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1  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 25, 2015, 10:20:28 PM
2  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 09, 2015, 09:06:19 PM
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/bitstamp/btcusd is working again
3  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 16, 2014, 11:41:23 AM
Maybe we have a reversal. Let's hope the volume supports this for a proper CCMF. Wink

Hodl !!!!!1 ?
Thanks. Forgot about that!

HODL!!!!!!1

One thing I don't understand.
Why choose the red color when shouting hodl as red is mostly associated with selling ?

Why not use green? It will be also good for people who don't want to rub their eyes every time they read this thread.

HODL!
I am a crypto-bear thinking bullish that's why!!!!

HODL!!!!!!1

4  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: August 07, 2014, 10:52:04 PM
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=723392.0

Interesting. Stamp using two banks now. Based on post #8, the former bank, unicredit, may have stopped taking deposits. This partially explains why total bid sum is recovering slower than in the past. I.e., no new deposits and some traders withdrawing from unicredit while they still can.

Looks like unicredit wants to end its relationship with Stamp. How long will the new banking relationship with Raiffeisen last?

According to this memo Raiffeisen tells their people to stay away from Bitcoin.
5  Economy / Speculation / Re: Memespeculation on: July 25, 2014, 10:22:15 AM
6  Economy / Economics / Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend on: February 23, 2014, 10:24:01 AM
it looks nice, but I didn't udnerstood a damn thing. can you eleborate on it a bit more? how "trend" line is calculated (is it just average of all prices? but it's percentages?)

Re: trend line, watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LI0QYkv7--4

Given rpietilas current trend line you can calculate the trend price at x where x is the number of days since 2009-01-03.

You can calculate x from a given date, e.g. x from Feb 22 in Python:

Code:
>>> from datetime import date
>>> x = (date(2014, 2, 22) - date(2009, 1, 3)).days
>>> x
1876

Using rpietilas formula the trend price P for x = 1876 is

P = 10 ^ (0.003073 * 1876 - 2.909514) = 716.8594

On Bitstamp Feb 22 high H = 619.88. That is H / P = 87.09% of Feb 22 trend price.

What abs. value when L=0,3809 will be crossed?
What is these gray areas?

The absolute value of L = 0.3809 depends on x:

absv(L, x) = L * 10 ^ (0.003073 * x - 2.909514)

E.g. for Feb 22: 0.3809 * 10 ^ (0.003073 * 1876 - 2.909514) = 273.0518

The grey area is between highs and lows on a 3-day chart, the typical price is defined as (H + L + C) / 3. BitcoinWisdom.com 3d chart with "Settings" -> "Lines" yields a similar graph.

For me it's just an opportunity to draw funny graphs in R, don't read too much into it.
7  Economy / Economics / Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend on: February 22, 2014, 11:51:48 AM
FWIW: This graph shows the Bitcoin price relative to the trend. It also contains quantiles of highs and lows since 2012. The price is between 38.09% and 213.45% of the trend price in 90% of all days since 2012.

More quantiles:

L:Q(0.1) = 0.4113907
L:Q(0.25) = 0.5348829

H:Q(0.75) = 1.198960
H:Q(0.9) = 1.709515

Median of the typical price T:Q(0.5) = 0.6922865

8  Economy / Economics / Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend on: February 20, 2014, 10:23:55 AM
I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.

thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ?

The graph has lines for 2, 3, ..., 9, 10, 20, ..., 90, 100, 200, ..., 900, 1000, 2000, ..., 9000, 10000.

Why do you need base 2?

cause it's hard to manually count this 100,200,300...
I mean it's not hard but it's not handy.

not user friendly

I'm also a fan of base 2 log plots. I think it's the most practical for easily reading off precise amounts on a log plot.

I prefer the log10 grid. Anyways, here is the same version with a log2 grid: https://i.imgur.com/JeTTfUQ.png
9  Economy / Economics / Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend on: February 19, 2014, 08:15:09 AM
I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.

thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ?

The graph has lines for 2, 3, ..., 9, 10, 20, ..., 90, 100, 200, ..., 900, 1000, 2000, ..., 9000, 10000.

Why do you need base 2?
10  Economy / Economics / Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend on: February 18, 2014, 09:47:31 PM
I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.


EDIT: update graph
11  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: January 10, 2014, 01:22:41 PM
Don't HODL your breath... Only your Bitcoins!!!

