Well, well, well.

Part 1 was very close if you squint your eyes a bit, but part 2 turned out to be dead on the money.

So.  I hope everyone is enjoying this consolidation/correction and picking up some cheap coins.

Funnily enough, looking back on the first half of this prediction, I'm going to call it "pretty damn close".  In other words, I got the broad strokes right, so far.

Instead of $75-80k in 6 weeks, it was more like "62k in 8 weeks, then a weird flat period where it hit 65k around the 13 week mark".  Not exactly "nailed it", but if the second half of my prediction is right, is that $10k difference really going to seem so significant?

The idea of a moderate peak in price sometime in the late winter/spring and then cool-off period through the summer is indeed exactly what seems to be happening.  Now the important part, where the rubber meets the road later this year.  Are you ready?

Where are you getting those numbers?  That's a lot more than the $1.2 billion codebear cited.

I'm coming around a bit more to the "slow grind" theory, BUT we are still currently in a parabolic uptrend.  If that support line stays intact and the rally keeps accelerating, it could become very unsustainable in the short to mid term.  We shall see.

$1.2 billion in Bitcoin in India vs. potentially ~$25 billion coming in from US stimmy checks... https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/stimulus-checks-bitcoin-btc-stock-market-outlook-mizuho-says-2021-3-1030207913

People seem to think that either an indicator is a sure thing or it's worthless, which is a very silly argument.  Nothing is a sure thing, it's a game of percentage probabilities and educated guesses.  Obviously no one of these indicators is foolproof or close to it, which is why I'm looking for at least 80% of them indicating a top, before I am confident that it's not a big mistake to take some profits.

adaseb has a great one!  I've thought about that a lot too and it should probably be on the list.

I think we're on the same page...obviously none of this is 100% but it's fun to speculate and see what happens.  No matter what, if you're interested in taking some profit in USD, and you do so based on 4 out of 5 of those indicators going off, in my opinion you can't be making too huge of a mistake by selling some at that time.  It's nigh impossible to catch the exact top of any given wave but you shouldn't be too far off if those conditions are met.

Sorry about the other links, I think they should be fixed now  And yes, PentarhUdii was once known as "masterluc" here on this forum.

Once again, these indicators are not intended to predict a top.  They are useful for identifying when a top may have occurred.

I think it may be in 1-2 months, with another rally possible toward the end of the year depending on how high it goes, but that doesn't really matter.  The point of using these indicators is not to predict when the top is going to happen, it's to help determine when it has happened.

I'm not discounting institutional investors at all, they are what got us to this point.  By and large they are smart(er) money and for the most part I think they've already gotten in at lower prices.  Going forward the steepest part of the parabolic run and blow-off top will be driven by retail FOMO following on the heels of those institutional investors, because there simply aren't any coins left to sell on retail exchanges.  I firmly believe there will be more institutions selling than buying at, say, $150K, IF the price has just doubled in the past two weeks.  They're not stupid.

Hello all,
So I thought I would put together a handy guide to top indicators and how to call the top in this Bitcoin bull run.  Here are my personal 5 criteria that I think are relevant for calling a top.  If Bitcoin satisfies 4 out of 5 of these criteria, I will be comfortable in calling a top.

1. Price of Bitcoin approximately doubles within two weeks.  This is a simple one.  Two weekly candles with a doubling in price from wick to wick is historically a solid indicator that we've hit the top.

2.  Bitcoin dominance falls into the 30-40% range amid a face-melting altcoin rally.  https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/CRYPTOCAP-BTC.D/
This happened in 2017 and I do believe it will happen again as retail investors scramble to gobble up anything with a whiff of "crypto" to it.

3. At least one long-term logarithmic target is hit, summed up very well by MasterLuc's latest post: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/zzbhCPLm-Long-term-targets-approaching/

4. Pi Cycle top indicator crosses.  https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/

5. Monthly Mayer Multiple exceeds 2.4 for at least one month. https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mayer-multiple/

These are my personal favorite ones but feel free to share yours, and enjoy the spoils of this historic bull run my friends!

The TradingView bullshit technical indicator thing has now flipped from 'buy' to 'neutral'.  The last time this happened it was an extremely bullish indicator.  Let's go!!!

The correction in January was 30%, this one so far is 22%.  I see $42k as quite likely, with anything above $35k remaining uber bullish.  I don't believe we will have more than 1, maybe 2 weeks of red here.

So.  It's been 6 weeks today and obviously we are not quite in range of $70-80k yet, but I'm happy I was correct on the general direction.  Currently sitting just below the ATH of ~$52,500.

In the last 6 weeks a lot of things have crystallized and become more clear about this 2021 bull run, though the future remains anything but certain.  So far, judging by the speed and trajectory, it is somewhere between the steep run-up in the first half of 2013, and the slower grind upwards throughout 2017.

One thing is reasonably for sure, this upward momentum is far from over, and it's starting to look like although we're not at $80k yet, we may hit $100k much sooner than I originally thought.  One clue for this can be found in altcoins.  Take LTC for example, which is now sitting at about 65% of its ATH.  I would be absolutely shocked if BTC tops out in this bull cycle with LTC not making a new ATH.  I would put that possibility at less than 10%, and furthermore I find it extremely unlikely that LTC would not hit at least $1k before BTC peaks, probably much higher.  Other strong alts are also sitting below ATH, with ETH only recently passing its old high.

Another piece of the puzzle is the growing institutional FOMO, and then there are more stimmy checks coming probably late March in the US.  All in all I can see upward pressure pushing us through an insane March and April, with $100k easily on the table. 

I agree, the price could never go 2% higher than it is right now.  Bull run is over, sell your coins to me please.

I think you misunderstood me my friend.  My original prediction was for $70-80k 6 weeks from when I posted this on January 7th.  That would put it at 10 days from now, on Feb. 18th.  Not impossible, but not terribly likely either.  I think it may take one or two more weeks.  If that happens, I do believe the market might enter a consolidation phase without breaking the ATH again until October-ish.  But after that, $200k would not be impossible.

LOL, on a serious note.  I did accumulate a significant amount during that 3-week dip, and also diversified more heavily into ETH (sorry guys) once I saw that ETH/BTC broke a big resistance level.  It appears we have now achieved liftoff.

Man, this is the weirdest bear market I've ever seen.  Huh.  I guess I'll just keep hodling. 

I'm sorry people, I let you down.  It looks like my prediction will happen one or two weeks later than expected.  Once again, I'm terribly sorry.