In the last 30 days, the XMR to silver ratio has gone from 1:2.5ozt to 1:4.5ozt.
It's also worth noting that real estate has began to decline in USD many areas and the average days on market for properties is increasing.
The dow is trending down from its six month high.
Soft commodities such as coffee and cotton are still near their five year lows, but are starting to trend upward.
Are we seeing the beginnings of a global market reversal?
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I was among the folks who was disappointed that we chose to add the tail emission. In fact I was FIRMLY against it. And still recognize it came at a cost. The biggest of which was the change to the social contract, and putting Monero among the cryptocurrencies that have shown that unlike Bitcoin, the more centralized leadership can change the financial contract thereby putting a dent in the store of value property of Monero.
I'm not aware of the tail emission changing the social contract, as it was discussed before even bitMonero was released, and even though it wasn't implemented right away, a ~1% inflation was listed on Monero's announcement thread from day 1. Further, even though we may not have realized it at the time, the tail emission wasn't really optional, as the dynamic block size cannot function without it. Could you imagine if we decided against the tail emission and then years later realized we needed to hard fork it in? That would have been a complete disaster.
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So this year is proving to be rather interesting. We are witnessing the end of the petro dollar and quite possibly the beginnings of a hyperinflation event. Additionally, we are starting to see food shortages in the US, particularly in meat products. This is reflected in reduced availability, increased prices, and buying restrictions that have popped up long after the "COVID-19" measures were implemented back in March. It's also worth mentioning that consumer staples are generally the LAST products to be affected by inflation, which means you're less likely to notice any discrepancies during your weekly grocery store visits. Don't get caught with your pants down, and don't assume this bubbling of the stock market represents any kind of value-add to the economy. Shares are likely increasing only due to the rapidly eroding buying power of fiat.
Because of this, I no longer think it's wise to track Monero prices in USD or other fiat currencies. Moving forward I'm only concerned with its value measured in precious metals or maybe soft commodities like coffee or cotton. We've sat around for the last two years waiting for some action in the crypto space but this year we're in for a hell of a lot more than we bargained for.
My short-to-medium-term prediction is that stocks and precious metals will continue to rise due to the eroding USD and shaky market confidence, respectively. Many investors will continue to remain in cash, but as businesses begin to reopen it will become painfully clear how much the purchasing power of their fed notes has deteriorated. Further, surviving businesses will likely be in considerable debt with lost time to make up for, and will pass on the costs of these obligations to their customers. This will lead to a transition of capital into the precious metals market, with silver seeing the bulk of that movement, perhaps even returning to its historical 1/15th price ratio to that of gold. Savvy investors looking for other opportunities to side-step the inflation will see crypto currencies as the natural "location-independent" alternative to precious metals.
Monero is currently traded at roughly 4X the spot price of silver. I see that ratio doubling to 8X by end of year or sooner. That would put us at around $480 if we see silver hit $60 in the coming months, but again I expect fiat prices to become increasingly meaningless.
And here we go. As I said previously, don't be distracted by crypto prices measured in USD. Fiat is meaningless at this point. For example, take a look at the current silver chart: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FVXUpH3t.png&t=665&c=DSd2BjFRNJbATQ) Do you think everything is really going "up" or is something else happening? BTC is "rising" in lockstep with precious metals... XMR is lagging a bit behind, but we know how that story goes by now. So far we haven't seen drastic price increases for general goods, but I don't imagine things will stay that way for long. In the end, I'll continue to measure XMR's value in terms of the things I'd wish to exchange it for. One more thing. There is currently a coin "shortage" in the US which is conveniently pushing businesses away from accepting cash. This sudden disappearance of cash leads me to believe we are headed towards a bail-in or some similar form of wealth trap that would otherwise result in a bank run. Our emergency exits are quietly being eliminated, and I would be very concerned about any funds resting in a checking/savings/brokerage account.