PS:
CCMF Grin

Someone please update the dictionary!
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=ccmf
12  Economy / Economics / Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend on: December 10, 2013, 02:01:40 PM
What program did you use to make that graph? I'm interested in performing some bitcoin and litecoin trend analysis and I'm trying to find more tools to look at the data with. Send me a PM or respond in the thread please.

I think the graph in OP is made with Excel. I posted an updated graph created with R including its source code.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg3821474#msg3821474

Where is the math? What fitting curve are you employing?

I use a linear model lm() on the transformed prices.

Code:
result <- lm(log10(prices) ~ months)

As stated before, I'm a R n00b so this might be wrong.
13  Economy / Economics / Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend on: December 10, 2013, 09:52:59 AM
What program did you use to make that graph? I'm interested in performing some bitcoin and litecoin trend analysis and I'm trying to find more tools to look at the data with. Send me a PM or respond in the thread please.

I think the graph in OP is made with Excel. I posted an updated graph created with R including its source code.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg3821474#msg3821474
14  Economy / Economics / Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend on: December 04, 2013, 03:19:11 PM


R source: http://pastebin.com/peG2wg5p.
15  Economy / Economics / Re: (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan on: November 25, 2013, 12:51:24 PM
This is a just for fun implementation in Pyhton, probably a bit over-engineered  Grin

You can change the parameters in main() or write an argument parser.

$ python -m sssplan
 Price  mB left  mB sold  k$ out  mB val.  k$ sum  total val.
    2   9000     1000       2       18       2       20
    4   8100      900       4       32       6       38
    8   7290      810       6       58      12       70
   16   6561      729      12      105      24      129
   32   5905      656      21      189      45      234
   64   5314      590      38      340      83      423
  128   4783      531      68      612     151      763
  256   4305      478     122     1102     273     1375
  512   3874      430     220     1984     493     2477
 1024   3487      387     397     3570     890     4461


Code:
def iter_price(initial_price, steps, base=2):
    for i in steps:
        yield initial_price * base ** i

def iter_mbtc_left(initial_btc, rake, steps):
    base = (1 - rake)
    for i in steps:
        yield initial_btc * base ** i

def iter_mbtc_sold(initial_btc, rake, steps):
    piece = initial_btc * rake
    base = (1 - rake)
    for i in steps:
        yield piece * base ** (i - 1)

def iter_kusd_out(mbtc_sold, price):
    for mbtc, usd in zip(mbtc_sold, price):
        yield mbtc * usd / 1000.

def iter_kusd_sum(kusd_out):
    s = 0
    for kusd in kusd_out:
        s += kusd
        yield s

def iter_mbtc_val(mbtc_left, prices):
    for mbtc, price in zip(mbtc_left, prices):
        yield mbtc * price / 1000.

def iter_total_val(mbtc_val, kusd_sum):
    for item in zip(mbtc_val, kusd_sum):
        yield sum(item)

def main():
    base = 2 # doubling
    numof_steps = 10
    initial_price = 1 # kUSD
    inital_btc_stash = 10000 # mBTC
    rake = 0.1

    steps = range(1, numof_steps + 1)
    prices = list(iter_price(initial_price, steps, base=base))
    mbtc_left = list(iter_mbtc_left(inital_btc_stash, rake, steps))
    mbtc_sold = list(iter_mbtc_sold(inital_btc_stash, rake, steps))
    kusd_out = list(iter_kusd_out(mbtc_sold, prices))
    mbtc_val = list(iter_mbtc_val(mbtc_left, prices))
    kusd_sum = list(iter_kusd_sum(kusd_out))
    total_val = list(iter_total_val(mbtc_val, kusd_sum))

    print ' Price  mB left  mB sold  k$ out  mB val.  k$ sum  total val.'
    fstr = ' {0:4} {1:6.0f} {2:8.0f} {3:7.0f} {4:8.0f} {5:7.0f} {6:8.0f}'
    for args in zip(prices, mbtc_left, mbtc_sold,
                    kusd_out, mbtc_val, kusd_sum, total_val):
        print fstr.format(*args)

if __name__ == '__main__':
    main()
16  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 22, 2013, 12:11:03 PM

In March 23 the H price was ~11% above the trendline and today it is ~127%. Bitcoin is a tiger, though.
17  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 21, 2013, 12:46:55 PM
Historical highs and lows compared using rpietila's trendline:

      Date        Price  / Trend  = x%       (Factor)
Lows  2011-11-17    1.99 /   2.05 =   97.11% (1 /  1.03)
      2012-08-19    7.58 /  13.90 =   54.52% (1 /  1.83)
      2013-04-16   50.01 /  74.30 =   67.31% (1 /  1.49)
      2013-07-05   65.42 / 129.59 =   50.48% (1 /  1.98)
Highs 2011-06-08   31.91 /   0.67 = 4780.29% (1 * 47.80)
      2012-01-05    7.22 /   2.87 =  251.38% (1 *  2.51)
      2012-08-17   15.04 /  13.71 =  109.67% (1 *  1.10)
      2013-04-10  266.00 /  71.22 =  373.48% (1 *  3.73)
      2013-11-19  900.98 / 333.86 =  269.87% (1 *  2.70)


This looks interesting - but what does it mean?

