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1  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: sports betting - football/soccer on: April 03, 2023, 08:09:03 AM
I've been busy the past few days as I am working on a project and something came up.

greetings everyone!

new here. over 600.000 predictions made in the past decade with decent win rate. will try to predict any football/soccer match (prediction examples: winner, number of goals, corners, cards, HT/FT, etc; however not all type of predictions for every match you might request). can present summary for each prediction.

awaiting challenges. Cheesy
Okay, in weekend will be a big match in Germany, Bayern - Borussia, waiting on your prediction!  Grin

Bayern - Dortmund was a beast of a match. Really sorry I could not be here in time to give my thoughts on it.

There are already topics with lots of posts about match predictions but it doesn't hurt to have a dedicated thread as it's sometimes hard to catch up on those mega threads. You probably have more experience than me so I'd love to see how you will perform. You'll probably get some haters or critics here and some may even ask for proof of your experience but you can ignore them. Just keep on posting.

In fact, there are numerous prediction/betting threads, most of which are football.

I've been thinking here....
Nobody ever thought of creating some kind of tournament?
Take one of the main football championships in Europe and for each match users publish their bets (it cannot be just guesses, you need to prove that the bet was actually made) and at the end of the tournament who has the most hits or the most points (you have to think in some scoring rule) would win the prize.

This prize could be sponsored by someone or by some casinos, or even an entry fee could be charged to anyone who wanted to sign up.

There are such contests around the internet. On a personal note, I would say "why limit a contest to X competition/league/cup?". I can understand that for example Premier League, LaLiga or Bundesliga are highly watched, tracked, etc. but maybe someone likes for example Serie A more, or Ligue 1. Things would get more interesting imo if the contest itself would be about final odds and not the competitions themselves.
2  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: sports betting - football/soccer on: March 28, 2023, 08:50:46 PM
matches finished, results posted below.

Kosovo - Andorra [ over 0.5 goals in 1st half @1.35 ]
Scotland - Spain [ Spain @1.60 ]
Turkey - Croatia [ Croatia @2.30 ]
Wales - Latvia [ over 0.5 goals for Wales in 1st half @1.50 ]


well, it seems, your prediction missed again.
I beg to differ, 50% is not bad considering the 2.30 odd was nailed safely.

By the way, in a few days the European Leagues will be rolled out again soon. I want to know your predictions for European teams.  so, we will wait for you.
as I stated when I started this post, please input your match requests here and I'll try to do my best. if you can post the matches 1 day ahead, that would be awesome.

Sportsbet is the favourite one because of the soccer involved in that gamble bet.As compared to the normal gambling like slot games,the betting is purely based on luck on that day.But soccer can be predicted by the players of two teams.If one of the team had Lionel Messi,So we can blindly keep the Messi without hesitation.As to the results 99 percentage of Messi matches was in top standard.So Messi will get you some good winnings in one day.But in slot game it’s totally different one.The slot game is based on RNG,but sportsbet is purely based on the knowledge you occur from the matches you watched before.The winner is based on the goals scored by the selected team members and performance of the player,if he is from the defence background.

not sure what you mean. you mentioned "slot game" and this has nothing to do with sports betting (football/soccer).

regarding Messi, I presume the last match PSG had with Rennes is part of the 1% right? Smiley jokes aside, truth be told Messi and CR7 are talents the sport gives every few decades.
3  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: sports betting - football/soccer on: March 28, 2023, 06:39:27 PM
almost late so will keep the post short and on point.

Kosovo - Andorra [ over 0.5 goals in 1st half @1.35 ]
Scotland - Spain [ Spain @1.60 ]
Turkey - Croatia [ Croatia @2.30 ]
Wales - Latvia [ over 0.5 goals for Wales in 1st half @1.50 ]




*Again I will mention that this is not a financial advice and that you are entirely responsible in regards to any decision you might take about the posted matches above.
4  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: sports betting - football/soccer on: March 28, 2023, 09:40:33 AM
confirming the red results unfortunately.