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So this year is proving to be rather interesting. We are witnessing the end of the petro dollar and quite possibly the beginnings of a hyperinflation event. Additionally, we are starting to see food shortages in the US, particularly in meat products. This is reflected in reduced availability, increased prices, and buying restrictions that have popped up long after the "COVID-19" measures were implemented back in March. It's also worth mentioning that consumer staples are generally the LAST products to be affected by inflation, which means you're less likely to notice any discrepancies during your weekly grocery store visits. Don't get caught with your pants down, and don't assume this bubbling of the stock market represents any kind of value-add to the economy. Shares are likely increasing only due to the rapidly eroding buying power of fiat.
Because of this, I no longer think it's wise to track Monero prices in USD or other fiat currencies. Moving forward I'm only concerned with its value measured in precious metals or maybe soft commodities like coffee or cotton. We've sat around for the last two years waiting for some action in the crypto space but this year we're in for a hell of a lot more than we bargained for.
My short-to-medium-term prediction is that stocks and precious metals will continue to rise due to the eroding USD and shaky market confidence, respectively. Many investors will continue to remain in cash, but as businesses begin to reopen it will become painfully clear how much the purchasing power of their fed notes has deteriorated. Further, surviving businesses will likely be in considerable debt with lost time to make up for, and will pass on the costs of these obligations to their customers. This will lead to a transition of capital into the precious metals market, with silver seeing the bulk of that movement, perhaps even returning to its historical 1/15th price ratio to that of gold. Savvy investors looking for other opportunities to side-step the inflation will see crypto currencies as the natural "location-independent" alternative to precious metals.
Monero is currently traded at roughly 4X the spot price of silver. I see that ratio doubling to 8X by end of year or sooner. That would put us at around $480 if we see silver hit $60 in the coming months, but again I expect fiat prices to become increasingly meaningless.
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If Bitcoin continues to linger in this range alts will start to see action. Could happen any time now. Monero led the wave in 2016 that Bitcoin eventually followed, but this time it might be the other way around if impatient Bitcoin speculators begin pouring into alts. Don't forget there may only be a few alts to choose from if you're using a US exchange.
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We already know that Cointelegraph is owned by the Bytecoin/Minergate/Changelly/CoinMarketCap people. Why entertain their drivel?
To be honest, I tend to forget which interest owns which popup faux news sites now, there are just too many. i need a easy to referance chart. That would be a nice thread i would think. So is there a thread on Bytecoin/Minergate/Changelly/CoinMarketCap connections. i remember Bytecoin/Cointelegraph and Minergate/Bytecoin being connected in a thread somewhere but I didn't know about the others, is this conjecture or do you have some links. Aren't these same russians connected to coinhive. My memory just keeps getting worse. ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) I'm not sure if there was ever a thread on it, but for a while the connections were explicitly advertised on sites themselves ("brought to you by Minergate"). I never could figure out why it seemed they wanted you to know who was behind it. There were other instances on reddit where service developers (Freewallet maybe) claimed to "know" the Minergate people, which in my mind is a dead giveaway because nobody knows them but them. Eventually they realized the association is bad for business, because both Changelly and HitBTC removed all mentions of affiliation with Minergate. A few other connections were made obvious through the use of blatant cross promotion (Chainradar, Freewallet), or by reusing the same HTML boilerplate on landing pages. In the case of Cointelegraph, one of its authors came forward talked about the sites connections with Bytecoin. Needless to say, there's never been a shortage of clues. Shortly after Monero.how was sold, Changelly advertisements began appearing on the front page. Coincidence? ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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We already know that Cointelegraph is owned by the Bytecoin/Minergate/Changelly/CoinMarketCap people. Why entertain their drivel?
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This is the pain and FUD we've been waiting for. I predict we will hit a new USD ATH within 90 days. That means end of September.
Still on target! Reasons for XMR to potentially to overtake BTC. I'm not predicting this just throwing out reasons why it could happen.