The average bubble is 3.12 times the trendline Wink

> x <- c(47.8, 2.51, 1.1, 3.73, 2,7)
> summary(x)
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.
  1.100   2.128   3.120  10.690   6.182  47.800



No, that's wrong. If by "average" you mean median and by "bubble" you mean the 5 highs you have included in your data set, then mental arithmetic shows that the answer should be 2.7. Your software gave the wrong answer because you entered ...3.73, 2,7) instead of ...3.73, 2.7)


Ups. Thanks, fixed.
18  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 21, 2013, 12:32:18 PM
Historical highs and lows compared using rpietila's trendline:

      Date        Price  / Trend  = x%       (Factor)
Lows  2011-11-17    1.99 /   2.05 =   97.11% (1 /  1.03)
      2012-08-19    7.58 /  13.90 =   54.52% (1 /  1.83)
      2013-04-16   50.01 /  74.30 =   67.31% (1 /  1.49)
      2013-07-05   65.42 / 129.59 =   50.48% (1 /  1.98)
Highs 2011-06-08   31.91 /   0.67 = 4780.29% (1 * 47.80)
      2012-01-05    7.22 /   2.87 =  251.38% (1 *  2.51)
      2012-08-17   15.04 /  13.71 =  109.67% (1 *  1.10)
      2013-04-10  266.00 /  71.22 =  373.48% (1 *  3.73)
      2013-11-19  900.98 / 333.86 =  269.87% (1 *  2.70)


This looks interesting - but what does it mean?

The average bubble is 3.12 2.7 times the trendline Wink

> x <- c(47.8, 2.51, 1.1, 3.73, 2.7)
> summary(x)
   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max.
   1.10    2.51    2.70   11.57    3.73   47.80


Edit: fixed typo.
19  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: November 21, 2013, 11:18:40 AM
Historical highs and lows compared using rpietila's trendline:

      Date        Price  / Trend  = x%       (Factor)
Lows  2011-11-17    1.99 /   2.05 =   97.11% (1 /  1.03)
      2012-08-19    7.58 /  13.90 =   54.52% (1 /  1.83)
      2013-04-16   50.01 /  74.30 =   67.31% (1 /  1.49)
      2013-07-05   65.42 / 129.59 =   50.48% (1 /  1.98)
Highs 2011-06-08   31.91 /   0.67 = 4780.29% (1 * 47.80)
      2012-01-05    7.22 /   2.87 =  251.38% (1 *  2.51)
      2012-08-17   15.04 /  13.71 =  109.67% (1 *  1.10)
      2013-04-10  266.00 /  71.22 =  373.48% (1 *  3.73)
      2013-11-19  900.98 / 333.86 =  269.87% (1 *  2.70)
20  Economy / Economics / Re: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend on: November 20, 2013, 01:11:22 PM
I'm a R n00b, is this a correct way to get the trendline in R? (just for fun)

Code:
prices <- c(
      0.005,   0.005,   0.005,   0.005,   0.005,   0.005,
      0.005,   0.005,   0.005,   0.005,   0.005,   0.005,
      0.005,   0.005,   0.005,   0.005,   0.005,   0.008,
      0.06,    0.065,   0.062,   0.106,   0.27,    0.24,
      0.39,    0.90,    0.85,    1.50,    6.38,   18.55,
     14.10,    9.75,    5.76,    3.30,    2.60,    3.51,
      6.11,    5.06,    4.88,    4.98,    5.06,    6.03,
      8.04,   10.88,   11.46,   11.58,   11.51,   13.33,
     16.31,   25.93,   58.14,  115.09,  112.81,  108.39,
     83.80,  105.80,  124.33,  156.50
)

months <- 1:length(prices)
result <- lm(log10(prices) ~ months)

plot(months, log10(prices))
abline(result, col="red")

a <- coef(result)[1]
b <- coef(result)[2]
r2 <- summary(result)$r.squared


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