Netherlands 3 - 0 Gibraltar

Poland 1 -0 Albania

appreciate you've posted your thoughts. now allow me to post mine.

I've noticed that in both cases you took recent stats into consideration. that is what bettors in general do. however, a more important aspect to be considered imo is the match weight (what do they win on a win) and also the opponent gap (difference between home team - away team). going further, Netherlands did not managed to score more than 4 goals indeed, however their match was against Gibraltar. moreover, stats show a 72% possession which translates to - they had the ball for 80 minutes out of the total 90. 49 goal attempts, 11 shots on goal, 22 shots off goal, 19 corner kicks. show me another match in football/soccer history with similar stats (+/- 5% tops), that ended 3-0. I can bet you right now you won't find more than 5, in a history spanning 50+ years. also quite clear with those stats that Gibraltar had close to 0% in scoring any goals. bottom line is the fact that Netherlands should have netted more goals, the math behind this statement is there.

in regards to Poland vs Albania, I will agree with you that Albania played very well their defensive tactics, especially on Poland's star, Lewandowski. in terms of stats, Poland was at best 5-6% over Albania as the stats of the match are pretty squared. I've mostly based my prediction on two elements: Lewa's presence in the lineup + Albania's ability to score 1 goal against Italy. I considered that Albania will manage to score 1 goal, and this meant "by default" that Poland will need to go for at least 2 goals. match proved to be quite balanced and ended up on 1-0 for Poland.

any match has difficulties in predicting it, however as you could probably notice in many cases teams let us by. it was so the cases with Portugal, Netherlands and even Poland to an extent. in essence, sports betting is nothing but a fun social way of upping the emotional stakes of a viewing experience. or at least that is how I see it. Smiley

would you like to post one or more matches from today's Euro qualifying round? maybe even prediction(s) for the match(es). I'll upload mine in about 4 hours from now, still can't decide which of the 4 I have shortlisted should be posted.
5  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: sports betting - football/soccer on: March 27, 2023, 09:46:19 AM
had a few days off. enjoyed a lot of results this past weekend, hope you guys did too.


Nonetheless, I would personally like if you (or other people considering to open a similar thread like this one) could provide some math on their efficacy on predictions and sport-betting, as well as some small proof they have been in sport-betting as long as they claim.

Yeah I agree with you on this very one and you atleast ought to show us some lroves of the 600 thousand bets you claimed to have placed in previous times because that will go a very long way to build ones confidence and trust in you and your predictions because over the time, we've seen some persons come out with claims of longer gears in betting and predictions and just end up giving us mess, please don't get me wrong and I do appreciate your work and I will be looking out for this thread.
Op also mentioned not to get his reward from forum members and I hope that stands for long as this thread is active and not behave like others who claimed their predictions were free but ended up asking people to join some private telegram group and make some payment but I trust op will be different.

QueenVera (& Hispo as well as others), I have the feeling we're not on the same page here. you guys asked me to "prove" my past experience, while I tried to explain to you that in this day in age there's no proofed way through which I could do that. I could post here some predictions I've made in the 2014-2015-2016-2017-2018,etc timeline. and? even if I would post those past predictions, either as text from a database, or images, people could still come and claim that the data is altered/edited/manipulated, etc. therefore I come again with the basic question - how could I prove my experience to you?

secondly, I have started this post on my own, for the challenges I was expecting to get from it. not for profit. not to prove anyone anything. I did claimed to have over 600k predictions under my belt with a decent win rate. still up until now, no one has taken the post as it was meant, and thereby place a match or multiple matches here as a request for a prediction(s). I can understand the level of uncertainty yet no one has tested me so far, right? instead of asking for proof (which again, imo can simply not be provided even if we include blockchain's immutability on the table), you could simply post 2, 3, 5, 10 matches. I'll do my best to give you a prediction on those and I guess afterwards things would move forward. or not. Smiley

I don't understand what you mean by this.

harapan, in direct comparison to the (casino) gambling world, in sports betting there are no guaranteed statistical odds set against you. this implies directly the fact that sport betting is skill based more than gambling. and I would like to add a question here for you: is stock/crypto investment gambling?

