821474#msg3821474
|
|
|
This is a just for fun implementation in Pyhton, probably a bit over-engineered You can change the parameters in main() or write an argument parser. $ python -m sssplan Price mB left mB sold k$ out mB val. k$ sum total val. 2 9000 1000 2 18 2 20 4 8100 900 4 32 6 38 8 7290 810 6 58 12 70 16 6561 729 12 105 24 129 32 5905 656 21 189 45 234 64 5314 590 38 340 83 423 128 4783 531 68 612 151 763 256 4305 478 122 1102 273 1375 512 3874 430 220 1984 493 2477 1024 3487 387 397 3570 890 4461def iter_price(initial_price, steps, base=2): for i in steps: yield initial_price * base ** i
def iter_mbtc_left(initial_btc, rake, steps): base = (1 - rake) for i in steps: yield initial_btc * base ** i
def iter_mbtc_sold(initial_btc, rake, steps): piece = initial_btc * rake base = (1 - rake) for i in steps: yield piece * base ** (i - 1)
def iter_kusd_out(mbtc_sold, price): for mbtc, usd in zip(mbtc_sold, price): yield mbtc * usd / 1000.
def iter_kusd_sum(kusd_out): s = 0 for kusd in kusd_out: s += kusd yield s
def iter_mbtc_val(mbtc_left, prices): for mbtc, price in zip(mbtc_left, prices): yield mbtc * price / 1000.
def iter_total_val(mbtc_val, kusd_sum): for item in zip(mbtc_val, kusd_sum): yield sum(item)
def main(): base = 2 # doubling numof_steps = 10 initial_price = 1 # kUSD inital_btc_stash = 10000 # mBTC rake = 0.1
steps = range(1, numof_steps + 1) prices = list(iter_price(initial_price, steps, base=base)) mbtc_left = list(iter_mbtc_left(inital_btc_stash, rake, steps)) mbtc_sold = list(iter_mbtc_sold(inital_btc_stash, rake, steps)) kusd_out = list(iter_kusd_out(mbtc_sold, prices)) mbtc_val = list(iter_mbtc_val(mbtc_left, prices)) kusd_sum = list(iter_kusd_sum(kusd_out)) total_val = list(iter_total_val(mbtc_val, kusd_sum))
print ' Price mB left mB sold k$ out mB val. k$ sum total val.' fstr = ' {0:4} {1:6.0f} {2:8.0f} {3:7.0f} {4:8.0f} {5:7.0f} {6:8.0f}' for args in zip(prices, mbtc_left, mbtc_sold, kusd_out, mbtc_val, kusd_sum, total_val): print fstr.format(*args)
if __name__ == '__main__': main()
|
|
|
In March 23 the H price was ~11% above the trendline and today it is ~127%. Bitcoin is a tiger, though.
|
|
|
Historical highs and lows compared using rpietila's trendline:
Date Price / Trend = x% (Factor) Lows 2011-11-17 1.99 / 2.05 = 97.11% (1 / 1.03) 2012-08-19 7.58 / 13.90 = 54.52% (1 / 1.83) 2013-04-16 50.01 / 74.30 = 67.31% (1 / 1.49) 2013-07-05 65.42 / 129.59 = 50.48% (1 / 1.98) Highs 2011-06-08 31.91 / 0.67 = 4780.29% (1 * 47.80) 2012-01-05 7.22 / 2.87 = 251.38% (1 * 2.51) 2012-08-17 15.04 / 13.71 = 109.67% (1 * 1.10) 2013-04-10 266.00 / 71.22 = 373.48% (1 * 3.73) 2013-11-19 900.98 / 333.86 = 269.87% (1 * 2.70)
This looks interesting - but what does it mean? The average bubble is 3.12 times the trendline > x <- c(47.8, 2.51, 1.1, 3.73, 2,7) > summary(x) Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. 1.100 2.128 3.120 10.690 6.182 47.800 No, that's wrong. If by "average" you mean median and by "bubble" you mean the 5 highs you have included in your data set, then mental arithmetic shows that the answer should be 2.7. Your software gave the wrong answer because you entered ...3.73, 2,7) instead of ...3.73, 2.7) Ups. Thanks, fixed.
|
|
|
Historical highs and lows compared using rpietila's trendline:
Date Price / Trend = x% (Factor) Lows 2011-11-17 1.99 / 2.05 = 97.11% (1 / 1.03) 2012-08-19 7.58 / 13.90 = 54.52% (1 / 1.83) 2013-04-16 50.01 / 74.30 = 67.31% (1 / 1.49) 2013-07-05 65.42 / 129.59 = 50.48% (1 / 1.98) Highs 2011-06-08 31.91 / 0.67 = 4780.29% (1 * 47.80) 2012-01-05 7.22 / 2.87 = 251.38% (1 * 2.51) 2012-08-17 15.04 / 13.71 = 109.67% (1 * 1.10) 2013-04-10 266.00 / 71.22 = 373.48% (1 * 3.73) 2013-11-19 900.98 / 333.86 = 269.87% (1 * 2.70)
This looks interesting - but what does it mean? The average bubble is 3.12 2.7 times the trendline > x <- c(47.8, 2.51, 1.1, 3.73, 2.7) > summary(x) Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. 1.10 2.51 2.70 11.57 3.73 47.80Edit: fixed typo.
|
|
|
Historical highs and lows compared using rpietila's trendline:
Date Price / Trend = x% (Factor) Lows 2011-11-17 1.99 / 2.05 = 97.11% (1 / 1.03) 2012-08-19 7.58 / 13.90 = 54.52% (1 / 1.83) 2013-04-16 50.01 / 74.30 = 67.31% (1 / 1.49) 2013-07-05 65.42 / 129.59 = 50.48% (1 / 1.98) Highs 2011-06-08 31.91 / 0.67 = 4780.29% (1 * 47.80) 2012-01-05 7.22 / 2.87 = 251.38% (1 * 2.51) 2012-08-17 15.04 / 13.71 = 109.67% (1 * 1.10) 2013-04-10 266.00 / 71.22 = 373.48% (1 * 3.73) 2013-11-19 900.98 / 333.86 = 269.87% (1 * 2.70)
|
|
|
I'm a R n00b, is this a correct way to get the trendline in R? (just for fun) prices <- c( 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.005, 0.008, 0.06, 0.065, 0.062, 0.106, 0.27, 0.24, 0.39, 0.90, 0.85, 1.50, 6.38, 18.55, 14.10, 9.75, 5.76, 3.30, 2.60, 3.51, 6.11, 5.06, 4.88, 4.98, 5.06, 6.03, 8.04, 10.88, 11.46, 11.58, 11.51, 13.33, 16.31, 25.93, 58.14, 115.09, 112.81, 108.39, 83.80, 105.80, 124.33, 156.50 )
months <- 1:length(prices) result <- lm(log10(prices) ~ months)
plot(months, log10(prices)) abline(result, col="red")
a <- coef(result)[1] b <- coef(result)[2] r2 <- summary(result)$r.squared
|
|
|
|