1. Pure stupidity of crypto markets i.e. anything is possible. e.g. Verge could overtake BTC. 2. Tail reward comes to forefront as a confidence crisis over stability 3. On-chain fungibility advantage recognized as crucial 4. RandomX is a huge success (large and widely-distributed mining network becomes a clear advantage, contributing to a confidence flip) 5. Flexible blocksize results in significantly better on-chain scalability without a bloat explosion that destroys decentralization.
#2 appears to be more of an inevitability than a possibility.
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This is the pain and FUD we've been waiting for. I predict we will hit a new USD ATH within 90 days. That means end of September.
It won't matter for most of us if it's still down vs BTC, cos most of us bought XMR with BTC. I'm actually down a lot tbh. It would've been way better for me if I just held BTC. So you're saying if Monero hit $10k USD it wouldn't matter because you would've made more by staying in BTC? By that logic you will never be satisfied with your investments, because there will always be something you could've done to gain more profit.
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This is the pain and FUD we've been waiting for. I predict we will hit a new USD ATH within 90 days. That means end of September.
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XMR hits USD 100 and nobody saying anything?! Come on people
+1 4u but... We are back to valuing in BTC. ![Tongue](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/tongue.gif) Not sure about you, but I buy my lambos with dollars. Joking aside, isn't it a bit ironic how many of us here (not everyone) believe XMR to be superior to BTC, yet use BTC to measure XMR's value? Not that USD is necessarily better, but it makes the most sense as a "real world" equivalent value comparison.
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People buy XMR with bitcoins, not dollars. That chart isn't so cheerful.
First of all, XMR has plenty of of USD transactions. Here are the two "reputable" exchanges that offer USD pairs: Kraken XMR/USD volume: $536,000 Kraken XMR/XBT volume: $830,000 Bitfinex XMR/USD volume: $846,000 Bitfinex XMR/BTC volume: $557,000 And yes, there's Binance and other reputable non-USD exchanges that do millions in BTC volume, but you have no idea how much of those trades are real. Secondly, just because more people trade with BTC, that doesn't mean they're not watching USD charts or are unaware of the USD price.
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Long ago it was decided that Monero would take an alternative route, wherein having those wheels available to prevent the bicycle from falling over is good, and the tradeoff of having an infinite supply of monero is acceptable.
If by "acceptable" you mean "bloody awesome" then I agree with you! If only we had an exponentially increasing supply, say one percent or so, then we'd really be cookin'! Do even mature economies not grow by at least one percent per year?
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Looks like the trolls are finally out. We may be back in the black by December.
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Cointelegraph (owned by Minergate) is not in good standing with the community. I wonder why the owner of xmrwallet.com would choose to advertise there of all places... It probably still reach a lot of people, which is good to attract new people to get to know Monero. [edited: 1740 views of this article until now, which is not really a big number IMO] Probably better then other media news. And of course in the end it all comes to price. Maybe Cointelegraph has lower theirs due to smaller demand. Anyway, good to see development on making using Monero easier for average user and on increasing it's utility. My suspicion is they didn't pay for advertising at all, because they're part of the same organization. Honest community members wouldn't want to have anything to do with Cointelegraph (let alone pay for the association) unless they are new and completely unaware of its history. EDIT: The Bytecoin/Minergate devs can't help but out themselves. It's like they're winking at us, in some kind of ego-driven need to let us know they're still here. I've never understood it but it fascinates me.
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Cointelegraph (owned by Minergate) is not in good standing with the community. I wonder why the owner of xmrwallet.com would choose to advertise there of all places...
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That is a useful site https://onchainfx.com/On the right side of the site, can be selected more useful measurements. For example. Num Active Addresses (24h) Num transactions (24h) And a lot more. Saw this in tweeter also. How the fuck are they tracking number of active addresses in Moreno? They're probably just counting all the stealth addresses used over a 24 hour period. Go figure, they're all unique.
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Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.
![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fimgs.xkcd.com%2Fcomics%2Fextrapolating.png&t=665&c=zHVP-a_xtdbWPw)
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The fear in this thread is beautiful. How are you taking advantage of the great crypto crash of 2018?
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