Italy - England [ over 8.5 corners @1.85 ]
Portugal - Lichtenstein [ over 5.5 goals @1.65 ]

just as I suspected, Portugal did not have the precision to score the 6 goals needed, even though they had 11 shots on target against Lichtenstein. the other prediction was an easy win, and also a very good odd for 9 corners per game. moving further.

I didn't watch this match, but in theory Portugal should be able to score more than 4 goals. because, these two squads have a very obvious gap. Portugal is ranked 9th, while Lichtenstein is ranked 198th. So, these two teams have a very significant gap. and if I refer to the available statistics, Portugal has a lot of opportunities. recorded, they had 35 total shots, 11 of which were on target, 13 shots off target, 11 shots blocked. with this statistical data, Portugal should be able to score more than 6 goals.

Apart from that, it seems that one thing has escaped your consideration, that this match is Portugal's first match. that is, the players need adjustments to the other players. plus, their new coach. however, the results could have been different if the coach had included Gocalo Ramos, after Ronaldo scored in the 63rd minute.

But at least, another bet is as you would expect for the over corner from Italy - England.

you summarized things flawlessly. Smiley I would however argue on the fact that it was Portugal's first match in the qualification campaign for Euro 2024. imo Portugal had something more similar to a training match opportunity against Lichtenstein, and based on the huge amounts of occasions they should have scored a higher number of goals with ease. I did mentioned that I am not bullish on the prediction itself but decided to publish it anyway. in a match with a higher stake and where possibly goals would matter in the standings, I am quite sure Portugal would have scored even double the goals they scored in that match. As for Italy - England, things were peachy! Cheesy


Adding two selections for today:
Poland - Albania [ Poland to score over 1.5 goals @1.80 ]
Netherlands - Gibraltar [ over 5.5 goals @1.50 ]

I expect for Poland to score at least 2 goals against Albania, especially after they lost with Czech Republic.
Netherlands were also beaten by France so they should in theory consider the match against Gibraltar an opportunity to benchmark their potential.

*Again I will mention that this is not a financial advice and that you are entirely responsible in regards to any decision you might take about the posted matches above.
6  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: sports betting - football/soccer on: March 24, 2023, 12:08:25 PM
Italy - England [ over 8.5 corners @1.85 ]
Portugal - Lichtenstein [ over 5.5 goals @1.65 ]

just as I suspected, Portugal did not have the precision to score the 6 goals needed, even though they had 11 shots on target against Lichtenstein. the other prediction was an easy win, and also a very good odd for 9 corners per game. moving further.
7  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: sports betting - football/soccer on: March 23, 2023, 01:09:20 PM
Off to a bad start hehe. I lost that one too but that's fine. What do you have next?

indeed a bad start. I was a bit shocked on the results as I've tried recovering the loss from the 1st match with the 2nd one as they were scheduled at different hours. ended up losing more. life goes on. Smiley

before posting the matches I am focused on today I would like to remind you and anyone else for that matter, that in case you would like predictions for a specific match you can input the match here without a problem. that was the main purpose of the post, for users who interact to come with the challenges so to speak. it doesn't matter when the match is scheduled or from what competition. of course, I am not 24/7 here so maybe post it with a few hours before it starts. Cheesy

Italy - England [ over 8.5 corners @1.85 ]
Portugal - Lichtenstein [ over 5.5 goals @1.65 ]

The confrontation between Italy and England will as always be one of a high level. At the same time, both teams are highly tactical, so imo betting on corners would be the best bet here. Regarding Portugal, they are lucky to have an easy match (in theory) against Lichtenstein. It's rumored that CR7 has announced his availability for the match and he does want to up his stats for his national team. I will admit that "asking" Portugal to net 6 goals against Lichtenstein might be a bit difficult in comparison to the odd that bookies give for this event but decided to go with it eventually.


