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Update: consensus predictions are rising if you check that link in OP
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No general consensus, only the two parties in the last trade did consent. Edit: Actually, the buyer valued the bitcoins higher than the last price, and the seller valued it lower.
Some of the supply and demand curves you can see in the order books on the bourses. The rest of the aggregated demand and supply is in the heads of the market actors, which are all of humanity.
This is general market dynamics, everybody should learn to understand the market.
Currently, people discovering bitcoin and valuate it at a higher price than the last trade, are important for us.
You're the 3rd person to post a generic statement about how the market price is already a consensus, without actually reading the thread or looking at the link. This is about predicting the future price, that's what the link in the OP is for. I just changed the thread title to make it more clear, my mistake if it confusing. Ok (except I disagree about the consensus). Still, you could say that there is a market for the price in one year in the future minus the current interest rate for that future year interval, and that market is expressed by last price and the order book and the unexpressed valuation vectors (volume@price) that exists in the heads of the actors. A generalization too. If you just want a number, I would say 20x current price in one year. Obvously there is no consensus, what what we can say is that if someone expects a price lower than now, it would not be rational for that person to own bitcoins now. An app is not helpful. It's not necessarily limited to people who own and/or trade bitcoin. You can have an overall consensus including anyone who has a prediction, which would serve more as a general sentiment and less of a technical indicator. Just a different sort of measure, it's not about being right or wrong. |
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No general consensus, only the two parties in the last trade did consent. Edit: Actually, the buyer valued the bitcoins higher than the last price, and the seller valued it lower.
Some of the supply and demand curves you can see in the order books on the bourses. The rest of the aggregated demand and supply is in the heads of the market actors, which are all of humanity.
This is general market dynamics, everybody should learn to understand the market.
Currently, people discovering bitcoin and valuate it at a higher price than the last trade, are important for us.
You're the 3rd person to post a generic statement about how the market price is already a consensus, without actually reading the thread or looking at the link. This is about predicting the future price, that's what the link in the OP is for. I just changed the thread title to make it more clear, my mistake if it was confusing. |
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How does the app generate a consensus, by averaging all the prices users think it should be at?
It's what they think it will be at various times in the future |
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The current consensus is the current price, the market price.
I think everyone understands that. This thread has little to do with the current consensus |
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It's for predictions, i.e. the 1-year price
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http://www.c[Suspicious link removed]m/id/102253282?trknav=homestack:topnews:7#. "The technology has so much potential, and it just cannot be un-invented. Its adoption really is inevitable." I agree with this, but my fear with bitcoin is it wont get fully adopted for a very long time and something better may have come along by then. I hope bitcoin succeeds but if if it doesn't it will likely be something based on it. Why do you fear something better coming along? |
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The thing I'm looking forward to most is democracy on the blockchain. It's obviously a long way off, but voting on political issues directly via a distributed network.
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Define the word "value". What does in mean to us? If you have 320 in fiat and 1 btc which converts to the equivalent amount, ask yourself which one do you think is worth more in term of purchasing power and in terms of actual value measured as hedge against inflation? Market cap is just a representation when you compared it back against fiat. So why bother to use that?
I agree with this. Once bitcoin reaches a certain point it will be almost irrelevant to assign it a fiat spot price. Do we measure emails in terms of how many paper envelopes they can displace? |
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