*Again I will mention that this is not a financial advice and that you are entirely responsible in regards to any decision you might take about the posted matches above.
8  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: sports betting - football/soccer on: March 23, 2023, 12:48:58 PM
I have seen a few of this kind of thread but I think ignoring them is best for as I have this perception about people's predictions as invalid, because I don't see any special features that differentiate you from every other human and I have this believe that gambling is actually a game of luck and no one is too smart or too brilliant to actually gather fix predictions successful without experiencing any lost in their predictions.

appreciate your input. not judging, but based on your logic, there is literally 0 difference between a person who has sold TV's for 10 years vs a person who has started selling TV's a month ago. I personally beg to differ. you also stated that "gambling is actually a game of luck" and that as a general statement might be true. however sports betting has been around humans for the past 2.000 years, and basically represents the backbone of trading. I wouldn't mix it with other gambling activities like for example slots, craps, roulette, etc. and of course, democracy so have no problem with you ignoring the post. Smiley

What is your purpose for creating this thread to offer gamblers your predicted results to get them to use them and pay you?
The gamblers here consist of many people who are sports fans or sports observers and of course can predict sports matches themselves because everyone already has insight, so there is no need to use other people's predictions or what you offer to bet.
We as gamblers are also required to be able to do our own analysis and predictions so that in the future we are not too dependent on other people because in gambling usually someone will be addicted and bet for a long time so that knowledge and insight can be obtained. is very important here.

I don't have any intentions of getting any compensations from people on this forum. it's just something I felt doing, similar to going for a walk for example. rest assured that I will assume my results over time. in my personal opinion, gamblers & sports bettors might intersect, but at the same time often are different people. I do however agree that every sport bettor should be able to carry his own analysis for the bets he/she plays. again, I never claimed to have any crystal globe or anything like this. don't see the reason why you brought addiction into discussion, but will add that it's a huge problem and those that face it should require proper help and distance themselves from temptations.
9  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: sports betting - football/soccer on: March 23, 2023, 12:28:33 PM
but there is a question from me, will you also predict the english league?

purpose of the post was for me to offer my predictions to any match other user(s) might request. as for the Premier League, that's one of the top interests among sports betting fans. if you have any particular requests, just post them here. also huge thanks for the positive welcome. Smiley
10  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: sports betting - football/soccer on: March 22, 2023, 09:30:08 PM
Casdinyard, no need to implore. I've stated above why posting "evidence" is pointless as anything can be manipulated these days.

the math behind the first match has nothing to do with the result. excluding the goal, France had 4 shots on target in the 1st half, and only 2 in the 2nd half. still 6 extra shots to score against Northern Ireland. another vertical to be considered, France had 6 corners while Northern Ireland had 5. a match with good numbers overall, except for the score table where almost nothing happened.

for the 2nd match stats were even worse. England had 2 shots on target beside the goal they scored, 1 shot in each half. there were 11 corners in total and for some weird reason 7 minutes of extra time.

France U19 - Northern Ireland U19 [ over 3.5 goals @2.05 ] (final score 1-0)
England U19 - Hungary U19 [ over 3.5 goals @2.00 ] (final score 1-0)

interesting how 2 matches with favorites having under 1.20 odd to win had each only 1 goal scored. moving further.
11  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: sports betting - football/soccer on: March 22, 2023, 04:54:53 PM
appreciate all you guys for your inputs. I must admit, I am not very familiar with using the form, like using quotes or tagging users. will try to keep up with any potential predictions that I post here in order to keep things as clean as possible, and this includes formatting of course. will try to improve over time with using the form on quotes and things like this. Cheesy

I'm not into tipsters contests or anything like this. have some things on my own and attending those businesses take a considerable chunk of my time & attention.
12  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: sports betting - football/soccer on: March 22, 2023, 09:42:28 AM
when you average the number on a daily basis it gets you somewhere indeed, however mostly at least in the past 8 years I've preferred live betting sessions. at the same time, most of the matches are scheduled during the weekend, therefore Friday-Sunday runs. probably my longest betting session during a weekend was close to around 30 hours. so getting back to the 12-15 average / day, that's totally offset as I've had loads of weekends with hundreds of bets placed, even some with thousands.

could not provide a precise winning % even if I wanted to. about 300k predictions I have stored and tracked, and for those the win rate would be in the 60%+, without taking in consideration correct score predictions as those are close to impossible, more like luck bets.

the odds I usually like playing are within the 1.80-2.20 range but it depends on multiple variables as I described in my previous reply on the post. I won't disconsider an event that has a say 1.40 odd, however will get quite mad losing on that. Cheesy overall the mindset is "play to win" not "play the odd" or "play Messi" or "play Chelsea" etc.

between pre-match & live betting I will always go for live betting. there's no level of comparison from multiple points of view, but it also depends a lot on the bookmaker/platform.
13  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: sports betting - football/soccer on: March 22, 2023, 09:07:44 AM
Thanks to those that welcomed me and rest assured I will keep my posts within the platform guidelines. The purpose of the post is a mix between education & entertainment.

In regards to request on proofs, imo not much proof can be provided by anyone that claims to have experience with match predictions. The best proof is a test run on multiple matches over the course of several days, maybe even weeks. Those results speak more than any screenshot, as images today can easily be edited. Should I mention I've had pre-match bet on Real Madrid when they played on Anfield against Liverpool? Should I mentioned I've staked more, again on Real Madrid when Liverpool had 2-0 from the 14th minute? What value would those claims have? Or a screenshot with the bets for that matter. For this reason I was requesting potential challenges, basically matches for which users would be interested to see my opinion on.

As for the math behind analysis, again I believe each bettor has their own strategies. There are literally tens of variables that mix up in the decision, from sentimental value to X or Y team or even a particular player or more for that matter, up to weather, up to team mental state, the referee that will keep the match in place, the stakes as is it a battle for a certain position in a league or is it a cup event in which one of the teams get to be eliminated, and so on. What I can say on this is that through my course in the sports betting world I've learned that there are cases where it's best to make a decision based on few elements, and there are cases when you need to consider more elements in order to make a decision. The key metrics that tell me which case I have in front of me when looking at a scheduled match is a mixture between stake of the match and odds offered by 2-3 bookmakers. Odds are basically a particular metric that dictates how the market is moving, but at the same time they are benchmarks on the match outcome in many cases.

Ultimately there is another highly important aspect in regards to the odds of a match, depending on the bet that you take in consideration of course. Most of the bettors out there stake the odds, it doesn't matter we're talking about 1 match or multiple matches on an accumulator/combo ticket. I think like this when ever placing a bet, at least in the past 7-8 years: don't play the odds, play the win. If you want to place a 100 units (EUR, USD, etc) bet on a match for which say over 2.5 goals offers you a 1.6 odd, but notice another match where maybe over 1.5 goals offers you a 1.5 odd, and in your personal opinion, the 1.5 goals might be 10-20% easier to be attained, then bet on the 1.5 odd. Don't let greed overcome your judgement to place on the 1.6 odd just because you would win 10 more units.

Since no one has placed any match requests, I would like to add 2 matches I've been considering for today (22.03.2023):

France U19 - Northern Ireland U19 [ over 3.5 goals @2.05 ]
England U19 - Hungary U19 [ over 3.5 goals @2.00 ]

In both cases the favorites play at home and it's their first match in the qualification stage. At the same time, both France and England have opponents with which they can register high scored goals results. A safer run would be to clock both games for over 2.5 goals each, however lower odds of course. Will rest the analysis here.

*Would also mention that this is not a financial advice and that you are entirely responsible in regards to any decision you might take about the posted matches above.
14  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: sports betting - football/soccer on: March 21, 2023, 12:33:50 PM
imo, a gambler is a gambler while a sports bettor is a sports bettor. they can however be one and the same person, but what I am trying to emphasize is the fact that sports betting after a certain degree of experience is not gambling anymore.

as for Messi and Ronaldo, there have always been great legends, as in any sport for that matter. not quite sure what you meant by "Most of the predictions was made using this two players involved games as compared to other games" as both Messi & Ronaldo are two individual players who played for various football clubs and of course for their national teams. like for example, what does Messi or Ronaldo to do with the match between say Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund?

football is by far the king of sports, world wide. and this can easily be proven by stats generated compared to other sports, even up to the financials involved.

what I wanted to my post is to offer people with predictions as surely there are some that search for them. of course, everything is optional as I could not offer a detailed analysis for any match given, however will do my best in regards to the predictions. I don't have a crystal globe but I do have a significant amount of experience. if you have any particular match in mind, feel free to post it here.
15  Economy / Gambling discussion / Re: why people promote gambling sites . on: March 21, 2023, 09:49:38 AM
you mentioned 90% will lose in anything gambling related. I would first argue the percentage but that would be a different topic. instead I will ask you this: why 90% lose? here are a few reasons:
1. lack of bankroll management
2. lack of experience
3. lack of strategy in execution

there are cases of successful gambling stories, right? some dude is a millionaire playing blackjack. how did he do that? by understanding bankroll management, financial management. by taking a boat load of blackjack hands, improving his experience in making decisions and of course by finetuning & mastering various strategies. are there people that made millions in poker? Daniel Negreanu might be a good reply on this one. how did he do that? well bankroll management, experience, strategy, etc.

long story short, most of the people that go down the gambling rabbit hole want the "get rich over night" shortcut, however as any other valuable thing in life, winning is something hard to achieve. and that is why, indeed, the majority lose.

as for the "without telling them the terms and conditions" in regards to first deposit bonus, I mean come on now. say you've won $100k and you want to invest that into stocks, ETFs, investment fund or something similar. does the broker spill out the "terms and conditions" for you? 100% not. however he will for sure be happy to clout to his friends/colleagues about netting you into the firm an thus earning his commission. the decision of depositing balance into an account on a gambling website belongs to the user 100%. therefore the responsibility to understand the terms and conditions as well as how bonuses operate belongs to him.

regarding influencers, imo and without any form of disrespect, they are nothing but tools. imagine for example the classic marketing billboards. that's influencers now. a billboard that can speak and maybe do stuff. however their essence is the ability to attract attention, therefore they can be used to market businesses. may it be gambling or otherwise. a perfect example, even though he's not an influencer as per say, would be the move of Cristiano Ronaldo to Juventus. how many shirts has Juve sold? then to Manchester United and now to All Nassr. again in both cases, how many shirt have those teams sold? how much did their social profiles grew after he joined the teams? and so on.

in the end you requested opinions on "what type of many people are, like greedy, only thinking themselves and their family, egoistic, thinking in a bad way, just trying to keep everyone down, or people are good". my personal opinion is that there are many characters out there, from egoistic to altruistic and beyond. at the end of the day, it matters for you to climb one more stair on the ladder of life. the fact that the stair you've climbed is financial, or helpful to other(s), matters less. at the same time, for the past 2.000 years, not many have turned water into wine, or fed five thousand people or other things like this. in fact, no one did such things. however for the past 2.000 years or so, people have been gambling. Wink
16  Economy / Gambling discussion / sports betting - football/soccer on: March 21, 2023, 09:12:53 AM
greetings everyone!

new here. over 600.000 predictions made in the past decade with decent win rate. will try to predict any football/soccer match (prediction examples: winner, number of goals, corners, cards, HT/FT, etc; however not all type of predictions for every match you might request). can present summary for each prediction.

awaiting challenges. Cheesy
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